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Old 28 March 2020, 06:58 AM   #4081
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Weird -- parks and paths in NYC (at least Riverside on the westside) are empty. play soccer with the kids every day for 3 hours each morning and no one in sight. It's great.

That and to go margaritas from the restaurants around me and things are looking up!
to go margaritas...wow. That might be worth leaving the house for!
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Old 28 March 2020, 07:02 AM   #4082
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Governor of NC announced state wide stay at home order beginning this Monday. The news person said it would last until April 29th.

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Old 28 March 2020, 07:19 AM   #4083
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https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
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Old 28 March 2020, 07:29 AM   #4084
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The really big issue involved does not really revolve around the death rate of this disease. It may end up being in the single digit % once all is said and done.

The main issue are the resources required (staff, beds, ventilators, etc.) involved with assisting patients. This in turn creates a massive ripple downstream, preventing others from getting medical care. Which in turn increase collateral deaths from ordinary medical conditions, otherwise non-fatal.
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Old 28 March 2020, 08:06 AM   #4085
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In Australia are you fined for not voting?
Or was that an auto-correct snafu...


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Itís compulsory to vote here and you are fined if you donít vote .
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Old 28 March 2020, 08:06 AM   #4086
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Governor of NC announced state wide stay at home order beginning this Monday. The news person said it would last until April 29th.

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Yes. 30 days. To those worried about financial impacts, the exemptions for essential businesses and businesses that undertake social distancing and other precautions appears very broad.

https://files.nc.gov/governor/docume...me-Order-3.pdf

Stay safe.
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Old 28 March 2020, 08:09 AM   #4087
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The really big issue involved does not really revolve around the death rate of this disease. It may end up being in the single digit % once all is said and done.

The main issue are the resources required (staff, beds, ventilators, etc.) involved with assisting patients. This in turn creates a massive ripple downstream, preventing others from getting medical care. Which in turn increase collateral deaths from ordinary medical conditions, otherwise non-fatal.

Should COVID-19 take precedence over other serious illness though? I appreciate its a tough call but stopping all other care is wrong in my opinion.


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Old 28 March 2020, 08:10 AM   #4088
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Interesting article. Thanks.

I note the discussion of a possibility of early intervention before serious symptoms. But my question is how that will help given the we currently only provide medical care to those with serious symptoms.

Stay safe.
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Old 28 March 2020, 08:11 AM   #4089
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Itís compulsory to vote here and you are fined if you donít vote .


Thanks - Like jury duty or another public service.




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Old 28 March 2020, 08:12 AM   #4090
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The US president has ordered GM to produce ventilators under the Defense Production Act.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...034_story.html

Stay safe.
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Old 28 March 2020, 08:13 AM   #4091
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The president invoked the defense production act against GM to manufacture ventilators. GM wanted top dollar and only wanted to produce 6k ventilators. With the DPA there is no longer the negotiation on price and GM has to produce the requested amount by law. I think it's good that they got slapped with the DPA since they took bailout money back in 2008 and will probably take more bailout money this time too. They wanted to price gouge at a time like this
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Old 28 March 2020, 08:16 AM   #4092
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The US tested 107,000 today, with 18,000 positive (about 16%). We need the percent positive to drop (less positives and more tests).
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Old 28 March 2020, 08:22 AM   #4093
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

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The president invoked the defense production act against GM to manufacture ventilators. GM wanted top dollar and only wanted to produce 6k ventilators. With the DPA there is no longer the negotiation on price and GM has to produce the requested amount by law. I think it's good that they got slapped with the DPA since they took bailout money back in 2008 and will probably take more bailout money this time too. They wanted to price gouge at a time like this


That last sentence is not supported by the facts. It wasnít over price. ďWhite House officials said the two sides had been discussing a contract worth about $1 billion, but the talks broke down over the timeline for delivering the machines.Ē

I do agree that arguing over how many, how fast can lead to a discussion of costs - but it wasnít price gouging.

I also agree there should be more cooperation from industry. GM claims that ďVentec, GM and our supply base have been working around the clock for over a week to meet this urgent need.Ē

* edit - BTW, in full disclosure - I am no Mary Barra fan - she fired a good friend who ran their motorsports division a few years back.


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Old 28 March 2020, 08:24 AM   #4094
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

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Originally Posted by mountainjogger View Post
The US president has ordered GM to produce ventilators under the Defense Production Act.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...034_story.html
Stay safe.
Thanks for the link.

I am also sharing a WSJ link via Google (it should circumvent the paywall at WSJ) in case anyone prefers their article: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj...rs-11585327749


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Old 28 March 2020, 08:28 AM   #4095
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

Dupe
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Old 28 March 2020, 09:02 AM   #4096
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This article is over a month old.

As of February 26, 2020.......


It is interesting to note that a month ago there were (59) confirmed cases in the US.

Now there are over 100,000 confirmed cases.
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Old 28 March 2020, 09:06 AM   #4097
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This article is over a month old.

As of February 26, 2020.......


It is interesting to note that a month ago there were (59) confirmed cases in the US.

Now there are over 100,000 confirmed cases.
Yes but they knew what the virus was back then when they wrote the paper.
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Old 28 March 2020, 09:10 AM   #4098
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This article is over a month old.

As of February 26, 2020.......


It is interesting to note that a month ago there were (59) confirmed cases in the US.

Now there are over 100,000 confirmed cases.
And there 5 times that number dead so far today. Exponential growth in action.
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Old 28 March 2020, 09:22 AM   #4099
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How crazy this was on in July 2019:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/wh...matter-of-when
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Old 28 March 2020, 09:34 AM   #4100
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Yes. 30 days. To those worried about financial impacts, the exemptions for essential businesses and businesses that undertake social distancing and other precautions appears very broad.

https://files.nc.gov/governor/docume...me-Order-3.pdf

Stay safe.
NASCAR teams have been told to stop working and go home for the next 30 days.
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Old 28 March 2020, 09:39 AM   #4101
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I appreciate its a tough call but stopping all other care is wrong in my opinion.
Who said anyone was stopping all other care?
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Old 28 March 2020, 09:42 AM   #4102
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How crazy this was on in July 2019:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/wh...matter-of-when


I recall seeing that story live - and wondered what ďsuperbugĒ might survive all our high tech pharma and medico resources.

Itís interesting how this quote back then (about the Spanish flu) has come true again now...

ďDr. Anthony Fauci:
In 1918, we were swimming in the dark, as it were.Ē

And so it goes...


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Old 28 March 2020, 09:52 AM   #4103
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

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Who said anyone was stopping all other care?


If you follow the sequence of quotes, youíll see the source - itís earlier in the thread. The source was originally a New England Journal of Medicine article that a different member shared an opinion of delaying care.

As for my own real-world impacts that I personally know about:
Non-essential surgeries have been cancelled in Counties/States who declared an emergency.

I have a neighbor who just got a breast cancer diagnosis and her surgeon said the hospital wonít schedule surgery.

I have a life-long friend who was scheduled for kidney transplant - donor and he were ready to go a week ago. It was called off and canít be scheduled.

In both cases, they are very worried.


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Old 28 March 2020, 10:45 AM   #4104
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Who said anyone was stopping all other care?
State of TN has order all non emergency care stopped. Misdemeanor if you do elective care. That means just a about every profitable thing a health systems does, effectively closing health care. No dermatologist, dentist no physical therapy and so on. Also no money coming in, bankruptcies will abound.
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Old 28 March 2020, 11:05 AM   #4105
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Who said anyone was stopping all other care?
I know of a hospital that is stopping chemotherapy. I know of others that are trying.

Some hospitals are switching to triage and ramping up for COVID19 incoming and clearing beds.

This is what I was talking about when I said the mortality rate of this pandemic is a "piece" of the problem. When you factor in the collateral deaths, it will be bad.

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Old 28 March 2020, 11:16 AM   #4106
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I know of a hospital that is stopping chemotherapy. I know of others that are trying.

Some hospitals are switching to triage and ramping up for COVID19 incoming and clearing beds.

This is what I was talking about when I said the mortality rate of this pandemic is a "piece" of the problem. When you factor in the collateral deaths, it will be bad.

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Bingo. This was always about overwhelming the healthcare system with a Covid-19 spike that could not be accommodated. There was so much commentary out there about this crisis "only" being this or that. It's the big picture that counts.


In the US annually, there are 2.7M deaths. The grim math is roughly 7250 per day, from all causes--illness, accidents, etc. So if you are looking for a metric to measure the impact of Covid-19 against overall, this is the one.
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Old 28 March 2020, 11:24 AM   #4107
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In the US annually, there are 2.7M deaths. The grim math is roughly 7250 per day, from all causes--illness, accidents, etc. So if you are looking for a metric to measure the impact of Covid-19 against overall, this is the one.
Precisely; What was the death by this time last year? And the year before that? And the year before that?
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Old 28 March 2020, 11:28 AM   #4108
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Precisely; What was the death by this time last year? And the year before that? And the year before that?
Past performance doesn't indicate future results, my broker always tells me. Same here, methinks.
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Old 28 March 2020, 11:45 AM   #4109
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Past performance doesn't indicate future results, my broker always tells me. Same here, methinks.
Of course not. But the point was, in your words, "to measure the impact of Covid-19."
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Old 28 March 2020, 11:46 AM   #4110
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Itís compulsory to vote here and you are fined if you donít vote .
It's ludicrous with what's happening now. I'll happily pay the $133 fine. Our state is governed by morons. They say social distancing is what we all need to do, then refuse to cancel an election, it's only a local council election. The importance of which is zero. I'd guarantee you that 99.9% of Australians wouldn't have a clue who their local council member is. Sorry for the rant, this hypocrisy makes me rage.

I drove past a polling booth at 9am this morning on the way to get the weekly groceries. Not a single car in the carpark. I hope people stay away and send the message.

https://www.news.com.au/national/que...fec7dfe96f11a4
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