Question: Do Grand Seiko limited editions hold their value?

[Runny Eggs]

Hi all,

So I've put in a down payment for the SBGE249, a 250 piece run from timeless luxury (sorry! I can't post links!). I'm not a rich man, and I never thought I would make an impulse buy for such a high-ticket item. But it's exactly all I ever wanted in a Grand Seiko, and I've been thinking on that for more than a year. Also, I was nervous I might miss this opportunity. I am buying this as a watch I'll wear 2-3 times a week that I don't ever plan to sell or flip.

That said, who knows what life brings me, and where my collection goes.

After my last Tudor I promised myself I wouldn't buy new again! I told myself I would buy sensibly on pieces that will retain value, or buy a good discounted rate. I see that SBGA211 has very marginal depreciation on Chrono24, but I can't guess what it actually sells for.

What do you guys think? Can I hope for a similar value retention?

PS: While I got you here, I plan to put this bad girl on a blue leather strap. Throw out some suggestions

[1William]

My experience in following values for Seiko and Grand Seiko tells me that SE or LE items do very well in value retention. If you look at some of the Trusted Sellers here on TRF you will see a number of Grand Seiko watches and most can be purchased at significantly less than MSRP. The SE/LE watches though typically track just short of retail or over. You should not have a issue as you do not plan on selling the watch but we all know things change and if they should you would be fine in the current market.

[MSchu]

I'd have to say the GS holds or retains a large percentage of its initial value at a higher rate than the large majority of the watch makers out there... including high-end makers... but they aren't in a similar league as Rolex... yet.

Expect -10/-20% in the first year then a plateau to -30/-40% ongoing... it's still a little early for the 2017+ GS branded goods which are in higher demand.

This is the major issue I have with a large amount of yearly variants... it tends to crush the secondary market because many will want to sell to get a new variant... this has the effect of leaving a large stock supply on the secondary market which depreesses it and lowers value.

[Cru Jones]

Originally Posted by Runny Eggs

But it's exactly all I ever wanted in a Grand Seiko, and I've been thinking on that for more than a year. Also, I was nervous I might miss this opportunity. I am buying this as a watch I'll wear 2-3 times a week that I don't ever plan to sell or flip.

I think you’ve more than answered your question here.

[pkincy]

It is hard to not look for a "good" deal when one is available, but in my experience waiting for only the "good" deal makes you miss out on the best things in life, which typically go for retail or more. I like the watch you have chosen. Wear it in good health. And the LEs tend to do better than most. Look up the Peacock for instance. I don't think you can find it used for anywhere near its MSRP of $6500. Now whether your watch will hold its value like the Peacock only time will tell.

[mgsooner]

I saw a SBGW253 listed for 8500 recently. That’s like 3 grand over retail.

[Runny Eggs]

Thanks for the informed opinions. We'll see if this piece hangs in there with the best of them.

I'll be sure to post an incoming when it arrives.

[MSchu]

Listing a thing and selling a thing a thing are... well... two different things.
As with 18,000$ 126710blro's, just because you make an artificial value based on whether or not some person will eventually pay that amount doesn't mean it's an accurate representation of market values.
Those watches you see listed for inflated pricing have been sitting on the for sale scene for months on end if not more than a year.
A mint snowflake is worth around 4300-4600$... new unsold might be available for right around 5000-5100

[JParm]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

I saw a SBGW253 listed for 8500 recently. That’s like 3 grand over retail.

I bought my SBGW253 from a forum member for under 6k just this year. I will say that this piece is just a bit different than the rest due to the history / different GS configuration, so I expect it to hold value through the years (obviously biased opinion!).

[mgsooner]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I bought my SBGW253 from a forum member for under 6k just this year. I will say that this piece is just a bit different than the rest due to the history / different GS configuration, so I expect it to hold value through the years (obviously biased opinion!).

One of my favorite watches to be released over the past few years. They absolutely nailed the proportions on this one.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

One of my favorite watches to be released over the past few years. They absolutely nailed the proportions on this one.

I was thinking about moving this and the DD40 for a RG AP, and the minute I strapped this back on, I was like NOPE. The SBGW253 is just too nice.

[jcarm981]

There are a couple trading at or above retail but most are little bit lower. The peacock is one that’s super popular and has done well and the sbga387 tends to be pretty close and a lot of people think that will do well over time. But if you are going to keep it shouldn’t matter all that much - just enjoy they are great watches.

[SUPERDOC]

The Timeless edition is a great watch, and a cool dial.. but remember it is a "limited edition" of a jewelry store... 250 watch sales for seiko to the jeweler - so it was just good business for GS, in so much that it was easy money.. guaranteed sale of 250 units to a single customer, using a dial they already had in stock (and have used), a case they have in regular production, a movement that they make by the truckload, and all they had to do was engrave "timeless luxury jewelers" on the back..

not exactly the kind of thing that creates emotion... and the small market doesn't exactly generate FOMO in the masses that would pay premiums to allay their fears...

The Peacock, and the SBGA387 - were global and USA edition pieces with inspired, unique designs and original dials not seen before... the broader awareness and limited numbers have created a strong secondary market..

so - buy it if you love it... but don't expect anyone other than obsessive collectors looking to own every single Limited Edition, or anyone out side of a 20 mile radius, to be too excited to celebrate a jewelry store in Texas..

[Cru Jones]

Originally Posted by SUPERDOC

The Timeless edition is a great watch, and a cool dial.. but remember it is a "limited edition" of a jewelry store... 250 watch sales for seiko to the jeweler - so it was just good business for GS, in so much that it was easy money.. guaranteed sale of 250 units to a single customer, using a dial they already had in stock (and have used), a case they have in regular production, a movement that they make by the truckload, and all they had to do was engrave "timeless luxury jewelers" on the back..

not exactly the kind of thing that creates emotion... and the small market doesn't exactly generate FOMO in the masses that would pay premiums to allay their fears...

The Peacock, and the SBGA387 - were global and USA edition pieces with inspired, unique designs and original dials not seen before... the broader awareness and limited numbers have created a strong secondary market..

so - buy it if you love it... but don't expect anyone other than obsessive collectors looking to own every single Limited Edition, or anyone out side of a 20 mile radius, to be too excited to celebrate a jewelry store in Texas..

Wow, this is off on so many levels.

For many, this particular combo of GS attributes is exactly what they’ve been waiting for. Yes, the bits all exist, but the mix is special.

Furthermore, the LE inscription doesn’t menton the store. And it isn’t just any “jewelry store”, Timeless is a major early adopter and proponent for GS in North America. Which is why they had the opportunity to do this watch. The watch is both a collaboration and a celebration.

Anyway, you’re right about “buy it if you love it”.... in the end, that’s all that matters.

[Runny Eggs]

Ah, now we're getting into the interesting bits. Yeah, I agree Timeless Luxury does not add value -- even a little. it's definitely not Tiffany's, Bucherer, or even Torneau. But, it was the first US "specialist boutique", whatever that means. That's something.

But I have to echo the comments above; this is just the right ingredients to create that special sauce I (and maybe a lot others) were looking for: steel case; snow inspired dial, blue steeled accents, GMT function. It's just, wow, and I had to wonder if someone reached inside my brain to pull this thing off.

I think at the end of the day, the value will depend on how well the Grand Seiko line does in the long term, and if masses agrees with me that this is a knockout combo.

[SUPERDOC]

Originally Posted by Cru Jones

Wow, this is off on so many levels.

For many, this particular combo of GS attributes is exactly what they’ve been waiting for. Yes, the bits all exist, but the mix is special.

Furthermore, the LE inscription doesn’t menton the store. And it isn’t just any “jewelry store”, Timeless is a major early adopter and proponent for GS in North America. Which is why they had the opportunity to do this watch. The watch is both a collaboration and a celebration.

Anyway, you’re right about “buy it if you love it”.... in the end, that’s all that matters.

I agree it's a great watch.. but the question was of value retention.. 250 is a nice limited number, and I think they will sell all of them, but you would need to have enough secondary demand for that particular model, that would warrant a premium compared to, say, getting a discount on the white miwate dial GMT... and would have to have enough emotional investment in the "early adopter boutique" or the design itself to drive prices up.... add to the fact that many big us clients will soon want their own... toppers jewelry edition, karat and Co. Edition, watches of Switzerland edition etc..
From a "speculators " perspective, another LE is always coming up...
Now this could go viral and be the next snoopy, but that watch had so much intrinsic emotional value for so many...

I am just giving a genuine perception from the "value retention" question..(one that I actually hate)
I may even reach out to TL to pre-order because I agree that the dial and blue GMT is fantastic, but I am not going in with any delusional sense of "good investment "...

But this is how Rolex has somewhat stripped the joy out of the hobby... now that question gets asked more than ever

[Cru Jones]

Originally Posted by SUPERDOC

I agree it's a great watch.. but the question was of value retention.. 250 is a nice limited number, and I think they will sell all of them, but you would need to have enough secondary demand for that particular model, that would warrant a premium compared to, say, getting a discount on the white miwate dial GMT... and would have to have enough emotional investment in the "early adopter boutique" or the design itself to drive prices up.... add to the fact that many big us clients will soon want their own... toppers jewelry edition, karat and Co. Edition, watches of Switzerland edition etc..
From a "speculators " perspective, another LE is always coming up...
Now this could go viral and be the next snoopy, but that watch had so much intrinsic emotional value for so many...

I am just giving a genuine perception from the "value retention" question..(one that I actually hate)
I may even reach out to TL to pre-order because I agree that the dial and blue GMT is fantastic, but I am not going in with any delusional sense of "good investment "...

But this is how Rolex has somewhat stripped the joy out of the hobby... now that question gets asked more than ever

All fair points. I think overall, the excellent package + 250 examples will “at worst” limit a bit depreciation, which already is a good thing.

Will this increase in value above MSRP? Impossible to predict and quite unlikely, since there isn’t anything “spectacular” about it, as you rightly say, but I know it will make the lucky few owners very happy. Good enough for me.

[SUPERDOC]

Originally Posted by Cru Jones

All fair points. I think overall, the excellent package + 250 examples will “at worst” limit a bit depreciation, which already is a good thing.

Will this increase in value above MSRP? Impossible to predict and quite unlikely, since there isn’t anything “spectacular” about it, as you rightly say, but I know it will make the lucky few owners very happy. Good enough for me.

So true... I was going to add as advice to the OP.. that it unlikely that he will find one much less than MSRP... and if so, it would be years away, years that could have been spent enjoying the watch.. worth more than any few hundred dollars....

Also, a blue strap would look absolutely epic on this watch!