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Old 24 March 2020, 10:43 PM   #3631
joeychitwood
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I think it’s necessary to repeat this every few days. Wishful thinking and politics aside, a pandemic ends when it runs out of victims.

1) person catches the virus and survives, developing immunity.
2) person catches the virus and dies.
3) a vaccine is developed.
4) antiviral therapies are developed.
5) transmission from person to person is interrupted.

There are no other options. It’s easy to see which options are a possibility at this point in time.
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Old 24 March 2020, 10:44 PM   #3632
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I agree and apologize if my use of the image brought the wrong reaction from that poster.

What Pickett’s and your post illustrated to me were the bookends to the volumes of different experiences and reactions to the same disease. Whether Atlantic Coast or Pacific Coast, there are a million different situations.

I wanted to illustrate how we must all accommodate and adapt to the different experiences our members here will express.



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You make a good point. I appreciate your comment, Paul.
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Old 24 March 2020, 10:56 PM   #3633
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If you take care of the the healthcare crisis the underlying economic crisis will be averted.
If not you going lots of dead healthcare workers and citizens on your hands......
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Old 24 March 2020, 10:59 PM   #3634
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Originally Posted by joeychitwood View Post
I think it’s necessary to repeat this every few days. Wishful thinking and politics aside, a pandemic ends when it runs out of victims.

1) person catches the virus and survives, developing immunity.
2) person catches the virus and dies.
3) a vaccine is developed.
4) antiviral therapies are developed.
5) transmission from person to person is interrupted.

There are no other options. It’s easy to see which options are a possibility at this point in time.
Cant argue with the facts...
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Old 24 March 2020, 11:02 PM   #3635
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We had something similar - locals putting up signs saying "Go home idiots".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504
But yeah ... in a country like ours with complete freedom of movement and no state lines even, it is impossible to police. Hence Boris went for "lockdown" last night.
Do you think lockdown is coming to the US soon?

This one is a crapshoot. Remember a major reason why the US exist.....due to an oppressive govt. I’m not certain how long “good for your health” will trump “freedom”. And any sort of forcible lockdown imposed via govt/military action on US soil (beyond the national guard helping deliver supplies and groceries) would probably be met with fierce resistance.... Haven’t you ever seen a country music video???
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Old 24 March 2020, 11:23 PM   #3636
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Originally Posted by joeychitwood View Post
I think it’s necessary to repeat this every few days. Wishful thinking and politics aside, a pandemic ends when it runs out of victims.

1) person catches the virus and survives, developing immunity.
2) person catches the virus and dies.
3) a vaccine is developed.
4) antiviral therapies are developed.
5) transmission from person to person is interrupted.

There are no other options. It’s easy to see which options are a possibility at this point in time.
6) Person catches virus,become very sick for weeks and makes life VERY difficult for family and ALL contacts
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Old 24 March 2020, 11:35 PM   #3637
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It’s a very good comment and correct, except that in the movies there is always the hero who is competent and proactive

in real life government are always slow to react, in any crisis UNLESS the crisis has happened before there is a slow response. Governments always fight the last war not the war they are in.

The reason South Korea got it right is they their last war was a pandemic so they learned and responded correctly the next time

I was in government for a time and understand this

By the way this is true in organizations as well KODAK was disrupted by digital cameras. It’s kind of the same problem something new comes along and you are not ready for it EVEN though you should have been

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The irony is that Kodak invented the technology for digital cameras.
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Old 24 March 2020, 11:39 PM   #3638
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At some point, and it may be happening now, people will drive away from NY and Seattle, to “cool” spots like Kansas and South Dakota. Those places need to be ready.
Already happening. I know of several people who have family leaving NY and headed to less populated areas. The potential downside is introducing "carriers t a sheltered population in remote areas.
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Old 24 March 2020, 11:40 PM   #3639
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This one is a crapshoot. Remember a major reason why the US exist.....due to an oppressive govt. I’m not certain how long “good for your health” will trump “freedom”. And any sort of forcible lockdown imposed via govt/military action on US soil (beyond the national guard helping deliver supplies and groceries) would probably be met with fierce resistance.... Haven’t you ever seen a country music video???
You know who doesn't need a forcible lock-down? A society where individuals by and large take it upon themselves to act responsibly by doing their part without coercion in ways that are known to defeat an imminent threat to life and public (others') health.
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Old 24 March 2020, 11:46 PM   #3640
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You know who doesn't need a forcible lock-down? A society where individuals by and large take it upon themselves to act responsibly by doing their part without coercion in ways that are known to defeat an imminent threat to life and public (others') health.
I would say around 10%
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Old 24 March 2020, 11:49 PM   #3641
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Originally Posted by joeychitwood View Post
I think it’s necessary to repeat this every few days. Wishful thinking and politics aside, a pandemic ends when it runs out of victims.

1) person catches the virus and survives, developing immunity.
2) person catches the virus and dies.
3) a vaccine is developed.
4) antiviral therapies are developed.
5) transmission from person to person is interrupted.

There are no other options. It’s easy to see which options are a possibility at this point in time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TswaneNguni View Post
6) Peron catches virus,become very sick for weeks and makes life VERY difficult for family and ALL contacts
Quote:
Originally Posted by gmh1013 View Post
Cant argue with the facts...
I won't argue with the "facts." But ther eis one clear, missing consideration from the scenario above.

7) Hospital beds are maxed out with COVID-19 patients and others needing medical attention die due to lack of / or greatly reduced access to medical care.

There is a compounding effect involved. Doctors and other healthcare workers get sick (or carry the disease and transmit it to uninfected seeking non-COVID-19 medical care).

Less doctors and / or healthcare workers to treat the normal plethora of illnesses and afflictions during a non-pandemic time. Lack of access to assets (i.e. - respirators, ventilators, etc.) for the non-COVID-19 patients and so on.
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Old 24 March 2020, 11:54 PM   #3642
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This one is a crapshoot. Remember a major reason why the US exist.....due to an oppressive govt. I’m not certain how long “good for your health” will trump “freedom”. And any sort of forcible lockdown imposed via govt/military action on US soil (beyond the national guard helping deliver supplies and groceries) would probably be met with fierce resistance.... Haven’t you ever seen a country music video???
I agree. There is a significant proportion of the American population who will not accept this is a problem until they see people dying around them, people that they know and love. At that point it is too late. The mixed messaging from officials is not helping.

That said, it would be a disaster to use law enforcement and/or the military to impose order. It would be much more effective to frame this as an act of patriotism to comply with "shelter in place" orders, but that has to come from those in governmental leadership positions from across the spectrum, as one unified front. Truly this needs to be addressed as a war against an invisible enemy, and we should mobilize as Americans to fight back.
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Old 24 March 2020, 11:56 PM   #3643
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Originally Posted by DJ39 View Post
It’s a very good comment and correct, except that in the movies there is always the hero who is competent and proactive

in real life government are always slow to react, in any crisis UNLESS the crisis has happened before there is a slow response. Governments always fight the last war not the war they are in.

The reason South Korea got it right is they their last war was a pandemic so they learned and responded correctly the next time

I was in government for a time and understand this

By the way this is true in organizations as well KODAK was disrupted by digital cameras. It’s kind of the same problem something new comes along and you are not ready for it EVEN though you should have been

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This virus may be new but let's not pretend that it's the first threatening, communicable disease to ever come down the pike, or that preparation can only be accomplished by those previously burned. The main, overarching failure of government at all levels was to dismiss the evidence of severity that was occurring elsewhere.

Also, I'm not talking only about government, I'm speaking of individuals who bury their heads as well and who's perspective is only what they can't do or how they'll be inconvenienced and for how long rather than what needs doing by themselves and everyone like them in order to win. Were they waiting for permission to do things that in no way requires a government directive to do? Does the government of Minnesota need to instruct people how to put on mittens or operate a snow shovel?

That said, fighting a war is a highly complex undertaking. On the other hand, understanding what's a good idea and what's not in terms of preventing the spread of disease (once the way it's transmitted has been determined by the Science people) is not.

Everyone fancies themselves a General grand strategist, latrine-digging is for others. Everybody wants to save the planet but nobody wants to take out the trash. People who believe in past lives were always Napoleon or Cleopatra, not some poor nameless, forgotten peasant with bad teeth who got ridden down by a douchy, drunk knight just for fun.
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Old 24 March 2020, 11:59 PM   #3644
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6) Person catches virus,become very sick for weeks and makes life VERY difficult for family and ALL contacts
True. I’d call that 1a.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg2 View Post

7) Hospital beds are maxed out with COVID-19 patients and others needing medical attention die due to lack of / or greatly reduced access to medical care.
Collateral damage from 2)
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Old 25 March 2020, 12:00 AM   #3645
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I went to a grocery store today and nobody was panicking. Wasn't even crowded.

They even had a few pkgs of toilet paper.

Water, meat, produce. All there.

They were oddly out of cottage cheese...

I can see based on our combined experiences that things are coming around.
Meat aisles for Beef and Chicken / pork. All frozen meat cases: Empty. No paper goods except for a couple packages of paper towels and a few boxes of kleenex.

They did have bread, deli meat and a lot of other things seem to be restocking. Beer and wine was good. But a lot of the aisles had vast swaths of empty shelving.
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Old 25 March 2020, 12:02 AM   #3646
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I went to Whole Foods yesterday and it was well stocked. Not too crowded either. That said, I live in a rust belt city not NYC or LA.
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Old 25 March 2020, 12:11 AM   #3647
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I went to Whole Foods yesterday and it was well stocked. Not too crowded either. That said, I live in a rust belt city not NYC or LA.
consider yourself lucky.... I went to 2 HEB's in cypress and both were cleaned out for the most part Sunday
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Old 25 March 2020, 12:14 AM   #3648
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Already happening. I know of several people who have family leaving NY and headed to less populated areas. The potential downside is introducing "carriers t a sheltered population in remote areas.
I don’t post much in these highly opinionated threads, but here it goes...

Stupid if you ask me Selfish jacka**es
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Old 25 March 2020, 12:29 AM   #3649
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Distilleries making sanitizers to help...
Here and elsewhere...
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...=1585059835953
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Old 25 March 2020, 12:30 AM   #3650
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12.5% of infections in Spain and 8.3% in Italy are healthcare workers .
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Old 25 March 2020, 12:33 AM   #3651
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Italy was the new China and now Spain is the new Italy!


USA Last 2 days count
9359 new cases and 111 new deaths
10168 new cases and 140 new deaths

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Old 25 March 2020, 12:39 AM   #3652
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I don’t post much in these highly opinionated threads, but here it goes...

Stupid if you ask me Selfish jacka**es
I agree. If you live in a hotspot and relocate, you endanger other people.
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Old 25 March 2020, 12:56 AM   #3653
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American citizens here living at our winter home in Sunny Sri Lanka and we are know under 24 hour curfew until further notice with no alcohol sales indefinite.. No problem as I just bought 8 bottles of tequila in Jakarta and 5 cases of beer locally before the prohibition ..!
But what are you going to do NEXT week??
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Old 25 March 2020, 01:02 AM   #3654
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12.5% of infections in Spain and 8.3% in Italy are healthcare workers .
PPE supplies and hospital protocols in this country have been a complete and utter EMBARRASSMENT.

CDC and hospital administrations are flat out ignoring the protests coming from health care workers.
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Old 25 March 2020, 01:04 AM   #3655
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At some point, and it may be happening now, people will drive away from NY and Seattle, to “cool” spots like Kansas and South Dakota. Those places need to be ready.
Statsman, I agree with your post with one concern.

China and Italy both had to lock down travel to make sure this happened. This would require a Federal response under the Constitution and I just cannot see this happening until far too late.
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Old 25 March 2020, 01:08 AM   #3656
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Meat aisles for Beef and Chicken / pork. All frozen meat cases: Empty. No paper goods except for a couple packages of paper towels and a few boxes of kleenex.

They did have bread, deli meat and a lot of other things seem to be restocking. Beer and wine was good. But a lot of the aisles had vast swaths of empty shelving.
Is this in North Carolina? Where there are almost no cases?
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Old 25 March 2020, 01:08 AM   #3657
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I won't argue with the "facts." But ther eis one clear, missing consideration from the scenario above.

7) Hospital beds are maxed out with COVID-19 patients and others needing medical attention die due to lack of / or greatly reduced access to medical care.

There is a compounding effect involved. Doctors and other healthcare workers get sick (or carry the disease and transmit it to uninfected seeking non-COVID-19 medical care).

Less doctors and / or healthcare workers to treat the normal plethora of illnesses and afflictions during a non-pandemic time. Lack of access to assets (i.e. - respirators, ventilators, etc.) for the non-COVID-19 patients and so on.

Thank You!
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Old 25 March 2020, 01:08 AM   #3658
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CNBC reporting all of India’s 1.3B headed for 21 day lockdown
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Old 25 March 2020, 01:12 AM   #3659
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I agree. There is a significant proportion of the American population who will not accept this is a problem until they see people dying around them, people that they know and love. At that point it is too late. The mixed messaging from officials is not helping.

That said, it would be a disaster to use law enforcement and/or the military to impose order. It would be much more effective to frame this as an act of patriotism to comply with "shelter in place" orders, but that has to come from those in governmental leadership positions from across the spectrum, as one unified front. Truly this needs to be addressed as a war against an invisible enemy, and we should mobilize as Americans to fight back.
Internal order maintenance is a role of the National Guard in emergencies. They are under the control of the individual states for this reason. The Army and other branches are under Federal control and their uses are generally limited to logistical support in times such as these. Right now, I understand that the Army is setting up triage stations in the VA hospital parking lot here in Denver.
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Old 25 March 2020, 01:14 AM   #3660
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12.5% of infections in Spain and 8.3% in Italy are healthcare workers .
And they will be out of service for weeks moving forward.
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