the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[77T]

Originally Posted by superdog

This thread is not a pissing match between countries.

Everyone settle down please.

Opinions sometimes feel like facts. And sometimes opinions are mixed in with facts.

Truth is the US is filled with overweight unhealthy people. That’s fact.

But the moment calls for compassion. For all.

This thread is sharing mostly opinions and hopes. With little in the way of facts. It’s still nice to me able to chat and debate and learn.

Thanks for metaphorically steering the ship to calmer waters

To the point we all have opinions, it helps to see the points of view from others with different backgrounds, cultures and governance.

Now here is what I’d like to see from the various parties in official roles who are predicting outcomes of different public policies: a functioning counterfactual model.

We anecdotally see the negative outcomes of various approaches because that is all over the news.

For example, this morning’s venerable talk/news shows were all ready with the new infections, new deaths, new bad news. But why not reinforce the outcomes of the good efforts?

That’s what a counterfactual model could do.

For every stat on the negatives side, like deaths overnight, a model could show how many deaths were avoided by using the lockdown, social distancing, school closures, etc.

Why would this matter?

The threat profile of negative outcomes (deaths, fines or incarceration for failure to comply) will modify human behavior only so long.

Positive reinforcement would enhance compliance better if people felt they were part of an effort that accomplished good.

My take is we still have a long path to tread; the difference is that positive reinforcement would increase target behavior rather than punishment aiming to decrease negative behavior.


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[superdog]

Originally Posted by 77T

Thanks for metaphorically steering the ship to calmer waters

To the point we all have opinions, it helps to see the points of view from others with different backgrounds, cultures and governance.

Now here is what I’d like to see from the various parties in official roles who are predicting outcomes of different public policies: a functioning counterfactual model.

We anecdotally see the negative outcomes of various approaches because that is all over the news.

For example, this morning’s venerable talk/news shows were all ready with the new infections, new deaths, new bad news. But why not reinforce the outcomes of the good efforts?

That’s what a counterfactual model could do.

For every stat on the negatives side, like deaths overnight, a model could show how many deaths were avoided by using the lockdown, social distancing, school closures, etc.

Why would this matter?

The threat profile of negative outcomes (deaths, fines or incarceration for failure to comply) will modify human behavior only so long.

Positive reinforcement would enhance compliance better if people felt they were part of an effort that accomplished good.

My take is we still have a long path to tread; the difference is that positive reinforcement would increase target behavior rather than punishment aiming to decrease negative behavior.


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Agree. Times a million.

We need to be showing positive stuff too. Thank you.

[BBL]

.

This is a family doctor in Texas in a radio interview, March 25, 2020.

https://texags.com/s/35809/coates-we...e-ever-seen/84

[dimag333]

Javitz center which was set up for cv19 patient over flow (you know where they did the press conference with all the ppe behind them) is now being used for non cv19 patients only. Odd turn and pivot but maybe to keep all the cv19 patients contained? Military is running the show there

steve

[sillo]

Originally Posted by dimag333

Javitz center which was set up for cv19 patient over flow (you know where they did the press conference with all the ppe behind them) is now being used for non cv19 patients only. Odd turn and pivot but maybe to keep all the cv19 patients contained? Military is running the show there

steve

I believe that was always the plan. Same with the use of hospital ships. Only for non covid patients.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by daveathall

My son is working in New Jersey (Jersey City), he is and I am very confident in the professionalism and the skill of the US system, it would be nice if he were closer home in these times but I am happy that he is somewhere he loves.

I am in awe of medical staff the world over, thanks to all of them.

Hey Dave!!! Where have you been? Thank you for your comment.

How are you holding out?

[daveathall]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Hey Dave!!! Where have you been? Thank you for your comment.

How are you holding out?

I am good my friend, I hope the same for you and your family Brett, I have been reading the posts and self isolating, I am good, just keeping away from others. My rowing machine (My son called it my new shoe rack) arrived the other day and it has given me some good work outs.

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by sillo

I believe that was always the plan. Same with the use of hospital ships. Only for non covid patients.

The ships for sure

steve

[Carry The Interest]

Originally Posted by daveathall

I am good my friend, I hope the same for you and your family Brett, I have been reading the posts and self isolating, I am good, just keeping away from others. My rowing machine (My son called it my new shoe rack) arrived the other day and it has given me some good work outs.

Hope you've been enjoying the new Concept 2. I can definitely say mine (keep it in my home office) has been getting a lot more use since we went into quarantine!

[daveathall]

Originally Posted by Carry The Interest

Hope you've been enjoying the new Concept 2. I can definitely say mine (keep it in my home office) has been getting a lot more use since we went into quarantine!

Thank you Joey, I certainly aim my friend.

[mountainjogger]

Here is an article concerning the proposals for a unified US response to Covid 19.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...-economy-plan/

The article focusses on the proposal from the American Enterprise Institute, entitled, National coronavirus response: A road map to reopening. Here is link to the actual report.

https://www.aei.org/research-product...-to-reopening/

It is easy to read. And in my opinion, well thought out. The authors include two professors from John Hopkins and three former FDA leaders.

Stay safe.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by superdog

On the positive note, my aunts fever has broken and she’s feeling much better.

And an old friend and his wife, both heavy and both heavy smokers, who tested positive and have been feeling ill for a week are both on the mend. Fevers gone and feeling better.

Seth
Great news about your Aunt, and friends......keep an eye on them, some people report feeling better, and then getting sicker all of a sudden, it like a double dip. Best of health to them!

[superdog]

Originally Posted by BillA

Seth
Great news about your Aunt, and friends......keep an eye on them, some people report feeling better, and then getting sicker all of a sudden, it like a double dip. Best of health to them!

I’ve heard that too.

Thanks for the reminder!!

Definitely will keep everyone vigilant.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Just saw this for any fellow Philadelphians

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Here is an article concerning the proposals for a unified US response to Covid 19.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...-economy-plan/

The article focusses on the proposal from the American Enterprise Institute, entitled, National coronavirus response: A road map to reopening. Here is link to the actual report.

https://www.aei.org/research-product...-to-reopening/

It is easy to read. And in my opinion, well thought out. The authors include two professors from John Hopkins and three former FDA leaders.

Stay safe.

I noted a lack of a timeline. Kind of important. No.... incredibly important.

Also no plan to deal with the massive economic fallout. Things like millions of people having their cars repossessed, being evicted and having no food. Do they plan to build camps for these people? Perhaps use the National Guard to corral them?

It’s time to consider and understand that when these doctors so many people admire write these things and walk in and tell the civilian leadership they need to do A. B. and C. or the worst will happen that’s it’s not the doctors that have to consider or even worry about ALL the repercussions of said actions. It’s not their problem. Good grief I bet even the the most brilliant economist and sociologists don’t fully understand yet the damage already done in the last month never mind the coming months.

I appreciate the link.

[watchmework]

Looks like the US social distancing guidelines will be extended until 30 April, stay safe and healthy everyone.

[77T]

Yep - this will stretch many to their emotional breaking point methinks.




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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by 77T

Yep - this will stretch many to their emotional breaking point methinks.




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It’ll pretty much finish off the first world. At least for the foreseeable future.

Edit: oh and you can pretty much kiss the stock market goodbye. I’m sure those boys will finish it off before Wednesday.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by watchmework

Looks like the US social distancing guidelines will be extended until 30 April, stay safe and healthy everyone.

Originally Posted by 77T

Yep - this will stretch many to their emotional breaking point methinks.




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Originally Posted by Patton250

It’ll pretty much finish off the first world. At least for the foreseeable future.

Edit: oh and you can pretty much kiss the stock market goodbye. I’m sure those boys will finish it off before Wednesday.

Chins up. Heads held high.

It’s go time folks. Tough times don’t last. Tough people do.

Let’s go!!

[77T]

Originally Posted by superdog

Chins up. Heads held high.



It’s go time folks. Tough times don’t last. Tough people do.



Let’s go!!

Oh I agree - I don’t subscribe to any form of defeatist POV. It will just be a difficult time emotionally was my opinion.


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[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I noted a lack of a timeline. Kind of important. No.... incredibly important.

Also no plan to deal with the massive economic fallout. Things like millions of people having their cars repossessed, being evicted and having no food. Do they plan to build camps for these people? Perhaps use the National Guard to corral them?

It’s time to consider and understand that when these doctors so many people admire write these things and walk in and tell the civilian leadership they need to do A. B. and C. or the worst will happen that’s it’s not the doctors that have to consider or even worry about ALL the repercussions of said actions. It’s not their problem. Good grief I bet even the the most brilliant economist and sociologists don’t fully understand yet the damage already done in the last month never mind the coming months.

I appreciate the link.

Brett:

I hear what you are saying. And I appreciate your feelings.

The problem is throwing out an arbitrary date that is not data driven and based on reality would be meaningless.

As Dr. F is want to say, the virus has it's own time. We can only impact it by the measure we take or don't take.

For a stark example, it matters little if Italy or Spain tried to announce a specific date when they will resume normal functions. It would mean nothing right now. They are literally fighting for their national life.

The authors of this plan (and most other serious plans I have seen) state that the timeline is data driven. Once a state shows a decrease in infection rate for 14 days, the state begins to open up while moving on to tracing and other measures to keep the rate down.

This plan is not an economic plan. It is a plan to try and retain a functioning healthcare system and is not be devastated by a large loss of life. And it is tailored to balance minimizing economic damage while still trying to get a handle on the public health threat.

As far as this being a "bunch of doctors" I encourage you to read the bio of the authors. Three are not doctors and have no affiliation with John Hopkins.

Also, please google the AEI. Its middle name is Enterprise and it is and has always been dedicated to advancing capitalism. Its Board of Trustees is compressed of industry leaders in finance, manufacturing, insurance, etc.

I respect your opinion Brett, but I do not agree that this is just a bunch of doctors.

Stay safe.

[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by watchmework

Looks like the US social distancing guidelines will be extended until 30 April, stay safe and healthy everyone.

but not everywhere is locked down, right? I have friends who are discussing getting AirBnBs in whatever US city is maximally open, for the sake of nightlife. Most of these guys are in NYC or other major cities, so they could inadvertently bring it with them.

Unless everything locks down, there are bored people with money who will relocate. Their work is now remote so they can do it from anywhere with good WiFi

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by superdog

Chins up. Heads held high.

It’s go time folks. Tough times don’t last. Tough people do.

Let’s go!!

Thanks Seth.

Simple, concise and positive.

Stay safe.

[dimag333]

Check the sba site small biz guys! Wow 4/30 is gonna be tough but necessary

steve

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Patton250

It’ll pretty much finish off the first world. At least for the foreseeable future.

Edit: oh and you can pretty much kiss the stock market goodbye. I’m sure those boys will finish it off before Wednesday.

Brett my friend. As you have said in many of your earlier posts. Panic helps no one.

In my opinion this country is a lot tougher than that. And so is the economy.

Stay safe.

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

but not everywhere is locked down, right? I have friends who are discussing getting AirBnBs in whatever US city is maximally open, for the sake of nightlife. Most of these guys are in NYC or other major cities, so they could inadvertently bring it with them.

Unless everything locks down, there are bored people with money who will relocate. Their work is now remote so they can do it from anywhere with good WiFi

Ny are being forced to quarantine in many state’s when they arrive now, even by car, they won’t have a pleasant surprise waiting for them

steve

[rolexgiants]

Originally Posted by superdog

Chins up. Heads held high.

It’s go time folks. Tough times don’t last. Tough people do.

Let’s go!!

100% agree! If ur HEALTHY, ur WEALTHY!!

[watchmework]

Originally Posted by superdog

Chins up. Heads held high.

It’s go time folks. Tough times don’t last. Tough people do.

Let’s go!!

So true Seth, let's get after it

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

but not everywhere is locked down, right? I have friends who are discussing getting AirBnBs in whatever US city is maximally open, for the sake of nightlife. Most of these guys are in NYC or other major cities, so they could inadvertently bring it with them.

Unless everything locks down, there are bored people with money who will relocate. Their work is now remote so they can do it from anywhere with good WiFi

It's true, the country isn't on a complete lockdown and likely won't be in the foreseeable future...various governor's have issued their own lockdown procedures but as Brandrea was saying in another thread, it isn't consistent across states. That said, here is the latest guidance from the coronavirus task force at the federal level: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-conten...5x11_315PM.pdf


You're friends in NYC should check out the CDC's latest guidelines for NY/NJ/Conn and they should stay put...for their own and the public's health: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2...-advisory.html

"Due to extensive community transmission of COVID -19 in the area, CDC urges residents of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut to refrain from non-essential domestic travel for 14 days effective immediately. "

[superdog]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Thanks Seth.

Simple, concise and positive.

Stay safe.

Thanks my man, you too!!

[superdog]

Originally Posted by rolexgiants

100% agree! If ur HEALTHY, ur WEALTHY!!

Yeah dog!!

Exactly.