the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[andyxxx]

Originally Posted by Aquaholic_user

Let's enjoy life and the things we have while they last.SM-N960U

I quite agree.

I am trying to remain positive and am fortunate to have three beautiful girls in my life in our family home – Wife and two teenage daughters.

[superstarmar]

Originally Posted by collarcity

The bulk of the economic damage is already inflicted and catastrophic. May as well continue with the shutdown and isolation measures because having a destroyed economy and mass infections is worse than what we have now.

Life is never going to be the way it was prior to this. Some aspects of life will resume, but I see several things economically and culturally being forever changed and not for the better. You are living through a watershed moment in Western society.

Run for the hills ?

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

From Infectious Disease 101 in med school, these are the possible outcomes in a pandemic. The pandemic ends when it runs out of victims.

1) Person becomes infected, recovers via natural immunity.
2) Person becomes infected, recovers after receiving antiviral agents.
3) Person becomes infected, dies.
4) Person avoids infection after isolating, avoiding infected persons.
5) Person receives vaccine effective against infecting agent

Doc:

1. How does an overwhelmed medical system impact odds of surviving if you need supportive care, not just extreme medical attention like a ventilator.

2. After the first wave of a virus hits, like it has in China, how does this impact the likelihood of transmission if people return to work and practice social distancing, masks and hand washing. That is to say, with less potential carriers are the odds of a second repeat wave this serious diminished?

3. If you do not flatten the curve, does this impact the odds of a first responder dying?

Thanks Joey.

Stay safe.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by andyxxx

Mass infections may equate to a massive death toll but without any infrastructure (because of no economy) we could indeed see mass rioting, civil unrest, and global war – Armageddon.

Anything is possible. And it is also possible that you would see mass rioting and civil unrest if people loose a lot of loved ones and perceive that it was for the sake of money.

Personally, I think that once you fail to fight the good fight because you are afraid of the cost, you can never retake the ground.

Stay safe.

[Phooi]

Originally Posted by Dubshack

Joey this is not to you directly but rather a general expansion of Blanksy’s question based on your response. It appears the whole world must wait for a vaccine in 12-18 months by these options.

With so many countries, and states for that matter, at different stages of quarantine, there is no chance of stopping the spread, unless worldwide travel is completely stopped. I’m talking even travel from state to state. If California reports no new cases for a week, what’s to stop some infected people from another state coming in and starting the whole process over again, and infecting the whole group of people that never got infected during the first wave? What’s the long term plan beyond a month or two of quarantine?

This is why many on this thread are saying, to hell with it, let’s just get back to work. The economy cannot do this for 12-18 months while waiting for a vaccine.

I’m not sure where I fall on the fence. I now know of 2 cases of young healthy fathers (< 42 yrs old) succumbing to COVID-19. Its a scary proposition to open the floodgates, but I’m afraid we are going to have to.


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This is the only ONE of the problems going on. We do not have a coordinated effort to reduce the spread of this virus. Currently, individual states are deciding when they need to shelter in place. This creates the scenario you describe. If we could have the entire country shelter in place, it would give the country to do the following:

- States with low number of cases could slow the spread even faster because 1) people from other states won’t be coming 2) the Small # of people who are currently sick within the state aren’t infecting the large #s of people who aren’t sick 3) the hospitals and healthcare system will have a chance to test, track and treat patients.

- States with high cases like NY, WA, etc. are doing what they are already doing. The hope would be that with the states with low cases will quickly get things under control so resources could be allocated to states that need the most help.

The time of sheltering is completely dependent on the number of cases. If you start with a small number and you control it, your time will be short. For a place like NY, the time will be long because the virus is so widespread.

Also, during this time, hopefully we can get widespread testing and tracing in place so we can identify where the trouble spots are and can do more targeted quarantines. We can’t do that today because we have no idea who is sick. Remember people who look healthy are transmitting the virus to people. Without testing, we can’t tell those people to stay home.

The thing we have to understand is that we are ALL in this together. As much as everyone wants to go back to normal, the world will be a very different place after this and we will hav to adapt. Humans are good at that.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

We will have to agree to disagree. The 1918 epidemic, World War I, World War II, the atomic bombs, the Great Depression, the Holocaust, AIDS, and so many other challenges. The world comes back. People marry, have children, celebrate happy days, build and rebuild societies. I personally don’t see this pandemic as the end of civilization. JMHO.

Agree.

Stay safe.

[Phooi]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Doc:

1. How does an overwhelmed medical system impact odds of surviving if you need supportive care, not just extreme medical attention like a ventilator.

2. After the first wave of a virus hits, like it has in China, how does this impact the likelihood of transmission if people return to work and practice social distancing, masks and hand washing. That is to say, with less potential carriers are the odds of a second repeat wave this serious diminished?

3. If you do not flatten the curve, does this impact the odds of a first responder dying?

Thanks Joey.

Stay safe.

1. Hospital in CA have suspended all elective procedures in preparation of the expected surge of covid cases. This is certainly the case in the hardest hit areas and will be the reality elsewhere once the virus spreads into more states. Unless you have something immediately life threatening, you are going to wait. That’s what people who keep wanting to stop sheltering don’t get, the hospitals are overwhelmed. If we open it up, people will die, not because of covid but from lack of available care.

2. Assuming we get this virus under control, that means the rate of infection drops below 1. For example, if the infection rate is 0.5, then 10 people will only infect 5. Those 5 infects 2.5 and so on. At that point, we can open things up but with all the existing precautions of social distancing, masks, hand washing in place. But things can start to open.

In theory, as a society, we will be more prepared for a second wave. Hopefully, masks, ventilators and testing will be widely available since we just went through this. Hospitals will know how to treat covid patients Better. Maybe we will have some treatments available. If and when the second, third wave hits, people would just know better what to do - wear masks, hand washing, distancing, check our temps, etc.

3. Yes because 1) that person is answering more calls for the virus and 2) they will experience a larger viral load than a normal person. Look at all the fatalities in Italy of health workers. Not all of them are old. Many of them are outside the age criteria yet they still got it and died.

[77T]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

The 1918 epidemic, World War I, World War II, the atomic bombs, the Great Depression, the Holocaust, AIDS, and so many other challenges. The world comes back. People marry, have children, celebrate happy days, build and rebuild societies. I personally don’t see this pandemic as the end of civilization. JMHO.

Of course - in my opinion, you’re right. Any student of history would know the answer is “we move on”. JMHO, too.

Will there be changes? Of course, in my opinion that’ll be true.

Some people will need to change jobs, careers or maybe close a business and find a new one to open.

Somewhere people who never covered a sneeze might change.

Somewhere the ones who washed their hands maybe once a day may change.

Somewhere the ones who buried a loved one or a family member will pass along the learnings (some of which we have yet to learn) to their offspring.

But I hope all will remember this date - and put a reminder on their calendars for this date at this time in 2021.

Revisit Joey’s post on that date - I believe you will be PM’g Joey to say “you were right Doc, thanks for the cool head when many around you were losing theirs.”

OK - if you don’t agree, I respect you

If you’ve been panicky, I understand.

Some of us will never be the same due to financial losses, or a lost business or loved one. I get that. I do hear it in your voices. We hear you. I empathize - I have lost in my life, too.

Spend any free time you have in gaining perspective on your particular plight with stoicism and fortitude.

What’s the alternative? If you delve into nihilism it’s a self-sustaining, destructive perspective injurious to your own emotional stability.

Peace to you and yours and have a good weekend.


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[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by emersm

Maybe some good news out of Pittsburgh?

https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/scient...virus-vaccine/

If it’s 12-18 months , that is a long time.

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by andyxxx

Well it's strange that before this crisis and with a healthy economy there was not "plenty of money for healthcare" - so I'm not sure how you come to that conclusion.

It’s all about priorities. It’s just down to what the country wants to spend it’s money on

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

We will have to agree to disagree. The 1918 epidemic, World War I, World War II, the atomic bombs, the Great Depression, the Holocaust, AIDS, and so many other challenges. The world comes back. People marry, have children, celebrate happy days, build and rebuild societies. I personally don’t see this pandemic as the end of civilization. JMHO.

Yes, but it didn’t come back as before, it changed each time.

In the UK, WW1 destroyed the ‘Downton Abbey’ inherited money class leading to many grand estates opening to the public, and the loss of a generation of young men leading to the Roaring Twenties; WW2 led to the welfare state and the NHS;

In Europe, the Great Depression led to fascism; the Holocaust led to European Convention of Human Rights which led to anti-discrimination laws outlawing racism etc setting up political correctness; WW2 led to the formation of the European Union

All seismic changes for society

[Watch This]

Originally Posted by 77T

Of course - in my opinion, you’re right. Any student of history would know the answer is “we move on”. JMHO, too.

Will there be changes? Of course, in my opinion that’ll be true.

Some people will need to change jobs, careers or maybe close a business and find a new one to open.

Somewhere people who never covered a sneeze might change.

Somewhere the ones who washed their hands maybe once a day may change.

Somewhere the ones who buried a loved one or a family member will pass along the learnings (some of which we have yet to learn) to their offspring.

But I hope all will remember this date - and put a reminder on their calendars for this date at this time in 2021.

Revisit Joey’s post on that date - I believe you will be PM’g Joey to say “you were right Doc, thanks for the cool head when many around you were losing theirs.”

OK - if you don’t agree, I respect you

If you’ve been panicky, I understand.

Some of us will never be the same due to financial losses, or a lost business or loved one. I get that. I do hear it in your voices. We hear you. I empathize - I have lost in my life, too.

Spend any free time you have in gaining perspective on your particular plight with stoicism and fortitude.

What’s the alternative? If you delve into nihilism it’s a self-sustaining, destructive perspective injurious to your own emotional stability.

Peace to you and yours and have a good weekend.


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I really loved your post. I agree 100%.

[cop414]

One California police officer and one Illinois police officer succumbed to the virus which was contracted while on duty.

[Michigan_State]

Originally Posted by andyxxx

Mass infections may equate to a massive death toll but without any infrastructure (because of no economy) we could indeed see mass rioting, civil unrest, and global war – Armageddon.

Easy there, breathe. We’ll get over this, all together.

[chappuy1750]

Originally Posted by cop414

One California police officer and one Illinois police officer succumbed to the virus which was contracted while on duty.

Terrible news. So very sorry and feeling lucky I am able to work from home.

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Doc:

1. How does an overwhelmed medical system impact odds of surviving if you need supportive care, not just extreme medical attention like a ventilator.

2. After the first wave of a virus hits, like it has in China, how does this impact the likelihood of transmission if people return to work and practice social distancing, masks and hand washing. That is to say, with less potential carriers are the odds of a second repeat wave this serious diminished?

3. If you do not flatten the curve, does this impact the odds of a first responder dying?

Thanks Joey.

Stay safe.

Regarding question one, I’ve worked on a few occasions in the past where our emergency department was overwhelmed briefly. We always had the knowledge that soon, the volumes and acuity would return to normal, and that helped us mentally deal with the crush of patients. Animal studies have shown that when faced with overwhelming stress without a way to reduce it, the animals suffered rapid and serious physical and behavioral decline. The healthcare workers in this pandemic face unimaginable stress and a threat to their own life with no relief in the foreseeable future. Depression, PTSD, practice errors and decreased mental acuity will all become common. This combined with shortages of equipment, beds and staff reduces the odds that the seriously ill will get the care they need.

I am no expert in epidemiology, but almost certainly, there will be continued bumps in the numbers of sick and dead patients as time passes until a vaccine becomes widely available. Most likely, many more people than we know of will have immunity to Covid-19 by later this year due to mild or sub-clinical infections, since without widespread testing, no one really knows the denominator of the mortality equation. More immune people means fewer people who get sick with subsequent reappearances of the virus.

I really don’t know the answer to the third question, except to say that the likelihood of more serious infection in anyone increases with viral load, which is influenced by the number of sick patients with whom a healthcare worker comes in contact and by the intensity of that contact, i.e. intubating critically ill people, caring for vent-dependent patients, etc.

[SaddleSC]

Colorado governor just asked all citizens of the state to wear masks in public. This is the first official announcement I have heard of this type, although common sense would dictate that it is a good idea.

[Recondope]

Originally Posted by SaddleSC

Colorado governor just asked all citizens of the state to wear masks in public. This is the first official announcement I have heard of this type, although common sense would dictate that it is a good idea.

Yesterday the Governor advised us to do the same here in California.

It most certainly cannot hurt. And I fully believe that we should have been wearing them since day one however I feel the Gov't did not want a mass run on the masks, especially the N95 since they were already well aware we were in short supply. Just my thought.

[chappuy1750]

Originally Posted by SaddleSC

Colorado governor just asked all citizens of the state to wear masks in public. This is the first official announcement I have heard of this type, although common sense would dictate that it is a good idea.

Gov Wolf announced this today in PA.

https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom...ersal-masking/

[Brenngun]

Originally Posted by Patton250

They are not going to change course. In fact I think there’s very good odds of them extending this well past May 1.

I bet somewhere around April 28th we will see a press conference and the vice president holding up a sign that says “30 more days to kill the virus” or something like that.

I agree. So now that we know this let's all just take a breath, sit back and wait it out.

Originally Posted by erhein

I'm so confused by toilet paper math that I have no idea how much I have.

Originally Posted by HighlandWatch

Africa doesn’t bear thinking about, I agree. Very sad to imagine...

It may already be out of hand but we just haven't heard about it. The largest population of Chinese expats reside in Africa. They are on the verge of owning the economy of 90% of that continent.

Originally Posted by uscmatt99

There is a social contract at stake. Health care providers are risking their lives daily in an attempt to save as many lives as possible. When the public at large gives up their end of the contract in terms of social distancing, that's where a bulk of health care providers will throw in the towel and walk out. And that's not just those caring for COVID-19 patients. Hospitals cannot function without nurses, technologists, environmental services, physicians. This is a problem that was exacerbated by poor decision making and preparedness on the part of government and short-sighted business leaders who had their ears, and dumped in the laps of providers who are now being asked to risk their health and the health of their loved ones.

One of the best posts of all time.

[SkyJuice]

Originally Posted by SaddleSC

Colorado governor just asked all citizens of the state to wear masks in public. This is the first official announcement I have heard of this type, although common sense would dictate that it is a good idea.

Not sure about common sense, but there were folks laughing at me when I wore a mask to the grocery shop last week.

[LandWatch]

I’m reassured the U.K. government are actively considering the exit strategy, and a more balanced approach now. Trade offs will have to be made. I’m sure all other western countries will be doing the same. The relevant paragraph from the article ...

https://apple.news/AC7QtDVPISzqhiidVtmUH_g

Britain has “painted itself into a corner” with no clear exit strategy from the coronavirus epidemic and needs to reconsider herd immunity, according to a senior government adviser.

A prolonged lockdown risks causing more suffering than the virus itself, Graham Medley, the government’s chief pandemic modeller, has warned. He said that the country needed to face the trade-off between harming the young versus the old.

Professor Medley, a member of the key scientific body that is guiding the government’s response, told The Times that Britain must consider allowing people to catch the virus in the least deadly way possible rather than letting unemployment, domestic violence and mental ill health mount indefinitely.

His modelling showed that letting people return to work or reopening schools would allow the pandemic to take off again and no way had been found of easing the lockdown while controlling the virus. Only those working outside might be safe to go back to their jobs, he found.

An antibody test, which the government is hoping will prove a “game-changer”, could help but was not working and such a method had never previously been used to manage an epidemic, he said.

His warning came after 684 more people were confirmed yesterday to have died from the virus in Britain’s biggest daily rise, taking the total to 3,605.

[LandWatch]

Originally Posted by SkyJuice

Not sure about common sense, but there were folks laughing at me when I wore a mask to the grocery shop last week.

People laughing at me would be the least of my concerns!

[Moggo]

Does anyone wake up in the morning and struggle to believe this is all happening?

My mental health is starting to suffer pretty badly, I just can’t take all this in at times. It’s so surreal.


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[Gaijin]

Originally Posted by Moggo

Does anyone wake up in the morning and struggle to believe this is all happening?

My mental health is starting to suffer pretty badly, I just can’t take all this in at times. It’s so surreal.


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Yes. I'm starting to check out from the constant media.

Even this thread.

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by HighlandWatch

I’m reassured the U.K. government are actively considering the exit strategy, and a more balanced approach now. Trade offs will have to be made. I’m sure all other western countries will be doing the same. The relevant paragraph from the article ...

https://apple.news/AC7QtDVPISzqhiidVtmUH_g

Britain has “painted itself into a corner” with no clear exit strategy from the coronavirus epidemic and needs to reconsider herd immunity, according to a senior government adviser.

A prolonged lockdown risks causing more suffering than the virus itself, Graham Medley, the government’s chief pandemic modeller, has warned. He said that the country needed to face the trade-off between harming the young versus the old.

Professor Medley, a member of the key scientific body that is guiding the government’s response, told The Times that Britain must consider allowing people to catch the virus in the least deadly way possible rather than letting unemployment, domestic violence and mental ill health mount indefinitely.

His modelling showed that letting people return to work or reopening schools would allow the pandemic to take off again and no way had been found of easing the lockdown while controlling the virus. Only those working outside might be safe to go back to their jobs, he found.

An antibody test, which the government is hoping will prove a “game-changer”, could help but was not working and such a method had never previously been used to manage an epidemic, he said.

His warning came after 684 more people were confirmed yesterday to have died from the virus in Britain’s biggest daily rise, taking the total to 3,605.

Self absorbed young generation see their issues as more important than anybody else’s

I want, I want, I want

[andyxxx]

Originally Posted by HighlandWatch

I’m reassured the U.K. government are actively considering the exit strategy, and a more balanced approach now. Trade offs will have to be made. I’m sure all other western countries will be doing the same. The relevant paragraph from the article ...

https://apple.news/AC7QtDVPISzqhiidVtmUH_g

Thanks for the link - I am also reassured they are considering alternatives.

[andyxxx]

Originally Posted by Moggo

Does anyone wake up in the morning and struggle to believe this is all happening?

My mental health is starting to suffer pretty badly, I just can’t take all this in at times. It’s so surreal.

Hey Moogo. This crisis is pretty shitty for the whole world. Please try and keep your spirits up.

Sometimes a break from the news or this forum may help?

Otherwise, please try and focus on any positives we may have.
I am thinking about you while typing this and wish you all the best – and all the other contributors that will have times of feeling down.

[SearChart]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

Self absorbed young generation see their issues as more important than anybody else’s

I want, I want, I want

Easy to point a finger at the young generation when it is caused by the parenting of the generation before that

[swatty]

Originally Posted by cop414

One California police officer and one Illinois police officer succumbed to the virus which was contracted while on duty.

Sorry to hear this