the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Brett:

I hear what you are saying. And I appreciate your feelings.

The problem is throwing out an arbitrary date that is not data driven and based on reality would be meaningless.

As Dr. F is want to say, the virus has it's own time. We can only impact it by the measure we take or don't take.

For a stark example, it matters little if Italy or Spain tried to announce a specific date when they will resume normal functions. It would mean nothing right now. They are literally fighting for their national life.

The authors of this plan (and most other serious plans I have seen) state that the timeline is data driven. Once a state shows a decrease in infection rate for 14 days, the state begins to open up while moving on to tracing and other measures to keep the rate down.

This plan is not an economic plan. It is a plan to try and retain a functioning healthcare system and is not be devastated by a large loss of life. And it is tailored to balance minimizing economic damage while still trying to get a handle on the public health threat.

As far as this being a "bunch of doctors" I encourage you to read the bio of the authors. Three are not doctors and have no affiliation with John Hopkins.

Also, please google the AEI. Its middle name is Enterprise and it is and has always been dedicated to advancing capitalism. Its Board of Trustees is compressed of industry leaders in finance, manufacturing, insurance, etc.

I respect your opinion Brett, but I do not agree that this is just a bunch of doctors.

Stay safe.

I apologize if you feel I was demeaning the doctors. I wasn’t. I was merely saying they don’t share the responsibility and accountability of civilian leadership they are advising. Thanks man

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by THC

Wow ..prayers and best wishes to them, Brian

Thanks Tom, much appreciated my friend.

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

[Carry The Interest]

Don't mean to add my own complaints to this thread, as they are pale in comparison to some of the real/health issues some members and their families are facing right now. The news one of our members shared yesterday hit me very hard, as I have been increasingly concerned about my own parents over the past few weeks. As of now I very thankful of a few things, first and foremost my own health and the health of family and loved ones. Also fortunate enough that I can easily work from home (if anything, I am more efficient here since I don't have any chin-waggers stopping by my office throughout the day!).

Me and my fiance are scheduled to get married in Greece at the end of July. Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, we were very far along with all of our plans (save the dates sent, venue, caterer, photographer, reception band, separate band for our procession through town to the church). We were actually just about to hit the order button on the formal invites just as the outbreak started to get alarmingly bad outside of China. At first we thought, "let's hold off a week or two to see how this goes" knowing no one would respond well to a destination wedding invite at that time. It's crazy how much things have changed over the past few weeks now...

Unfortunately, we're leaning very much towards cancelling/postponing the event because no one really knows how this plays out. Even if things start to get better in a month or so, we're now unsure of a lot our guest list wanting to book a trip to Greece for this summer (people who already have the date and were previously planning on attending). The whole thing is a bummer too because we were previously planning on getting married last year, but had to postpone all of that planning early on due to family/health problems with both sides/families (wasn't a good time for celebration). One thing we are both certain of though is this: as soon as this shelter in place is lifted in CA and places start to open up again, we are heading straight to the courthouse to get the legal side of the marriage completed. Neither of us want to wait any longer...

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Carry The Interest

Don't mean to add my own complaints to this thread, as they are pale in comparison to some of the real/health issues some members and their families are facing right now. The news one of our members shared yesterday hit me very hard, as I have been increasingly concerned about my own parents over the past few weeks. As of now I very thankful of a few things, first and foremost my own health and the health of family and loved ones. Also fortunate enough that I can easily work from home (if anything, I am more efficient here since I don't have any chin-waggers stopping by my office throughout the day!).

Me and my fiance are scheduled to get married in Greece at the end of July. Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, we were very far along with all of our plans (save the dates sent, venue, caterer, photographer, reception band, separate band for our procession through town to the church). We were actually just about to hit the order button on the formal invites just as the outbreak started to get alarmingly bad outside of China. At first we thought, "let's hold off a week or two to see how this goes" knowing no one would respond well to a destination wedding invite at that time. It's crazy how much things have changed over the past few weeks now...

Unfortunately, we're leaning very much towards cancelling/postponing the event because no one really knows how this plays out. Even if things start to get better in a month or so, we're now unsure of a lot our guest list wanting to book a trip to Greece for this summer (people who already have the date and were previously planning on attending). The whole thing is a bummer too because we were previously planning on getting married last year, but had to postpone all of that planning early on due to family/health problems with both sides/families (wasn't a good time for celebration). One thing we are both certain of though is this: as soon as this shelter in place is lifted in CA and places start to open up again, we are heading straight to the courthouse to get the legal side of the marriage completed. Neither of us want to wait any longer...

I’ve married people before. I can easily get my credentials back.

If you want, I’ll marry you this week. Or as soon as I get the paperwork back. I xxxx you not. Just say the word.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by Carry The Interest

The news one of our members shared yesterday hit me very hard, as I have been increasingly concerned about my own parents over the past few weeks.

Same. I'm extremely worried for my mom who is on medication that weakens her immune system. Today is her birthday and my parents are traveling back to NY state from their wintering months in South Carolina. I hope all goes well, and I asked her to stay inside when they get home. I can't stress enough how worried I am for her.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Here is an article concerning the proposals for a unified US response to Covid 19.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...-economy-plan/

The article focusses on the proposal from the American Enterprise Institute, entitled, National coronavirus response: A road map to reopening. Here is link to the actual report.

https://www.aei.org/research-product...-to-reopening/

It is easy to read. And in my opinion, well thought out. The authors include two professors from John Hopkins and three former FDA leaders.

Stay safe.

My biggest takeaway from this report is this:

Encourage the Public to Wear Masks. There is emerging evidence that asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 is possible,18 which complicates efforts to pursue case-based interventions. To reduce this risk during Phase I, everyone, including people without symptoms, should be encouraged to wear nonmedical fabric face masks while in public.

As I mentioned in earlier posts, the masks not needed for the healthy narrative was purely a function of lack of mask availability. It was a phony recommendation based on our lack of preparation

Now they have to completely reverse that and get people to wear masks now...

Government will need to ration masks, toilet paper and hand sanitizer post haste.

We are at complete war, not with other humans, but with a virus.

It’s time we accepted that and acted like it.

[Carry The Interest]

Originally Posted by superdog

I’ve married people before. I can easily get my credentials back.

If you want, I’ll marry you this week. Or as soon as I get the paperwork back. I xxxx you not. Just say the word.

I certainly appreciate the offer, Seth. I might just need to take you up on that depending on how many extensions we get to this shutdown.


Btw - just sent you a follow request on your ig.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by Carry The Interest

Btw - just sent you a follow request on your ig.

Same

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by Carry The Interest

Don't mean to add my own complaints to this thread, as they are pale in comparison to some of the real/health issues some members and their families are facing right now. The news one of our members shared yesterday hit me very hard, as I have been increasingly concerned about my own parents over the past few weeks. As of now I very thankful of a few things, first and foremost my own health and the health of family and loved ones. Also fortunate enough that I can easily work from home (if anything, I am more efficient here since I don't have any chin-waggers stopping by my office throughout the day!).

Me and my fiance are scheduled to get married in Greece at the end of July. Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, we were very far along with all of our plans (save the dates sent, venue, caterer, photographer, reception band, separate band for our procession through town to the church). We were actually just about to hit the order button on the formal invites just as the outbreak started to get alarmingly bad outside of China. At first we thought, "let's hold off a week or two to see how this goes" knowing no one would respond well to a destination wedding invite at that time. It's crazy how much things have changed over the past few weeks now...

Unfortunately, we're leaning very much towards cancelling/postponing the event because no one really knows how this plays out. Even if things start to get better in a month or so, we're now unsure of a lot our guest list wanting to book a trip to Greece for this summer (people who already have the date and were previously planning on attending). The whole thing is a bummer too because we were previously planning on getting married last year, but had to postpone all of that planning early on due to family/health problems with both sides/families (wasn't a good time for celebration). One thing we are both certain of though is this: as soon as this shelter in place is lifted in CA and places start to open up again, we are heading straight to the courthouse to get the legal side of the marriage completed. Neither of us want to wait any longer...

I am in the wedding industry and thanks to this thread I was able to get ahead of my rebooks, need advice dm me

steve

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Carry The Interest

I certainly appreciate the offer, Seth. I might just need to take you up on that depending on how many extensions we get to this shutdown.


Btw - just sent you a follow request on your ig.

Originally Posted by gnuyork

Same

nice. love it guys!!!

Go Time!!!!!!

[Patton250]

I wanted to say something personal to my friends on this forum. Please understand my concerns about the economic ramifications of this virus and the closures have nothing to do with me personally. Honestly my company and myself are doing fine during this crisis. We make products that help people with this sort of thing so we are very busy. I will not be hurting financially nor will anyone in my company. I just wanted to make that clear.

My concern has always been for the bottom 80 to 90% of the citizens of the world who are in no position financially to ride this out in my opinion. I’m glad the United States passed a financial package and that will certainly help some individual families in my country but it’s not going to be a long-term solution for the millions of small businesses that are sure to suffer with most of them closing permanently. This is where my thoughts and prayers have been directed this whole time. Please know I also have been very concerned about the health situation as well. I very well might be wrong in the end but I still don’t see numbers that justify all the action that has been taken. But then I am certainly not an expert and don’t claim to be. One thing is for sure we are definitely going to find out. We are close to 2500 deaths in the United States as I type this. I hope and pray that number doesn’t go much higher. We shall soon know. But one life is too many. You’ve all been very reasonable on this thread and I hope you feel I have as well. Blessings and safety to you all. You all have my appreciation.

[aczaja10]

Originally Posted by superdog

I’ve married people before. I can easily get my credentials back.

If you want, I’ll marry you this week. Or as soon as I get the paperwork back. I xxxx you not. Just say the word.

Great gesture. The one good thing about this pandemic is that I have seen people treat each other much better. Restored my faith in people to be honest. I've seen some amazing things and I have heard about many more.

I enjoy reading Seth's posts and this is one of his best ones indeed. A kind offer with a little humor.

[Brenngun]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I noted a lack of a timeline. Kind of important. No.... incredibly important.

Also no plan to deal with the massive economic fallout. Things like millions of people having their cars repossessed, being evicted and having no food. Do they plan to build camps for these people? Perhaps use the National Guard to corral them?

It’s time to consider and understand that when these doctors so many people admire write these things and walk in and tell the civilian leadership they need to do A. B. and C. or the worst will happen that’s it’s not the doctors that have to consider or even worry about ALL the repercussions of said actions. It’s not their problem. Good grief I bet even the the most brilliant economist and sociologists don’t fully understand yet the damage already done in the last month never mind the coming months.

I appreciate the link.

Brett, It's sometimes hard to tell if you're asking a question to gain further insight or just to stir up the pot with a more pessimistic position that you feel we may be missing or ignoring. If it's the latter I believe we all understand our previous way of life can become negatively affected by more than the virus. Do you seriously believe that the banks or financial institutions are going to start repossessing millions of cars? What good would that do them? Where would they park them all or sell them? With a situation like this it's in their best interest to delay payments and wait this out and in our best interest to keep positive and concentrate on whatever is needed to beat the virus.

Originally Posted by Patton250

It’ll pretty much finish off the first world. At least for the foreseeable future.

Edit: oh and you can pretty much kiss the stock market goodbye. I’m sure those boys will finish it off before Wednesday.

Let's go back in time to say 1929 and black Tuesday when people were jumping out of windows on wall street. The economy collapsed, unemployment skyrocketed and yet we as a society survived. It was painful but we did survive.

Originally Posted by superdog

Chins up. Heads held high.

It’s go time folks. Tough times don’t last. Tough people do.

Let’s go!!

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Brenngun

Brett, It's sometimes hard to tell if you're asking a question to gain further insight or just to stir up the pot with a more pessimistic position that you feel we may be missing or ignoring. If it's the latter I believe we all understand our previous way of life can become negatively affected by more than the virus. Do you seriously believe that the banks or financial institutions are going to start repossessing millions of cars? What good would that do them? Where would they park them all or sell them? With a situation like this it's in their best interest to delay payments and wait this out and in our best interest to keep positive and concentrate on whatever is needed to beat the virus.



Let's go back in time to say 1929 and black Tuesday when people were jumping out of windows on wall street. The economy collapsed, unemployment skyrocketed and yet we as a society survived. It was painful but we did survive.

Don’t get me wrong my friend I appreciate your comments. As you can see by my next post I’m not pessimistic for myself. However I’d be interested to hear from someone that makes $40,000 a year and just lost their job with pretty much no idea when and if they will get it or one back. It’s easy to be optimistic and positive when you are financially set. That’s where I’m coming from.

[Spartacus]

Originally Posted by superdog

Chins up. Heads held high.

It’s go time folks. Tough times don’t last. Tough people do.

Let’s go!!

[Brenngun]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Don’t get me wrong my friend I appreciate your comments. As you can see by my next post I’m not pessimistic for myself. However I’d be interested to hear from someone that makes $40,000 a year and just lost their job with pretty much no idea when and if they will get it or one back. It’s easy to be optimistic and positive when you are financially set. That’s where I’m coming from.

I did see your next post my friend and do appreciate where you're coming from. We're all sailing in uncharted waters for this current generation. It really doesn't matter who's right or wrong. What really matters is we all stick together and help each other out when ever possible.

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Don’t get me wrong my friend I appreciate your comments. As you can see by my next post I’m not pessimistic for myself. However I’d be interested to hear from someone that makes $40,000 a year and just lost their job with pretty much no idea when and if they will get it or one back. It’s easy to be optimistic and positive when you are financially set. That’s where I’m coming from.

They just got 2 weeks paid off, plus probably got all their pto and a $600 a week raise and 100% unemployment benefits for min 4 months, who knows after that

steve

[emersm]

Originally Posted by superdog

I’ve married people before. I can easily get my credentials back.

If you want, I’ll marry you this week. Or as soon as I get the paperwork back. I xxxx you not. Just say the word.

Damn..... you do it all Seth!

You are the Dos Equis guy!

[superdog]

Originally Posted by emersm

Damn..... you do it all Seth!

You are the Dos Equis guy!

:cheer s:

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Brenngun

I did see your next post my friend and do appreciate where you're coming from. We're all sailing in uncharted waters for this current generation. It really doesn't matter who's right or wrong. What really matters is we all stick together and help each other out when ever possible.

Amen to that!!!

[77T]

Originally Posted by Patton250

...I’d be interested to hear from someone that makes $40,000 a year and just lost their job with pretty much no idea when and if they will get it or one back.

I think I get your point...and I can only reflect upon my personal experience.

Median household income in the US was $63,000-ish last year. People who are a head of household earning $40,000 per year are likely to be vastly different than anyone chiming in here.

But I do know some Americans between those two income levels. An elementary school teacher, a child day-care worker, a hair stylist, a boat captain, an installer, a chef, a yoga instructor. All are facing a hellish place to be - all connected to me directly. I have heard from them and it is a sobering situation.

Something in common - in general, teleworking isn’t an option (except for the teacher). Their employers are generally small businesses who have no resources to pay them through April 30th. I have had long talks peppered with anxiety, tears, lost dreams and no ray of sunshine (yet). The economic relief will help them when they come up for air.

They are still in the denial/disbelief phase. After denial, panic, and fear set-in, they disconnect from the news. Maybe in a month they can get down to the last stage: rational response.

But the cohort of people you want to hear from will require personal outreach within you own family, or network or community.


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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by 77T

I think I get your point...and I can only reflect upon my personal experience.

Median household income in the US was $63,000-ish last year. People who are a head of household earning $40,000 per year are likely to be vastly different than anyone chiming in here.

But I do know some Americans between those two income levels. An elementary school teacher, a child day-care worker, a hair stylist, a boat captain, an installer, a chef, a yoga instructor. All are facing a hellish place to be - all connected to me directly. I have heard from them and it is a sobering situation.

Something in common - in general, teleworking isn’t an option (except for the teacher). I have had long talks peppered with anxiety, tears, lost dreams and no ray of sunshine (yet).

They are still in the denial/disbelief phase. After denial, panic, and fear set-in, they disconnect from the news. Maybe in a month they can get down to the last stage: rational response.

But the cohort of people you want to hear from will require personal outreach within you own family, or network or community.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

I thought you might have known me better than that Paul. :-)

I already do that. Long before this virus crisis and long after.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I thought you might have known me better than that Paul. :-)

I already do that. Long before this virus crisis and long after.

If you already have a finger on that pulse, then I was confused by that part of your post.

No worries it was just digital ink.




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[huncho]

Originally Posted by Carry The Interest

Don't mean to add my own complaints to this thread, as they are pale in comparison to some of the real/health issues some members and their families are facing right now. The news one of our members shared yesterday hit me very hard, as I have been increasingly concerned about my own parents over the past few weeks. As of now I very thankful of a few things, first and foremost my own health and the health of family and loved ones. Also fortunate enough that I can easily work from home (if anything, I am more efficient here since I don't have any chin-waggers stopping by my office throughout the day!).

Me and my fiance are scheduled to get married in Greece at the end of July. Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, we were very far along with all of our plans (save the dates sent, venue, caterer, photographer, reception band, separate band for our procession through town to the church). We were actually just about to hit the order button on the formal invites just as the outbreak started to get alarmingly bad outside of China. At first we thought, "let's hold off a week or two to see how this goes" knowing no one would respond well to a destination wedding invite at that time. It's crazy how much things have changed over the past few weeks now...

Unfortunately, we're leaning very much towards cancelling/postponing the event because no one really knows how this plays out. Even if things start to get better in a month or so, we're now unsure of a lot our guest list wanting to book a trip to Greece for this summer (people who already have the date and were previously planning on attending). The whole thing is a bummer too because we were previously planning on getting married last year, but had to postpone all of that planning early on due to family/health problems with both sides/families (wasn't a good time for celebration). One thing we are both certain of though is this: as soon as this shelter in place is lifted in CA and places start to open up again, we are heading straight to the courthouse to get the legal side of the marriage completed. Neither of us want to wait any longer...

probably better safe than sorry at this point even though i think things will start going back to normal around june it might still ruin your wedding

also, appreciate all the kind words from everyone throughout the pages

[Letsgodiving]

Large drop in deaths in the US today. The first drop since March 21. 525 yesterday and 264 today. Hopefully it's not an anomaly.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by Letsgodiving

Large drop in deaths in the US today. The first drop since March 21. 525 yesterday and 264 today. Hopefully it's not an anomaly.

Less deaths, better treatments, news on a vaccine! Let’s go big pharma and biotech industries!

[gtnator]

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[CRM114]

Originally Posted by SearChart

Didn't mean to offend anyone, I'm sorry if I did.

It's not that it was offensive, it's just that you don't know what you're talking about. Don't confuse Americans' personal choices that make them fat and unhealthy with the US healthcare system that responds to such unhealthy living, keeping them alive for far longer than they would if the system were substandard. This is especially true for emergency care, where the uninsured and unable to pay receive the same care in the same NICUs and ICUs as those who do. The quality of the system...when talking life or death... isn't defined by billing complexity.

Look at it this way. When there's a garden variety heatwave in the US during August, 10s of thousands aren't dying of heatstroke on gurneys in hallways of un-airconditioned, understaffed hospital hallways like they did in other places I could name (2003). I was there at the time and remember it very well.

The US healthcare system will be hammered hard to capacity by this COVID-19, but there won't be the the sky-high mortality rate seen elsewhere or front-ending denial of things like ventilators based on "too old to live" or "Our experts have determined it wouldn't have helped them" without changing existing laws.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by CRM114

It's not that it was offensive, it's just that you don't know what you're talking about. Don't confuse Americans' personal choices that make them fat and unhealthy with the US healthcare system that responds to such unhealthy living, keeping them alive for far longer than they would if the system were substandard. This is especially true for emergency care, where the uninsured and unable to pay receive the same care in the same NICUs and ICUs as those who do. The quality of the system...when talking life or death... isn't defined by billing complexity.

Look at it this way. When there's a garden variety heatwave in the US during August, 10s of thousands aren't dying of heatstroke on gurneys in hallways of un-airconditioned, understaffed hospital hallways like they did in other places I could name (2003). I was there at the time and remember it very well.

The US healthcare system will be hammered hard to capacity by this COVID-19, but there won't be the the sky-high mortality rate seen elsewhere or front-ending denial of things like ventilators based on "too old to live" or "Our experts have determined it wouldn't have helped them" without changing existing laws.

I hope you are right.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by superdog

I’ve married people before.
If you want, I’ll marry you this week.

Seth, that is the most romantic proposal I’ve ever heard. I wish you two nothing but happiness.