I can see SS discounting at 10-20% in a near future.

[GMT Aviator]

Originally Posted by Rexplorer214270

If hopefully things are some what back to normal come May-June, will you see Pepsis, Sub, Sub Date, Batmans, Explorers, basically they SS pieces in the AD’s display case?

As incredible as that may seem, then yes, I think you will, certainly by the end of summer I expect.

[AK797]

There will still be loads of rich and aspiring rich people in the world and social media will still be with us to showcase who has what, and watches like Rolexes will soon acquire even higher status with the vaulting classes, so any fall in prices and demand will probably only be in the short term; this virus - as it currently is - will not change the guts of human nature or desire.

[Commonproject]

Originally Posted by Rexplorer214270

If hopefully things are some what back to normal come May-June, will you see Pepsis, Sub, Sub Date, Batmans, Explorers, basically the SS pieces in the AD’s display case?

Multiple states have stay at home orders extended into May...0% of things going back to normal in the next couple of months

[Harry-57]

My AD received 4 SS Sky Dwellers last year, 4 Hulks and 5 TT CHNR. If demand dropped by 90% all it would do is shorten the waiting lists. Maybe in 3-5 years, if demand stayed low, the waiting lists *might* reduce to nothing.

[rudestew]

Originally Posted by Rolex-istanbul

Rolex pay high amounts of marketing just to sell their watches in higher prices.

they can control stock, they have enough money to eat while this crisis pass.

so dont wait the prices to fall, it will only go up.

submariner will be 20 000 usd

In what feels like a life time a decades worth of damage has been done so i can see discounting.

[JRique]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

My AD received 4 SS Sky Dwellers last year, 4 Hulks and 5 TT CHNR. If demand dropped by 90% all it would do is shorten the waiting lists. Maybe in 3-5 years, if demand stayed low, the waiting lists *might* reduce to nothing.

I don't think so...

First that this waitlist isn't the same know, many will just pass if got the call today.

And why they received just 4 SD and 4 Hulks? Rolex can just make this amount? Rolex isn't Patek, Rolex has a highly automated process, they can make thousands of watches.

They can't afford to supply this ridiculous amount of sport SS models anymore, simply as that, and even if they can the AD's can not survive selling just DJ or PM models.

[Rado63]

What if, when Rolex, return to production, only produced Date Just and PM models?

[Rafabond]

remember that this will be a temporary crisis, it is not a lasting crisis like in 2008. we can even grow much stronger than before

[JRique]

Originally Posted by Rado63

What if, when Rolex, return to production, only produced Date Just and PM models?

Run out of business?

In the hot market the AD's could not sell it, let's say now.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Rafabond

remember that this will be a temporary crisis, it is not a lasting crisis like in 2008. we can even grow much stronger than before

No way. Peoples buying habits and working habits will not be the same for a while. Pandemics will happen again.

[peterpl]

The watches that are going to suffer the most are all the hyped ones.

BLNR, BLRO, SS SkyD, Hulk, Daytona.

I think all of them are coming down to MSRP except maaaayyyybbbeee not the Daytona but it will take a massive hit from its highs though. It reached $27k at peak!!!

Seriously $27k for that watch was absolute ludacris.

Daytona will trade only for a few grand more than MSRP max.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by peterpl

The watches that are going to suffer the most are all the hyped ones.

BLNR, BLRO, SS SkyD, Hulk, Daytona.

I think all of them are coming down to MSRP except maaaayyyybbbeee not the Daytona but it will take a massive hit from its highs though. It reached $27k at peak!!!

Seriously $27k for that watch was absolute ludacris.

Daytona will trade only for a few grand more than MSRP max.

I agree with this consensus

[ArtNouveau]

Originally Posted by JRique

I don't think so...

First that this waitlist isn't the same know, many will just pass if got the call today.

And why they received just 4 SD and 4 Hulks? Rolex can just make this amount? Rolex isn't Patek, Rolex has a highly automated process, they can make thousands of watches.

They can't afford to supply this ridiculous amount of sport SS models anymore, simply as that, and even if they can the AD's can not survive selling just DJ or PM models.

You keep bringing up the DJ and PM models saying no one buys them. Actually to
most of the Rolex buying public (not TRF) the Datejust is THE Rolex, they have always sold way more of them than the SS Professional models. Same crowd, the ones that might only buy one Rolex in a lifetime, also aspire to a gold piece as their reward for a milestone.
No way the the SS Pro models go to fire sale prices.

[TheVTCGuy]

I hope you are right, it would be nice to see SS AT MSRP much less any lower. I don’t think you are right, but we can hope.

[fania123]

Oh please

[kneedeep]

IMO this premise is delusional.

[Rolex_Wrist]

Jrique, I love your enthusiasm and actually hope you are right. With that said, what isn't being said is that Rolex is not publicly traded. They do not have to answer to a board or investors looking to jump ship. They have and will always rule supply as it benefits them.

You say that people don't want DJ or PM pieces, that is semi accurate, they don't prefer them. What happens when they ADs don't have these pieces, people gravitate to the SS DJ41 and so on. Rolex created the buzz around these newly released SS pieces to sell more Rolex at the end of the day.

They have had banner year, over banner year. Slowing down forecasts and profitability may be necessary for the greater good. Rolex will still be profitable just not like the past five years. Smart companies are not over leveraged in these situations and I doubt they are.

[JRique]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

You keep bringing up the DJ and PM models saying no one buys them. Actually to
most of the Rolex buying public (not TRF) the Datejust is THE Rolex, they have always sold way more of them than the SS Professional models. Same crowd, the ones that might only buy one Rolex in a lifetime, also aspire to a gold piece as their reward for a milestone.
No way the the SS Pro models go to fire sale prices.

Oh, maybe because the buying public go to the store and found there only DJ and PM models available?

And because that the SS models are artificially scarce, Rolex make so much money selling PM models for who want to buy at the moment, Grey prices indeed contribute to that, you can buy a gold model at AD with the same price that they were charging for a SS Daytona.

[Michael T]

Originally Posted by nachopc

Even in 2009 I had to cue for a Daytona, I don’t see Rolex flooding the market with SS models, what for ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

By 2010, for me no AD relationship, I got a call from an AD for two week wait at MSRP.

[JRique]

Originally Posted by Rolex_Wrist

Jrique, I love your enthusiasm and actually hope you are right. With that said, what isn't being said is that Rolex is not publicly traded. They do not have to answer to a board or investors looking to jump ship. They have and will always rule supply as it benefits them.

You say that people don't want DJ or PM pieces, that is semi accurate, they don't prefer them. What happens when they ADs don't have these pieces, people gravitate to the SS DJ41 and so on. Rolex created the buzz around these newly released SS pieces to sell more Rolex at the end of the day.

They have had banner year, over banner year. Slowing down forecasts and profitability may be necessary for the greater good. Rolex will still be profitable just not like the past five years. Smart companies are not over leveraged in these situations and I doubt they are.

Of course, in a booming economic Rolex can just do this, making people gravitate to the DJ line or PM.

No one here is saying that Rolex is not a rock solid company, prob they are the strongest brand to survive this caos, but their entire AD's partners aren't, will they let it go out of business?

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by GMT Aviator

I honestly don’t think the Rolex factory closure is going to have any perceivable effect on supply, and whilst they may throttle back production on some models, that’s just business sense when no one is buying so you don’t create a glut in the supply chain.
At the end of this month, Rolex will be releasing a raft of new models, some hot, some not.
I suspect AD’s will be looking to please their regular clients in the coming weeks and months rather than selling to greys out the back door, because what will happen here is greys will be back to where they were a few years ago, buying DJ’s the AD can’t easily shift and selling them for less than MSRP. The AD’s will keep the hot watches for themselves to entice buyers back and hope they can make a few more big ticket sales from those individuals over the year.
My AD has already spoken to me to see if I’m ready to buy now regarding a hot watch I’m on the waitlist for. Last month I was still estimated to be a good 8 months away from getting the call for the same watch, so the landscape is already changing.
The way I see it, anyone who bought the hype and paid top dollar is going to take a bath which is only a problem if they sell. I can’t see Greys holding stock and hoping to keep the market buoyant. Despite what they may think, no amount of price fixing is going to determine the market value of these watches, that is completely out of their control. The market will decide that for them. Best thing they could do now is have a controlled reduction of stock by discounting in a phased climb down out of the artificial bubble created by themselves and social media driven hysteria regarding ownership of these things.
Prices are coming down people, availability is going to go up if you’re still in the market for buying after this global pandemic is over and the curtain is coming down on the overinflated hype that has driven this insanity for the last couple of years.
And not before time.

Very well said.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ArtNouveau]

Originally Posted by JRique

Oh, maybe because the buying public go to the store and found there only DJ and PM models available?

And because that the SS models are artificially scarce, Rolex make so much money selling PM models for who want to buy at the moment, Grey prices indeed contribute to that, you can buy a gold model at AD with the same price that they were charging for a SS Daytona.

The Datejust has been their biggest seller for decades, the SS Pro frenzy is relatively recent and as I said only to a certain portion of would be Rolex buyers. It’s long been believed that women’s Datejusts have always sold the most.
I’m going to guess I’ve been buying Rolex longer than you, 35 years, and know what the mix has been during that time. PS: the SS Daytona’s demand has exceeded supply since the 16520 came out 30 years ago. The only time they didn’t sell for a premium was the last few years of the 116520’s 16 year run.

[Danny83]

I dont see discounts happening on SS. Hopefully it wont I like when we are all doing good.

[Rolex_Wrist]

Rolex, did an overhaul of the "weak links" ADs as of 12/31/2019. Whoever was discounting, or just not ordering enough was cut off already. I even learned that companies that had 10 locations were forced to consolidate locations just because they were not doing enough volume. Pretty much cut them in half, which means that no AD is worth saving. It honestly makes no different to Rolex in my opinion, if they ever were to sell online, they make 32% more on that inventory without even flinching. What we don't know is the contractual obligations they have with their ADs.

Anything can tank because it is not a necessity. When things level off, only the strong will have survived. You guys are looking at this wrong as well. Rolex doesn't make any less by pumping more wanted models into ADs and ADs discounting them. They make the same.

[Famz_01]

Keep dreaming.

Originally Posted by JRique

If you are in the market for a hot Rolex SS model just sit and wait, I can see SS Daytona, Pepsi and SD trading bellow MSRP in a near future.

The crisis will affect the average person to the business man, the entire economy, even when this resolve the last thing that will recover is the luxury market and so after years we will see the Grey Market to recover, people that are not watch lovers will not be willing to shell thousands on a big purchase, even if they have a good condition now, who knows the future? Cash is king, so save.

One can say that Rolex can simply control the supply, but they can’t just sit and stay one year out of business, and we all know that they artificially control the supply of SS models, nobody wants DJ and PM models.

Thats for a Rolex, which is a brand that has a history of value retention, maybe along with some AP and PP models, but for other brands? The scenario will be even worst.

Richemont shares now are trading at 50% discount so the market is already predicting it, and the manufacturers are the strongest player of this business, lets says the AD’s and Grey Dealers…

[faimag]

With all this talk about cost, future cost, prices going up, down, left, right, do you (some of you) guys ever buy any watch?! Or just sit in front of an excel spreadsheet tracking the price of this and that, and then draw graphs, which support scenario A or theory B, both of which suggest you don't buy but wait? And if you ever buy any watch, do you wear it and enjoy it, or just put it in the safe to maintain its value and only wear it indoors while wearing gloves?!

[SeaDweller50]

The last call I received off my AD was instructing me to place a sizeable deposit down if I wanted to remain on the waitlist. Glad I didn’t now.

[ruffa]

Originally Posted by AK797

There will still be loads of rich and aspiring rich people in the world and social media will still be with us to showcase who has what, and watches like Rolexes will soon acquire even higher status with the vaulting classes, so any fall in prices and demand will probably only be in the short term; this virus - as it currently is - will not change the guts of human nature or desire.

+1
This pandemic is short term and will blow over shortly (as it did in China) Things will go back to normal soon. Rolex won’t be flooding the ADs with hot models in the midst of this mess. The lower priced hot pieces on the gray market will eventually sell off and prices will stabilize soon then start going back up after things settle. How are people comparing Rolex today to Rolex in 2010? Rolex is a different beast today. Every watch brand is suffering to a certain extent because of Rolex.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by ruffa

+1
This pandemic is short term and will blow over shortly (as it did in China) Things will go back to normal soon. Rolex won’t be flooding the ADs with hot models in the midst of this mess. The lower priced hot pieces on the gray market will eventually sell off and prices will stabilize soon then start going back up after things settle. How are people comparing Rolex today to Rolex in 2010? Rolex is a different beast today. Every watch brand is suffering to a certain extent because of Rolex.

Lol no

Because in China, Government is final, and if they tell you to stay home, people did it. Majority of China was a ghost town shortly after outbreak, I know this for a fact.

USA? You have clowns having ‘coronavirus parties’ and even STILL hanging out on the beach to this day. That’s why the cases are exploding and are still growing exponentially.

This is one of the very few examples where government having much more control is an incredibly good thing. Can’t fix stupid.

[dmash]

As for discounting, I agree with a couple other posters. Rolex overhauled it’s model, I think they really are telling ADs not to discount anymore to hold their brand image. Therefore they’re only going to cut deals to people they know and trust. However, MSRP for SS to anybody who wants one? Easy. And greys will be selling under to stay competitive.