Grey Dealers beginning to break?

[Explorer2polar]

Originally Posted by Duckman25

Something sounds a little fishy about the whole story. Since when did jewelers not make massive profits on their inventory? I have never heard of a poor jeweler so if this guy can't make a profit on trade ins (let alone selling watches), it is his business practices that are causing it. More importantly, it is in every asset class that is over pumped with cheap credit from central banks that at some point will go bust. Waiting and being patient.

Eh ?

I see Jewellery & Watch shops closing down regularly, so that torpedo's your massive profits assumption and regarding poor Jewellers how many do you actually know personally ? a few I know have only survived because they are running on past savings.

The past two years have been survivable for the big national chains like WOS because of internet sales, but small independents have really suffered the financial loss of walk in custom.

At no point does the original post say these watches are "Trade Ins", these are high end watches bought in to resell for profit. The flipper contacts the Grey dealers and touts their watch around until they get the highest price.

[dtwer]

I don't think the grey market will collapse, but it will come to the point where many will fail once this market peaks and goes into recession phase. The market will likely consolidate into a few major greys.

The surviving greys will be in a better position after the consolidate. Will the price drop? Maybe and maybe not; that will still be determined largely by demand.

The problem is, at this point nobody knows where and when this market peaks out. I think the main reason Rolex exercises tremendous discipline on their production number and MSRP is to prevent itself from being destroyed once the business cycle goes into the recession phase. By maintaining the production number and MSPR, Rolex is building a dam that insulates itself and its ADs from the waves in the secondary market. It is a very forward looking business strategy.

[MWW70s]

It could disappear, but not in this century.

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by RJM25R

You have your opinion and I have mine.

Rolex/grays selling Rolex will NEVER go back to discounting and you can quote me on that.

That was always the business model, until the last few years - which was a period where countries have been printing money, giving to bankers to push up asset prices.

I just cannot see that QE will last forever, that asset prices will be inflated by government policy forever, that Rolex will be cool forever on social media, and that Rolex will NEVER be discounted again.

I was before and it will be again.

[Iliamerk]

I get the impression that grey sellers are working together to push prices up. Couple hundred profit here, couple hundred profit there. They continuously flip to each other to sell to clients and seem to be ever increasing, at least in the online markets I frequent. Not sure what it’s going to take to give some relief except if people stop paying the exorbitant grey prices.

[telesquire]

I spoke to a grey dealer in person this week in his store, he'd just bought 18 Rolex sports watches, mainly Subs, GMT and Daytona all dated Sept and Oct 2021. Nice to see them all in one go. He said that the UK had received some hefty deliveries of them over the last month. I looked at some other dealers online this weekend and his observation sounded correct, there's an awful lot of fresh stock at the greys right now. They must produce and dispatch in large batches. So many of those green things about and Rootbear too all Sept/Oct 2021.

[grimps]

I have a feeling demand might actually fly up soon , Hong Kong is probably one the biggest grey dealing Hubs has been under a lot of restrictions for a while now as has China.
When these two really open up fully the demand will shoot up in my opinion

[ravellee]

Originally Posted by grimps

I have a feeling demand might actually fly up soon , Hong Kong is probably one the biggest grey dealing Hubs has been under a lot of restrictions for a while now as has China.
When these two really open up fully the demand will shoot up in my opinion

demand has been shooting up in Singapore. many young buyers in their 20s

[1665fan]

Yes demand is on the rise…..get them while you can!!!!!

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Originally Posted by telesquire

I spoke to a grey dealer in person this week in his store, he'd just bought 18 Rolex sports watches, mainly Subs, GMT and Daytona all dated Sept and Oct 2021. Nice to see them all in one go. He said that the UK had received some hefty deliveries of them over the last month. I looked at some other dealers online this weekend and his observation sounded correct, there's an awful lot of fresh stock at the greys right now. They must produce and dispatch in large batches. So many of those green things about and Rootbear too all Sept/Oct 2021.

If serial numbers are random how did you confirm all these dates?

[Driver8]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

That was always the business model, until the last few years - which was a period where countries have been printing money, giving to bankers to push up asset prices.

I just cannot see that QE will last forever, that asset prices will be inflated by government policy forever, that Rolex will be cool forever on social media, and that Rolex will NEVER be discounted again.

I was before and it will be again.

Absolutely correct. Anyone who believes that we've suddenly reached a state where nothing will ever change again is delusional.

When, what and how things will change is another story entirely, but to believe we're now somehow at a point that will remain static forever is just daft.

[telesquire]

Originally Posted by Kevin of Larchmont

If serial numbers are random how did you confirm all these dates?

I saw their guarantee cards and the dealer told me they were all from the past two months....now obviously they were built sometime earlier, but they had come from the unscrupulous AD's in Sept/Oct. I would imagine the transfer from AD to grey to be pretty immediate.....courier speeds permitting.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Originally Posted by telesquire

I saw their guarantee cards and the dealer told me they were all from the past two months....now obviously they were built sometime earlier, but they had come from the unscrupulous AD's in Sept/Oct. I would imagine the transfer from AD to grey to be pretty immediate.....courier speeds permitting.

Please explain these eighteen dated guarantee cards that you personally viewed.

[Polarexplorerii]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Yes demand is on the rise…..get them while you can!!!!!

Christmas is coming so prices are gonna skyrocket!

[RJM25R]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

That was always the business model, until the last few years - which was a period where countries have been printing money, giving to bankers to push up asset prices.

I just cannot see that QE will last forever, that asset prices will be inflated by government policy forever, that Rolex will be cool forever on social media, and that Rolex will NEVER be discounted again.

I was before and it will be again.

Simple economics.

Supply/demand.

The intrinsic value of owning a watch that doesnt lose value but appreciate s as prices increase or money in the bank thats actually depreciating because of inflation….. most posts on here and everywhere is/are about “investment value” and that train will run and run.


When you say “last few years” how long ago? I can’t remember stainless sports models being discounted at grays since 2014 at the latest? That’s 7 years of huge increases in value.


For two years people on this forum have been predicting this crash, this bursting bubble….. tulips, classic cars blah blah blah…..


I’m buying as much stainless sports Rolex as I can……

[Explorer2polar]

Originally Posted by Mini2

No one would be investing 10/15k for 50£ profit
Take away 1/6 for vat margin scheme
20% for tax
over heads
He or she has probably made 25£

0.25% ROI
I don't personally think they would buy a watch with that return

Paul Thorpe just sold his AP to a dealer friend for a £250 profit on a £ 30K watch, PT will not pay vat on that sale but the Grey dealer will when he sells it on. The Grey has to pay vat on sales, pay for his overheads and you still think they are making big money ??? No the buyer of the watch at retail is making the Big money not the Grey Dealer.

[ravellee]

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

Paul Thorpe just sold his AP to a dealer friend for a £250 profit on a £ 30K watch, PT will not pay vat on that sale but the Grey dealer will when he sells it on. The Grey has to pay vat on sales, pay for his overheads and you still think they are making big money ??? No the buyer of the watch at retail is making the Big money not the Grey Dealer.

the buyer of the watch at retail had to buy some other rubbish to get the AP.

[ALF61]

Originally Posted by dtwer

I don't think the grey market will collapse, but it will come to the point where many will fail once this market peaks and goes into recession phase. The market will likely consolidate into a few major greys.

The surviving greys will be in a better position after the consolidate. Will the price drop? Maybe and maybe not; that will still be determined largely by demand.

The problem is, at this point nobody knows where and when this market peaks out. I think the main reason Rolex exercises tremendous discipline on their production number and MSRP is to prevent itself from being destroyed once the business cycle goes into the recession phase. By maintaining the production number and MSPR, Rolex is building a dam that insulates itself and its ADs from the waves in the secondary market. It is a very forward looking business strategy.

This has been the forecast for years and they just keep going and going and the goods higher and higher. People view watches as a tangible liquid asset that rivals bitcoin appreciation or better, and certainly better than gold. It just keeps feeding on itself and will not end.

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by ravellee

the buyer of the watch at retail had to buy some other rubbish to get the AP.

[james309]

I know a grey who gives £5000 to a big AD as a drink on all purchases.

Still sells and profits everyone.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

[1665fan]

Some greys drive ferraris and porsche…….the struggle is real….

[173rdabn]

He needs a new business model and good AD contacts. Go around flippers to the source. Otherwise, he's dead in the water.

[Swiss Mad!]

The following screen shots taken from a UK grey dealers Instagram pages.

I do not believe these increases are sustainable.

Viewing watch sales like a pyramid, the higher the prices go, the smaller the triangle at the top of people who can actually afford them.

So in effect all that is going to happen is that by continuously increasing prices they are only reducing their own target audience.










Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Explorer2polar]

Originally Posted by ravellee

the buyer of the watch at retail had to buy some other rubbish to get the AP.

Any proof or just a wild assumption based on fresh air?

[Explorer2polar]

Originally Posted by james309

I know a grey who gives £5000 to a big AD as a drink on all purchases.

Still sells and profits everyone.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

HAHAHAHA yes of course a grey dealer just drops £5K into an AD's slush fund, honestly would anyone believe this happens?????

[bob sims]

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

HAHAHAHA yes of course a grey dealer just drops £5K into an AD's slush fund, honestly would anyone believe this happens?????

Yup. No slush fund just pure cash.