Had a talk with my AD today....

[TheVTCGuy]

I went in my AD to pick up a Rolex Magazine (#8) they had gotten for me, and ended up having a nice conversation with the assistant manager. Now, I have bought... seven or eight Rolexes from this AD (Ben Bridge) over the last 10 years. All SS. So am I a high-roller? Hardly, but through my relationship with them I have been able to purchase a couple very hard to get pieces, including an 116520 Daytona in 2008, a Ceramic Dayona the year it came out, and a pepsi late last year. I am not a big-spender by any stretch, but they seem to be honest with me, the point to all of this is I believe what the assistant manager told me. Here is what she said:

The number of SS sport models has gone down to nothing, they do not have a clue why and the rep was in yesterday with no answers. She said they had a total of three of the Basel 2019 releases. They are now TAKING orders for the DATEJUST 41, which won’t be filled until August. I asked her bluntly if the SS were going out the back door, i.e. to Gray dealers and she said absolutely no. I asked if Rolex was squeezing Ben Bridge out of the AD and focusing on their Boutiques only and she said she didn’t think so, the in town boutique had as little inventory as Ben Bridge (this is true, at least the display cases are as bare).

So..... proof! Ok, this really proves nothing, but I believe her and I believe that Rolex is just not supplying their ADs with product. Why? Great question, but I don’t believe what some TRFers have suggested, that Rolex is delivering the same amount of sports models to the ADs, but there is such a high demand they immediately go out the front door to waiting lists, or out the back door to grays. I just don’t think this is happening.

To sum it up, IMHO, Rolex is just not delivering product. Yes, there is an incredibly high demand, and yes as soon as they come in to an AD they are gone, but (again, IMHO and what my AD assistant manager says) the number of sports models Rolex is delivering is trickled down to nothing.

So, hey Rolex.. WTF?

[FistFlight]

Did your AD mention when their incoming shipments were reduced to nothing?

I think the number of shipments vary throughout the month. Just because it’s a little dry now doesn’t mean it won’t get wet next Thursday.

[FistFlight]

Also, the assistant manager likely wouldn’t know of any back door deals going on. That’s likely manager or owner’s intel only. That’s not to say that I believe they are selling them out the back door. Actually, I don’t think the majority of ADs would even consider it.

[Importer_Exporter]

I’m very curious as to which Ben Bridge. I managed to get my Pepsi from a BB in SD with very little relationship.

The manager I spoke with was amazing and treated us right.

[TswaneNguni]

AD which supplied my black SkyD and DJ41 blue fluted jubilee(2 months for both ) said ...they get roughly 1 Daytona a month ,around 6 white and 6 black per annum .
High demand ,many clients ,5 years before can deliver .Simple

Any AD claiming they don't get stock from Rolex have other agenda's in which you are not the beneficiary.
They don't know what Rolex will send them,but they get a list every month stating what they are getting that month.

ADs stating they are not getting stock are not moving stock and have the sporties in the cupboard.Rolex knows exactly what is in stock and haven't been sold. So if they stock up on Daytona's, they wont be sent new stock .If they sell to the grey underworld,it doesnt get ticked off on the system as sold .

Beware of the ADs claiming Rolex dont send them stock ..

[Tokyo Mike]

More back room BS. The fact people beleive this happens makes me laugh.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by Importer_Exporter

I’m very curious as to which Ben Bridge. I managed to get my Pepsi from a BB in SD with very little relationship.

The manager I spoke with was amazing and treated us right.

UTC, did you deal with Josephine?

[reddog4063]

I just think demand is really high. I can spot a rolex with the best of them and ive seen a ton of not-common ones on wrist in NYC lately. You always see subs and DJs but now i see all kinds of stuff from LVs to ceramic white daytona, on a lot more wrists. Plus the demand globally.

[rominvicta]

As of my AD supply rose about 50% since 2015 and demand by a 1000.
I believe either lady has not clue what is going behind her back or that is a policy to ease in advance anyones expectations and possibly prepare him/her for a bundle deal.

[johnjm]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

I went in my AD to pick up a Rolex Magazine (#8) they had gotten for me, and ended up having a nice conversation with the assistant manager. Now, I have bought... seven or eight Rolexes from this AD (Ben Bridge) over the last 10 years. All SS. So am I a high-roller? Hardly, but through my relationship with them I have been able to purchase a couple very hard to get pieces, including an 116520 Daytona in 2008, a Ceramic Dayona the year it came out, and a pepsi late last year. I am not a big-spender by any stretch, but they seem to be honest with me, the point to all of this is I believe what the assistant manager told me. Here is what she said:



The number of SS sport models has gone down to nothing, they do not have a clue why and the rep was in yesterday with no answers. She said they had a total of three of the Basel 2019 releases. They are now TAKING orders for the DATEJUST 41, which won’t be filled until August. I asked her bluntly if the SS were going out the back door, i.e. to Gray dealers and she said absolutely no. I asked if Rolex was squeezing Ben Bridge out of the AD and focusing on their Boutiques only and she said she didn’t think so, the in town boutique had as little inventory as Ben Bridge (this is true, at least the display cases are as bare).



So..... proof! Ok, this really proves nothing, but I believe her and I believe that Rolex is just not supplying their ADs with product. Why? Great question, but I don’t believe what some TRFers have suggested, that Rolex is delivering the same amount of sports models to the ADs, but there is such a high demand they immediately go out the front door to waiting lists, or out the back door to grays. I just don’t think this is happening.



To sum it up, IMHO, Rolex is just not delivering product. Yes, there is an incredibly high demand, and yes as soon as they come in to an AD they are gone, but (again, IMHO and what my AD assistant manager says) the number of sports models Rolex is delivering is trickled down to nothing.



So, hey Rolex.. WTF?

Global distribution had been changed. They send the supply to other regions.

You see it's weird, I don't have one AD that I deal with, I use about 5. What they tell me is consistent.

For example, this year they will receive 6 Daytona's, only 2 will be SS. Already allocated.

Subs and DJs are every month. The DH41 blue is currently in the show case and available. In December one had subs in the show case.

The demand where I live is driven by foreigners because converted it's dirt cheap.

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[Watchdaytona]

Just to clarify there are no Rolex Owned boutiques, they are owned by the large chains.

[Fredette]

Why would an AD get orders in just to have them go to the grey?

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[Tavli3]

The reason they would do that is that ADs are not allowed to sell over MSRP. So they sell to the Greys out the back door who sell the same watch for double or triple and they split the profits.

As for the shortage I think it's not that Rolex is producing less it's the fact that every AD & Boutique is ordering more. From what I have read here on the Forum is that 3=4 years ago most of these Hot Grail watches were sitting in the cases and could be bought at discount. So if your a business owner are you going to be ordering more of these watches? Answer is NO.

So any AD or Boutique who needed one of these models either had them or could order and receive very quickly. So there was slack in the system. Rolex produced 100% of predicted demand but actual demand was may be 80-90%. Thus the slack in the system because not every AD or Boutique was ordering these models, they were trying to sell off stock they had sitting the cases already.

Now take the same amount of watches produced and have to spread them out to every single AD & Boutique in the world and that's why you now have single digit amounts going to each AD/Boutique. There's is no slack in the system. And by the way I think this has a lot to do with Rolex closing up many ADs. They needed to reduce the number of outlets they had to spread a fixed amount of watches over. Expect closings to continue.

I think this artificial shortage has been caused by the crazy prices on the Grey markets. Not a healthy situation. It's hot money demand causing above normal artificial demand. The Greys are in control of the Rolex inventory worldwide and not the ADs/Boutiques. They are in a sense cornering the market. If Rolex ever tried to solve the supply problem by increasing supply the whole thing would blow up. They are hoping it just will deflate slowly and naturally.

I see a pin swirling around the world, it's only a matter of time till the bubble inflates big enough for the pin to find it. Then it will be time to buy. If you still want to!

[Fredette]

Didn't know the grey market split the profit with the AD. Interesting. Otherwise I guess there's be no incentive to give to a grey market company

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[brandrea]

I didn’t know you had a Pepsi and a Daytona Paul, how do I miss these things ... belated congratulations

As for what your AD said, I’m not sure what to think any more. Anecdotally my AD never has SS professional references in their display cases any more, mich like everywhere else. I guess the gray dealers get them from somewhere just not Ben Bridge

[Rocket_Man]

Originally Posted by Fredette

Didn't know the grey market split the profit with the AD. Interesting. Otherwise I guess there's be no incentive to give to a grey market company

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It's not so much splitting the profit but they both profit from the transaction. The AD has already paid for each watch they get from Rolex. They pay approx 60% of MSRP. So if they sell to a customer they profit ~40% of the MSRP of the watch. If they sell it above MSRP, could be many thousands who really knows, but they can increase their profit from their inventory. They leave the Grey with some profit as well.

Years ago the relationship was different.... the AD would force Greys to buy slow moving watches and sell at a discount so they can buy more from Rolex. Everyone here at TRF at that time happily bought from Greys (or Trusted Sellers) because they could get a good deal even on Subs and GMTs. Now that the market has changed, we all like to bash Greys because we're not getting those deals anymore. One day it will all change again.

[Brew]

I love visiting with "my" AD. Haven't been in months. I should take a ride. I'm not in the market for a new piece, but I do like looking at what's in the cases. We usually don't talk watch industry stuff; I'm not knowledgeable enough. But I do like trying on the different pieces. I should take a ride.

[DM101]

I also had a talk with my AD today -

1. Explorer 2 Polar are in more in demand compared with the Black version.
2. Explorer 2 they are also getting less pieces
3. Even Air King get moved very fast - they do not need to display it at all now as they get calls for this piece and get sold once stock arrived

[Spartacus]

Interesting stuff!

[The Libertine]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

So..... proof! Ok, this really proves nothing, but I believe her and I believe that Rolex is just not supplying their ADs with product. Why? Great question, but I don’t believe what some TRFers have suggested, that Rolex is delivering the same amount of sports models to the ADs, but there is such a high demand they immediately go out the front door to waiting lists, or out the back door to grays. I just don’t think this is happening.

To sum it up, IMHO, Rolex is just not delivering product. Yes, there is an incredibly high demand, and yes as soon as they come in to an AD they are gone, but (again, IMHO and what my AD assistant manager says) the number of sports models Rolex is delivering is trickled down to nothing.

So, hey Rolex.. WTF?

I agree. I just don’t believe that production can keep up with world-wide demand. It’s that simple.

[1William]

Interesting information and discussion. I have taken an attitude of just sit back and watch the show. At some point the market will turn and I am looking forward to that ride. The posts of people going crazy about the values of the watches they bought as investments crash through the floor with limited buyers. Should be entertaining. And I will buy some watch for a lot less than what they are trending for now.

[LuminousMaximus]

I can only say Props to Rolex for keeping this so tight lipped!

With all the people working at Rolex, no one here has any information directly from Rolex.

Even ADs can only guess

[karasus]

Take a look at the official swiss watch export numbers and you can see a large drop in the market for steel watch supply overall.

https://www.fhs.swiss/scripts/getsta...m_190505_a.pdf
https://www.fhs.swiss/scripts/getsta...a.pdf&previous

If we assume that Rolex is 1/3 of the supply, and they are the only ones reducing their steel supply then they are probably only producing 60% - 70% of what they used to make in SS models and its likely to keep going down.

Flip side precious metal watches with higher margins should be available since those quantities have been shooting up.

[ashernoah]

Originally Posted by reddog4063

I just think demand is really high. I can spot a rolex with the best of them and ive seen a ton of not-common ones on wrist in NYC lately. You always see subs and DJs but now i see all kinds of stuff from LVs to ceramic white daytona, on a lot more wrists. Plus the demand globally.

Same. I can say that in walking the streets of NYC, especially midtown, I’ve never seen so many SS sports Rolex on wrists. Yesterday alone I went out to pickup lunch and I saw a Hulk, an EXP2 black, 2 Daytona’s both pre-C and C, and 2 date subCs.

[JUSTIFIED]

I have a great relationship with my AD and am not a big spender by any means (3 watches in 3 years). I recently bought a 126660 (DSSD Deep Blue) that he had in the safe. On that same day, he had an SD50 in the safe. A week ago he had a ceramic Daytona in the safe. Thus, I don't believe he's selling out the back door. In fact, when I bought the DSSD he asked that I please not re-sell on the secondary market.

FWIW he told me demand is through the roof and that they've sold more SS watches this year than last.

[patrickjb]

Paul,

Sad to hear, although not surprised. I popped into BB @ UTC about 2 months back and it was pretty dire in there.

On the positive side, I had a great drink in the speakeasy just down the corner

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by DM101

I also had a talk with my AD today -

1. Explorer 2 Polar are in more in demand compared with the Black version.
2. Explorer 2 they are also getting less pieces
3. Even Air King get moved very fast - they do not need to display it at all now as they get calls for this piece and get sold once stock arrived

Exactly what’s been my experience with ADs in my area. In fact, The AK is the sleeper watch to pick up if you can at MSRP

[THC]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I didn’t know you had a Pepsi and a Daytona Paul, how do I miss these things ... belated congratulations :

Wow me either... Paul quit holding out on us,

[Cru Jones]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I didn’t know you had a Pepsi and a Daytona Paul, how do I miss these things ... belated congratulations

Originally Posted by THC

Wow me either... Paul quit holding out on us,

This and that!

[Kiddodoc]

My new AD told me they are having a banner year. He said the SS, when they get them,are in the safe and not in the case. They call their preferred customers when the desireables come in stock. I do believe some AD's get less SS stock than others. My rep said the one watch they get once a year.....the Skydweller in Blue.