the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[77T]

Originally Posted by statsman

I have been following the stats diligently. Russia’s data is a big problem.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020...emic_in_Russia

They are mainly counting people who were diagnosed outside of Russia, as if there were no contractions happening within Russia. At this point, that is criminally inexcusable. Russia has the worst kind of situation- one where they not only don’t know what they have, but refuse to find out.

I emailed my senator and asked him to contact the CDC. We need a travel ban to and from Russia. Look- little Norway has 1,500 cases and we’re supposed to believe that great big Russia has only 150?

Russia isn’t alone. Mexico, Pakistan and many others have checked their reports as imported. This has been going on from the beginning.

Look at the WHO report directly here, just scroll down to the tables.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=20876712_2


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[77T]

Originally Posted by newu5er

Username checks out...feel like I should trust this guy. Oh and 8525 cases in US now.

Wikipedia can be edited by many people so it is at best a secondary source.


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[newu5er]

Originally Posted by 77T

Wikipedia can be edited by many people so it is at best a secondary source.


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Was a joke or attempt to lighten mood a little. (He posted stats - his name is statsman).

[77T]

Originally Posted by newu5er

Was a joke or attempt to lighten mood a little. (He posted stats - his name is statsman).

That is funny - I was only focused on the wiki - went over my head.


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[Naples09]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

It was posted on the WFLA TV news Tampa website about the Pinellas-Clearwater beaches staying open.

Florida beaches remain open and packed

After living in Tampa for 10 years - not shocked by this at all. This is busy season and things will get very bad quickly if they don't have the revenue coming in during high season. Should be interesting what goes one in the state.

[Blansky]

Originally Posted by Naples09

After living in Tampa for 10 years - not shocked by this at all. This is busy season and things will get very bad quickly if they don't have the revenue coming in during high season. Should be interesting what goes one in the state.

The good news is there are very few older people living in Florida.

Can’t see a problem here.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by 77T

Just as info, that website is not source data, they are using an algorithm. It’s a nice looking dashboard. If it helps people take the situation more seriously then there’s value in that.

I’m not saying people are wrong in believing it - just that their algorithm has been overshooting actual WHO reports.

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Not for Singapore. The Singapore number is updated within an hour after Ministry of Health Singapore published the daily result.

The number for Malaysia also accurately mirrors their official source.

Why do you think all the numbers in this site are just algorithm? I have just quoted 2 countries that tie to the source accurately. In fact, they provide a source next to the daily commentary for each countries and at times, breakdown of cities.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

Why do you think all the numbers in this site are just algorithm? I have just quoted 2 countries that tie to the source accurately.

Because I read their data schema publicly posted in their FAQ methods and procedures.


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[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by 77T

Because I read their data schema publicly posted in their methods and procedures.

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They provide sources to click next to the daily commentary for each countries and at times, breakdown of cities. These sources pointed to official figures from countries' health authorities, while a few were from the countries' media. They don't look like algorithms to me.

Do have a look.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by statsman

I have been following the stats diligently. Russia’s data is a big problem.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020...emic_in_Russia

They are mainly counting people who were diagnosed outside of Russia, as if there were no contractions happening within Russia. At this point, that is criminally inexcusable. Russia has the worst kind of situation- one where they not only don’t know what they have, but refuse to find out.

I emailed my senator and asked him to contact the CDC. We need a travel ban to and from Russia. Look- little Norway has 1,500 cases and we’re supposed to believe that great big Russia has only 150?

I am completely on board with aggressive handling of the virus and am very suspicious of Russia, but I do have a devils advocate question...

If Russia had a large number of cases like we suspect, wouldn’t that be hard to hide? Hospitals being overrun and reports leaking out of the calamity on blogs and social media? Unless that is all being clamped down??

It’s very odd they have so few cases given their climate and population.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

They provide sources to click next to the daily commentary for each countries and at times, breakdown of cities. These sources pointed to official figures from countries' health authorities.



Do have a look.

I have looked. As I’ve said before, I respect everyone’s opinion to rely on what they choose to read. Check their FAQ.

For my part, chasing specific numbers is like the old saying “you can’t see the forest for the trees”.

It is the larger picture that matters to me - the trends and the actions that we can take in the US to flatten the curve.

I believe each country can do it their own way and I respect that, too.


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[statsman]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I am completely on board with aggressive handling of the virus and am very suspicious of Russia, but I do have a devils advocate question...

If Russia had a large number of cases like we suspect, wouldn’t that be hard to hide? Hospitals being overrun and reports leaking out of the calamity on blogs and social media? Unless that is all being clamped down??

It’s very odd they have so few cases given their climate and population.

I imagine they’re having a rough “flu season”.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by 77T

I have looked. As I’ve said before, I respect everyone’s opinion to rely on what they choose to read. Check their FAQ.

For my part, chasing specific numbers is like the old saying “you can’t see the forest for the trees”.

It is the larger picture that matters to me - the trends and the actions that we can take in the US to flatten the curve.

I believe each country can do it their own way and I respect that, too.

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Just to be clear, this not a debate on an opinion. I'm raising a query on your post about this site publishing numbers based on algorithm, although I saw citation/sources in this site that tie to each country's official government or health authorities figures, while a few are from that country's media. And from my knowledge of Singapore and Malaysia numbers, the sources for these 2 countries are legit.

[scarlet knight]

It does seem like Singapore and Japan have been relatively unscathed. Early testing and quarantines? Hygienic populace? Why have they succeeded while things look dire in Italy?

[dimag333]

Is this accurate

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

steve

[superdog]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

It does seem like Singapore and Japan have been relatively unscathed. Early testing and quarantines? Hygienic populace? Why have they succeeded while things look dire in Italy?

In Italy you have multiple generations living together.

And a less than desirable healthcare system.

[chappuy1750]

Originally Posted by Blansky

The good news is there are very few older people living in Florida.

Can’t see a problem here.

Dripping. Sarcasm. Appreciated.

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

Just to be clear, this not a debate on an opinion. I'm raising a query on your post about this site publishing numbers based on algorithm, although I saw citation/sources in this site that tie to each country's official government or health authorities figures, while a few are from that country's media. And from my knowledge of Singapore and Malaysia numbers, the sources for these 2 countries are legit.

Thanks for your help in keeping this real.

To anyone posting here, please try to stick to official facts. There is no need to spread confusion and disinformation. Unless you have a better source than the BBC and local Italian media, then you should not be trying to imply that their numbers are incorrect.

[chappuy1750]

Originally Posted by statsman

I imagine they’re having a rough “flu season”.

I too have been curious about the 144 million Russians who seem to have largely avoided COVID-19. Yup - "flu season" will surely be rough for them!

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

It does seem like Singapore and Japan have been relatively unscathed. Early testing and quarantines? Hygienic populace? Why have they succeeded while things look dire in Italy?

Probably because they took this seriously early enough. The climate in Singapore may also be helping. It appears as though hot humid conditions are unfavorable for the virus.

[DJ39]

Originally Posted by statsman

I imagine they’re having a rough “flu season”.

During Russia’s brutal winters many people die on the street, the Muscovites call them teardrops. Russians have been through hell and back the last hundred years, don’t think this Corona virus will freak them out. IMO


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[statsman]

Originally Posted by dimag333

Is this accurate

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

steve

Pretty much (counting cases is trying to hit a moving target)

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

It does seem like Singapore and Japan have been relatively unscathed. Early testing and quarantines? Hygienic populace? Why have they succeeded while things look dire in Italy?

Can't speak for Japan and Italy, but for Singapore, there is a team that performs contact tracing on contacts of all infected individuals. They will find out where these infected individuals travel and interacted with in the previous 2 weeks, and then issue the contacts with Stay-Home-Notice or quarantine for the next 2 weeks.

The next step is clustering. There will be a team linking all these recently infected individuals with previously infected individuals to identify common clusters. Sometimes, the police will be roped in to assist with this process. Clustering allows the health authority to understand the source/type of transmission and say if clusters always emerge from a particular religious event (just an example), then similar types of religious events will be suspended for the sake of public health.

Above are in addition to the normal advisory on border control, social distancing, sick-stay-home, hygiene, early testing, wear mask, etc. Maybe the hot and humid weather also help in a way, but I don't have the scientific citation to back this assertion.

[statsman]

Originally Posted by DJ39

During Russia’s brutal winters many people die on the street, the Muscovites call them teardrops. Russians have been through hell and back the last hundred years, don’t think this Corona virus will freak them out. IMO


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That’s fine for Russia. We don’t need Covid-19 carrying Russians unknowingly sharing the virus around the world (and in the US).

[subtona]

Guidelines for our global community dealing my with this global epidemic

Be safe everyone.

[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by Seibei

The bad news is that this seems to be completely out of control in some major population centers such as London. Official statistics also seem unreliable and too low.

"Following UK health advice, Soryl called emergency services – about three times before she managed to get through. She gave her details, and symptoms.

"They essentially said you just need to stay at home, there's nothing we can do.

"They stopped testing people a couple of days before I got sick."

She was told only those over 65, or in hospital care, were being tested.

"Which is ridiculous because it goes against everything the World Health Organisation says we should be doing.

"It makes it really hard to know if you've got the virus."

But nurses and doctors on the country's health phoneline said "they were quite positive that we had the virus".

She was told to self-isolate for 14 days.

Five more came down with the same illness, which made eight of a workplace of 12, followed by her two flatmates.

She believed more people were sick than official numbers would show. Many there were not taking minor symptoms seriously and isolating themselves.

"Being in London, it's a massive risk. On a train that thousands of people commute on every hour.""

They are not testing, there is nothing they can do, stay at home and we hope you don't die is essentially the message from UK health care which is clearly overwhelmed. People like this are not going to appear on official statistics for Corona virus cases.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...covid19-ordeal

The good news is that cures are being developed.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN215025

More bad news:
more than 4000 new cases in Italy and more than 400 new deaths. Given the situation in that country this is probably under reported.

That is what people fail to realize. If you get this, there is not really anything they (doctors) can do.

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[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by 77T

Hi Joey - can you post a link to that photo?


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It's on Drudge report.

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[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by Blansky

The good news is there are very few older people living in Florida.



Can’t see a problem here.

You forgot to add,: (sarcasm)


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[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by Dawg2

That is what people fail to realize. If you get this, there is not really anything they (doctors) can do.

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Exactly

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[77T]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

Just to be clear, this not a debate on an opinion. I'm raising a query on your post about this site publishing numbers based on algorithm, although I saw citation/sources in this site that tie to each country's official government or health authorities figures, while a few are from that country's media. And from my knowledge of Singapore and Malaysia numbers, the sources for these 2 countries are legit.

I agree - I’m not debating. You said you have knowledge of Singapore and Malaysia numbers from those country’s official sources. I think that would be the best source.

I can only state what that other data aggregator states in their own website. What I have suggested is that by checking this, one can see how their data is represented.

https://www.worldometers.info/faq/




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