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Old 16 March 2018, 08:27 PM   #61
mountainjogger
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Originally Posted by joli160 View Post
Look what happened to the Rolex bubble backs. People who bought these for top dollar not so long ago lost their investment.

Antiques prices in general are on a all time low. Frisian clocks i.e. of which I bought and sold a lot would go for 3-4000 Euro. In the current market I can buy the same for 250 Euro.

At this time vintage is hot and perhaps a bit hyped, but you will never know what the future will bring.
Buy what you like to wear and forget about long term investment
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Old 18 March 2018, 09:15 PM   #62
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Nice to have a crystal ball I guess.

2 quotes here, one I agree with, one I don't, but all just opinions, nothing more, no-one actually knows.

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Originally Posted by DLRIDES View Post
Bingo ! Anything smaller than 38mm will be a waste of time in the next few years.

Vintage watch market as a whole, has approximately 30 -50 year life span left. A different technology will replace the current market. Remember those things called pocket watches ?
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Old 19 March 2018, 01:44 AM   #63
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in regards to this thread, I think the only thing all of us can do is look at the trends over the years, to help gauge what "might" happen. But we also need to prepare for the worst as well. We can look at these trends and have answers to the "why".

stamps, comic books, pocket watches, bubble backs, are just a few examples of things that were extremely hot and important, but today, not so much.

For example: less people collect stamps today which is why there isn't much of a market.

I personally feel that great and historically important examples will always remain valuable and important no matter the market. You can apply this to any luxury collectable.

I think moving forward to the next generation of collectors; it's human nature to yearn for luxury item's.. There will always be things like jewelry (watches included) cars, houses, boats, planes etc that are status symbols. As long as these luxury company's continue to evolve with the times, they will always remain relevant and important.

The real question is, when these company's evolve with the times, what will that do to the counterparts desirability?

No one knows. However, I have a theory.

In the early days, rolex was experimenting with the market and with many different models that are no longer made.

Today, Rolex is an established powerhouse that has it's foundations settled. They stick to their roots and keep to their classic and timeless designs. When they make a change or an update, they are so small, sometimes we cannot even see the change. This is why rolex has remained so strong.

This includes all the valuable vintage sports models we speak of today. These vintage sports models are the golden era of rolex design, that is why rolex holds their designs so close to this day.

So with that being said, how could these 1680's 5513's 1675's etc. etc. ever become irrelevant? Unless rolex stops producing submariners, I am not ever going to worry about my vintage subs.. Just my thoughts on the matter, but not fact by any means.
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Old 1 April 2018, 02:26 PM   #64
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There are so many better and more interesting ways to invest than a watch. And I say that as a watch collector.

A watch should come last, meaning after you’ve put a ton of money away into your retirement fund that will allow you to retire early and well. After putting enough into your kids’ 529 that will allow them to go to the most overpriced private colleges. After real estate. Even after angel investing in that startup that wants to be the next Uber for (fill in the blank).

I think only after you’ve spent your year’s money in all those investments should you “invest” in a Rolex watch. Cover those other bases first. It is after all a luxury item.

And even then, just buy it to enjoy it. That is the luxury, that you spend this enormous amount of money on something that may or may not retain its value.

Having said all that, rarity and condition I think are the biggest factors for future value potential. Later Rolex that’s been mass produced at modern volumes will be at a disadvantage. Stuff in bad condition may not pan out if charming patina falls out of taste.



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Old 2 April 2018, 01:05 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by JLJL View Post
There are so many better and more interesting ways to invest than a watch. And I say that as a watch collector.

A watch should come last, meaning after you’ve put a ton of money away into your retirement fund that will allow you to retire early and well. After putting enough into your kids’ 529 that will allow them to go to the most overpriced private colleges. After real estate. Even after angel investing in that startup that wants to be the next Uber for (fill in the blank).

I think only after you’ve spent your year’s money in all those investments should you “invest” in a Rolex watch. Cover those other bases first. It is after all a luxury item.

And even then, just buy it to enjoy it. That is the luxury, that you spend this enormous amount of money on something that may or may not retain its value.

Having said all that, rarity and condition I think are the biggest factors for future value potential. Later Rolex that’s been mass produced at modern volumes will be at a disadvantage. Stuff in bad condition may not pan out if charming patina falls out of taste.



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rolex is a wearable investment that you can wear and enjoy without depreciation. Not many other investment grade items you can do that with. I watch becomes a part of you when you wear it. It's hard to explain, but its true.

that's why these investment topics come up from time to time.
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Old 2 April 2018, 01:08 AM   #66
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Without a shadow of a doubt the references I covet will appreciate quicker than I can put the funds together to buy them... same old same old!
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Old 2 April 2018, 05:31 AM   #67
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It would be cool if the mods made a poll of the references listed here. How do you guys go about pricing your vintage watches you are looking to buy? All I know to do is watch tons of ebay listings and look at private dealer pricing. There is obviously a lot of factors that makes price difficult to nail down with dial/hands/case condition etc.
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Old 2 April 2018, 09:54 PM   #68
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Without a shadow of a doubt the references I covet will appreciate quicker than I can put the funds together to buy them... same old same old!
Scientist have verified that this a communicable disease. Spread by posting on this forum. Sorry but there is no cure.
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Old 1 May 2018, 02:37 AM   #69
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I think the 116520 is a tremendous buy right now if you're thinking Daytona.
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Old 1 May 2018, 03:38 AM   #70
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"What are some of the high potential vintage Rolex investment?" Personally, I believe the same ones that are now coveted by collectors. I don't see any "dark horse" vintage models making any headway in the future. For the classics, I like the GMT 16700, GMT II 16710 and the Submariner 16610LV anniversary sets. Buy well and buy 'em all.
I always find it interesting to see folks say that the 16700 and 16710 are future classics but they always leave out the 16760, which in many respects is a bit more interesting.
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Old 1 May 2018, 07:45 PM   #71
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I think the 116520 is a tremendous buy right now if you're thinking Daytona.
I'd imagine it'll be a rather long term view as the 116520 was only stopped 2-3 years ago? Last Zenith batch was in 2000?

I'm curious if the current 116500 is harder to find (vs 116520) in the grey market. The waiting list at ADs is quite insane.
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Old 17 July 2019, 12:18 PM   #72
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Rootbeer

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any zenith daytona. 1675 pepsi. Root beer???
got a stunning rootbeer tiger eye judt been serviced by rolex
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Old 17 July 2019, 03:02 PM   #73
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4 digit datejusts
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Old 18 July 2019, 01:29 AM   #74
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16760....because I believe it has room to grow in value, thicker case than the popular 16710 and a shorter run time.
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Old 18 July 2019, 10:54 PM   #75
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4 digit datejusts
Already own a few of the watches that has gone up in price beyond comprehension last couple of years. I just bought a four digit datejust. It´s the only model I´ve been thinking of buying lately. Not as investments but to use daily. As people getting more aware about the vintage prices of the 5513, 1665, 1675 and so on. The risk of getting the wrong kind of attention is higher than ever. I used to think you could walk around in a dressed down 5513. Those days are gone with all attention on social media. I wonder how long it takes when you no longer can dress down a 1601. I actually hope that the prices don´t move any more. I could not care less if they dropped. Than people could use them for what they are and really appreciate them. I never bought any of the vintage Rolex as investments. More like something you could use, and still get your money back more or less after a few years instead of having the money on an savings account. In those days most people bought the newest model they could find or a fake. The only fake watch of vintage models where the Paul Newman Daytona era Daytonas. Apart from that you never knew if people you met had a real Rolex of the fake version of one.
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Old 18 July 2019, 11:12 PM   #76
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Originally Posted by joli160 View Post
Look what happened to the Rolex bubble backs. People who bought these for top dollar not so long ago lost their investment.

Antiques prices in general are on a all time low. Frisian clocks i.e. of which I bought and sold a lot would go for 3-4000 Euro. In the current market I can buy the same for 250 Euro.

At this time vintage is hot and perhaps a bit hyped, but you will never know what the future will bring.
Buy what you like to wear and forget about long term investment
Very well said.
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Old 19 July 2019, 12:14 AM   #77
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16760....because I believe it has room to grow in value, thicker case than the popular 16710 and a shorter run time.
More importantly, the first GMT II.
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Old 19 July 2019, 02:22 AM   #78
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I agree with the "buy what you like and forget about investment" viewpoint. The truth is that no one knows what the future values will be like. In the end, everything is only worth what others are willing to pay for it.

As another poster said, values of collectibles are often highly correlated to one's generation. As an example, I have a baseball card collection from my pre-teens that I thought I'd sell for a fortune one day. I recently looked into what they're worth, and they're worth about the same as they were in the '80s, and that doesn't take into account inflation! Younger generations just aren't that interested in them.

Another example is cars, which are also items that you can enjoy and that can increase in value. Pre-WW2 cars used to be worth a lot more, but then the guys who really like them (those who remembered them from their childhoods) passed on. Same for '60s muscle cars. Watch Barrett-Jackson auctions and see who's buying those cars -- all Q-tips.

IMO, if you want an investment, go with a traditional investment vehicle, like stocks, bonds, and real estate. If the watches you buy increase in value, great. Just don't count on them to do so for your retirement.
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Old 19 July 2019, 03:05 AM   #79
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I used to think you could walk around in a dressed down 5513. Those days are gone with all attention on social media

couldn't disagree more - nobody is looking at your watch, and watch geeks are a tiny percentage of the general population.
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Old 19 July 2019, 04:02 AM   #80
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Buy what you like and wait...

I paid $1225 for this in 2001 :)
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Old 20 July 2019, 05:02 AM   #81
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My two penny thoughts are:

Seadweller 116600 and Chromalight Daytona 116520.

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Old 14 December 2019, 02:38 PM   #82
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I think if we look back to the start of this thread and note the date (March 18) compared to now (Dec 19) the 16601LV has probably increased the most and continues to do so.
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Old 14 December 2019, 04:21 PM   #83
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6263 are undervalued. Although John Mayer does own one.
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Old 14 December 2019, 09:18 PM   #84
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6263 are undervalued. Although John Mayer does own one.
Lol

Best of luck with that.
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Old 14 December 2019, 09:21 PM   #85
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Originally Posted by joli160 View Post
Look what happened to the Rolex bubble backs. People who bought these for top dollar not so long ago lost their investment.

Antiques prices in general are on a all time low. Frisian clocks i.e. of which I bought and sold a lot would go for 3-4000 Euro. In the current market I can buy the same for 250 Euro.

At this time vintage is hot and perhaps a bit hyped, but you will never know what the future will bring.
Buy what you like to wear and forget about long term investment
Agree. Bubble backs are a good example.
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Old 14 December 2019, 09:29 PM   #86
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Agree. Bubble backs are a good example.
The big reason they are outdated is the size. A lot will have to change to make 30-32mm watches hot again. Even if trends are important I think sizes between 36-40mm are fairly safe. If bubblebacks were bigger they would still cost money. They are just not wearable for a normal person.
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Old 15 December 2019, 02:02 AM   #87
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Best Vintage Rolex Investment you should buy now.

I’m not making a case that vintage Rolex pieces are an investment but I foresee the problem for the market within which these pieces gain value and lose value alternatively.

I believe the gross market is capped by a relatively small amount of collectors (compared to the total market of Rolex buyers). When that happens money will move between choices with some selling of less attractive pieces below the highs they had reached earlier. This is the case for bubbleback retreating due to collectors cashing in their gains on them to fund acquisition of the current “hot buys”.

If the market had new money coming in, then highs across the board could be possible. But I believe it is a relatively closed system of selling/buying. As a result, and with inventories being fixed, values respond in a highly correlated elastic manner. This is unlike a market with many new entrants where prices can respond differently.

Going back to bubblebacks for a minute...
It might be possible to float their values upward without diluting the values of other vintage models. I agree their size currently hurts values among the collectors who are, by-and-large, male.

But if a female luminary began sporting a few of them, and doing an interview here or there about their historic connections - then it might drag in a lot of new money because the size isn’t as much of an issue.

I call that type of new money phenomenon the :BTC: Bitcoin effect. :BTC: brought many new buyers into a market who weren’t commodity, currency or equity investors. The new entrants had just been consumers spending wads of cash on millennial toys and baubles. The value of other products in the currency markets didn’t dip a jot due to the new :BTC: buyers because that market’s long entrenched investors/speculators/hedgers stayed put within their comfort zone on existing products.

So bubbleback owners may still see gains if some influencer decides to flaunt/hype them online. “Calling All Kardashians” may be your best strategy!

All just my 2¢ (yeah, ¢ - no :BTC: in my pocket)


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Old 15 December 2019, 02:13 AM   #88
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The big reason they are outdated is the size. A lot will have to change to make 30-32mm watches hot again. Even if trends are important I think sizes between 36-40mm are fairly safe. If bubblebacks were bigger they would still cost money. They are just not wearable for a normal person.
And for the most part they look nothing like what Rolex is producing today.

The sport watches have really not changed that much since they first came out.
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Old 15 December 2019, 02:40 AM   #89
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Overall watches as an investment is only valid on a very high level where objects are truly rare. Buying what most of us have and enjoy shouldn’t be looked at as investments. These watches are available in high volumes and prices can shift in any direction depending on trends and finacial cycles.

There’s a huge difference in investment potential buying a perfect big crown or buying a perfect matte sports model. Even looking at the vintage Daytona market it is clear that uniqueness is what drives value. A PN Daytona is still very common and this is why prices have fallen back quite a lot from previous levels.
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Old 15 December 2019, 05:17 AM   #90
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You still can't go wrong with a perfect 6263...just go for the great ones, not the ok ones if you care about investment. Many contemporary celebs have them as well so they should continue to remain popular for a while. I feel like some of the subs and GMTs can get lost once they get really expensive.
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