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Old 20 June 2019, 07:39 PM   #1
glamorama
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Don't blame Asia you say?

Yes I know we are all tired of investment and price threads, and this is one of those so you might as well stop reading now.

The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry released their May report. Export to China is up by 81% YoY in May. This does not include the export to China where they basically vacuum any watches they see as tourists in Europe and other places.

There is a bunch of other interesting facts to be read on that website, for example PM and TT is up by 20% and SS down 12% in number of units exported.

Source: https://www.fhs.swiss/eng/statistics.html
Screenshot 2019-06-20 at 11.30.35.png
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Old 20 June 2019, 07:41 PM   #2
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The word 'blame' suggests there is a problem.

The availability, or lack thereof of a luxury product can never be described as a problem in my view. It is by definition a nice to have thing that we do not need.
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Old 20 June 2019, 07:42 PM   #3
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Thanks for sharing.
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Old 20 June 2019, 07:51 PM   #4
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Hmmm not bad IMO. Thank you for the info.
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Old 20 June 2019, 07:54 PM   #5
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That really is the way the fortune cookie crumbles.


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Old 20 June 2019, 08:01 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by watchmaker View Post
The word 'blame' suggests there is a problem.

The availability, or lack thereof of a luxury product can never be described as a problem in my view. It is by definition a nice to have thing that we do not need.
Agreed

It's all a matter of perception.

The way I'm looking at it, it's not surprising to see China's Swiss watch volume to grow year-on-year because it's a rapid growing economy. The Chinese are the world's largest consumer of luxury goods according to a McKinsey report (among others) aaand it's projected to grow steadily in the next five years.

The Swiss watch industry is a business, after all, therefore it is just natural that more products are shipped in that direction.

Not to mention Asia's 4.5 billion population dwarfs (by comparison) North America's 579 million. Considering, for instance 5% of each of those population will buy Swiss watches, where would you naturally export most of your products?
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Old 20 June 2019, 08:02 PM   #7
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It's following a global economy and a cashed up new Chinese middle class who want luxury goods. I'd put money on the same figures for anything from designer handbags to six figure cars.
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Old 20 June 2019, 08:02 PM   #8
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Looks like demand is up then.
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Old 20 June 2019, 08:13 PM   #9
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Ghina
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Old 20 June 2019, 08:18 PM   #10
Muxi
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Blame sounds a bit harsh.
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Old 20 June 2019, 08:23 PM   #11
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Nice data
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Old 20 June 2019, 08:26 PM   #12
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And even when they aren’t being actually exported to China, so much of what goes to every other market finds its way to China anyway.


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Old 20 June 2019, 08:35 PM   #13
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Seems like some people take offence with the word 'blame', please just don't there is nothing there, just read it as "Increased demand in Asia" instead.

This forum is quite anglo-focused naturally and not everyone is aware that the economic powers have shifted from US/EU to the East or at least the scale and the volatility in demand it can create.

I'm simply stating the fact that DEMAND is UP, however there seems to be some truth to the other argument that SUPPLY IS DOWN, which it is for SS pieces but not PM.

Again this is overall industry statistics not just Rolex and it is on monthly basis which might vary a lot depending on holidays and length of month etc.
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Old 20 June 2019, 08:42 PM   #14
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Interesting Data. I would like to see the numbers broken out across the board for brands and how the other luxury items are selling. Women's purses, shoes etc. Thanks for the information.
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Old 20 June 2019, 08:52 PM   #15
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Interesting information. On the other end of the spectrum there’s Italy... is the economy struggling there? We just came back from vacation there and things looked vibrant from an outsiders perspective...
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Old 20 June 2019, 10:33 PM   #16
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It's following a global economy and a cashed up new Chinese middle class who want luxury goods. I'd put money on the same figures for anything from designer handbags to six figure cars.
I keep hearing about these newly minted “cashed up” Chinese folks who had nothing and are suddenly loaded and ready to spend massive amounts on a whim.

Where’d all this free money come from? The sky? The communist government? I’ve had to work my ass off for even a modest slice of the pie- maybe I should move to China?
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Old 20 June 2019, 10:45 PM   #17
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i guess people should blame their own countries and leaders for poor economic performance and themselves for not making more money
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Old 20 June 2019, 10:51 PM   #18
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Interesting information. On the other end of the spectrum there’s Italy... is the economy struggling there? We just came back from vacation there and things looked vibrant from an outsiders perspective...
I might be wrong but the national debt there is 143% of GDP. I guess if you borrow enough money you can party like there's no tomorrow.
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Old 20 June 2019, 11:06 PM   #19
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I might be wrong but the national debt there is 143% of GDP. I guess if you borrow enough money you can party like there's no tomorrow.
Close - 131%, although US is running at 105% on last published figures.
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Old 20 June 2019, 11:12 PM   #20
glamorama
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brandrea View Post
Interesting information. On the other end of the spectrum there’s Italy... is the economy struggling there? We just came back from vacation there and things looked vibrant from an outsiders perspective...
Quote:
Originally Posted by omx5o View Post
I might be wrong but the national debt there is 143% of GDP. I guess if you borrow enough money you can party like there's no tomorrow.
Italian economy is not good and has not been good since the financial crisis. I think people in the north are doing well mostly on an individual basis. Haven't followed closely lately but they still have a lot of cleaning up to do (and unpopular decisions to take) in their banks that have debt overhang.

Speaking of debt, it's a worldwide phenomenon and even if central banks don't see inflation in their measurements we certainly have it in the luxury segment.
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Old 20 June 2019, 11:20 PM   #21
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That tatic of Asians going around eu sweeping up watches from ad would not work in the UK.if your a foreigner the ad will not sell you a hot watch.hell if your not from the same city they won't sell to you.so if a random group of Asians walk into the ad here they will get nothing. Plus there are no watches on display.maybe the watches are on display in Europe and it's first come first served but not here

I still blame the ads the Grey's and flippers as they are the cause of this issue.There is zero shortage of watches
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Old 21 June 2019, 12:53 AM   #22
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China was up 81%, but not all due to watches.

The vast majority of markets saw an increase during May. Hong Kong (-7.0%) was a major exception, recording a decline for the second consecutive month and confirming the downward trend seen since the start of the year. China (+81.0%) was boosted by the exceptional export of alarm clocks and small clocks, but would have recorded very strong growth even without it. Among the other Asian markets, Japan (+39.8%), Singapore (+24.9%) and the United Arab Emirates (+44.6%) all saw significant gains. The United States (+10.4%) was close to the global average, as was France (+10.9%).

Why would anyone complain about Chinese sweeping up watches in Europe? Tourism is promoted precisely to bring foreign cash into the locality. If it's true that Chinese tourists are buying up all the watches I'd say the tourism market is a resounding success.
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Old 21 June 2019, 12:56 AM   #23
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Hong Kong has been #1 for many years and, in fact, if you go back a bunch Hong Kong imports of watches in Swiss Francs was more than the entire USA and China combined.
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Old 21 June 2019, 01:00 AM   #24
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Hong Kong has been #1 for many years and, in fact, if you go back a bunch Hong Kong imports of watches in Swiss Francs was more than the entire USA and China combined.
True dat.

https://www.fhs.swiss/pdf/mt3_180112_a.pdf
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Old 21 June 2019, 01:05 AM   #25
glamorama
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China was up 81%, but not all due to watches.

Why would anyone complain about Chinese sweeping up watches in Europe? Tourism is promoted precisely to bring foreign cash into the locality. If it's true that Chinese tourists are buying up all the watches I'd say the tourism market is a resounding success.
Don't know, I don't think anyone is complaining in Europe but there is a lot of complaint about grey-market dealers and flippers on this forum however.
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Old 21 June 2019, 06:51 AM   #26
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i believe it but thought UAE would be higher
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Old 21 June 2019, 07:07 AM   #27
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Excellent information, Thank you.

If the forum software had a like button our threads would be much shorter and more manageable. I don't think I know of any other enthusiast forum without one.
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Old 21 June 2019, 07:30 AM   #28
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Excellent information, Thank you.

If the forum software had a like button our threads would be much shorter and more manageable. I don't think I know of any other enthusiast forum without one.
:like:
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Old 21 June 2019, 08:39 AM   #29
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Credit to the Great Gary Larson.
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Old 21 June 2019, 10:27 AM   #30
Pete26
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I know my local AD told me that ther has been a slight slowing down of Chinese buyers, which he hopes converts to greater availabiliy to local buyers. That said the Asian market is huge in Australia
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