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Old 13 September 2018, 08:08 PM   #1
sathwik
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15400 to be discontinued soon?

Hi folks!
I own a 15400or and I’m looking at 15400st for a daily. Current supply of 15400st is said to be limited and the prices have increased in the grey market compared to last year. also 15400or availability has decreased in grey market too, my trusted dealer says. Going by this trend does that mean 15400 is soon to be discontinued considering it’s almost reached the same life span as the now discontinued and previous version of the royal oak The 15300???
Are we going to see a latest version of the royal oak soon? What do you guys think?

Ps. I bought my 15400or brand new at 40% off MRP. This high discount in grey market usually happens toward the end of a particular models lifecycle. And suddenly prices go up after they discontinue. Do you agree?
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Old 13 September 2018, 08:19 PM   #2
Tomas Eriksson
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My take:
Availability is low due to all time high demand. Francois himself have confirmed that AP won't ramp up production to meet current demand.
I dont see 15400 being discontinued anytime soon. The 15300 was identified as cannibalising the 15202 a few years back which was the reason for it's short lifespan. Market was different back then, pretty much no AP model flew of the shelves...
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Old 17 September 2018, 12:23 AM   #3
sathwik
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomas Eriksson View Post
My take:
Availability is low due to all time high demand. Francois himself have confirmed that AP won't ramp up production to meet current demand.
I dont see 15400 being discontinued anytime soon. The 15300 was identified as cannibalising the 15202 a few years back which was the reason for it's short lifespan. Market was different back then, pretty much no AP model flew of the shelves...

Makes sense! There’s a never seen before demand for AP currently, most new models are unavailable!
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Old 17 September 2018, 02:57 AM   #4
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I could see the 15400 being discontinued. They will make a newer updated version with a clear case back, smaller case, maybe update the clasp, etc

Companies make money by releasing new stuff LOL

My question is not if, but WHEN they will AP cut the 15400?

If they didn’t, we would all say AP RO line is stale and needs a refresh
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Old 17 September 2018, 07:40 AM   #5
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Can't see it happening for a few years yet.
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Old 17 September 2018, 12:27 PM   #6
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Agree that I can't see AP discontinuing the 15400 for a few years.
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Old 17 September 2018, 01:21 PM   #7
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I sure hope they don’t! Still haven’t gotten mine yet.
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Old 17 September 2018, 01:27 PM   #8
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I think the 15400 will be discontinued soon, but not this year. There's an entirely new line coming out this year at SIHH 2019 (according to what the CEO said at SIHH 2018), so I can't imagine that they'd come out with the 15400's replacement at the same time. I'd say SIHH 2020 at the earliest, would guess SIHH 2022, but wouldn't be overly surprised if it made it until SIHH 2025 or even later.

Prices are increasing not because of impending discontinuation, but because demand is huge right now. At some point, the economy will crack and prices will fall on everything, these included.
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Old 17 September 2018, 11:26 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mobster600 View Post
I could see the 15400 being discontinued. They will make a newer updated version with a clear case back, smaller case, maybe update the clasp, etc

Companies make money by releasing new stuff LOL

My question is not if, but WHEN they will AP cut the 15400?

If they didn’t, we would all say AP RO line is stale and needs a refresh
Clear case back is already there
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Old 17 September 2018, 11:58 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mobster600 View Post
I could see the 15400 being discontinued. They will make a newer updated version with a clear case back, smaller case, maybe update the clasp, etc

Companies make money by releasing new stuff LOL

My question is not if, but WHEN they will AP cut the 15400?

If they didn’t, we would all say AP RO line is stale and needs a refresh
As another memeber has mentioned, transparent case back has been there since the 15300. Are you thinking of the chrono?

No need for a smaller case size, the public has 3 options to chose from. 37, 39 (jumbo), 41. Anything smaller would create some canabilism.

Clasp is already regarded as one of the best double deployment clasps out there. There is certainly always room for replacement but all these elements you want updated are existing.

But yes, like any model in history there will be an update. I just don’t see modern APs need that much of a refresh. All you might see is an “mk3” update of certain design elements. There was a slight tweak in 2015 already.
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Old 18 September 2018, 01:07 AM   #11
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I was told by the NYC boutique and an AD that the 15400OR was now discontinued, at least with a blue dial.
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Old 18 September 2018, 02:13 AM   #12
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Now that I think about it - Genta designed the Royal Oak in 1972. If anything I’d bet there will be a refresh for the 50th anniversary, moreso than just a special edition?
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Old 18 September 2018, 02:47 AM   #13
sathwik
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I was told by the NYC boutique and an AD that the 15400OR was now discontinued, at least with a blue dial.


Heard the same thing myself on 15400or
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Old 18 September 2018, 02:56 AM   #14
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I also have to add, when I see my 15400or against the 15202 the proportions are just not perfect. The 15202 is just perfect. The case back surrounding the glass is too wide and the front face/bezel just don’t look and blend in harmony as the jumbo! We all are now expecting the royal oak Chronograph with in house movement (for quite sometime!) and perhaps a display case back, which might also coincide with the Redesign of the entire royal oak aesthetics. Come on, we don’t expect haute horology maker to introduce their first in house Chrono in an existing model do we? It’s like serving new wine in old bottle!

P.s I think Rolex did a great job with DD40 aesthetically! It now looks like the original 36mm, the DD II was just not proportional and right for me!
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Old 18 September 2018, 03:07 AM   #15
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Before all these SS sports watch craze, the 15400s are actually the bread and butter of AP Royal Oak offerings. More "wallet friendly" compared to the 15202s and is the entry level timepiece for collectors starting an AP collection. It still is, just harder and harder to get. So I doubt they will be discontinued. Maybe AP will refresh the line with some cosmetic enhancement, kind of like what they have been doing with the diver range.
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Old 18 September 2018, 07:30 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sathwik View Post
Ps. I bought my 15400or brand new at 40% off MRP. This high discount in grey market usually happens toward the end of a particular models lifecycle. And suddenly prices go up after they discontinue. Do you agree?
100% agree
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Old 21 November 2018, 03:04 AM   #17
rty2k
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any news? is AP going to discontinue the 15400?
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Old 21 November 2018, 04:58 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by T3F View Post
I think the 15400 will be discontinued soon, but not this year. There's an entirely new line coming out this year at SIHH 2019 (according to what the CEO said at SIHH 2018), so I can't imagine that they'd come out with the 15400's replacement at the same time. I'd say SIHH 2020 at the earliest, would guess SIHH 2022, but wouldn't be overly surprised if it made it until SIHH 2025 or even later.

Prices are increasing not because of impending discontinuation, but because demand is huge right now. At some point, the economy will crack and prices will fall on everything, these included.
So,No idea right?
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Old 21 November 2018, 10:33 AM   #19
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any news? is AP going to discontinue the 15400?
Considering AP have only really just phased out the whole 39mm range excluding the 15202 I can’t see them changing the 15400 yet.

They now have a 37mm and 41mm mainstream lines with the 39mm reserved for the extra thin, where can they go with the 15400?

No doubt materials, dial colours and maybe minor tweaks will happen which may or may not come with a reference change but in essence the 41mm 15400 is here to stay I believe.
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Old 21 November 2018, 11:44 AM   #20
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Its tiring to see different materials on ROs without any innovation.
I wont be surprised to see ceramic bezel, full ceramic (like "Knight"), full platinum (reference number IPP?) ROs in next few years.
To me, 15400 wont be discontinued anytime sooner.
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Old 21 November 2018, 12:51 PM   #21
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15400 needs to get to 5711 level first
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Old 21 November 2018, 06:26 PM   #22
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15400 needs to get to 5711 level first
LMAO and what level is that? What can you objectively state is better on the 5711 than the RO? Besides finishing which can be arguable among both, what else?
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Old 21 November 2018, 06:33 PM   #23
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There is nothing that indicates that the 15400 will be discontinued, it is the newer more modern interpretation of the classic 39mm Royal Oak with a true in-house movement. It fits nicely on top of the size range 37mm > 39mm > 41mm, I don't see any reason why it would be discontinued. It seems to have hit the peak in its popularity, is in much demand, and sold out at every AD/boutique I have been to in the US in the last year or so. I am also kind of doubting you bought brand new RO even in gold at 40% off in today's watch environment.
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Old 21 November 2018, 10:19 PM   #24
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Quote:
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Considering AP have only really just phased out the whole 39mm range excluding the 15202 I can’t see them changing the 15400 yet.

They now have a 37mm and 41mm mainstream lines with the 39mm reserved for the extra thin, where can they go with the 15400?

No doubt materials, dial colours and maybe minor tweaks will happen which may or may not come with a reference change but in essence the 41mm 15400 is here to stay I believe.
Camo.
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Old 21 November 2018, 10:21 PM   #25
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LMAO and what level is that? What can you objectively state is better on the 5711 than the RO? Besides finishing which can be arguable among both, what else?
Agree, they are both very similar in quality, arguably the 15400 dials are more modern and dynamic than the Nautilus SS dial and more akin to the platinum Naut dial.
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Old 21 November 2018, 11:57 PM   #26
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The boutiques take deposits for delivery of 15400 in Q1 next year, a mate of mine just did it today, with delivery of the blue dial promised around Mar-April next year...so no, they are not being discontinued, far from it.
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Old 22 November 2018, 02:25 AM   #27
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Camo.
Camo and catches the light like a disco ball

People knock the Camo but it’s selling and from what I’m told quite a popular model!
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Old 22 November 2018, 05:28 AM   #28
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let me rephrase my question... will it be re-designed? keeping the 41mm size in the RO line
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Old 22 November 2018, 06:09 AM   #29
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let me rephrase my question... will it be re-designed? keeping the 41mm size in the RO line
I don't understand... Redesigned? Like a hexagon instead of an octagon? It was introduced in 2012 and has their in house movement, it's selling like hotcakes and there is a shortage (or higher demand?) I don't see why AP would mess with this formula and create an unnecessary redesign or discontinuation.
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Old 22 November 2018, 09:00 AM   #30
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Many do not like the size of the 15400; it looks humungous on a lot of wrists . A new 39mm RO would be a huge seller too ; the Jumbo is very pricey and almost impossible to get, so wouldn't it make sense for AP to introduce a new , entry-level 39mm RO with better proportions than the former 39mm 15300 ?
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