I have a feeling we’ll see some of these wait lists reduced.

[m j b]

I'm firmly in the camp that totally disagrees with the OP's hypothesis.

I also agree with some of the other comments here, and right now I'm contemplating going back to Omega. I'm not going to pay a premium for a Rolex. If I could get a new sub at MSRP (and yes, I'm on the list) then I'll do that, but for half the price I can buy a new Omega which admittedly does not have the same resale value (i.e. I can't flip it at a profit) but in the end, it tells time just as well.

[MagPI]

Did you happen to see the stock market hit an all-time high yesterday?

[77T]

Originally Posted by MagPI

Did you happen to see the stock market hit an all-time high yesterday?

It always does...just before the correction/deflation/crisis/recession.

Not a prediction - just observation that past performance is not a guarantee of future results.


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[Brikev]

Walked into an AD last week thinking Rolex and walked out with an Omega. I suspect this is happening more and more.

[jrs146]

Originally Posted by ricardo-sf

The SP500 is up 25% YTD .. (partly helped by the dip in dec) .. where do you think its going for the next 8 months in this year?

(BTW - if you know the answer to this, then you should be able to make enough money to buy as many BLRO's at market prices without batting a eye)

The bull market has been going on for so long, most people have forgotten what 2007 looked and felt like. -- demand for luxury goods is at all time high ..

who knows when the next real correction is coming -- discretionary spending will shrink .(there will still be people buying plenty of rolexes) one day when portfolios take a 30% - 40% loss ..

i think thats what will clear out the waiting lists. -- you'll still have a hard time finding rolexes (thats the new normal).. but you'll be able to buy the watch you want by just waiting a few months.

the current situation will hold until something changes.. either the demand drops, and it would take a global slowdown for that to happen, given that rolex is such a global status symbol, or supply increases.. from what i understand rolex does not have a track record of radically changing supply to meet demand.

This ^^^^


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[cascavel]

Originally Posted by watchwatcher

I have a feeling we're going to see unicorns with rainbows coming out of their butts, too.

Both theories, yours and mine, are based on the same amount of factual information.

No, you're wrong, unicorns with rainbows is much more likely and, I believe, there is even more factual information to support it than there is to support a theory about Rolex doing anything to satiate demand for their most desired references.

[007timer]

Originally Posted by Turnaround

All speculation of course, but want to entertain a simple, yet mature discourse.

I feel if they let the flood gates open for a bit, consumers will feel confident to purchase and the Rolex stance of holding at MRSP will sell off much of the wait lists that currently hold firm. Then “pop”, goes the bubble. Debts need to be paid off, housing markets will halt or flounder, and Rolex’s wait has paid off. Have they done this before? No, but they have have a lot of experience playing the market, for which they own.

You do have a point with external factors having an impact on luxury items. The economy will correct, and that will have the most impact of “the list” more than anything else. As discretionary spending for luxury goods goes down, reducing the number of individuals willing to buy hence shortening the list & wait time.

But again....it’s all speculation


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[bobernet]

People here regularly confuse their interests: “I want the watch I want now, at MSRP. I want a huge selection to try on in every AD all the time.” with Rolex’s interests as the most successful luxury/lifestyle brand in the world.

[ricardo-sf]

Originally Posted by ninjin

It's all and well quoting the SP500 but Rolex are not just sold in the USA. USA I imagine takes a fraction of the allocation compared to the rest of the World.

I think Rolex Grey prices will not move much in the foreseeable future but taking only the SP500 as reference and not other Countries stock markets is very blinkered and dangerous.

true - i think you would have preferred i use an index such as this to backup my point:

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual...formance/vtwsx

the vanguard whole world stock fund

average yearly returns for the last 10 years are: 12% annually (<--- that is pretty crazy)

i think that pretty much explains the shortage in luxury goods like rolex.

[casadecamporolex]

Been a Rolex guy for nearly 5 decades. Seen lots and experienced more.
As a world traveler and observer of many cultures, I can tell you the phenomenon of Rolex market insanity has, like the US stock market reached an all time high.
When the waitstaff at luxury hotels and restaurants from Tokyo to Toronto know the difference between a Pepsi and a Batman, the brand awareness is full tilt.
Another example....I live in the Dominican Republic for the winter and have been coming here for 30 years. It wasn’t until 2 years ago that the wealthy of this country wore a fine watch. Now, nearly all wear Rolexes. If that is happening throughout the world, which it is, demand far outstrips the supply.
Years ago, a typical Rolex wearer had one. Today, the average newbie is already looking for his second watch right after he gets the first.
There will be no bubble burst as Rolex is a controlled product.
And please, Omega is never going to be Rolex.

[ricardo-sf]

Originally Posted by casadecamporolex

Been a Rolex guy for nearly 5 decades. Seen lots and experienced more.
As a world traveler and observer of many cultures, I can tell you the phenomenon of Rolex market insanity has, like the US stock market reached an all time high.
When the waitstaff at luxury hotels and restaurants from Tokyo to Toronto know the difference between a Pepsi and a Batman, the brand awareness is full tilt.
Another example....I live in the Dominican Republic for the winter and have been coming here for 30 years. It wasn’t until 2 years ago that the wealthy of this country wore a fine watch. Now, nearly all wear Rolexes. If that is happening throughout the world, which it is, demand far outstrips the supply.
Years ago, a typical Rolex wearer had one. Today, the average newbie is already looking for his second watch right after he gets the first.
There will be no bubble burst as Rolex is a controlled product.
And please, Omega is never going to be Rolex.

^^^^---- true dat ..

I didn't think i would ever buy a rolex .. and now i am planning on a second one, only 4 months after purchasing my first one.

Rolex has great brand recognition and its a worldwide status symbol .. coupled with the entry point into the brand being attainable by many people .. (even if you have to finance it) .. and this is a perfect storm for Rolex SA.

[johnjm]

My world of Rolex began in 1993 when I found a box in my father's cupboard. It has two rolexes inside, a 1955 OP that my grandfather wore and a 1969 that my father used to wear in his early days. I was 13 years old.

I wore that watch from age 13 to 23 every day without fail. That was my introduction, and the funny thing is that somehow I knew what it meant without the internet or anything. Maybe it was national geographic that made me connect the brand.

Anyway, so that's why I dig it. Maybe it's nostalgia that connects me to the brand but there is no denying that people want it more than ever.

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[Roy7]

Originally Posted by Turnaround

Just a gut feeling.

I think that Rolex will beat the bubble and let out some of these piece that have long wait lists. The bubble will come, and grey markets will go red, but Rolex has already seen the writing on the wall.

I bet we’ll see Daytona quotas being met. I bet we’ll see SkyDwellers being met and many of the SS lists as well. Why? Because they know how much are needed, and they see the bubble burst coming.

I’ll take that bet.

Speaking with my AD the limited supply is helping ADs by building more customer-AD loyalty than before, and bring other (non watch) business that would have otherwise gone to another jeweler/ebay/etc.

When the demand diminishes they’ll just reduce the numbers available.




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[uncleluck]

People talk of restricted supply etc...

Can anyone tell me some numbers from Rolex as to exactly how much they’ve pulled back manufacturing please?

I still think people are confusing restricted supply with grey dealers and scalpers getting all the watches.

Chrono24 would suggest its easy to get a new Pepsi (if your pockets are deepe enough) that doesn’t say to me it’s Rolex at fault!

[JR16]

Originally Posted by uncleluck

People talk of restricted supply etc...



Can anyone tell me some numbers from Rolex as to exactly how much they’ve pulled back manufacturing please?



I still think people are confusing restricted supply with grey dealers and scalpers getting all the watches.



Chrono24 would suggest its easy to get a new Pepsi (if your pockets are deepe enough) that doesn’t say to me it’s Rolex at fault!

Totally agree. There is zero evidence that Rolex has decreased production.


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[Bigblu10]

Originally Posted by Turnaround

Just a gut feeling.

I think that Rolex will beat the bubble and let out some of these piece that have long wait lists. The bubble will come, and grey markets will go red, but Rolex has already seen the writing on the wall.

I bet we’ll see Daytona quotas being met. I bet we’ll see SkyDwellers being met and many of the SS lists as well. Why? Because they know how much are needed, and they see the bubble burst coming.

Do you know how funny that sounds? "How much are NEEDED". Does anyone really need a 10K-60K watch to tell them the time? C'mon man.

[Joesan]

What I don't understand is if Rolex is deliberately holding up stocks of their SS models or are they really busy with all their employees making watches all day long and they do not have enough employees to meet global demand?

Now if they have enough employees to meet global demand, then they cannot make these watches that exceeds demand and just stock the watches for no shit reason. On the other side if they want to deliberately create demand, then either they are working very slow in manufacturing... which means they pay their lazy employees salary for nothing? So what is it with Rolex and the SS models having a huge wait list all over the world?

[johnjm]

Originally Posted by uncleluck

People talk of restricted supply etc...



Can anyone tell me some numbers from Rolex as to exactly how much they’ve pulled back manufacturing please?



I still think people are confusing restricted supply with grey dealers and scalpers getting all the watches.



Chrono24 would suggest its easy to get a new Pepsi (if your pockets are deepe enough) that doesn’t say to me it’s Rolex at fault!

They aren’t grey dealers etc at fault. It’s those clients who are buying and flipping who are contributing to grey stock.

I’ve been offered money from a grey dealer for one or two of my watches while browsing at their stock. They offered me 50% more than mSrp to sell at for another 50% on top of it.

Someone said it somewhere. You know you are a watch collector or enthusiast when you would rather have the watch than the money.


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[Turnaround]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

Do you know how funny that sounds? "How much are NEEDED". Does anyone really need a 10K-60K watch to tell them the time? C'mon man.

Just goes to show the pettiness of this “hobby” of collecting watches. I have a few myself, but they weren’t “needed”.

I guess I need just one for my work. I do depend on it, and at $200/min, if I don’t time some of my responsibilities, even 10 min of downtime would be frowned upon, so I figure I need something reliable. It doesn’t need to be a Rolex, but that brand has a pretty good track record for tough watches.

But the sentence in question was more to do with Rolex having an understanding of the demand for certain watches based on the wait lists. I guess “need” was the inappropriate word.

Eh, but it’s a silly little “hobby” at most. I consider a hobby to be more creative rather than just purchasing an object. That’s just a personal opinion though. I’m not here to quibble over watches too much, but I do enjoy the brief discussions.

[LarsFS]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

....so you’re telling me there’s a chance!

[stylinleems]

Originally Posted by larsfs

ROFL ... Great movie!

[zengineer]

If you could walk into any AD and buy any Rolex you wanted how long do you think it would take before they started discounting to get your business, and how long after that would value retention of used ones drop to Omega- like levels? And ag some point they have to even consider lowering prices which is the death of a luxury brand. I assure you, Rolex HQ isn't having all night meetings trying to meet 100% of current demand.

[rudestew]

Maybe not but how many have gone to other brands ? its an eye opener when you look

[RyanJ]

Originally Posted by bobernet

People here regularly confuse their interests: “I want the watch I want now, at MSRP. I want a huge selection to try on in every AD all the time.” with Rolex’s interests as the most successful luxury/lifestyle brand in the world.

I don't disagree but Rolex is not the most successful luxury/lifestyle brand in the world. Definitely top 5-10 though.

[bobernet]

Originally Posted by RyanJ

I don't disagree but Rolex is not the most successful luxury/lifestyle brand in the world. Definitely top 5-10 though.

I guess it depends on whose rankings you use.

[rcb]

Hope the OP is right. Somehow, I doubt it :\

[dtwer]

My theory is, Rolex is purposely keeping supplies constant on the sought-after references no matter how crazy the market becomes. The company is not going to attempt to "get caught up" on the production to meet the current demand.

Doing so helps to cool off the market madness.

Starve the market long enough, and those who are currently chasing the SS sports out of FOMO or short term profiteering will eventually get fed up and start to chase something else. It's better than letting these non-believers crash the Rolex market with their blind speculations later on.

In any event, Rolex will sell out everything they make and meet their revenue target all the same.

[inadeje]

orwellian predictions

[Calatrava r]

I hope so. I have been waiting three years for the Daytona C white dial with no hope in sight.

[RyanJ]

Originally Posted by bobernet

I guess it depends on whose rankings you use.

Yep. Everyone has their bias. I am focusing on value. I love looking at statistics like this.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnb...cci-leads.html

Another that is based on "popularity"
https://luxe.digital/digital-luxury-...luxury-brands/

Last one I swear...
http://travelmarketsinsider.net/luxu...rands-ranking/