Do we like Rolex scarcity?

[MinMay]

Yes. Love the scarcity of collecting watch like many other hobbies. If it was so easy, there will be depreciation, no wait list, no buyers, 50% or more discount, etc. Rolex will probably be out of business lol.

I doubt most people would paid 10k for a watch knowing it can be worth 5k down the road. Only reason why people buy it because it retains the best value among all brand.

[goldenboy80]

Whether or not you like the shortage depends on whether you still have access to watches, does it not? There is currently a shortage but I still seem to be able to get hard-to-find steel sports Rolex at ADs, despite not being a VIP or anything close to it. Hence, I like the perception that there's low supply because it helps the watches retain value. To get any piece you just need patience, persistence and creativity.

[javier]

The published prices here in TRF specially, and everywhere in general are obscene at this time.

[dtwer]

The answer is an unequivocal yes to me.

I don't flip watches, but I thoroughly enjoy the knowledge that I own things that are exquisite, durable, and highly sought-after.

As in all things in life, the ability to maximize up-side risks and to minimize down-side risks is an innate human quality. Pursuing things that hold long-term value, therefore, reflects the quality of one's decision-making in managing future risks.

That's why I understand the tremendous following of Rolex watches these days; people are seeking things that have the lowest down-side risk and that's great. This is what rational human beings do.

The problem comes when people are so hyped by the pursuit that they start to pay the irrational grey prices, the long-term value of those watches evaporates at that point.

[Piefacerecords]

Originally Posted by goldenboy80

Whether or not you like the shortage depends on whether you still have access to watches, does it not? There is currently a shortage but I still seem to be able to get hard-to-find steel sports Rolex at ADs, despite not being a VIP or anything close to it. Hence, I like the perception that there's low supply because it helps the watches retain value. To get any piece you just need patience, persistence and creativity.

As someone who does not have access to (Rolex) watches (or particularly likes have to beg to drop 5 figures on a watch that doesn’t even keep great time), I don’t love the speculation bubble that’s happening.

But every dollar spent speculating on jewellery is money not spent speculating on housing and baby formula and things people actually need to live, so whatever. There are plenty of WIS-friendly brands out there who have watches ready to sell.

[georgekart]

I will offer slightly different perspective. I think scarcity on an item like a Rolex watch is good, but the scarcity many SS sport models have is crazy. If Daytonas weren't readily available at ADs, but waiting 6 months could get you one, it'd be a reasonable middle ground. Those who want to pay MSRP for a new watch would wait, those who are OK paying extra would pay slightly more or get used for MSRP.

[Muxi]

Some members may not admit it but scarcity can be the collector’s fixation. The thrill of the hunt, the satisfaction of acquiring a coveted reference. I would probably not be as motivated or enthusiastic to buy a reference that is readily available as much as I would chasing a difficult to find one. After all, there are high horology models being discounted today that I won’t even give a second look.

However, as I have said before, Rolex durability is what keeps me coming back for more.

[dtwer]

Originally Posted by icnbne

Almost all other brands in the price have become redundant because everyone now wants a rolex. Either to flip, or because of fomo

I remember a time when IWCs, panerais, jlcs were serious competitors. The market was better for it too

We don't deign to speak of those other "things" at our table, we are the Rolex people, lol. J/K.

[101031-28]

Originally Posted by Lemieux66

Before the shortage/demand issues I was often told it was daft to buy at an AD as it was cheaper at grey dealers and that the ‘AD experience’ wasn’t worth the difference in cost!

Bottom line is, people wants the lowest price at purchase time, and the best chance of residual value once purchased.

Originally Posted by 3sheets86

I like the residual but on the other hand it can make you over conscious about what you wear and where you wear it which does take the enjoyment out of it.

Originally Posted by beshannon

I would prefer that watches be treated like watches and not bitcoin.

Sadly that has long passed and few actually care about the history, tradition and innovation that goes into a modern mechanical watch or clock.

Most are just looking for a quick dollar on a flip of a product that they do not even care about.

Agreed.

[VicLeChic]

I despise scarcity, shortage, lack of availability, controlled supply or whatever you want to call it. I don’t understand why Rolex keep on promoting products they can’t supply. I don’t believe someone who’s after sports steel will eventually settle for classic steel or go for TT / PM, in the vast majority of cases anyway. All this nonsense only creates poor AD experience and eventually spending your money elsewhere. It’s easy to lose customers but a lot more difficult to win them back. The demand seems to be vastly higher than supply, but if most potential buyers can’t buy what they want, it will wear thin in the end.

I value availability and a pleasant AD experience (as it used to be), a lot more than resale value in fact. I'm a buyer not a seller and I buy to wear. I don’t get easily bored with my watches and in the rare cases I do, I'm ok to face a depreciation if that’s the price to pay for availability.

All of a sudden any self-proclaimed pseudo-investor and their mother see huge potential in watches, as if you could make a fortune buying watches. This is like shoeshiners in 1929 advising on what stock to buy, before the debacle. So part of the problem is people are buying as investment when in the past people would buy to wear. But ultimately you can’t stop buyers from buying what Rolex are heavily promoting and only Rolex are responsible for the problem and capable of addressing it, i.e produce more desirable watches and less slow movers within the same total production capacity.

[cbalster]

As someone newer to watches, if not for the shortage, I am sure I probably would have bought a Submariner. Instead I ended up with a rose gold JLC Reverso Grande Triple Calendar Moonphase and a Tudor Black Bay Fifty Eight for what a new Sub Date sells for in the grey. I also added a Seiko 5 because it's only $100 and is pretty cool. I learned that what I want in a watch is not a Rolex. I like exhibition/display casebacks, date functions, and manual winding, and Rolex doesn't do that. The watch rabbit hole became deeper for me because the shortage made me move past just Rolex.

[johnjm]

I end up wearing watches for free, I don't complain except that I don't wear difficult to replace watches that much anymore because I won't be able to replace them at MSRP. I wore my Daytona for a few weeks and then saw the premiums and even asked my insurance if they would replace the item versus the insured value. It was the latter. Sucks.

I've only bought new and at MSRP though. I don't understand the need to pay double retail. Premiums are common, but double is too much for my mind.

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[Skylife]

Like when we own it, dislike when we dont own the watch.

[2nastie]

It’s always fun to see something you buy retain value and is hard to get. It’s human nature to be proud of owning something. It gives people a giddy feeling when they own something that’s not “readily available” or someone else can’t get it.

I don’t mind the scarcity on some pieces, there always should be a goal or dream watch, but we shouldn’t be in the situation where are all you can buy are DJs and DDs. Frankly even some SS DJs are hard to get now...

[JParm]

As an owner of the 3 Rolexes that I wanted (purchased before all this hysteria took place), I love it; value retention is always a positive.

BUT I also feel for those new to the game, as there's nothing more frustrating than having the money to purchase something at MSRP but not being able to purchase due to availability. I also feel bad for my brother, who wanted the BLNR for his wedding in April but couldn't get his hands on one for a decent price.

[maxymax]

It’s really pathetic most of what I’m reading here in this thread. As a watch enthusiast/WIS I’m only concerned with getting the best, wearing it, enjoying it and passing it on to next generation or trade it for the next one. I’m not a speculator, hoarder, investor, flipper, reseller etc. etc. to worry about most of the things what some of you are saying about holding value. I never ever worried about any of my watches holding it’s value. If I like it and it ticks my heart, even if it’s an Hamilton, I’ll just go for it. I would never worry about it holding it’s value. It’s just BS in IMHO!

[maxymax]

Originally Posted by peterpl

No I'd rather we as a community and hobby focus less on maintaining value and on the hobby itself. All this is also adding to very very shady deals happening everywhere along with big money laundering activities.

Horology is a hobby and it should remain as one. Turning into a tradable commodity takes the fun out of it as there are now 90% flippers and 10% true watch nuts that are on TRF for the love of watches.

As evident by the threads its all about how much will my $10k watch be worth in 3-4 years. I hope it reaches $20k blah blah blah. Its the same shit over and over and over again by people who just want to make a quick buck.

As soon as the watch game cools all these guys will be long gone and onto the next "hot" commodity trying to make a buck again.

Can't agree more, my friend

[a_plus1234]

Originally Posted by maxymax

It’s really pathetic most of what I’m reading here in this thread. As a watch enthusiast/WIS I’m only concerned with getting the best, wearing it, enjoying it and passing it on to next generation or trade it for the next one. I’m not a speculator, hoarder, investor, flipper, reseller etc. etc. to worry about most of the things what some of you are saying about holding value. I never ever worried about any of my watches holding it’s value. If I like it and it ticks my heart, even if it’s an Hamilton, I’ll just go for it. I would never worry about it holding it’s value. It’s just BS in IMHO!

I agree 100%- It's a watch. It should be available to anyone who has the passion for it in what it is- not what it's worth

[smym18]

I don't like the investment gang. I just want to be able to buy the only watch I want at retail - the 126710BLNR. No Daytonas, no SkyDwellers, just the BLNR.

[goldenboy80]

Originally Posted by maxymax

It’s really pathetic most of what I’m reading here in this thread. As a watch enthusiast/WIS I’m only concerned with getting the best, wearing it, enjoying it and passing it on to next generation or trade it for the next one. I’m not a speculator, hoarder, investor, flipper, reseller etc. etc. to worry about most of the things what some of you are saying about holding value. I never ever worried about any of my watches holding it’s value. If I like it and it ticks my heart, even if it’s an Hamilton, I’ll just go for it. I would never worry about it holding it’s value. It’s just BS in IMHO!

So let's say hypothetically you want to buy a new Submariner at an AD in 2019, wear it for 10 years, then sell it to fund a new Submariner manufactured in 2029. Would you rather have your old watch worth $8000 in ten years or $4000 when you go to trade it in? Most watches decline in value (25-50%) but Rolex historically hasn't. Is this pathetic or sort of practical?

[HappyFish]

Just ask your wifes if they would prefer a Louis Vuitton over a Hermes handbag! I know the answer!

[Dr. Robert]

No, non, nyet, nein.

[maxymax]

Originally Posted by goldenboy80

So let's say hypothetically you want to buy a new Submariner at an AD in 2019, wear it for 10 years, then sell it to fund a new Submariner manufactured in 2029. Would you rather have your old watch worth $8000 in ten years or $4000 when you go to trade it in? Most watches decline in value (25-50%) but Rolex historically hasn't. Is this pathetic or sort of practical?

To be honest, I don't care now nor would I in 10 years. So far I have never sold/traded any of my watches (too many to count). I see them as inheritance to my son & daughter. If at all my Rolex prices go down in future, so be it. If it comes to selling/trading them at that time it’s just what it’s worth at that time. Because I never bought them for their value retention in the first place.

[brucethemanlee]

Scarcity rules!!


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[Frits1980]

What scarcity? There are thousands of watches you can pick up today at list except a couple of ss from Patek/AP/Rolex. Maybe 20 models in total? Think a sec why exactly you are drawn to these specific hard to get models. Is it realy the watch (boy o boy the blro/hulk/daytona is soooo special) or is the scarcity the reason you think you want it.

[2nastie]

Originally Posted by maxymax

It’s really pathetic most of what I’m reading here in this thread. As a watch enthusiast/WIS I’m only concerned with getting the best, wearing it, enjoying it and passing it on to next generation or trade it for the next one. I’m not a speculator, hoarder, investor, flipper, reseller etc. etc. to worry about most of the things what some of you are saying about holding value. I never ever worried about any of my watches holding it’s value. If I like it and it ticks my heart, even if it’s an Hamilton, I’ll just go for it. I would never worry about it holding it’s value. It’s just BS in IMHO!

As a hobbyist, I completely agree. But it's naive and foolish to think everyone buying a Rolex or watch in general has the same agenda. Enthusiasts make up a fraction of the industry. The balance is filled by the rest you described and the general public.

It's not pathetic, it's the way all consumer goods work. It's not just affecting the watch community.

[RyanJ]

I think it is hilarious watching grown people desperately trying to buy a steel watch.

Scarcity you say? What scarcity? You are buying a mass produced watch. They are not rare. The majority of the "Incoming" posts on this forum are the same 2-3 type of watches over and over again.

Buy because you like it because you are not getting anything rare or unique. You are getting the same watch that many have. Anyone can have any of these models shipped overnight to their door.

[woodacre1983]

Unfortunately I got into watches a couple of years too late just as the shortage of SS was just starting.
I remember months before I had the money for my first Rolex I went into my local AD I was able to try the Sub and the Sub date plus the Deepsea. No issues all was in the window display.
When I bought my first the 14060 I was quoted 8 month wait for a Sub but I was after the older model anyway as it fit better. For me I’m into watches because they interest me. I buy what I like. What I want to wear. Not what I feel will increase in value. The one thing I hate in this hobby now is people buying their second choice as it’s more of an investment and then being scared to wear them as they don’t want to damage their investment. I think the hobby would be far more fun without the silly prices on huge grey market.


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[ALF61]

What´s the problem people ? most Rolex models are well available at MSRP. The problem is that there are watches everybody now wants (SS professionals). It is not all hype it is just that the watches are a bit too popular and well this is now what happens. I bet Rolex would like other models to be as popular as well but that ain´t so it is not their fault.

I would say that the real problem is the way some ADs allocate the watches to their great clients, leaving mostly everybody else uncared for.

[Largoshark]

It used to bother me quite a bit. But now I am totally satisfied with what I have, so I'm impervious to the scarcity. I've gotta say, it feels incredibly liberating, and I can now focus on other, far more important things.