I can see SS discounting at 10-20% in a near future.

[Rolex-istanbul]

Rolex pay high amounts of marketing just to sell their watches in higher prices.

they can control stock, they have enough money to eat while this crisis pass.

so dont wait the prices to fall, it will only go up.

submariner will be 20 000 usd

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Ballzzz

In 2015/16 I was offered Daytona 1k under no tax so don’t say it can’t happen. I think unfortunately with the current worldwide conditions SS sports can & will be discounted at some point.

Well respectfully there must’ve been some other deal, arrangement or intentions going on for them to do that otherwise that AD was an idiot. I say that because they could’ve sold it at MSRP to thousands of other people who would’ve gladly paid it.

[jaychief]

Rolex are super super smart they won't let it happen !!!

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by jaychief

Rolex are super super smart they won't let it happen !!!

Correct. All they have to do is significantly reduce production. That ain’t hard.

[zion_rasta]

The economy was so good the last 4 years that many folks got into the expensive hobby of horology.

I got my 116523 in 2015 new for $12k. At that time steel Daytona’s were selling at $10k from ADs. I always thought Two tones were a class above steel until stupidity took over the internet. Nicknames were selling better than gold.

The days of inflated watch prices are gone. Artificial Exclusivity will not have the value moving forward.

[arcampado]

Dear OP, thank you so much for creating this thread. I’ve had so much trouble lately finding posts on this forum related to pricing trends. I’m glad that we’ve finally moved on from price drops back down to MSRP to now 15-20% discounts!!! Please post again when Daytonas are in display cases and ADs are begging us to buy and incentivizing with these discounts. In the meantime I’ll try not to hold my breath for too long.

[Ballzzz]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Well respectfully there must’ve been some other deal, arrangement or intentions going on for them to do that otherwise that AD was an idiot. I say that because they could’ve sold it at MSRP to thousands of other people who would’ve gladly paid it.

Was it situational, possible but doubtful. As others have said around the same time they were going for around msrp give or take. I know I passed because I wanted a date function. I hope i'm wrong, because if I am the economy will not be as bad as I think it will be. We are all along for the ride like it or not.

[golfgrouch]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Correct. All they have to do is significantly reduce production. That ain’t hard.

How exactly does Rolex do this? Do they actually lay-off watchmakers?

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by zion_rasta

The economy was so good the last 4 years that many folks got into the expensive hobby of horology.

I got my 116523 in 2015 new for $12k. At that time steel Daytona’s were selling at $10k from ADs. I always thought Two tones were a class above steel until stupidity took over the internet. Nicknames were selling better than gold.

The days of inflated watch prices are gone. Artificial Exclusivity will not have the value moving forward.

That exclusivity was absolutely fabricated as were soon to see the market flooded with these exclusive pieces. There’s already a ton of BLROs listed. Nothing worse than trying to get top dollar for your exclusive highly sought after piece when there’s 50 other listed ...

[kdphan]

Originally Posted by Rolex-istanbul

Rolex pay high amounts of marketing just to sell their watches in higher prices.

they can control stock, they have enough money to eat while this crisis pass.

so dont wait the prices to fall, it will only go up.

submariner will be 20 000 usd

Oh yes
Bold strategy
Increase prices while less people can afford
That should go well for Rolex

[crowatch]

Originally Posted by Anton911

Daytona and Pepsi trading below mrsp.I will have some of what you’re drinking
What planet are you on,keep dreaming.

I think it’s possible.. no need to be border line insulting
I paid 15% off for ss daytona in 2015... and this is much different then 2015

[zion_rasta]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

That exclusivity was absolutely fabricated as were soon to see the market flooded with these exclusive pieces. There’s already a ton of BLROs listed. Nothing worse than trying to get top dollar for your exclusive highly sought after piece when there’s 50 other listed ...

50 other? There are literally thousands of BLNR on Chrono24 alone. I am sure the market will be flooded soon with all these “hard to get” pieces. At the end of the day hyped steel is still steel, and cash is king.

[crowatch]

Originally Posted by Rolex-istanbul

Rolex pay high amounts of marketing just to sell their watches in higher prices.

they can control stock, they have enough money to eat while this crisis pass.

so dont wait the prices to fall, it will only go up.

submariner will be 20 000 usd

I think one day you may me right...in 30 years
, sub will be $20,000 usd

I think i will go back to read 40
Other posts of your $20k sub forecast

[SSGMT]

Originally Posted by Ssunnylee24

What else do you see? You see any stocks that will go up? Let me know

[sallyhats]

Originally Posted by Commonproject

Still funny to see people fall BLRO and Daytona “rare” pieces. The market is flooded with them and no one’s buying

It’s from the people that bought from greys at stupid inflationary prices or they purchased at MSRP but bought a bundle. Som people are stuck in the denial stage. Everyone is still touting this imaginary thing called DEMAND wake up People there was never any demand, its not real. The faster you can come to grips with this, the easier it will be to move on. No one is special because you got a SS sports watch in the last 2 years.

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by JRique

TRF is not a good reference point, of course people were would immediately jump on a Daytona at MSRP, but the real word is kinda different, as I said the limited supply times are gone.

You raise a valid observation. TRF is not representative of the average Rolex buying consumer. Moreover, I think we can all agree demand will seriously slow down for most luxury goods particularly watches and jewelry over the next couple of years at least. I can see gray dealers having to discount their inventory substantially once ADs open and Rolex increases production and delivery of the hot watches. How else can you compete with an AD who has stock to sell at MSRP.

[JRique]

Originally Posted by scurfa

Rolex will just adjust the market to suit the situation.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Originally Posted by Patton250

Correct. All they have to do is significantly reduce production. That ain’t hard.

As I said they can not reduce production of the most desirable pieces now, one can say that Rolex have enough cash to wait this storm pass, ok, that makes sense, but the AD's don't, they can't afford to stay closed or to have just DJ and other non desirable inventory to sell.

That's they point, Rolex will need to provide them the hot models or they will completely run out of business.

[mykii]

This thread is dumb and the people who are wishfully thinking that things will somehow equalize in their favor are dreaming. Prices in the grey market may drop, but you'll still be hard pressed getting stock from ADs for a gooooood while yet.

[JRique]

Originally Posted by mykii

This thread is dumb and the people who are wishfully thinking that things will somehow equalize in their favor are dreaming. Prices in the grey market may drop, but you'll still be hard pressed getting stock from ADs for a gooooood while yet.

Well, cash is king, so there is not need to rush, in the worst scenario prices will not go up for at least 2 years, no problem waiting.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by mykii

This thread is dumb and the people who are wishfully thinking that things will somehow equalize in their favor are dreaming. Prices in the grey market may drop, but you'll still be hard pressed getting stock from ADs for a gooooood while yet.

It’s already equalizing and it’s only been a few weeks

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by AJMarcus

You raise a valid observation. TRF is not representative of the average Rolex buying consumer. Moreover, I think we can all agree demand will seriously slow down for most luxury goods particularly watches and jewelry over the next couple of years at least. I can see gray dealers having to discount their inventory substantially once ADs open and Rolex increases production and delivery of the hot watches. How else can you compete with an AD who has stock to sell at MSRP.

Why would Rolex increase production to fill a market that’s already flooded?

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by mykii

This thread is dumb and the people who are wishfully thinking that things will somehow equalize in their favor are dreaming. Prices in the grey market may drop, but you'll still be hard pressed getting stock from ADs for a gooooood while yet.

Bro don’t crush their dreams. Plus these threads are fun. Besides when you say stuff like that they will just get mad and gang up on you. I had to block like four of them on a different thread because I said the exact same thing you just did and they went berserk.

[thomaspp]

PM will be back to 30% off


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by mykii

This thread is dumb and the people who are wishfully thinking that things will somehow equalize in their favor are dreaming. Prices in the grey market may drop, but you'll still be hard pressed getting stock from ADs for a gooooood while yet.

Your speculation is about as accurate as anybody else’s. Maybe not.

[Todd Turbo S]

Originally Posted by JRique

If you are in the market for a hot Rolex SS model just sit and wait, I can see SS Daytona, Pepsi and SD trading bellow MSRP in a near future.

The crisis will affect the average person to the business man, the entire economy, even when this resolve the last thing that will recover is the luxury market and so after years we will see the Grey Market to recover, people that are not watch lovers will not be willing to shell thousands on a big purchase, even if they have a good condition now, who knows the future? Cash is king, so save.

One can say that Rolex can simply control the supply, but they can’t just sit and stay one year out of business, and we all know that they artificially control the supply of SS models, nobody wants DJ and PM models.

Thats for a Rolex, which is a brand that has a history of value retention, maybe along with some AP and PP models, but for other brands? The scenario will be even worst.

Richemont shares now are trading at 50% discount so the market is already predicting it, and the manufacturers are the strongest player of this business, lets says the AD’s and Grey Dealers…

Daytona’s were still selling well above MSRP during the 08/09 subprime mortgage meltdown. Most analysts think we are going to be in a U-shaped recovery for this recession, so I wouldn’t expect to see Daytonas anywhere near MSRP or stainless steel popular sport models either. Just like a buying opportunity in the stock market, so goes the same concept for previously unattainable popular “anything” that might take a dip in price, hence buying opportunity. Especially for all those who have been wanting SS popular Rolex’s

[WatchNutcase]

Yes buyers should be patient right now, wait about 1 month for big grey price drops and more availability at the AD.

[sallyhats]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Why would Rolex increase production to fill a market that’s already flooded?

Not very good at this are we. Rolex’s market is for an AD to sell them, not greys. The greys inventory is watches bought from the AD. There is no inventory sitting at the AD currently, as such the AD is not flooded the grey market it. Following yet?

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Why would Rolex increase production to fill a market that’s already flooded?

This isn’t rocket science or high finance speculation.

Maybe because they want to make money.

Would you buy a Submariner from a gray dealer for thousands of dollars over MSRP when you can buy one from Rolex through their AD.

[JRique]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Why would Rolex increase production to fill a market that’s already flooded?

Already flooded? The Grey market is flooded, the AD's which has massive operation costs does not have any hot SS models, so that's it.

[kultschar]

No chance on Daytona.

Also there are many threads on this already lol