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Old 6 August 2022, 09:01 AM   #751
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Originally Posted by HAL330 View Post
when it bottoms out, it will turn on a dime. Always does.
No it doesn't. You were called on this falsehood earlier in the thread yet continue to repeat it. Even the charts you posted demonstrate the opposite.
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Old 6 August 2022, 09:20 AM   #752
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No it doesn't. You were called on this falsehood earlier in the thread yet continue to repeat it. Even the charts you posted demonstrate the opposite.
look again very carefully at those charts and tell me how long the down turns stay at bottom, 2001, 2008, etc.. ... they all "turn on a dime" .. (go from down to up, without a stagnation at bottom) that is a fact, and if you can't see that, you've failed basic math..

We can argue all day as to when this bottom occurs, but just as with the pronouncement of a recession is always delayed (especially when waiting on the BCDC), the recovery is also not recognized until the reverse is demonstrated..


Do what you want with your money, but I'm out buying assets right now.
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Old 6 August 2022, 10:10 AM   #753
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Some FPJ on there now.
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Old 6 August 2022, 11:06 AM   #754
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Do what you want with your money, but I'm out buying assets right now.
Buying assets isn't a bad idea; timing the absolute bottom is impossible (luck). I think where the differences of opinion in this thread lie (we both discussed this earlier), is that I'm not convinced that watches will continue to be considered an "asset class" after the recovery.

We have never seen this level of interest in watches before and there is no guarantee it will return. Sure, there were real collectors paying obscene amounts over MSRP, but there were more people buying watches (aka tulip bulbs) because it was easy money. When the dust settles, the majority of those will have exited the market.
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Old 6 August 2022, 11:13 AM   #755
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I also suspect many of the Covid buyers will have lost interest in watches once their busy lives resume.
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Old 6 August 2022, 11:28 AM   #756
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Do what you want with your money, but I'm out buying assets right now.
As long as it is not watches as "investment" (cough), it is fine. Maybe. (I personally doubt we have bottomed).

Regarding the watches, it has to be understood that the covid years have been a statistical anomaly in watch history. Buying a watch from an AD and making an instant gain of 30% or 2x, 3x, etc. was great but it is not healthy and cannot go forever.

An healthy situation (except newly released models or special models): Buy from AD, take a 20% hit, keep the watch for a long time, enjoy it or put it in a safe (who am I to judge), see its value increase every year very little by little but continuously.

About China, the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection is fighting harder than ever on corruption and "bad behavior" (because of the economical issues). Bad behavior includes showing wealth on Internet or publicly.
Zero-covid policy is the tree hiding the forest. The CPC is engaged in big challenges like corruption (bank, elite families, industry moguls, etc), keeping banks afloat (bank run, balance sheets, etc), construction industry (people refusing to pay, out of liquidity companies), technological war with the US (chip), unemployment, thin margins, companies leaving the country, etc.

People forgot that not long ago (2016, after China introduced new anti-corruption laws), Rolex was said to have bought and destroyed gigantic stock of watches (500M CHF by memory) to avoid a market price fall.

Richemont, 2017: "The Swiss watchmaker Richemont has destroyed nearly €500m (£437m) of its designer timepieces over the past two years to avoid them being sold at knockdown prices."

So forget about Chinese mainlanders buying watches or invest for a looong time.

With uncontrolled (now) inflation in most countries, we are heading back to normal. Facts are suborn things. :)

Take care and safe flight.
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Old 6 August 2022, 06:36 PM   #757
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AP oak offshore music addition
37 mm
Blue dial
Titanium
45k
No buyer for 15 hours already….
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Old 6 August 2022, 06:55 PM   #758
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AP oak offshore music addition
37 mm
Blue dial
Titanium
45k
No buyer for 15 hours already….
I don’t think anyone would want to be caught buying that abomination
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Old 7 August 2022, 12:14 AM   #759
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Just saw this.

Thank you
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Old 7 August 2022, 02:32 AM   #760
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New white gold olive dial dd now at 48k. Pepsi auction standing at 18.1k
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Old 7 August 2022, 03:12 AM   #761
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New white gold olive dial dd now at 48k. Pepsi auction standing at 18.1k

I'm still on list for that olive wg DD40 at AD. May not make sense to "waste a favor" on it at this point. That's only $4K over the out the door price at my AD.
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Old 7 August 2022, 04:33 AM   #762
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New white gold olive dial dd now at 48k. Pepsi auction standing at 18.1k
Wow that's crazy. I remember them being advertised around $30k-$32k and people were buying them... shows that there's always a "follow the herd" mentality
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Old 7 August 2022, 04:40 AM   #763
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Wow that's crazy. I remember them being advertised around $30k-$32k and people were buying them... shows that there's always a "follow the herd" mentality
I think there will be a disconnect for a little while longer. The herd doesn't realize the air has been let out of the luxury watch market yet. Once they do, you'll see less of that kind of behaviour.
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Old 7 August 2022, 05:57 AM   #764
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Wow that's crazy. I remember them being advertised around $30k-$32k and people were buying them... shows that there's always a "follow the herd" mentality

PM pieces like DD40 RG Olive are trending down. Most yellow gold is near retail right now. I think olive has a good ways down to go.


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Old 7 August 2022, 10:29 AM   #765
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Watchbox isn't buying anymore, only trades. The biggest preowned dealer who raised something like $350MM in the fall isn't buying. Still more downside to come.
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Old 8 August 2022, 12:04 AM   #766
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Aug 22 (no date) sub $11.4k from well known dealer.
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Old 8 August 2022, 01:51 AM   #767
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Most yellow gold is near retail right now. I think olive has a good ways down to go.
There is one listing on Chrono24 for a 228238 for $38,992. NIB but no card??

What is Moda pricing for the basic (full set) DD40 in YG?
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Old 9 August 2022, 02:23 AM   #768
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I noticed yesterday, that Takuya Watches started to drop some of his prices on various watches he has listed for sale.

Compared to MODA, his revised prices are sill high. He has some AP watches that are astronomical in price. They have been sitting for months. It's going to be interesting where prices will settle, as the year progresses.
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Old 9 August 2022, 03:24 AM   #769
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2021 black dial Daytona was sold at 26.7k at moda today

Feels like 20-22k is coming slowly but surly….
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Old 9 August 2022, 03:28 AM   #770
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Firm! No offers!!!

I know what I got!

The slowest to adapt to these price changes are going to get absolutely demolished.

Seeing the same thing in baseball card land.

It is super fun to add on the way up. Nobody wants to step in front of that falling knife on the way down.

No reasonable signs of a bottom.

Hulk 17K naked no takers. Hulk full set sold 17.7K

Full Set Black Daytona Sold 26.75K
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Old 9 August 2022, 06:45 AM   #771
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One more thought I am now 100% convinced that to mark the bottom you will have to see a top Grey dealer get liquidated.

From an unnamed dealer who used to pretty much track market and turn inventory quickly. These are all current asking with a recent MODA price in parentheses. I'm sure there are cheaper I'm not taking that long to search with the Facebook function which isn't the best. Now imagine you are underwater the below percentages times 100s of watches.

Rolex 116500LN Black 40,875 (Today 26,750)

Rolex 116505 RG Black 64,875 (Aug 1 52,000)

Rolex 116509 Meteorite 133,875 (July 2 shipped 65,500)

Rolex 116610LN 17,575 (July 19 10,750)

Rolex 228235 RG Olive 73,575 (June 2 58,800)

If you know how to wizard yourself out of that as a business then god bless.

So I'd look for a bankruptcy / liquidation / capitulation from at least one major dealer to mark the bottom.
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Old 9 August 2022, 07:29 AM   #772
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One more thought I am now 100% convinced that to mark the bottom you will have to see a top Grey dealer get liquidated.

...
I don't know if it will come to this, but if it does, the subsequent flooding of the market of that company's luxury watch inventory will provide another big push down in prices (although that last drop should be only temporary).
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Old 9 August 2022, 08:44 AM   #773
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One more thought I am now 100% convinced that to mark the bottom you will have to see a top Grey dealer get liquidated.

From an unnamed dealer who used to pretty much track market and turn inventory quickly. These are all current asking with a recent MODA price in parentheses. I'm sure there are cheaper I'm not taking that long to search with the Facebook function which isn't the best. Now imagine you are underwater the below percentages times 100s of watches.

Rolex 116500LN Black 40,875 (Today 26,750)

Rolex 116505 RG Black 64,875 (Aug 1 52,000)

Rolex 116509 Meteorite 133,875 (July 2 shipped 65,500)

Rolex 116610LN 17,575 (July 19 10,750)

Rolex 228235 RG Olive 73,575 (June 2 58,800)

If you know how to wizard yourself out of that as a business then god bless.

So I'd look for a bankruptcy / liquidation / capitulation from at least one major dealer to mark the bottom.
Sad, but you're probably not wrong.
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Old 9 August 2022, 09:33 AM   #774
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Black Daytona. Watch Only. 1 link short. SOLD 24900!
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Old 9 August 2022, 10:06 AM   #775
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Black Daytona. Watch Only. 1 link short. SOLD 24900!
It's so weird to me to see newer models sold 'watch only'..

Totally bizarre..I'd not buy one personally.
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Old 9 August 2022, 10:10 AM   #776
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It's so weird to me to see newer models sold 'watch only'..

Totally bizarre..I'd not buy one personally.
Agreed. Would be nice if there were some way to run them all through a lost & stolen registry.
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Old 9 August 2022, 10:10 AM   #777
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So I'd look for a bankruptcy / liquidation / capitulation from at least one major dealer to mark the bottom.
And when that happens, faith in grey market sellers could be impacted.
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Old 9 August 2022, 10:11 AM   #778
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It's so weird to me to see newer models sold 'watch only'..

Totally bizarre..I'd not buy one personally.
I agree with you 100%

It is not worth the discount to not get a full set.

I've owned some watches in the past that are extremely difficult to sell without papers. (16610LV Flat 4) and it is not worth the head ache. I think that watch had a 5-10K premium between being naked and being full set.

I am 100% confident you will not slip a 4 digit or 5 digit fake by me but the new modern watches that have attracted the attention of the super fakers.

No chance. Even with the case back open and movement exposed on some of them no chance. It is really tough to tell.
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Old 9 August 2022, 10:12 AM   #779
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It's so weird to me to see newer models sold 'watch only'..

Totally bizarre..I'd not buy one personally.

Totally suspect. I saw one guy ask a seller in there why no box and he said I bought it that way. I wonder how much of this stuff is not up and up.
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Old 9 August 2022, 10:25 AM   #780
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Totally suspect. I saw one guy ask a seller in there why no box and he said I bought it that way. I wonder how much of this stuff is not up and up.
All the boxes and extra gear being set aside and sold for $200 is bog standard at this point. Such a stupid practice but there really are piles of them at the AD and they are mostly interchangeable.

Card/no card is the heart of the issue.
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