the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[joeychitwood]

I have no desire to argue with you, Seth. For me, I have to believe someone. I choose to believe the scientists. I fully realize the science is not exact. But I think their assessment is made on the basis of available information and data without political bias or agendas. I placed my faith in the science of medicine for 30 years. It’s all I had.

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by superdog

FWIW, I have a hard time believing a lot of “experts”. On both side of the coin.

In this situation, I suppose we will see, as other nations certainly won’t be practicing the same regulations.

I too struggle with believing the numbers. To hit 200K we would need to average over 1300 deaths a day for five months or 1600 per day for 4 months. Is that plausible? I understand there is a surge coming but still that is a lot of people. I am trying to wrap my head around this and can't.

Meanwhile some people (experts I suppose) are saying that we may be close to leveling off in some parts which makes this theory even more challenging.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

I have no desire to argue with you, Seth. For me, I have to believe someone. I choose to believe the scientists. I fully realize the science is not exact. But I think their assessment is made on the basis of available information and data without political bias or agendas. I placed my faith in the science of medicine for 30 years. It’s all I had.

with good reason.

but this is different. this is unprecedented. and while certainly we need people such as yourself working on the science of medicine, we also need to be evaluating the effects of the solution and finding an approach that, very very unfortunately, does include the sad fact that people as individuals just might not as important as people as a whole.

[joeychitwood]

I would love to be more positive. But we’ve seen the virus devastating cities one by one. There is no reason to think that the virus will not continue its march across the continent. It’s a slow motion disaster.

A pandemic ends when it runs out of victims through death, immunity, antiviral drugs, inability to infect new victims or vaccines. We won’t see the end until the five factors play out fully.

[77T]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Over the other options which would likely result in an out of control society? Yes I would. It’s unfortunate but we can’t shutdown the country completely because of the at risk population which is a very small number. Let those folks stay home as long as they want while younger able bodied Americans get the economy going as best we can to avoid disaster. Again this isn’t all all or nothing situation. There are solutions.

Well you have every right to that opinion - and it is trending...

https://www.businessinsider.com/mill...-reddit-2020-3

Now, if your opinion is driven by the numbers, then you may want to revisit the numbers. Boomers are not a small number.

Generation Z, or those born after 1997, made up the largest generation over 90 million. The Baby Boomer generation make up the second largest generation, with just over 72 million. (That’s as of 2018 stats) By age alone Baby Boomers are at risk.

Then you must calculate how many Gen Z have preexisting conditions like diabetes, high blood pressure, obesity, asthma, etc. So even a 10% “at risk” in the Gen Z cohort makes the total at risk pool about even.

Again not attacking your opinion just sharing the underlying assumptions of generational differences.


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[Boothroyd]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

I would love to be more positive. But we’ve seen the virus devastating cities one by one. There is no reason to think that the virus will not continue its march across the continent. It’s a slow motion disaster.

A pandemic ends when it runs out of victims through death, immunity, antiviral drugs, inability to infect new victims or vaccines. We won’t see the end until the five factors play out fully.

I would like to be more positive also. Mayo Clinic is making progress on an antibody test, but from what I hear from a PhD contact at the U of M, buckle in for the long haul.

[Letsgodiving]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

I too struggle with believing the numbers. To hit 200K we would need to average over 1300 deaths a day for five months or 1600 per day for 4 months. Is that plausible? I understand there is a surge coming but still that is a lot of people. I am trying to wrap my head around this and can't.

Meanwhile some people (experts I suppose) are saying that we may be close to leveling off in some parts which makes this theory even more challenging.

In the ongoing press briefing right now Drs. Birx and Fauci are projecting 2200 deaths a day by the middle of April with a much longer tail of deaths than we have seen in the build up to the peak. They are hoping all the current mitigation measures will lessen these numbers but if not 2200/day will add up pretty quick. I think Dr. Birx said the projection heavily relies on modeling derived from NY and NJ and I think she mentioned another location so if other areas of the country mitigate to a greater degree, which seems to be the case in some locations, hopefully these numbers will be less.

[77T]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

I would love to be more positive. But we’ve seen the virus devastating cities one by one. There is no reason to think that the virus will not continue its march across the continent. It’s a slow motion disaster.

A pandemic ends when it runs out of victims through death, immunity, antiviral drugs, inability to infect new victims or vaccines. We won’t see the end until the five factors play out fully.

Joey - would be interested in your opinion of how SARS (Swine Flu) ended as it did with apparently lees deaths?

I just don’t recall this level of concern by officials back then.


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[Old Farmer]

Today the Stae G,ment has banned recreational fishing and from Wednesday, golf. Gonna be a lot of unhappy fishers and golfer out there.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Letsgodiving

In the ongoing press briefing right now Drs. Birx and Fauci are projecting 2200 deaths a day by the middle of April with a much longer tail of deaths than we have seen in the build up to the peak. They are hoping all the current mitigation measures will lessen these numbers but if not 2200/day will add up pretty quick. I think Dr. Birx said the projection heavily relies on modeling derived from NY and NJ and I think she mentioned another location so if other areas of the country mitigate to a greater degree, which seems to be the case in some locations, hopefully these numbers will be less.

Yes the chart now in use is a bit different than the one 2 weeks ago.

Remember it was red/blue with a longer tail 2 weeks ago?



We all knew people would still be dying in that long blue tail...


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[ronricks]

Originally Posted by 77T

Well you have every right to that opinion - and it is trending...

https://www.businessinsider.com/mill...-reddit-2020-3

Now, if your opinion is driven by the numbers, then you may want to revisit the numbers. Boomers are not a small number.

Generation Z, or those born after 1997, made up the largest generation over 90 million. The Baby Boomer generation make up the second largest generation, with just over 72 million. (That’s as of 2018 stats) By age alone Baby Boomers are at risk.

Then you must calculate how many Gen Z have preexisting conditions like diabetes, high blood pressure, obesity, asthma, etc. So even a 10% “at risk” in the Gen Z cohort makes the total at risk pool about even.

Again not attacking your opinion just sharing the underlying assumptions of generational differences.


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I am not saying anyone go back to work today. But in 2 or 3 weeks time we need to reopen the economy the best we can and let the chips fall where they may. A long term shutdown would have a much worse long term effect on this country than the virus.

Now, what does this mean? My Aunt Betty who’s 71 is morbidly obese, has asthma and smokes two packs a day can stay quarantined as long as she wants. Months if she wants to. Me on the other hand a 40 year old who is healthy can head back to work. Is my job more important than her life? Why not both? She can self quarantine and I can return to work while practicing CDC guidelines for hygiene.

If we get anywhere above 15% unemployed it’s going to be a rough place to live in this country. You are going to see the absolute worst in people and we can’t risk that happening as it would be worse than this virus ever could be.

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by 77T

Joey - would be interested in your opinion of how SARS (Swine Flu) ended as it did with apparently less deaths? I just don’t recall this level of concern by officials back then.

There were over 60 million cases of Swine Flu worldwide. About 13,000 people died in the US from it. It affected younger people more than older. About one third of people over sixty years of age had natural antibodies against the disease. The incubation period was a little shorter, which limited the amount of time people walked around feeling well but infecting others. Ultimately, a vaccine was developed.

Many people dying of Covid-9 are dying of cytokine storm, which is an immune hyper-reaction similar to what happened in the 1918 Flu Pandemic. Most victims do well, but when people become seriously ill from Covid, the mortality rate is dismal. The long incubation period leads to a slow spread caused by people who don’t know they are sick.

No one knows how this will play out. We are in uncharted waters.

[walds11]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

Of course the numbers change. The situation is fluid.

You hit the nail on the head

[77T]

Originally Posted by ronricks

I am not saying anyone go back to work today. But in 2 or 3 weeks time we need to reopen the economy the best we can and let the chips fall where they may. A long term shutdown would have a much worse long term effect on this country than the virus.



Now, what does this mean? My Aunt Betty who’s 71 is morbidly obese, has asthma and smokes two packs a day can stay quarantined as long as she wants. Months if she wants to. Me on the other hand a 40 year old who is healthy can head back to work. Is my job more important than her life? Why not both? She can self quarantine and I can return to work while practicing CDC guidelines for hygiene.



If we get anywhere above 15% unemployed it’s going to be a rough place to live in this country. You are going to see the absolute worst in people and we can’t risk that happening as it would be worse than this virus ever could be.

I do understand what you’re saying.

Two things to consider - if you can go back to work, so can 90 million of your cohort. They, in turn, will contact many of the 72 million I mentioned earlier. It’s impossible to control.

Second thing - I’ve done the math and I hate what I saw - and I hope I’m wrong. We are already well above 15% unemployment - the report just hasn’t come out yet. My rough math showed me 32% US unemployment for the next report according to my work. It’s bad - March unemployment comes out April 3rd.

Certainly hope I’m wrong...


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[superdog]

Originally Posted by walds11

You hit the nail on the head

Well that was predictable.

[77T]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

There were over 60 million cases of Swine Flu worldwide. About 13,000 people died in the US from it. It affected younger people more than older. About one third of people over sixty years of age had natural antibodies against the disease. The incubation period was a little shorter, which limited the amount of time people walked around feeling well but infecting others. Ultimately, a vaccine was developed.



Many people dying of Covid-9 are dying of cytokine storm, which is an immune hyper-reaction similar to what happened in the 1918 Flu Pandemic. Most victims do well, but when people become seriously ill from Covid, the mortality rate is dismal. The long incubation period leads to a slow spread caused by people who don’t know they are sick.



No one knows how this will play out. We are in uncharted waters.

Thanks friend.

1918 is too far back to use in a modern model but I recall reading about its history and some very bad isolation methods that involved violence.


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[77T]

Originally Posted by superdog

Well that was predictable.

Seth - I sense this economic pandemic is hitting harder than the health version.

I know this first month of any real action by US authorities has smacked of Keystone Cops.

As we close-out March tonight, I hope April will bring some better insight by officials to make this work better.


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[ronricks]

Originally Posted by 77T

I do understand what you’re saying.

Two things to consider - if you can go back to work, so can 90 million of your cohort. They, in turn, will contact many of the 72 million I mentioned earlier. It’s impossible to control.

Second thing - I’ve done the math and I hate what I saw - and I hope I’m wrong. We are already well above 15% unemployment - the report just hasn’t come out yet. My rough math showed me 32% US unemployment for the next report according to my work. It’s bad - March unemployment comes out April 3rd.

Certainly hope I’m wrong...


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Baby Boomers can stay at home. We don’t need them. In theory, most of them should be out of the workforce by now anyway but they aren’t. Move on and let the younger generations get to work. Same goes for the obese and diabetic. Stay at home. What I mean by ‘best we can’ does not mean opening the floodgates of the workforce. Let able bodied people start this thing back up slowly so we don’t end up with a situation that absolutely will be much worse than this virus ever will be.

Any unemployment number right now is going to be skewed.

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by superdog

Well that was predictable.

I hope you don’t take anything I say as an attack on you. The only things I know are 1) what has happened in past epidemics and 2) what’s happening right now. None of us have any idea what the future holds. Just guesses based on the past, on current best practices and predictions of near-future numbers.

Ultimately, it may very well be that decisions will need to be made based on the welfare of the many at the expense of the lives of the few. Percentages apply to populations, and that is what public health decisions ultimately pertain to. To an individual, survival is not 98% or whatever the number turns out to be. It is either 100% or 0%. People in the our culture have never faced decisions like those coming. It remains to be seem how they will be made, and how they will be accepted by us. No matter what, it will be painful. There is no happy ending to this pandemic.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by 77T

Seth - I sense this economic pandemic is hitting harder than the health version.

I know this first month of any real action by US authorities has smacked of Keystone Cops.

As we close-out March tonight, I hope April will bring some better insight by officials to make this work better.


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Brother Paul, I hope you are correct.

But history is the best indicator the future. What I see is rampant incompetence, small minded games, one ups man ship, and finger pointing.

I don’t see people trying to solve problems, I see people trying to garner “points”.

I do hope you are correct. Personally, I think April will make March look like the NFL makes JV look.

[77T]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Baby Boomers can stay at home. We don’t need them. In theory, most of them should be out of the workforce by now anyway but they aren’t. Move on and let the younger generations get to work. Same goes for the obese and diabetic. Stay at home. What I mean by ‘best we can’ does not mean opening the floodgates of the workforce. Let able bodied people start this thing back up slowly so we don’t end up with a situation that absolutely will be much worse than this virus ever will be.



Any unemployment number right now is going to be skewed.

How would you suggest doing it though.?

There are about 165 million workers in US - 90 Million are GenZ.

I’m only asking it you advocate for your opinion, how do you make it work?

The 70 million Boomers have to go out and shop for food and supplies. That’s why I said my opinion is it would be tough to control.


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[Boothroyd]

[QUOTE=ronricks;10500259]Baby Boomers can stay at home. We don’t need them.

I will let the fact that I commented speak for itself. I would like to keep my TRF membership.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

I hope you don’t take anything I say as an attack on you. The only things I know are 1) what has happened in past epidemics and 2) what’s happening right now. None of us have any idea what the future holds. Just guesses based on the past, on current best practices and predictions of near-future numbers.

Ultimately, it may very well be that decisions will need to be made based on the welfare of the many at the expense of the lives of the few. Percentages apply to populations, and that is what public health decisions ultimately apply to. To an individual, survival is not 98% or whatever the number turns out to be. It is either 100% or 0%. People in the our culture have never faced decisions like those coming. It remains to be seem how they are made, and how they are accepted by us. No matter what, it will be painful. There is no happy ending to this pandemic.

No personal attacks felt Joey.

I was saying that was predictable to someone else. It feels an awful lot like I have my own personal person that follows my posts and makes comments targeted towards trying to incite me.

Which of course it doesn’t. I find it funny and a weird kind of honorific.

[gliderpilot]

Originally Posted by Boothroyd

I would like to be more positive also. Mayo Clinic is making progress on an antibody test, but from what I hear from a PhD contact at the U of M, buckle in for the long haul.

Here is a silver lining. Strictly mathematically speaking, since no figure can be put on human suffering:

If I die tomorrow from COVID-19, I will not die next month from heart disease, next year from diabetes or the year after from pneumonia.

So the majority of COVID-19 fatalities inevitably reduce fatality rates of other diseases. Something "the numbers" typically fail to take into consideration...

[77T]

Originally Posted by superdog

Brother Paul, I hope you are correct.



But history is the best indicator the future. What I see is rampant incompetence, small minded games, one ups man ship, and finger pointing.



I don’t see people trying to solve problems, I see people trying to garner “points”.



I do hope you are correct. Personally, I think April will make March look like the NFL makes JV look.

You are absolutely right about some trying to score points publicly. But I am optimistic they work behind the curtains differently.

The realist side of my mind also says sharks sense blood in the water - so weaker “points players” will get called out and neutralized.

This has been the most significant night for good respectful idea sharing on this thread. I applaud everyone for sharing facts and ideas without any personal or political rancor


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[ronricks]

Originally Posted by 77T

How would you suggest doing it though.?

There are about 165 million workers in US - 90 Million are GenZ.

I’m only asking it you advocate for your opinion, how do you make it work?

The 70 million Boomers have to go out and shop for food and supplies. That’s why I said my opinion is it would be tough to control.


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Baby Boomers can self quarantine and practice CDC guidelines and not go out unless it is absolutely essential to do such. All my aunts/uncles and parents are Baby Boomers. All of them stayed in the workforce way too long for different reasons. I have a 96 year old grandmother that we don’t let leave the house. I get her groceries and meds and drop them off staying far away from her and immediately leave the house. It is hard but it can be done. I absolutely hear what you are saying but at some point something has to give and that result can’t be what would happen with mass unemployment because that result would be worse than the actual virus. Baby Boomers are just going to have to deal with it just like my generation has had to deal with jobs, unemployment, wages, cost of education and housing etc.

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by superdog

I was saying that was predictable to someone else. It feels an awful lot like I have my own personal person that follows my posts and makes comments targeted towards trying to incite me.

I understood you were speaking to someone else. Just wanted you to know I respect your posts. I've had a couple of people who questioned every post I made, even when a simple Google search on their part would verify the post. It’s frustrating.

[ronricks]

[QUOTE=Boothroyd;10500271]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Baby Boomers can stay at home. We don’t need them.

I will let the fact that I commented speak for itself. I would like to keep my TRF membership.

We don’t need them in the workforce during this pandemic. Stay at home as long as you want. When things flatten out then come back to work. This isn’t a personal attack. It’s reality.

[Boothroyd]

Originally Posted by gliderpilot

Here is a silver lining. Strictly mathematically speaking, since no figure can be put on human suffering:

If I die tomorrow from COVID-19, I will not die next month from heart disease, next year from diabetes or the year after from pneumonia.

So the majority of COVID-19 fatalities inevitably reduce fatality rates of other diseases. Something "the numbers" typically fail to take into consideration...

It's a fair point. However, I think when it is over, one might be surprised at the mortality statistics in US. Hence my veiled comment about what I was told today.

[Boothroyd]

[QUOTE=ronricks;10500282]

Originally Posted by Boothroyd

We don’t need them in the workforce during this pandemic. Stay at home as long as you want. When things flatten out then come back to work. This isn’t a personal attack. It’s reality.

I guess you think that no Baby Boomers lead businesses, are CEO's, etc. I question your reality. "Don't need them in workforce"...really?