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Old 21 June 2019, 12:37 AM   #31
Sublovin
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Originally Posted by Chester01 View Post
The other major factor with the baseball card business was the very well documented mass over production of the cards which grew exponentially in the late 80’s early 90’s. Rolex is very clearly and deliberately not increasing production so when the economy contracts, they will go generally well as they always have.
How is it “very clear” as you say? Rolex is not a publicly held company and does not have to release ANY financial or production numbers. I guess you are the insider?
It may sound like a skeptic point of view, but how do any of us know that they don’t have a warehouse of new ceramic Pepsi models sitting somewhere that they will trickle out to the market at a later date? Might sound silly, but the answer is that we don’t. If you owned a company that was producing widgets which were selling for twice the suggested price the moment they left the factory, wouldn’t you consider this? There is no reason for the perceived “shortage” other than it is by design.
In addition to that we see photo after photo of these things sitting in the box or safe in unworn condition.
We can all speculate and have opinions, but is absolute fact that these things are not unicorns. They are out there by the thousands, and there is a tipping point....basic economics
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Old 21 June 2019, 01:46 AM   #32
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How is it “very clear” as you say? Rolex is not a publicly held company and does not have to release ANY financial or production numbers. I guess you are the insider?

It may sound like a skeptic point of view, but how do any of us know that they don’t have a warehouse of new ceramic Pepsi models sitting somewhere that they will trickle out to the market at a later date? Might sound silly, but the answer is that we don’t. If you owned a company that was producing widgets which were selling for twice the suggested price the moment they left the factory, wouldn’t you consider this? There is no reason for the perceived “shortage” other than it is by design.

In addition to that we see photo after photo of these things sitting in the box or safe in unworn condition.

We can all speculate and have opinions, but is absolute fact that these things are not unicorns. They are out there by the thousands, and there is a tipping point....basic economics


Well there are some facts here and my points not mere speculation. An individual today just posted data about the increase in demand from Asian markets. That’s real data. We also know that while Rolex does not release production numbers, COSC does tell the number of chronographs certified. So that gives us a sense that 1) demand is up, 2) production not so much. While they are not unicorns, facts are also clear that the number of gray market dealers have exposed in the past 5 years. This does pinch supply in a massive way. So the issue is indeed complex, but there are some data and facts that we have.








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Old 21 June 2019, 02:14 AM   #33
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Chester

Fair points, but here is what we have no idea of

1- how many watches have been produced, without movements being certified yet, and are sitting? We assume they producing them in an effort to keep up, but we have no idea.

2- of the most recent 500,000 SS produced and certified (just picking a number to illustrate) , we have no idea how many were actually delivered for sale.

In other words, there could have been only 250,000 released into the consumer stream while another 250,000 sit waiting to be trickled out.
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Old 21 June 2019, 04:19 AM   #34
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I think a more appropriate analogy is the aircooled Porsche market- similar to OOP references such as five digit Rolex. Folks have been clamoring over the last few years about the aircooled Porsche bubble bursting, yet prices keep climbing quite simply because they aren't making them anymore.

I will take the contrarian view and argue OOP models will continue to hold or gain value.
Some years of air cooled are over 30% lower than their highs a few years ago (long hoods). 993's are probably down 10%. The newer GT cars of recent years were once 100k over MSRP used, now they're MSRP and change. I think 911R's asked 300k-500k+ at some point, now they go closer to MSRP of 200k and change. I wouldn't rule out ss sport professional values falling at some point too.
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Old 21 June 2019, 05:44 AM   #35
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.. I wouldn't rule out ss sport professional values falling at some point too.
My guess is when Speculators cant sell their watches they bought at 2x -2.5x MSRP. Then they will move on and the contraction cycle begins. But another guess is, SS prices wont fall back to MSRP. You will see 'buyers' again coming back before it gets to MSRP.
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Old 21 June 2019, 06:32 AM   #36
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Bubble Burst in 12 months.. with a slow down within the next 6 and a flat market in 18 months time.. the down turn is already starting as a ripple..second hand stuff is not selling as it was as the pull out is still costly.. take for example sub dates they are trading at 10% less than they were 7 months ago ..and what is at the greater price is not selling ..then overstock then BOOM.with bailout
Obviously I can’t predict the future but this seems absurd.
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