the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[superdog]

Originally Posted by 77T

So Georgia,Mississippi and Florida finally issued statewide orders to stay at home.


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its comical actually.

I can understand the reluctance of the first few states and its pretty much unprecedented in the US. I had the same reluctance. but for other states to hold out after watching what happened in the northeast.

how in the name of all that is good are these people (any of them) actually obtaining roles of power.

[77T]

Originally Posted by superdog

its comical actually.



I can understand the reluctance of the first few states and its pretty much unprecedented in the US. I had the same reluctance. but for other states to hold out after watching what happened in the northeast.



how in the name of all that is good are these people (any of them) actually obtaining roles of power.

I should have added Nevada in that post, too.

I can appreciate your wonderment after seeing what’s happening next door.


To your last sentence - I recall this quote:
Toute nation a le gouvernement qu'elle mérite. -Joseph de Maistre

In English...
Every nation gets the government it deserves.

It’s apolitical as it applies equally to every nation, and their subdivisions: state, county, city, HOA, and so forth.


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[statsman]

Originally Posted by superdog

its comical actually.

I can understand the reluctance of the first few states and its pretty much unprecedented in the US. I had the same reluctance. but for other states to hold out after watching what happened in the northeast.

how in the name of all that is good are these people (any of them) actually obtaining roles of power.

After watching all the meaningful stats double every three days, and listening to public discourse, I am convinced a number of people lack the ability to multiply by two.

[77T]

Well, as you may know, there are 3 types of lies...which were popularized by Mark Twain...
Lies,
Damned Lies, and...
Statistics


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[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by 77T

Well, as you may know, there are 3 types of lies...which were popularized by Mark Twain...
Lies,
Damned Lies, and...
Statistics


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Burn

[77T]

I just heard about this Lancet report...it was on ABC News tonight.

Covid-19 victims over 60 y.o. With no pre-existing conditions, have a 95% chance of survival.

I searched the Lancet’s website but didn’t find a study using keywords.

Has anyone seen that - it may be old news but hadn’t seen it.


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[77T]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

Burn

Sorry if I offended - are you a statistician?


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[RW16610]

I'm glad to hear more places ordering people to stay home. Hopefully they heed the warnings and help reduce the inevitable burden on frontline healthcare workers.

[Naples09]

FL is easy to understand. They didn't want to shut down during spring break and snowbird season. They need that revenue to survive the rest of the year. Now that spring break ended and most snowbirds left early - time to lock down the state.

[Brew]

52 year old singer/song writer for the Fountains of Wayne has passed due to complications from Coronavirus.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/a...N4lxzSZfEaROjM

I'm afraid it's just beginning.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Naples09

FL is easy to understand. They didn't want to shut down during spring break and snowbird season. They need that revenue to survive the rest of the year. Now that spring break ended and most snowbirds left early - time to lock down the state.

Did FL allow exceptions for people to go to work if they still have jobs?


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[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by 77T

Sorry if I offended - are you a statistician?


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No, but you replied to Statsman... I just thought it was funny

[Naples09]

Originally Posted by 77T

Did FL allow exceptions for people to go to work if they still have jobs?


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Yes, if its considered an essential job. Don't know what essential is for FL - it varies by state.

[77T]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

No, but you relied to Statsman... I just thought it was funny

Thanks it was meant to lighten the load.

Nope - if I wanted to I would have quoted him.

My comment was toward the issue that nobody was believing any stats out of China - by last count about a dozen posts in that vein.

Where a post lands is up to the server.


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[77T]

Originally Posted by Naples09

Yes, if its considered an essential job. Don't know what essential is for FL - it varies by state.

My County has a 1 page order, followed by 4 pages of exceptions. Almost 100 by my count.


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[Fat_ninja]

Let this sink in...

[Solo118]

Originally Posted by 77T

I just heard about this Lancet report...it was on ABC News tonight.

Covid-19 victims over 60 y.o. With no pre-existing conditions, have a 95% chance of survival.

I searched the Lancet’s website but didn’t find a study using keywords.

Has anyone seen that - it may be old news but hadn’t seen it.


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Still, 5% of not surviving if you are above 60 without pre-existing conditions is quite scary. I made sure to tell my parents not to leave the house unless 100% necessary. They live in another state than I do, otherwise I would be picking up groceries and such.

In lighter news, my wife's Grandmother came down with Coronavirus a few weeks back. she is about 75 and has lung cancer. She was brought home last week, recovered. We are thankful that it happened before the NYC hospitals became flooded with people, as she was able to get the care she needed with the proper machines and equipment.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Solo118

Still, 5% of not surviving if you are above 60 without pre-existing conditions is quite scary. I made sure to tell my parents not to leave the house unless 100% necessary. They live in another state than I do, otherwise I would be picking up groceries and such.

In lighter news, my wife's Grandmother came down with Coronavirus a few weeks back. she is about 75 and has lung cancer. She was brought home last week, recovered. We are thankful that it happened before the NYC hospitals became flooded with people, as she was able to get the care she needed with the proper machines and equipment.

That’s very good news regarding her recovery

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by 77T

Thanks it was meant to lighten the load.

Nope - if I wanted to I would have quoted him.

My comment was toward the issue that nobody was believing any stats out of China - by last count about a dozen posts in that vein.

Where a post lands is up to the server.


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I see.

[erhein]

Word went around today that Governor of Arizona, Doug Ducey, had ordered that all alcohol sales be halted as of April 3. Turned out to be an April Fool’s joke. Whew!!!

[Jim Smyth]

Originally Posted by Solo118

Still, 5% of not surviving if you are above 60 without pre-existing conditions is quite scary. I made sure to tell my parents not to leave the house unless 100% necessary. They live in another state than I do, otherwise I would be picking up groceries and such.

In lighter news, my wife's Grandmother came down with Coronavirus a few weeks back. she is about 75 and has lung cancer. She was brought home last week, recovered. We are thankful that it happened before the NYC hospitals became flooded with people, as she was able to get the care she needed with the proper machines and equipment.

Congrats, thats very good news regarding your wife's Grandmother. Do you know if they used the malaria type drugs to help her get through the recovery?

[superdog]

Originally Posted by erhein

Word went around today that Governor of Arizona, Doug Ducey, had ordered that all alcohol sales be halted as of April 3. Turned out to be an April Fool’s joke. Whew!!!

Now that would be an emergency.

[CalSRQ1]

Originally Posted by 77T

My County has a 1 page order, followed by 4 pages of exceptions. Almost 100 by my count.


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yes takeout restaurants are "essential"...thank goodness. Most of these places will be hanging on by the skin of their teeth anyways - closing them for 30 days after the past 3 weeks of basically being closed during peak season would be the death of most places.

I read this (Florida) order to basically give everyone a huge "wakeup everbody- stay at home!" directed at the people still carrying on as though nothing is at stake.

[Star Ferry]

Over 5,000 fellow Americans lost. RIP.

source: https://google.com/covid19-map/

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

Over 5,000 fellow Americans lost. RIP.

source: https://google.com/covid19-map/

It’s horrible, all life is precious.

Something to consider though... approx 8000 people die every day in the US. I understand that’s a big number, but remember covid19 ain’t the only thing killing people...

[DJ39]

End game:

May - start going down and transition
June - some return to normalcy
July and August - too hot for Corina virus but still careful due to person to person transmission
September - anti virals approved just in time for flu season and spike in some cases
October and November - contact tracing and testing catches up in entire country. More effective measures and prep
December - uneasy celebration and time for reflection on the last six month. A prayer for a better 2021
January 2021 - Rolex releases coke GMT ceramic. Rolex forum erupts in celebration


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[DJ39]

My AD told me Rolex will release the first three tone watch having steel, rose gold and yellow gold

; it’s called the Shelter Dweller

Made especially for quarantine and lockdown situations


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[Andad]

Originally Posted by Blansky

That's a good point. One doesn't really think of "how much" one gets when one gets a virus. We seem to think more of, like when we get the flu "bug" that we get it or we don't. We sometimes think more along the lines my immune system may have been a bit down and I caught it.

The how much is definitely a variable that isn't on most peoples radar.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zakalwe View Post
The answer to this is undoubtedly complex and probably not completely understood for what is a new pathogen. I’m certainly no expert in immunology or virology but it’s likely that the variation in severity (which is also seen with seasonal influenza) relates more to the host response than to the virus itself.

When you get an infection you generally feel ill because of the response mounted by your immune system. Some people’s immune systems over-react to the presence of a pathogen and it causes collateral damage and it’s these people that can become seriously unwell. Why do a minority react this way whilst most don’t? Genetics almost certainly plays a part. Certain environmental factors may be at play e.g. smoking. Advanced age degrades every system in your body, including response to infections.

The observation about more young people being affected is related to the increasing number of cases over time. It was never the case that young people could not become seriously unwell (the first notable death of the entire pandemic was a young, healthy Chinese doctor) but simply that their odds are much, much better than older people. Again to analogise with ‘flu - it’s known as a disease that seriously afflicts older people but it certainly does also kill young people - 674 annually in the U.K. in the 15-44 age group according to this:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...63445313003733

It’s just that you never hear about them.


I agree and mentioned this in a previous reply.

Could it just be that some were exposed to a higher viral load due to either multiple exposures or someone in a higher infectious condition?

[Rolexatlast]

Interesting article in the Daily Telegraph:

“This is also the first pre-modern recession since the Second World War. Downturns since the industrial revolution have normally been about monetary policy errors or bubbles going pop. The coronavirus recession is like a war or a crop failure or a natural catastrophe, events that, together with pandemics, have caused the most savage depressions in history.

Drawing on the Bank of England’s Millenium of Macroeconomic Data, Deutsche Bank reminds us that the worst ever recessions were in 1624 (GDP down 25 per cent the year Parliament voted for war against Spain) and 1349 (down 23 per cent during the Black Death). The current downturn – GDP down 6 per cent this year – will only be slightly less severe than those of 1919 and 1921, both connected to war and flu. No “modern” recession has come close. It is also an exceptionally concentrated collapse: the second quarter will be the worst three month period for the economy since records began.

In 1919, those US cities that reopened too soon suffered a worse overall hit to the economy – after the flu returned with a vengeance in a second peak – than those that waited longer in lockdown, according to Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck and Emil Verner.”

[Andad]

Do we have any good news from anywhere?