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Old 2 January 2019, 12:26 AM   #1
sdh1980
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5711 in a bubble or the new norm?

Hi all

Iíve decided to buy a white dial 5711 as my first Patek and also accepted that Iíll need to buy on the grey market

As we all know, the prices have sky rocketed in the last year in particular. Do you guys think this is the new normal for this model or do you feel they will come down slightly again. They are currently between £35-40k upward in the UK

Watchfinder has even been advertising 5711ís for more than 5712ís

Thanks in advance
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Old 2 January 2019, 12:32 AM   #2
danestaff
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congrats on your choice if you can find 1

watchfinder can ask what they want but they have had 4 of them sitting there for months, so make them an offer

but there is another thread on the go called THE MINSKY MOMENT, u might wanna take a look
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Old 2 January 2019, 12:35 AM   #3
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I think prices have topped out. However, there's a reason its called a bubble. You could wait six months and see a drop or increase. If you are planning on keeping it, it doesn't matter what you pay.
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Old 2 January 2019, 12:42 AM   #4
rolexpatek363
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I'm predicting a further doubling in price over the next 18 months.

It's just a bit of fun.
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Old 2 January 2019, 12:47 AM   #5
tyler1980
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its a very nice watch.... at retail or even at the new +20% retail you can sort of justify it.

I would never want it that bad to pay secondary prices. I just don't think its that awesome.
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Old 2 January 2019, 12:49 AM   #6
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Sorry, but If you're considering dropping $45,000 on a 5711, the price coming down a bit can't matter all that much. If you are ready to own the watch, I say buy it now! The bottom of the gray market is unlikely to fall out over the next year. Personally, I wouldn't pay over MSRP.

THE MINSKY MOMENT thread will reveal none of us know jack about what the future holds.
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Old 2 January 2019, 01:33 AM   #7
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I agree with them. ^. We dont know jack and i wouldnt pay above retail
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Old 2 January 2019, 01:46 AM   #8
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all this talk of bubbles = we are in midst of slow bursting bubble, where some things can still spike and yet the overall trend is bust off an ultra-synthetic boom.
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Old 2 January 2019, 01:48 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by tyler1980 View Post
its a very nice watch.... at retail or even at the new +20% retail you can sort of justify it.

I would never want it that bad to pay secondary prices. I just don't think its that awesome.
I have to agree.

Iím not in the market as itís out of my price range, but I just donít see the value at gray prices. The same can be said for many of the SS Rolex models
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Old 2 January 2019, 01:59 AM   #10
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40k GBP is too much for a 5711a IMO.
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Old 2 January 2019, 02:06 AM   #11
tyler1980
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I have to agree.

I’m not in the market as it’s out of my price range, but I just don’t see the value at gray prices. The same can be said for many of the SS Rolex models
You have the BLRO so you can probably relate but i feel the same way about it and the 5711...

When i didn't have it sure maybe I would entertain a premium. Once you own it you know its not worth the premium, and retail is fine. And doing it all over again I would never have chosen the premium route to get it sooner.

Nothing against the watch but people are buying into the idea that its something more than it is. On your wrist that goes away really quick. Still a great watch, but its not the watch driving this, it's the need to buy something you cant get.
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Old 2 January 2019, 02:19 AM   #12
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I think PP steel nautilus queued with the Rolex steel Daytona. I remember when Grays were offering BNIB Daytona's at 17 to 18k. They are now offering at 21 to 22k.
Low production=high desirability.
I remember reading threads, "crazy to pay over msrp" back then.
As s.m.b. stated above, I'm paraphrasing, "if your gonna spend that much on a watch, does it really matter".
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Old 2 January 2019, 02:20 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by tyler1980 View Post
You have the BLRO so you can probably relate but i feel the same way about it and the 5711...

When i didn't have it sure maybe I would entertain a premium. Once you own it you know its not worth the premium, and retail is fine. And doing it all over again I would never have chosen the premium route to get it sooner.

Nothing against the watch but people are buying into the idea that its something more than it is. On your wrist that goes away really quick. Still a great watch, but its not the watch driving this, it's the need to buy something you cant get.
I agree wholeheartedly

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Old 2 January 2019, 02:27 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tyler1980 View Post
you have the blro so you can probably relate but i feel the same way about it and the 5711...

When i didn't have it sure maybe i would entertain a premium. Once you own it you know its not worth the premium, and retail is fine. And doing it all over again i would never have chosen the premium route to get it sooner.

Nothing against the watch but people are buying into the idea that its something more than it is. on your wrist that goes away really quick. Still a great watch, but its not the watch driving this, it's the need to buy something you cant get.
this is so so true!!
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Old 2 January 2019, 02:53 AM   #15
rolexpatek363
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all this talk of bubbles = we are in midst of slow bursting bubble, where some things can still spike and yet the overall trend is bust off an ultra-synthetic boom.
You seem very certain about this, but how are you so certain? I freely admit I'm guessing about the future, but my guess is a "fun" guess. It would be so funny if the prices kept on going up.
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Old 2 January 2019, 03:40 AM   #16
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Bubble, I'd guess, and here's why. When I was researching steel sport watches ten years ago, I encountered a lot of watch nerds who said the Nautilus was just an overpriced Royal Oak wannabe. Royal Oak -- or even better, Royal Oak jumbo -- or go home. And it was much harder to find a jumbo than Nautilus at the time, at least in my neck of the woods

I liked the 5711 and bought one anyway (back when you could still find them behind dealer glass), but felt like I was going against conventional wisdom by doing so, and that's obviously since changed. But the baseline was "meh" for decades and things will ultimately regress to the mean.

The problem is when they will regress to the mean is unknowable. I feel your pain a bit because I want an aquanaut but mid twenties for one is nauseatingly expensive for what you get.
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Old 2 January 2019, 04:10 AM   #17
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What I've learned from Momentum markets is to never call a top, that's just gambling and far more money is lost selling early than just after a crash. However prices in a watch market can't really crash they will only slowly be lowered by greys as the market really moves consistently against them and they are forced to accept the happy days are over, so it's not a bubble but more like a balloon that slowly deflates, and thus there will be more insulation if you do end up buying near a top and you will have time to sell if you have to. Having said that the premiums now seem mighty high and I could not justify buying at these levels.
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Old 2 January 2019, 04:35 AM   #18
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OP, if you want it and can afford it, go for it. Unless you plan to sell it shortly you shouldn't worry about it.

People have different opinions, people not willing to pay over MSRP are content waiting in line or never owning the watch altogether. Sounds like you're not on that camp which is ok too.

No right answer here, it's a personal choice.
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Old 2 January 2019, 04:35 AM   #19
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Grey market prices for the 5711 seem to have plateaued and as mentioned above WF has 4 of them sitting there for some time.

5711 is a very nice watch but to me not worth the current grey market price. You can get a Patek with a complication for that price.
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Old 2 January 2019, 04:47 AM   #20
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Reality is nobody knows, if you had posted a question here 18 months ago about where the prices would go, I think very few would have predicted they would go to $50k...

In a world where Apollo XXIII Snoopy Speedmasters are selling for $25k...
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Old 2 January 2019, 04:47 AM   #21
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theyve been sitting at high 40s/low 50s for awhile on chrono24. id wait for sihh new releases and peoples attention diverting to new watches to start the year, that could be the catalyst to cause people to start listing at 45 and then lower 40s
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Old 2 January 2019, 05:07 AM   #22
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You seem very certain about this, but how are you so certain? I freely admit I'm guessing about the future, but my guess is a "fun" guess. It would be so funny if the prices kept on going up.
looking at biz cycles, debt, bonds, real estate, over 20 trill in coordinated global QE [not counting shadow QE] since 09, and the current QT unwind, NIRP/ZIRP, hiking rates for now, insane and unprecedented corp buybacks, etc etc etc - what the central planners have done off of their last GFC bubble is insane. all ponzi schemes eventually end. i am certainly not certain of exact date, but we are surely approaching the end of this nonsense.
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Old 2 January 2019, 05:13 AM   #23
rolexpatek363
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looking at biz cycles, debt, bonds, real estate, over 20 trill in coordinated global QE [not counting shadow QE] and the current QT tendencies, NIRP/ZIRP, hiking rates for now, insane and unprecedented corp buybacks, etc etc etc - what the central planners have done off of their last GFC bubble is insane. all ponzi schemes eventually end. i am certainly not certain of exact date, but we are surely approaching the end of this nonsense.
No-one knows for sure, though, do they?

If you really knew what was about to happen in the markets, you wouldn't be spending any time on the forum. I'm not saying you are wrong, just that no-one actually knows, and this is all speculation.
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Old 2 January 2019, 05:15 AM   #24
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No-one knows for sure, though, do they?

If you really knew what was about to happen in the markets, you wouldn't be spending any time on the forum. I'm not saying you are wrong, just that no-one actually knows, and this is all speculation.
there is a difference between speculation and data-driven projections, no?

and what does being on a forum have to do w/ upcoming crash? strange...

[edit: you do realize that there were people that saw the last bubble a mile away and made huge bets that were experiencing major convexity up to the point they paid off hugely? some ppl see what is really happening and they get mocked by those that can't see or won't see what is brewing, thinking that happy days will never end and that this time really is different.]
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Old 2 January 2019, 05:32 AM   #25
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there is a difference between speculation and data-driven projections, no?

and what does being on a forum have to do w/ upcoming crash? strange...

[edit: you do realize that there were people that saw the last bubble a mile away and made huge bets that were experiencing major compression up to the point they paid off hugely? some ppl see what is really happening and they get mocked by those that can't see or won't see what is brewing, thinking that happy days will never end and that this time really is different.]
I've been waiting since 2016... I'm doing some 2019 savings, hoping for a 2020 burst.

For the OP on 5711... Don't expect to see the drop that you'd see in an economic crash. Volatility wouldn't hit a watch market the same way. People with liquid would see this as a gain to pick up more pieces. In all fairness, I'm hoping for this crash in the hopes that the waitlist for my Pateks (as I'm on the list for every sport model including 5740) will get shortened. That being said, it's a far cry and wishful thinking.
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Old 2 January 2019, 05:47 AM   #26
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I never liked the Aquanaut until it became hard to obtain. For some reason, I've started to want one. I have however always liked the Nautilus line.
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Old 2 January 2019, 06:23 AM   #27
rolexpatek363
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there is a difference between speculation and data-driven projections, no?

and what does being on a forum have to do w/ upcoming crash? strange...

[edit: you do realize that there were people that saw the last bubble a mile away and made huge bets that were experiencing major convexity up to the point they paid off hugely? some ppl see what is really happening and they get mocked by those that can't see or won't see what is brewing, thinking that happy days will never end and that this time really is different.]
What data-driven projections do you have? People can guess (speculate), but that's it. Anyone saying otherwise is selling something!

The point I was making is that if you knew the future, you'd be making money out of it, rather than participating in a forum.
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Old 2 January 2019, 06:45 AM   #28
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Don’t worry too much about bubbles and MSRP and premiums. Everybody pays market price one way or another. If you have the means then buy it now. You don’t want to end up like the guy waiting for 2 years and hoping for something to happen in two more. For what? A heart attack?
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Old 2 January 2019, 06:49 AM   #29
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[edit: you do realize that there were people that saw the last bubble a mile away and made huge bets that were experiencing major convexity up to the point they paid off hugely? some ppl see what is really happening and they get mocked by those that can't see or won't see what is brewing, thinking that happy days will never end and that this time really is different.]
The problem, which many people found out, is that the market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay liquid. Lots of people went short in 2006 and got washed away.
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Old 2 January 2019, 07:02 AM   #30
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The problem, which many people found out, is that the market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay liquid. Lots of people went short in 2006 and got washed away.

Evn the smart ones...
One of my old boss/friend kept writing calls in 2006 through 2007.. his 2 bil HF went to $125 mil. That was not good. Not a chunp neither, At his prime he managed one of Fidelity’s biggest mutual funds.
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