It's happening....

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by lear60man

Few thoughts....I agree grey dealers have been around for ever. They just shift their business model to meet current market . In the last few years they have speculating and riding the tide up like most. Back in the day they just traded watches at a margin that was below MSRP or bought from ADs in Hong Kong and sold for a slim profit in other countries. The smart ones will have slimmed down their inventory quietly. The not so smart ones bag about how many millions they have 'in the safe' on youtube.

Crypto is also down 20%? in the last two weeks. Looks like the secondary money markets are all doing the same thing.

Well said. I think you did a great job describing a lot of what’s happening. Thank you.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Personal attack.

That’s an observation not an attack. You have not been able to grasp this free market explanation as to what’s happening.


Let me give you an example of an attack. just to help you out.

“That guy sure is unethical for conducting his business practices in a way I don’t approve.”

That’s a personal attack.

[dwjez14]

I am not typically a gloom and doom guy but I believe a big reset is coming. All across the board and luxury items are going to get hit hard which has been bulletproof last 3-4 years

[dwjez14]

I had said it in another post. When david sw prices adjust that is when I will believe things are cooling down. He is the first to raise prices and the last to lower.

[sxdcfv911]

I think the Watchbox is a 'good idea' and also agree it takes some of the fun out of the chase. It's certainly not a 'bad idea'....I mean here we are talking about it so it does get some attention.

[Njkdog]

Originally Posted by dwjez14

I had said it in another post. When david sw prices adjust that is when I will believe things are cooling down. He is the first to raise prices and the last to lower.

I wouldn’t call that doom and gloom, luxury prices falling would not be so bad. I don’t think it’s gonna affect everything, and I think luxury items will be affected the worst. I think the stock market will be less effective, and I think the housing market will be even less effective than that. But, Watches at the most fun to talk about. Why is David SW so popular? I hadn’t even heard of it until a few days ago, and now I’ve seen 1 million people post about it. And I also recently saw an advertisement for it on here. Before this I typically used crown and caliber or bobs watches.
By the way, have you seen how cheap luxury cars are recently? You can buy a super nice Lamborghini or Ferrari for well under $100,000 aka, the price of two Daytona’s a few months ago lol

[Fleetlord]

Stonks UP today so it's all over.

[rolexandlange]

Originally Posted by dwjez14

I had said it in another post. When david sw prices adjust that is when I will believe things are cooling down. He is the first to raise prices and the last to lower.

DSW is revered in this forum but he has what 500 watches in stock and not all Rolex, and a storefront in Orlando (watch mecca of the future?). He doesn't even do much business on the high end brands.

Hodinkee/Crown&Caliber have 2500 watches in stock, the Watchbox has 2000 and across a broad range of price points. Tourneau is probably buying 200 watches a week. I am not sure this one grey dealer who is popular on these forums is the market mover. You'd probably get a better sense for the market pounding the pavement in HK or on 47th.

[dwjez14]

Don’t get me wrong I love david sw. I just use him as an indicator as to where prices are actually at. I wanted to clarify that he is my go to watch guy. I have bought 6 from him in 3 years. Love David sw


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Tensai]

As fun as it is to say words like "veblen", "China lockdown", "inflation", "beenie baby", "tulip", "crash" and "correction", no one really knows anything. But enjoy trying!

[lear60man]

Originally Posted by rolexandlange

DSW is revered in this forum but he has what 500 watches in stock and not all Rolex, and a storefront in Orlando (watch mecca of the future?). He doesn't even do much business on the high end brands.

Hodinkee/Crown&Caliber have 2500 watches in stock, the Watchbox has 2000 and across a broad range of price points. Tourneau is probably buying 200 watches a week. I am not sure this one grey dealer who is popular on these forums is the market mover. You'd probably get a better sense for the market pounding the pavement in HK or on 47th.

Hitting the streets in HK or 47th is probably a good call. Like you said, the well known Greys only have a few thousand in the safe yet Rolex makes 1 million watches a year. Its the backpack flippers who are feeling this the most.

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by JRell

Inflation was at its peak last month, will start to come down and so will the price of aftermarket Rolex.

Really? I don’t quite get your logic. How did you arrive at that economic forecast

[JRell]

Originally Posted by AJMarcus

Really? I don’t quite get your logic. How did you arrive at that economic forecast

Inflation hit the peak of 8.5%, last month was 8.3%. You will see a dip in gas, houses, used cars, etc. The watch market will follow.

[JadeRaven]

Originally Posted by JRell

Inflation hit the peak of 8.5%, last month was 8.3%. You will see a dip in gas, houses, used cars, etc. The watch market will follow.

That would be a dip in the rate of inflation.

Price on everything is still going up.

[JRell]

Originally Posted by JadeRaven

That would be a dip in the rate of inflation.

Price on everything is still going up.

The raising inflation rate is a result of the higher prices. The ceiling was 8.5%. The “dip” to 8.3% last month was the first sign of the inflation rate lowering, thus a reflection of the prices. If the prices were still going up, so would the inflation rate.

[majidessa]

It is too soon to make any assumptions regarding the future pricing of Rolex watches, prices are soft now and there is no doubt about it but that does not mean it is going to crash, as of now prices have slightly adjusted and are close to what they were in the beginning of the year.

I believe such adjustment is very much needed since pricing has gone really crazy and many people stopped buying as they either no longer can afford it or they have no interest in paying the asking prices, as such the watch market has become so stagnated in last few months that most Grey dealers would actually welcome the drop as it will help them move their inventory. The profit margin that many Grey dealers set is between 20% to 30% depending on model, and prices are down by 10% so they are still well covered and there is some room for prices to go even lower.

Having said that, I believe prices will stabilize within a month or so, and might even go up a little, anyone thinks that the bubble will burst I'm sorry to say that it won't happen any time soon as long as ADs still have empty watch cases for display! ADs still have long waiting lists and even if 50% drop out they won't be able to fulfill especially for hot SS pieces

[worldofoyster]

it's gonna come down more

[Slambonie]

whats harder to get at msrp...a SS daytona or a platinum daytona? I imagine SS many more can be made, but many more people can afford. Platinum far fewer are made but far fewer can afford. Does it essentially balance out? I saw someone post yesterday that an AD said they could get him a PM daytona anytime but SS would be a long wait, so made me wonder

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by majidessa

Having said that, I believe prices will stabilize within a month or so, and might even go up a little, anyone thinks that the bubble will burst I'm sorry to say that it won't happen any time soon as long as ADs still have empty watch cases for display! ADs still have long waiting lists and even if 50% drop out they won't be able to fulfill especially for hot SS pieces

Yeah that’s where my head is at.

Greys, Trusted Sellers, call em what you will can drop a White dial 116500 BNIB to the mid 20k range but good luck getting one at MSRP.

However would it still be nice to not get as I say ‘knocked upside the head’ when buying one Grey and other models in those ranges? Sure. Anything is better than 2-300% over list.

Thankfully I’m pretty much satisfied with my collection other than this 505 so I’m just gonna sit back and see what happens. Good luck to everyone who has to go Grey and I hope all of you get better pricing


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by rolexandlange

DSW is revered in this forum but he has what 500 watches in stock and not all Rolex, and a storefront in Orlando (watch mecca of the future?). He doesn't even do much business on the high end brands.

Hodinkee/Crown&Caliber have 2500 watches in stock, the Watchbox has 2000 and across a broad range of price points. Tourneau is probably buying 200 watches a week. I am not sure this one grey dealer who is popular on these forums is the market mover. You'd probably get a better sense for the market pounding the pavement in HK or on 47th.

Because DSW is focused on mid level watches like Rolex and has every watch he offers for sale in stock for immediate delivery. No shenanigans. If he shows it, he has it plus some...with closer to market pricing. Thats why he gets the attention.

Watchbox goes after the higher end client and they try to control the market on FPJ, LANGE and other esoteric stuff, they also buy a lot of junk,

Crown and Caliber buys ALOT of junk brands that others won't buy and they get stuck with it. Damaged watches. TAGS. Breitlings....etc

That's why they have thousands of watches in inventory.

That's also why they are panicking .

[ajw45]

Originally Posted by rolex16

I said some, not all. And I will call it as I see it. You don’t think hoarding stock to artificially drive up prices is unethical. I do. End of story.

I agree with you. When a grey or any business adds value to a system I think they should be compensated. In the past maybe that meant discounts to MSRP or being able to track down rare pieces no longer in production. When greys are hoarding current production watches to manipulate supply and pricing to end customers they are not adding value and just create a market inefficiency for their own benefit the cost of which is passed onto the customer.

It's not illegal, I think it is unethical but market manipulation is so pervasive in our society it's tough to throw stones, objectively though it is unnecessary self serving valueless friction in the market that I would like to see die in a fire.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by JRell

Inflation hit the peak of 8.5%, last month was 8.3%. You will see a dip in gas, houses, used cars, etc. The watch market will follow.

Did the Rolex aftermarket pricing reflect general inflation over the past 12 months? I think not. They aren't potatoes.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by rolex16

More like any reasonable and ethical person would disagree with. But keep going with the personal attacks. That’s what people that have no real argument to make do.

You accused me in a similar thread of "trying to prop up a falling market with false narratives for their own benefit" i.e. lying. I think you are the one who is resorting to personal attacks, and it isn't appreciated.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Tensai

As fun as it is to say words like "veblen", "China lockdown", "inflation", "beenie baby", "tulip", "crash" and "correction", no one really knows anything. But enjoy trying!

Maybe, but they all show the going up can't last forever and that is about as close to certain as one can get. The only real debate is when and where and lets not forget, no one needs wrist watches and the majority here likely use their phone truth be told.

[lear60man]

Originally Posted by majidessa

It is too soon to make any assumptions regarding the future pricing of Rolex watches, prices are soft now and there is no doubt about it but that does not mean it is going to crash, as of now prices have slightly adjusted and are close to what they were in the beginning of the year.

I believe such adjustment is very much needed since pricing has gone really crazy and many people stopped buying as they either no longer can afford it or they have no interest in paying the asking prices, as such the watch market has become so stagnated in last few months that most Grey dealers would actually welcome the drop as it will help them move their inventory. The profit margin that many Grey dealers set is between 20% to 30% depending on model, and prices are down by 10% so they are still well covered and there is some room for prices to go even lower.

Having said that, I believe prices will stabilize within a month or so, and might even go up a little, anyone thinks that the bubble will burst I'm sorry to say that it won't happen any time soon as long as ADs still have empty watch cases for display! ADs still have long waiting lists and even if 50% drop out they won't be able to fulfill especially for hot SS pieces

I wish I had your optimism, but there are too many markets tanking right now, used luxury watches arent protected. China under lockdown IMHO is a major factor in this realm. What will those people do if and when, they get let loose? Will they go on a buying spree (doubtful) or sell/hold. I could only imagine smaller investors over there not being able to leave their apartment to ship a watch while watching their inventory go down in value day by day. 400 million are out of the market right now in China....thats a big chunk.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by ajw45

I agree with you. When a grey or any business adds value to a system I think they should be compensated. In the past maybe that meant discounts to MSRP or being able to track down rare pieces no longer in production. When greys are hoarding current production watches to manipulate supply and pricing to end customers they are not adding value and just create a market inefficiency for their own benefit the cost of which is passed onto the customer.

It's not illegal, I think it is unethical but market manipulation is so pervasive in our society it's tough to throw stones, objectively though it is unnecessary self serving valueless friction in the market that I would like to see die in a fire.

Thank you, and very well stated.

[Calatrava r]

The only folks who get hurt in this used watch market are those who bought at the very top. The dealers will be fine. Their "buy" prices dropped long before the "sell" prices softened. Any savvy dealer knew the recent spike up was not sustainable.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

You accused me in a similar thread of "trying to prop up a falling market with false narratives for their own benefit" i.e. lying. I think you are the one who is resorting to personal attacks, and it isn't appreciated.

Untrue. I said “These people” in response to a post that was referring to this group which you are not even in: “No sense trolling people who bought grey in the last couple years.” Never singled you or anyone else out. And that comment was only referring to the subset of that group that are trying to influence the market with a narrative that most can plainly see is untrue at this point.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by ajw45

I agree with you. When a grey or any business adds value to a system I think they should be compensated. In the past maybe that meant discounts to MSRP or being able to track down rare pieces no longer in production. When greys are hoarding current production watches to manipulate supply and pricing to end customers they are not adding value and just create a market inefficiency for their own benefit the cost of which is passed onto the customer.

It's not illegal, I think it is unethical but market manipulation is so pervasive in our society it's tough to throw stones, objectively though it is unnecessary self serving valueless friction in the market that I would like to see die in a fire.

I actually think the used market is what it is and its prices are set by supply and demand. If folks did not flip their watches there be none for sale except at ADs, so only the very select few could ever obtain one. The used market makes the watches available to everyone, but at market price. The value added is the ability to buy an otherwise unobtainable watch at the moment. For many models the markup used is very little and it makes sense to buy. Clearly, the 3x MSRP models should scare everybody, but apparantly not those with very deep pockets and a lust for immediate gratification.

[Al1969]

Originally Posted by rambo99

22.5? pound or us dollar?

Here's one posted on TRF.https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=853971