F.P. Journe, putting it all into perspective, and watch collecting today (long read)

[lovetherolex]

I usually don’t make threads, but in another thread during an innocent response to the OP’s question of ‘this or that?’, where I answered and gave context, the context apparently ruffled some feathers. And it got me thinking.

Why would that be?

I know there will be many here who have no illusions and will be unsurprised at what I’m about to say. Fellow veterans. I was surprised that there were so many uninformed about how we got here, at least with this particular brand, and what this tells us about the state of the watch world.

As an owner of this brand before the hype (and this 1000% a hype situation), I’ve watched what happened over the years, with Watchbox’s stake in F.P Journe as their biggest AD, their natural flow of inventory of a tiny brand with a tiny market, and their leveraging this control of inventory, along with their online presence where they began hyping the watches and whispering in the ears of collectors for years before many recently jumped on the train.

Watchbox had a coordinated, long term program to talk up and hype FPJ watches, and it worked. And you have to give them credit. They did what the brand itself couldn’t do for years. They could not shore up their market. And believe me or don’t, the brand itself is well aware of this. Supporting a brand to build it up takes a LOT of capital. Think about what that means. How to support a brand in the secondary market.

Keep in mind, FPJ was firmly in the dumps of retail with its collectors for all of its life before Watchbox came along and started on it. Facts. The watches were tough to move, heavily discounted, and still collectors were taking a bath on these timepieces. Facts. If you were in retail at the time, you know what I’m talking about.

Nice watches do not a market make.

This is why I said in the other thread, no one should mention F.P. Journe without also saying Watchbox. FPJ for their own actions don’t know how they got where they are but everyone at the brand acknowledges what Watchbox did. They are forever intertwined.

It’s another thing altogether for the people running FPJ in their inner circle saying hyped pieces like CB and Vagabondage are not worth the prices people are paying. What does calling it ‘crazy’, and ‘stupid’ behind closed doors tell you?

It’s interesting to me that we’ve entered a new era where some who are unaware of the history and only aware of the hype feel inclined to shut down the transmission of simple facts, and rewrite history. It smacks of trying to protect value in what they’re ‘invested’ in. Find the denier, and you’ll find where their money has been going.

This is not what watch collecting is about. It’s not about ‘the chase’ or ‘protecting value’.

How many of you are familiar with SJX?

https://watchesbysjx.com/2021/08/wat...e-bethune.html

In contrast to many of its peers who have long focused on more mainstream names, Watchbox has long been active in selling pre-owned timepieces from independent watchmakers. Notably, Watchbox became a market maker for F.P. Journe starting about five year ago by actively buying and selling the brand’s watches.

https://storage.googleapis.com/pubza...ci_6994271.jpg An earlier version of the article by SJX.

Read between the lines. And this is a journalist (and a fine one) being publicly diplomatic to maintain access. I am not a journalist, so I can be blunt.

There are simply too many instances now where people are told the demand for an FPJ piece is x years long, then low and behold the watch shows up in a much shorter timeframe. How many people on the lists passed on the watches? How many people were even on those lists?

The hype does not survive critical thinking.

Is there something wrong with being honest with ourselves about these things? Can we not still enjoy the watches for what they are?

If not, that’s a big red flag, flapping in the wind.

And I think it has to do with the invasion of value collectors. It all smacks of the natural consequences of a hype bubble. I’m not an economist. I’m not in the business of making predictions of what will happen in the future. Everyone can buy whatever they want. It makes no real difference to me one way or the other. But I think all collectors have to be honest, with themselves and with others. Especially when in the alternative you will mislead others, like in the other thread. And that’s something that doesn’t sit well with me.

The history is the history. There’s nothing intrinsically wrong with that. But when we begin to ignore that and tell ourselves a different story that feels more appealing, I think that’s when we set ourselves up for trouble.

You know who won’t tell you this? The ones who are concerned about protecting value.

And as a veteran, I think (hope?) there are still rational collectors out there who want to hear it.

If so, this one is for you. We hope you will be here with us long after the hype.

Rant over.

[kunlun]

Okay, but now do the same thing for Patek.

[lovetherolex]

Originally Posted by kunlun

Okay, but now do the same thing for Patek.

Patek’s sales were in the dumps and was for years methodically hyped by and their secondary market controlled and invested in by one entity, that turned it into what it is today when almost no one was paying it any attention before?

That’s news to me. Source?

[liu_watch]

Watchbox had existed years before the explosion of value in FPJ, which occurred around 2017. While Watchbox definitely has an impact on the resale value and therefore the retail demand, I don’t think it was the main factor. I would give that credit to Chanel’s partial acquisition and its corporate strategy.

If Watchbox has such influence, De Bethune will be another FPJ. Let’s see if that happens…

[gilluminati204]

Is WatchBox and Timmy that powerful?

I wonder if they could do the same thing with Hublot in a few years?



Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk

[kunlun]

Originally Posted by lovetherolex

Patek’s sales were in the dumps and was for years methodically hyped by and their secondary market controlled and invested in by one entity, that turned it into what it is today when almost no one was paying it any attention before?

That’s news to me. Source?

It's extremely hypocritical not to point out how Patek bid up their own watches at auction to raise value and generate hype.

Also, you'll need to prove FPJ sales were in the dumps.

[dchang81]

was kind of odd how pateks kept making sales records at auction.......when the buyer was patek. no one seemed to care

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by kunlun

Also, you'll need to prove FPJ sales were in the dumps.

Most people didn't like the elegante, look what happened.

The CB was discounted and I think I remember prices at 18k euro easily.

[dchang81]

i was asked why i was buying a woman's watch with the titalyt elegante. heck the box didn't do it any favors.

[_speedmaster_]

Originally Posted by liu_watch

Watchbox had existed years before the explosion of value in FPJ, which occurred around 2017. While Watchbox definitely has an impact on the resale value and therefore the retail demand, I don’t think it was the main factor. I would give that credit to Chanel’s partial acquisition and its corporate strategy.

If Watchbox has such influence, De Bethune will be another FPJ. Let’s see if that happens…

DeBethune is already heading in that direction thanks to Watchbox. A little over a year ago, you had numerous options for a used DB28 at $40k. Now there are barely any in the grey market and if they are listed, they go for $80k. Titanhawks also doubled in price.

This started before Watchbox's announcement. They used to have around 10 DB28s for sale at heavily discounted prices. About a year ago they pulled all their stock and now trickle out inventory at vastly increased prices.

[ajw45]

LOL, awesome rant. Sometimes the truth hurts but only for people that believed the lie.

And yes, at this scale, WB is that powerful. If you watched c24 and their own site, you could see them managing available pre-owned inventory and definitely owning a majority of the available inventory. They were aggressive about managing the De Bethune inventory in the market earlier this year before they acquired the company and it has driven up secondary prices and moved new pieces that previously sat for years.

To be clear, I think De Bethune and (to a lesser extent ) FPJ watches are great, so I'm not saying they are bad watches, but as collectors we should be real about how the market is managed / manipulated and the disparity between price and value when looking at purchases.

The way the hype draws out the fanatics and deniers though is crazy. If you tell them the resonance doesn't really resonate all the time, the centigraph doesn't really measure to 100th of a second, and the guilloche is stamped, the pitchforks come out and they are ready to fight you to the death. The collectors know and accept these things but the hype beasts get all fired up because it ruins the bubble they've created.

[dchang81]

thing is not just watchbox brands. Laureato skeletons used to go in the high teens now they are mid 20's. vacheron used to get heavy discounts not they are at a premium.

[Hawaiian Timer]

Originally Posted by lovetherolex

Patek’s sales were in the dumps and was for years methodically hyped by and their secondary market controlled and invested in by one entity, that turned it into what it is today when almost no one was paying it any attention before?

That’s news to me. Source?

Aloha,

You're drawing specific historical conclusions based upon yours and others opinion and painting them as fact.

I didn't get the job I wanted at Safeway when I was 15...

Movie stars get discovered randomly. Overnight sensations DO happen.

I'm but an infant when it comes to the 180 history of Patek Philippe.

I have known about the quality of Journe now from my days at TZ since 2008 perhaps, but certainly not to the extent I do now.

These are facts above.

OJ Whatley and WatchUWant and Bruce Ginsberg from Watches 24/7 were around before...

Social media has changed a lot. The internet came first...

The millions of collectors around the world have the information they want at their fingertips and can decide where to spend.

Relevance and staying power require not only initial recognition, but individual piece quality, the creativity and ongoing innovation, while maintaining the rarity.

There is no marketing gimmick that could get F.P. Journe to this point. It's not a flash in the pan.

I celebrate the brand for its accomplishments in creating so many unique, functional and robust designs in a short amount of time in history (30 years)...

I doubt there will be another watchmaker like FPJ in my lifetime to accomplish what has been done.

And if there is, you can be sure I'll collect that brand...



Pictures will never tell the entire story. That is what social media lacks at times.



"Hype" is well earned these days.



I'm in for the long haul... just my 3 cents...

Have a great weekend...

Mahalo


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ajw45]

Originally Posted by _speedmaster_

DeBethune is already heading in that direction thanks to Watchbox. A little over a year ago, you had numerous options for a used DB28 at $40k. Now there are barely any in the grey market and if they are listed, they go for $80k. Titanhawks also doubled in price.

This started before Watchbox's announcement. They used to have around 10 DB28s for sale at heavily discounted prices. About a year ago they pulled all their stock and now trickle out inventory at vastly increased prices.

Yup, I watched the c24 listing for De Bethune go from 30+ to less than <10 in a week and it wasn't just WB listings, it was ALL listings in North America, and a couple dealers took down ALL the De Bethune listings from their web sites. I own a De Bethune and think they are amazing watches, but I also acknowledge the fix is in.
That said, it's one thing to hype FPJ CB's to over $100k, I think it's another to just firm up pre-owned prices on De Bethunes from 50% of retail to 80%. As far as I'm concerned, that's just good brand management.

[_speedmaster_]

Originally Posted by ajw45

Yup, I watched the c24 listing for De Bethune go from 30+ to less than <10 in a week and it wasn't just WB listings, it was ALL listings in North America, and a couple dealers took down ALL the De Bethune listings from their web sites. I own a De Bethune and think they are amazing watches, but I also acknowledge the fix is in.
That said, it's one thing to hype FPJ CB's to over $100k, I think it's another to just firm up pre-owned prices on De Bethunes from 50% of retail to 80%. As far as I'm concerned, that's just good brand management.

Agree. A DB28 at less than $40k in the grey market was not good for the brand. Glad the brand is on more stable footing.

[subtona]

Interesting perspective, does it change anything?

[_speedmaster_]

Originally Posted by Hawaiian Timer

I doubt there will be another watchmaker like FPJ in my lifetime to accomplish what has been done.

Come on dude. From a technical perspective, you have Halter, Flageollet, Haldimann, Baumgartner to name a few.

From a business success perspective, I guess. But he's had alot of help along the way.

[ajw45]

Originally Posted by _speedmaster_

Come on dude. From a technical perspective, you have Halter, Flageollet, Haldimann, Baumgartner to name a few.

From a business success perspective, I guess. But he's had alot of help along the way.

Hahah, LOL. Totally.

From a technical merit perspective, I think the Halter and Haldimann resonances are better designs than FPJ for achieving resonance in a wristwatch, the De Bethune triple clutch chrono or JLC Duometre more innovative chronographs over the centigraph, the many multi axis tourbillon offerings from JLC/Candeaux / GF, MB&F more functional an better looking than the vertiocal tourbillon, and the Lange double/triple splits superior split seconds chronos to the monopoussoir.

I don't mean to hate on FPJ, the FPJ movement designs are beautiful and unique, but as far as watchmaking accomplishments, he is very accomplished but not alone or superior to some of the other great watches and watchmakers out there.

[Bearxj86]

Sometimes how a brand got hot is less important to the fact that it is hot now :)

[Parapraxis]

Get out of the house man, you need some fresh air

[WatchEater666]

Don’t worry, an overdue recession with right size things eventually. :)

[_speedmaster_]

Originally Posted by ajw45

Hahah, LOL. Totally.

From a technical merit perspective, I think the Halter and Haldimann resonances are better designs than FPJ for achieving resonance in a wristwatch, the De Bethune triple clutch chrono or JLC Duometre more innovative chronographs over the centigraph, the many multi axis tourbillon offerings from JLC/Candeaux / GF, MB&F more functional an better looking than the vertiocal tourbillon, and the Lange double/triple splits superior split seconds chronos to the monopoussoir.

I don't mean to hate on FPJ, the FPJ movement designs are beautiful and unique, but as far as watchmaking accomplishments, he is very accomplished but not alone or superior to some of the other great watches and watchmakers out there.

The funny thing is, Journe himself would likely agree. He has recognized the technical achievements and groundwork laid out by people like Halter.

[GB-man]

I don’t think anything here is news to Journe collectors.

Watchbox are some of if not the most educated and well funded buyers in the market. The fact that they are/were buying them is a very good omen not some sort of Ponzi scheme.

Let me know when Francois Paul is buying his own watches back at auction then we can talk.

[Jay (Eire)]

Appreciate you taking the time to put your thoughts down in black and white. (I’m being serious).

For some perhaps this will be news, for most there is no new information here. It’s a valuable PSA nonetheless.

Watchbox is 100% part of the story, it’s not THE story though.

[Tall_texan]

To me, independent watch brands are as close as the hobby gets to art. While you are right with respect to watchbox drawing attention and demand to FPJ, this is the same thing as art promoters riding the wave of increasing art values. How many artists have experienced this renaissance of demand that was created by market makers and not themselves? The list is long. From your post I assume you take a tactical approach to your collecting, which is great, but such a rant also feels equally applicable to many collectible items. Thankfully for the hobby, the watch world provides a range from art-like objects that are few in number and potentially unique to the commodities like speedies and subs. Something for everyone. Surely some people of the past thought Warhols ‘simple’ art was all over valued and overly promoted by the collector class and couldn’t have imagined the level of collectibility today.

[Becweb]

AMEN to that. Give this man the Presidency! No way in hell FPJ commends the grey prices but what do I know.

But I also agree that the same could be said for many other brands - it's really good marketing / brand management in the end.

Originally Posted by lovetherolex

I usually don’t make threads, but in another thread during an innocent response to the OP’s question of ‘this or that?’, where I answered and gave context, the context apparently ruffled some feathers. And it got me thinking.

Why would that be?

I know there will be many here who have no illusions and will be unsurprised at what I’m about to say. Fellow veterans. I was surprised that there were so many uninformed about how we got here, at least with this particular brand, and what this tells us about the state of the watch world.

As an owner of this brand before the hype (and this 1000% a hype situation), I’ve watched what happened over the years, with Watchbox’s stake in F.P Journe as their biggest AD, their natural flow of inventory of a tiny brand with a tiny market, and their leveraging this control of inventory, along with their online presence where they began hyping the watches and whispering in the ears of collectors for years before many recently jumped on the train.

Watchbox had a coordinated, long term program to talk up and hype FPJ watches, and it worked. And you have to give them credit. They did what the brand itself couldn’t do for years. They could not shore up their market. And believe me or don’t, the brand itself is well aware of this. Supporting a brand to build it up takes a LOT of capital. Think about what that means. How to support a brand in the secondary market.

Keep in mind, FPJ was firmly in the dumps of retail with its collectors for all of its life before Watchbox came along and started on it. Facts. The watches were tough to move, heavily discounted, and still collectors were taking a bath on these timepieces. Facts. If you were in retail at the time, you know what I’m talking about.

Nice watches do not a market make.

This is why I said in the other thread, no one should mention F.P. Journe without also saying Watchbox. FPJ for their own actions don’t know how they got where they are but everyone at the brand acknowledges what Watchbox did. They are forever intertwined.

It’s another thing altogether for the people running FPJ in their inner circle saying hyped pieces like CB and Vagabondage are not worth the prices people are paying. What does calling it ‘crazy’, and ‘stupid’ behind closed doors tell you?

It’s interesting to me that we’ve entered a new era where some who are unaware of the history and only aware of the hype feel inclined to shut down the transmission of simple facts, and rewrite history. It smacks of trying to protect value in what they’re ‘invested’ in. Find the denier, and you’ll find where their money has been going.

This is not what watch collecting is about. It’s not about ‘the chase’ or ‘protecting value’.

How many of you are familiar with SJX?

https://watchesbysjx.com/2021/08/wat...e-bethune.html



https://storage.googleapis.com/pubza...ci_6994271.jpg An earlier version of the article by SJX.

Read between the lines. And this is a journalist (and a fine one) being publicly diplomatic to maintain access. I am not a journalist, so I can be blunt.

There are simply too many instances now where people are told the demand for an FPJ piece is x years long, then low and behold the watch shows up in a much shorter timeframe. How many people on the lists passed on the watches? How many people were even on those lists?

The hype does not survive critical thinking.

Is there something wrong with being honest with ourselves about these things? Can we not still enjoy the watches for what they are?

If not, that’s a big red flag, flapping in the wind.

And I think it has to do with the invasion of value collectors. It all smacks of the natural consequences of a hype bubble. I’m not an economist. I’m not in the business of making predictions of what will happen in the future. Everyone can buy whatever they want. It makes no real difference to me one way or the other. But I think all collectors have to be honest, with themselves and with others. Especially when in the alternative you will mislead others, like in the other thread. And that’s something that doesn’t sit well with me.

The history is the history. There’s nothing intrinsically wrong with that. But when we begin to ignore that and tell ourselves a different story that feels more appealing, I think that’s when we set ourselves up for trouble.

You know who won’t tell you this? The ones who are concerned about protecting value.

And as a veteran, I think (hope?) there are still rational collectors out there who want to hear it.

If so, this one is for you. We hope you will be here with us long after the hype.

Rant over.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by lovetherolex

I usually don’t make threads, but in another thread during an innocent response to the OP’s question of ‘this or that?’, where I answered and gave context, the context apparently ruffled some feathers. And it got me thinking.

Why would that be?

I know there will be many here who have no illusions and will be unsurprised at what I’m about to say. Fellow veterans. I was surprised that there were so many uninformed about how we got here, at least with this particular brand, and what this tells us about the state of the watch world.

As an owner of this brand before the hype (and this 1000% a hype situation), I’ve watched what happened over the years, with Watchbox’s stake in F.P Journe as their biggest AD, their natural flow of inventory of a tiny brand with a tiny market, and their leveraging this control of inventory, along with their online presence where they began hyping the watches and whispering in the ears of collectors for years before many recently jumped on the train.

Watchbox had a coordinated, long term program to talk up and hype FPJ watches, and it worked. And you have to give them credit. They did what the brand itself couldn’t do for years. They could not shore up their market. And believe me or don’t, the brand itself is well aware of this. Supporting a brand to build it up takes a LOT of capital. Think about what that means. How to support a brand in the secondary market.

Keep in mind, FPJ was firmly in the dumps of retail with its collectors for all of its life before Watchbox came along and started on it. Facts. The watches were tough to move, heavily discounted, and still collectors were taking a bath on these timepieces. Facts. If you were in retail at the time, you know what I’m talking about.

Nice watches do not a market make.

This is why I said in the other thread, no one should mention F.P. Journe without also saying Watchbox. FPJ for their own actions don’t know how they got where they are but everyone at the brand acknowledges what Watchbox did. They are forever intertwined.

It’s another thing altogether for the people running FPJ in their inner circle saying hyped pieces like CB and Vagabondage are not worth the prices people are paying. What does calling it ‘crazy’, and ‘stupid’ behind closed doors tell you?

It’s interesting to me that we’ve entered a new era where some who are unaware of the history and only aware of the hype feel inclined to shut down the transmission of simple facts, and rewrite history. It smacks of trying to protect value in what they’re ‘invested’ in. Find the denier, and you’ll find where their money has been going.

This is not what watch collecting is about. It’s not about ‘the chase’ or ‘protecting value’.

How many of you are familiar with SJX?

https://watchesbysjx.com/2021/08/wat...e-bethune.html



https://storage.googleapis.com/pubza...ci_6994271.jpg An earlier version of the article by SJX.

Read between the lines. And this is a journalist (and a fine one) being publicly diplomatic to maintain access. I am not a journalist, so I can be blunt.

There are simply too many instances now where people are told the demand for an FPJ piece is x years long, then low and behold the watch shows up in a much shorter timeframe. How many people on the lists passed on the watches? How many people were even on those lists?

The hype does not survive critical thinking.

Is there something wrong with being honest with ourselves about these things? Can we not still enjoy the watches for what they are?

If not, that’s a big red flag, flapping in the wind.

And I think it has to do with the invasion of value collectors. It all smacks of the natural consequences of a hype bubble. I’m not an economist. I’m not in the business of making predictions of what will happen in the future. Everyone can buy whatever they want. It makes no real difference to me one way or the other. But I think all collectors have to be honest, with themselves and with others. Especially when in the alternative you will mislead others, like in the other thread. And that’s something that doesn’t sit well with me.

The history is the history. There’s nothing intrinsically wrong with that. But when we begin to ignore that and tell ourselves a different story that feels more appealing, I think that’s when we set ourselves up for trouble.

You know who won’t tell you this? The ones who are concerned about protecting value.

And as a veteran, I think (hope?) there are still rational collectors out there who want to hear it.

If so, this one is for you. We hope you will be here with us long after the hype.

Rant over.

As they say in Glasgow: "Enjoy your evening, mate".

[llngoc]

Just refuse to buy at watchbox or above retail.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I don’t think anything here is news to Journe collectors.

Watchbox are some of if not the most educated and well funded buyers in the market. The fact that they are/were buying them is a very good omen not some sort of Ponzi scheme.

Let me know when Francois Paul is buying his own watches back at auction then we can talk.

He actually used to. That's how he populated the Patrimoine certified pre-owned section of his website.

In the past 2+ years, that section has been dry and scarce. Why? For exactly the reason you're hinting at.

[llngoc]

BTW, it seems like Lange is Watchbox’s newest darling?