is there a crisis for our watches???

[peterpl]

OP,

If you have trouble with saving money and need somewhere to stash cash you will be far far better off

1) Gold
2) Real Estate. I personally love real estate and RE usually holds up quite well in hard times because its a NECESSITY. Not only that you get massive tax benefits investing in real estate and immediate cashflow from rent.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by myc ritz

Seems like you really, really like witnessing the fallout of a health crisis. If it takes a global pandemic for you to be able to acquire/afford watches, maybe you should find a new hobby big guy.

Why so dramatic man, did you buy your watches grey? That's quite the pretentious assumption!

[mr_gray]

@watchnutcase - many people (boosters) are in denial and will express anger with what are fairly ho hum opinions (prices will fall in an economy with substantially less economic activity). grief is a powerful process that obscures reality.

also if people haven't engaged in actually trying to sell a watch for a while they'll be unaware of the softness that was already out there (for all but the hottest watches in the best condition). it was certainly a huge shock to me (i thought the only way was up!)

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by mr_gray

@watchnutcase - many people (boosters) are in denial and will express anger with what are fairly ho hum opinions (prices will fall in an economy with substantially less economic activity). grief is a powerful process that obscures reality.

also if people haven't engaged in actually trying to sell a watch for a while they'll be unaware of the softness that was already out there (for all but the hottest watches in the best condition). it was certainly a huge shock to me (i thought the only way was up!)

Thanks for the explanation, lots of anger coming out of the wood work now apparently.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by mr_gray

also if people haven't engaged in actually trying to sell a watch for a while they'll be unaware of the softness that was already out there (for all but the hottest watches in the best condition). it was certainly a huge shock to me (i thought the only way was up!)

This is the thing people dont realise because they never tried to sell their hyped watches yet.

I knew the market was soft already in Dec/Jan - offer prices were coming down bigtime as per my experience with my friends BLNR.

In an already softish market the corona virus has killed the watch game.

To the guys saying that they cant see anything because Chrono24 says so - go message 3-4 dealers and see their offer price right now as in todays offer for your BLNR, Hulk, BLRO or any of the other hyped SS models.

You will have a heart attack.

[DayTona78]

I believe you misunderstood him. Reading through the posts, he most likely purchased all 3 and/or more watches, at retail (given his relationships with ADs and length in the game) and doesn't seem at all too worried about being long the goodies. That's my read, obv I don't know either one of you.

Let's also appreciate the fact that unlike many "experts" here, he posted pics of his watches even though one must not do so. Personally, it gives me greater comfort when actual/true owners of these watches opine, as opposed to others who aren't as knowledgeable nor possess the necessary market or watch expertise yet argue more ferociously than Nostradamus.

I'm sure both you guys own and understand the Rolex brand as well as the market, but a good number of folks in here don't give that impression. But then again, i don't have many posts in here...

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

Ahhh now we see why you're not too excited for the upcoming price drop, you're holding the hot potatoes!

[thomaspp]

Originally Posted by peterpl

This is the thing people dont realise because they never tried to sell their hyped watches yet.

I knew the market was soft already in Dec/Jan - offer prices were coming down bigtime as per my experience with my friends BLNR.

In an already softish market the corona virus has killed the watch game.

To the guys saying that they cant see anything because Chrono24 says so - go message 3-4 dealers and see their offer price right now as in todays offer for your BLNR, Hulk, BLRO or any of the other hyped SS models.

You will have a heart attack.

This!!


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[johnorpheus]

Originally Posted by peterpl

In an already softish market the corona virus has killed the watch game.

"Watch game"???? Really glad I can just wear my watch and not participate in whatever that is.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by DayTona78

I believe you misunderstood him. Reading through the posts, he most likely purchased all 3 and/or more watches, at retail (given his relationships with ADs and length in the game) and doesn't seem at all too worried about being long the goodies. That's my read, obv I don't know either one of you.

Let's also appreciate the fact that unlike many "experts" here, he posted pics of his watches even though one must not do so. Personally, it gives me greater comfort when actual/true owners of these watches opine, as opposed to others who aren't as knowledgeable nor possess the necessary market or watch expertise yet argue more ferociously than Nostradamus.

I'm sure both you guys own and understand the Rolex brand as well as the market, but a good number of folks in here don't give that impression. But then again, i don't have many posts in here...

Sure that's most likely the case, but he's lost my attention after his last comment: "If it takes a global pandemic for you to be able to acquire/afford watches, maybe you should find a new hobby big guy."

[johnorpheus]

Originally Posted by myc ritz

No stock is coming in a month. Regardless, I am thankful that:

a. I've been in this hobby long enough have excellent AD relationships.
b. Due to those relationships, own every modern piece that I like...like most do who have been around awhile.
c. Only care about value in comparison to other watches, so in the case I wanted to trade or make room for another piece the value ratio is still the same.

This is a hobby I enjoy. I like most AD's and I like most grey dealers. Grey dealers are the best source for vintage pieces and BEFORE people entered this hobby thinking watches were an investment, grey dealers were the best source for modern pieces at a nice discount.

For those concerned about money, there are much bigger fish to fry...especially for the next several months.

BTW, this thread needs photos!

Nice trio!

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by peterpl

This is the thing people dont realise because they never tried to sell their hyped watches yet.

I knew the market was soft already in Dec/Jan - offer prices were coming down bigtime as per my experience with my friends BLNR.

In an already softish market the corona virus has killed the watch game.

To the guys saying that they cant see anything because Chrono24 says so - go message 3-4 dealers and see their offer price right now as in todays offer for your BLNR, Hulk, BLRO or any of the other hyped SS models.

You will have a heart attack.

Yep this is the reality now!

[myc ritz]

Originally Posted by DayTona78

I believe you misunderstood him. Reading through the posts, he most likely purchased all 3 and/or more watches, at retail (given his relationships with ADs and length in the game) and doesn't seem at all too worried about being long the goodies. That's my read, obv I don't know either one of you.

Let's also appreciate the fact that unlike many "experts" here, he posted pics of his watches even though one must not do so. Personally, it gives me greater comfort when actual/true owners of these watches opine, as opposed to others who aren't as knowledgeable nor possess the necessary market or watch expertise yet argue more ferociously than Nostradamus.

I'm sure both you guys own and understand the Rolex brand as well as the market, but a good number of folks in here don't give that impression. But then again, i don't have many posts in here...

Thanks, you are correct. Watches always purchased at retail.

Don't get me wrong, would I rather have my watch "worth" $70k instead of $10k, yes. Do I like grey dealers that post photos of 20 pieces of the same reference, no. They are speculators, not watch dealers...but aren't the forum members with a zillion posts regarding a market crash also speculators??? I'm sick of the flippers...and now the vultures.

Let's see some photos, or maybe hear a story about a nice gift...maybe even a bad scratch. To the bums that keep salivating over an economic collapse

[bonovox]

Originally Posted by peterpl

This is the thing people dont realise because they never tried to sell their hyped watches yet.

I knew the market was soft already in Dec/Jan - offer prices were coming down bigtime as per my experience with my friends BLNR.

In an already softish market the corona virus has killed the watch game.

To the guys saying that they cant see anything because Chrono24 says so - go message 3-4 dealers and see their offer price right now as in todays offer for your BLNR, Hulk, BLRO or any of the other hyped SS models.

You will have a heart attack.

[Onikage]

Originally Posted by myc ritz

No stock is coming in a month. Regardless, I am thankful that:

a. I've been in this hobby long enough have excellent AD relationships.
b. Due to those relationships, own every modern piece that I like...like most do who have been around awhile.
c. Only care about value in comparison to other watches, so in the case I wanted to trade or make room for another piece the value ratio is still the same.

This is a hobby I enjoy. I like most AD's and I like most grey dealers. Grey dealers are the best source for vintage pieces and BEFORE people entered this hobby thinking watches were an investment, grey dealers were the best source for modern pieces at a nice discount.

For those concerned about money, there are much bigger fish to fry...especially for the next several months.

BTW, this thread needs photos!

See this would have been utterly bluechip not long ago. Boring as $%£& but safe as houses. Guy is faced with a predicament - Get out quickly I'm guessing at a loss, take longer at a bigger loss or just enjoy those 'hottest watches'. Hnm what to do eh?

[dwjez14]

Originally Posted by myc ritz

No stock is coming in a month. Regardless, I am thankful that:

a. I've been in this hobby long enough have excellent AD relationships.
b. Due to those relationships, own every modern piece that I like...like most do who have been around awhile.
c. Only care about value in comparison to other watches, so in the case I wanted to trade or make room for another piece the value ratio is still the same.

This is a hobby I enjoy. I like most AD's and I like most grey dealers. Grey dealers are the best source for vintage pieces and BEFORE people entered this hobby thinking watches were an investment, grey dealers were the best source for modern pieces at a nice discount.

For those concerned about money, there are much bigger fish to fry...especially for the next several months.

BTW, this thread needs photos!

Man you win the trio award goodness !

[myc ritz]

Originally Posted by Onikage

See this would have been utterly bluechip not long ago. Boring as $%£& but safe as houses. Guy is faced with a predicament - Get out quickly I'm guessing at a loss, take longer at a bigger loss or just enjoy those 'hottest watches'. Hnm what to do eh?

Purchased at retail, along with several others. I really enjoy these and have no reason to sell.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by Onikage

See this would have been utterly bluechip not long ago. Boring as $%£& but safe as houses. Guy is faced with a predicament - Get out quickly I'm guessing at a loss, take longer at a bigger loss or just enjoy those 'hottest watches'. Hnm what to do eh?

This is basically "the followers collection"

[myc ritz]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

This is basically "the followers collection"

If so, what is a single 34mm Air King?

[myc ritz]

Originally Posted by dwjez14

Man you win the trio award goodness !

[Onikage]

Originally Posted by myc ritz

Purchased at retail, along with several others. I really enjoy these and have no reason to sell.

I'd certainly enjoy 2 of them. I was just stirring the pot. As were you.

[boogiebot]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Its very funny actually how quickly the tide has turned on TRF.

We all used to complain about how many threads there are about ppl posting things like "How much money will I make?" Or "How much can I flip my Hulk or BLRO for?"

Now all the threads are about selling and taking losses and worried flippers scrambling trying to liquidate.

I feel terrible that the reason we are seeing the decrease in pricing is due to covid19. That said it’s bitter sweet because it’s absolutely stupid to see a mass produced watch selling for double retail due to hype. I own 3 pieces, a LNC, LVC and a BLNR. All of which were purchased below retail. I’m one of the people that should be freaking out because I want the hype value to stay high. Truth is.....I don’t care about these hype prices. Part of the reason is that I didn’t buy these watches to flip and make money. The other reason is that I actually enjoy watching other people light up with enjoyment when they acquire these watches. I really hope the pricing all crashes.


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[myc ritz]

Originally Posted by Onikage

I'd certainly enjoy 2 of them. I was just stirring the pot. As were you.

Thanks brother - I just don't like seeing little vultures happily waiting to buy a watch as the world melts down.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by myc ritz

Thanks brother - I just don't like seeing little vultures happily waiting to buy a watch as the world melts down.

Are you going to wait for prices to increase to buy your next watch, mate?

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

They just recently shipped new stock, while closed! Who's crazy now?

Quite so. Rolex make and sell a million watches a year. Even though they recently closed, quite a few shipments went out before they closed.

Also, Rolex have closed their manufacturing plants. Did they stop shipping all watches planned for distribution? The fact is, even if they have, they’ve got a finely tuned system building and distributing a million watches PA. How many watches have they got ready to ship out sitting in their warehouses? What will they do with them when the COVID situation has changed and ADs open?


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[mr_gray]

also diverted supply from asia etc etc.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

Quite so. Rolex make and sell a million watches a year. Even though they recently closed, quite a few shipments went out before they closed.

Also, Rolex have closed their manufacturing plants. Did they stop shipping all watches planned for distribution? The fact is, even if they have, they’ve got a finely tuned system building and distributing a million watches PA. How many watches have they got ready to ship out sitting in their warehouses? What will they do with them when the COVID situation has changed and ADs open?


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Exactly...

[aw9nineteen]

Originally Posted by myc ritz

Thanks brother - I just don't like seeing little vultures happily waiting to buy a watch as the world melts down.

Eh. That’s life, and always will be. People with money purchased land and property after 2008. Did you buy any stock in the last three weeks? While the watch isn’t a stock, it is an investment, it has to be. So yes, I am waiting until the prices normalize. To my credit, I purchased an Ivory dial DD2 back when they were still being made for 28k no taxes. I’ve bought into the market twice in two weeks. I wouldn’t say I’m a vulture.

Question, is being a vulture and an opportunist the same thing?


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[gtnator]

Watches are not an investment, so who cares if they go down? I would buy all my watches all over again even if I knew they next day they would be worth $1. Because I enjoy watches period.


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[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by mr_gray

like the OP i have a problem spending money and so in around jan of 2019 i decided to spend it all on watches. i figured even if i "lost" a little on the watches still better than blowing on god knows what plus i love watches and so alot of pleasure.

i bought a 116619lb, ap 15400st (white). 116660 (dssd), IWC big pilot and i already had a hulk at that time.

i sold out of them in september 2019 as i had a cash flow problem. prices had gone up alot however the actual sell price (selling to a second hand shop) was alot lower than one might envisage reading chrono24.

so it was a pretty neutral exercise for me in the end money wise.

the big lesson i learned was that chrono24 prices do not have a good relationship with reality. chrono24 tells you that your hulk is worth alot of $, but when you got the market it is very difficult to get those $. maybe this is especially the case in places like sydney where am i versus say a more dynamic market in the States.

anyway i still have that list of watches on chrono24 and today chrono24 tells me i haven't lost a cent. the truth is however that if i tried to sell i would be in dire straits.

OP - watches will soon be worth close to nothing. act accordingly!

Absolutely, and in the US also. I sold a watch on C24 five months ago. The “market” price C24 advised I sell at was easily $600-1000 over what I thought it was worth and what I actually sold it for. Watchrecon’s private seller prices are a more accurate indication of market price, but even they have become distorted by grey prices.


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[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by aw9nineteen

Eh. That’s life, and always will be. People with money purchased land and property after 2008. Did you buy any stock in the last three weeks? While the watch isn’t a stock, it is an investment, it has to be. So yes, I am waiting until the prices normalize. To my credit, I purchased an Ivory dial DD2 back when they were still being made for 28k no taxes. I’ve bought into the market twice in two weeks. I wouldn’t say I’m a vulture.

Question, is being a vulture and an opportunist the same thing?


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He will join us in the vulture flock soon, once he realizes it's more expensive being whatever he is.

Edit: Maybe he is a lion, I'm not sure