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Old 20 June 2019, 10:22 PM   #1
m j b
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Thursday's "stuff my AD said" thread

Yesterday I stopped by my AD to thank him personally for something, and natch our discussion goes to the Rolex market. This is a small AD in my town, independently (locally) owned, one store. It is a fairly upscale town (at least for NC) so they have a good business in custom jewelry and IIRC the only watch brand they carry is Rolex, although they have now delved into the used market (all brands) because of the shortage of new stock.

The manager there, who I generally deal with, has been there 15 years. He said that in the current calendar year, almost 6 months, he has personally sold more new PM Rolex watches than he had previously sold in his entire 15 year career there. I believe, although he didn't confirm, that that ratio holds true for the store's entire sales.

My takeaway from this is that Rolex has no incentive to increase SS production or allocations, when they are making up a lot of sales with PM product, which naturally has a much higher margin.

He also expressed frustration with the number of phone calls that he gets every day, asking about watches that he can't sell, and mentioned that right now his DaytonaC waiting list is about 54 years. I don't know where I fall in that list, but I suspect that my children may be able to inherit my spot.
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Old 20 June 2019, 10:39 PM   #2
rmartin92
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54 years! At least they are honest!

Would you say the only thing that'll increase the availability of watches is another economic downturn?
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Old 20 June 2019, 10:50 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by m j b View Post
Yesterday I stopped by my AD to thank him personally for something, and natch our discussion goes to the Rolex market. This is a small AD in my town, independently (locally) owned, one store. It is a fairly upscale town (at least for NC) so they have a good business in custom jewelry and IIRC the only watch brand they carry is Rolex, although they have now delved into the used market (all brands) because of the shortage of new stock.

The manager there, who I generally deal with, has been there 15 years. He said that in the current calendar year, almost 6 months, he has personally sold more new PM Rolex watches than he had previously sold in his entire 15 year career there. I believe, although he didn't confirm, that that ratio holds true for the store's entire sales.

My takeaway from this is that Rolex has no incentive to increase SS production or allocations, when they are making up a lot of sales with PM product, which naturally has a much higher margin.

He also expressed frustration with the number of phone calls that he gets every day, asking about watches that he can't sell, and mentioned that right now his DaytonaC waiting list is about 54 years. I don't know where I fall in that list, but I suspect that my children may be able to inherit my spot.
In a hypothetical universe where 'the list' is run on a first come first served basis, 54 years is very believable.

If you consider that the average AD is lucky if they receive one steel Daytona per month, the waiting time would quickly exceed many customer's remaining years.
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Old 21 June 2019, 12:08 AM   #4
m j b
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Would you say the only thing that'll increase the availability of watches is another economic downturn?
That's my theory. Although it's conceivable that if enough people get discouraged, demand will drop thereby increasing availability.
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Old 21 June 2019, 12:11 AM   #5
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If you believe in reincarnation..does the wait list extend to the next 2 or 3 lives...?
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Old 21 June 2019, 12:46 AM   #6
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I feel your pain.

I called my local AD (just a friendly hello and reminder that I'm still interested in my list watches, which I have been on the list for over a year for all of them) and they said that all of my list watches have already been allocated for this year. They left it at that. Very disappointing for me.
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Old 21 June 2019, 12:47 AM   #7
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54 years.....if I am in the manager's shoes, I would not be able to tell someone "54 years" with a straight face
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Old 21 June 2019, 02:26 AM   #8
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Lol once the list gets 10 years long they just throw the rest of the names in the trash lol....who are they kidding lol
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Old 21 June 2019, 02:30 AM   #9
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Nothing a recession can't fix. A 30% correction in the market and 8% unemployment and these things will drop like a rock. Book it.
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Old 21 June 2019, 03:17 AM   #10
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Nothing a recession can't fix. A 30% correction in the market and 8% unemployment and these things will drop like a rock. Book it.
That's when I'll swoop in.

Though I probably should buy stock and real estate when that happens.
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Old 21 June 2019, 04:09 AM   #11
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Guess what I heard from one of my ADs... They said Rolex makes the best margin on Steel and he's been in the business for over 30 years. Argue that.

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Nothing a recession can't fix. A 30% correction in the market and 8% unemployment and these things will drop like a rock. Book it.
Cant wait. Ill be fulfilling my collection (3 boxes of watches) in no time.
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Old 21 June 2019, 04:50 AM   #12
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Guess what I heard from one of my ADs... They said Rolex makes the best margin on Steel and he's been in the business for over 30 years. Argue that.



Cant wait. Ill be fulfilling my collection (3 boxes of watches) in no time.
Sounds like a ton of buyers waiting for a dip so whenever the price falls value hunters will come in and price goes back up. This is not a liquid or efficient market so there will be no crash or mass selling in one day, and no greys will slash prices like market makers do, nor will they offer decent buy prices so only for the desperate, so really there is not going to be much change unless we have a long and sustained recession that finally burns the heart out of greys. This is nothing like the stockmarket.
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Old 21 June 2019, 04:53 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by rmartin92 View Post
54 years! At least they are honest!

Would you say the only thing that'll increase the availability of watches is another economic downturn?
As above, won't make much difference, greys will just ride out any bumps, will have to be very serious market change to throw greys off this gravy train.
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Old 21 June 2019, 06:44 AM   #14
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This month the current bull market becomes the longest in history. Now maybe there will never be a correction but it is just as likely that the next bust cycle will either be very deep or very long. Either way luxury goods will suffer as will all unneeded items. The prices of unsold luxury cars in late 2008 got very very soft. I can't/won't predict the future, but it will be interesting.
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Old 21 June 2019, 06:54 AM   #15
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If you believe in reincarnation..does the wait list extend to the next 2 or 3 lives...?
Just donít die !
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Old 21 June 2019, 06:55 AM   #16
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I went to an AD selling a used Batman but it looks like it they sold it to themselves so they could resell at a premium.
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Old 21 June 2019, 06:57 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pkincy View Post
This month the current bull market becomes the longest in history. Now maybe there will never be a correction but it is just as likely that the next bust cycle will either be very deep or very long. Either way luxury goods will suffer as will all unneeded items. The prices of unsold luxury cars in late 2008 got very very soft. I can't/won't predict the future, but it will be interesting.
I think a bit differently, some people might not agree but I think discontinued SS models will still be up there in price. Not saying they will be crazy prices, but not "normal"

Any PM watches may take a dive as they will be very hard to move if there is a global economy issue, but SS can still hold it's own. Just my 2c
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Old 21 June 2019, 07:40 AM   #18
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‘Rolex sends the same about of watches they ever did, now theyre just alot more popular’

I believe him
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Old 21 June 2019, 12:38 PM   #19
WatchLurv
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Sounds like a ton of buyers waiting for a dip so whenever the price falls value hunters will come in and price goes back up. This is not a liquid or efficient market so there will be no crash or mass selling in one day, and no greys will slash prices like market makers do, nor will they offer decent buy prices so only for the desperate, so really there is not going to be much change unless we have a long and sustained recession that finally burns the heart out of greys. This is nothing like the stockmarket.
I totally agree with that. People just have wishful thoughts about this.

I'm pretty contend with my collection. Always wish it could get bigger, but I'm willing to wait it out.

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‘Rolex sends the same about of watches they ever did, now theyre just alot more popular’

I believe him
That's a lie.
Tell him to show shipments for month of February 2015 compared to February 2019. It'll pretty much state the inventory and the amount. Easily comparable.
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