Soft watch market at the moment?

[ansharma]

Hi all,

Thought this would trigger good debate, I am sure I am not alone in noticing the watch market is very soft at the moment. It seems like a good time to buy and a bad time to sell. I have also observed that many brands have not increased their prices in a while and some have recently decreased them which also ties in with the softening market.

The questions are:

How long is this phase likely to continue?

Are serious collectors concerned about the value of their watches?

Are you looking to take advantage by purchasing that grail piece at a good discount or looking to hold on to your pieces and avoid selling at a significant loss?

Look forward to your thoughts and have a great weekend.


Anuj

[Paul_I]

Would recommend you read the World Watch Report - they publish the quintessential annual report on the luxury watch market.

[joe100]

Really depends on the watch right now

[denvercenturion]

This phase is likely to continue until the economy of China settles down. The majority of high end watches end up in China, serious amount of business is done there. When they had their downturn it impacted the industry greatly which is why most brands didn't go crazy at SIHH or Basel. So for the rebound in the watch market to happen it is going to take some upturn in the world economies.

Serious collectors understand that watches are generally a long game and that in a few years time their collections will gain value. As any investor knows if you are in it for the long haul you have to get through the tough times as well.

I am certainly going to be taking advantage of this situation and pick up what I can in this market. When it turns good again ill stay reserved and probably pick up less and might sell somethings that I want to move.

[el1125]

I would agree it is currently a soft market. Good opportunity to buy!!

[joe100]

Originally Posted by el1125

I would agree it is currently a soft market. Good opportunity to buy!!

Unless you want a 1675! Haha!

[MILGAUSS88]

Originally Posted by denvercenturion

This phase is likely to continue until the economy of China settles down. The majority of high end watches end up in China, serious amount of business is done there.
.

Having sold low end watches and parts on ebay, the last few years, half of what I sold went to China.
This year virtually nothing.
They are buying some other stuff.
The watch market is not bad, But for the watch market to be rip roaring like it has been, you need China to be buying.

[kilyung]

A buyer's market!

[KarlS]

Good. I need / want / crave a Dato perpetual

[1William]

I think that prices fluctuate depending on the price and the brand. Some lines and models are hot and command true value and a premium. It is the other models and brands that are soft. Buy right based on the current market and stay away from obscure bands, models and references and you will be ok.

[Speed]

So please...can anyone tell me what "bargains" there are to be had - by brand/model...And real deltas in prices pre-softness and now.

Just a few examples would be nice

Thanks!

[el1125]

Originally Posted by Speed

So please...can anyone tell me what "bargains" there are to be had - by brand/model...And real deltas in prices pre-softness and now.

Just a few examples would be nice

Thanks!

I'm familiar with Patek and in their line the 5960 in all configurations has plummeted quite a bit. For a watch with a $90K approx MSRP that is down below $60 nowadays seems quite lousy...

[jschmidtdmd]

It is certainly a buyers market and I don't think we have seen the bottom yet. Just my personal opinion.

The top of the market pieces seem to be moving even slower. I look forward to others feedback on this.

All that being said, what do I know.

JPS

[Speed]

Originally Posted by el1125

I'm familiar with Patek and in their line the 5960 in all configurations has plummeted quite a bit. For a watch with a $90K approx MSRP that is down below $60 nowadays seems quite lousy...

Thank you.

Well < sigh >

Thankfully I'm not too keen on the 5960...but nice "discount" indeed for someone in the market.

[uri40]

How would you say AP is doing in general?

[ansharma]

Originally Posted by uri40

How would you say AP is doing in general?

It is one of the brands that I have avoided personally. There are just too many 'limited editions' and association with celebrities and I prefer the classic brands that generally avoid this such as Patek or ALS. I believe this is hurting AP's overall complexion but this is just my opinion.

[uri40]

Ok, but even the classic RO and ROO diver?

[GB-man]

Nothing is safe imho. I'm only buying watches I love, none for investment. Rolex is where I feel most comfortable both modern and vintage.

[madmax21]

I believe it's because the market is oversaturated it will only get worse

[jon_jon]

US Patek market hasn't recovered since the 10% price decrease a year or so ago. Rolex SS Sports model market is still solid. Price increases in the EU and Japan over the past few years will eventually affect those markets too as Chinese are not buying as much and I don't think the local economies will be able to support the price increases.

For a buyer, it is time to negotiate on the price and get some decent bargains. As a seller, you can cut your losses and move on or you may be stuck with some dead weight.

Like the stock market and real estate market, the luxury watch market will go through ups and downs. We are at a time of excess inventory.

[KarlS]

It's difficult for any luxury consumable at where to pitch a price when sales slow. You reduce price and you alienate the clients that just bought your goods and reset the preened market for all those before. In addition once you go lower its difficult to always go up and GT the original premium. I am surprised that they don't throw in free deployment buckles on some models etc. well PP been around a long time and will survive the Russians, Chinese and Koreans. Whole new world in India and Iran!!

[HL65]

Originally Posted by jon_jon

US Patek market hasn't recovered since the 10% price decrease a year or so ago. Rolex SS Sports model market is still solid. Price increases in the EU and Japan over the past few years will eventually affect those markets too as Chinese are not buying as much and I don't think the local economies will be able to support the price increases.

For a buyer, it is time to negotiate on the price and get some decent bargains. As a seller, you can cut your losses and move on or you may be stuck with some dead weight.

Like the stock market and real estate market, the luxury watch market will go through ups and downs. We are at a time of excess inventory.

Agree

[el1125]

Originally Posted by jon_jon

US Patek market hasn't recovered since the 10% price decrease a year or so ago. Rolex SS Sports model market is still solid. Price increases in the EU and Japan over the past few years will eventually affect those markets too as Chinese are not buying as much and I don't think the local economies will be able to support the price increases.

For a buyer, it is time to negotiate on the price and get some decent bargains. As a seller, you can cut your losses and move on or you may be stuck with some dead weight.

Like the stock market and real estate market, the luxury watch market will go through ups and downs. We are at a time of excess inventory.

This is true however on the high end, people/sellers are still NOT lowering prices too much. I have not yet seen such great deals to be had.

[el1125]

Originally Posted by el1125

This is true however on the high end, people/sellers are still NOT lowering prices too much. I have not yet seen such great deals to be had.

Besides less than a few Patek models, I have not yet seen any bargains from the brand...the RM brand also is not giving away anything. Actually, they are more expensive than ever...strange...

[texex91]

Originally Posted by el1125

RM brand also is not giving away anything. Actually, they are more expensive than ever...strange...

They cut back on inventory and pushed up demand/prices. RM is hotter than ever even in this 'soft market'

[themaninblack]

Originally Posted by jon_jon

US Patek market hasn't recovered since the 10% price decrease a year or so ago. Rolex SS Sports model market is still solid. Price increases in the EU and Japan over the past few years will eventually affect those markets too as Chinese are not buying as much and I don't think the local economies will be able to support the price increases.

For a buyer, it is time to negotiate on the price and get some decent bargains. As a seller, you can cut your losses and move on or you may be stuck with some dead weight.

Like the stock market and real estate market, the luxury watch market will go through ups and downs. We are at a time of excess inventory.

Quite right and we are in a time of excess inventory in most consumer goods, even at the luxury end in many cases. There are exceptions of course, some brands or models can hold their pricing but essentially there is too much "stuff" being manufactured in general and pricing eventually has to soften at least in the short term.

[icok]

I see the overall market is softening, maybe just handful of brands are still doing well.

this is the feedback from Emperor W&J, one of the leading luxury watch retailers HK & China.

"inventory turnover days increased from 316 days to 353 days. The decline in SSSg has not shown any sign of turnaround, deepening from -29% in FY15 to -30% in 1QFY16. The company will continue to negotiate with watch brands to swap slow-moving inventory, in particular higher ticket size items, to fast moving products."

[ILuvSubs]

Here is an editorial piece in Hodinkee regarding the soft watch market:

https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/am...hmaking-values

[themaninblack]

What do you do to help drum up business when the market is soft? You tell everyone that the market is soft so that they go out to snap up all of those good deals to be had! But in reference to the Hodinkee article I strongly disagree with their "chaotic world " conclusion. It's not chaotic, there is simply too much watch product on the market and the Swiss watch industry and their owners are responsible for that. Their sales and growth expectations are probably unrealistic and unsustainable. They have put themselves in a position that's vulnerable in an obviously changing world, not unlike the 70's Quartz crisis.

[KarlS]

I must say I didn't find any bargains in Hong Kong when I was there last week. Don't think ALS offered me more than 5% off and the price was still more than Harrods for goodness sake. My local Journe AD only has 3 watches in stock. The old CS in RG, the ugly Aluminium sports watch and a centigraph so they still moving stock. I did however pick up a Journe from USA not because I needed it but because the price was too good to ignore!!! Now if we can just get the Datograph down in the 30's and the PP 5170 I may start rubbing my hands together!!!