the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[BigBlue1]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

John Hopkins has a dashboard updated daily

Interesting

[Headshrinker]

There was a breakout of the coronavirus in a facility in New Jersey before the well-publicized China epidemic. A viral outbreak at a Wanaque Center for Nursing and Rehabilitation sickened 10 children and sent an elderly patient to the hospital, was documented on December 18th of 2019.
I believe when people are isolated together, as in China, that precaution, may backfire.
Article is from NORTHJERSEY.COM, Jan.3,2020 by Lindy Washburn.
Sorry, it would not print.

[Cryten]

[3 Putt]

Originally Posted by MikeMike

I live in China. Have lived here for over a decade. Luckily not close to Wuhan. You can compare mortality rates because the Coronavirus is a flu virus. The streets are relatively empty, part of that is because it is Spring Festival. And there is fear and paranoia amongst all. No one wants to get sick. As for the supposedly lack of people being cured, the normal flu takes at least a week to recover from and undoubtedly hospitals are being extra-cautious. Things could get a lot worse (virus could mutate, much greater mortality rate), but right now there is a clear overreaction even if the Chinese government are lying about the figures (although I don’t believe they are).

Oh, not that it matters but I have been on plenty of empty buses and there are people walking outside in this city of over 10 million.

You indicated you are not close to WuHan. I suggest you get closer to Hubei province (or the area between it and Shanghai), before speaking with such authority. As of this morning, 43 of my employees have the virus and are quarantined in WuHan. They went there for Spring Festival as it is their hometown. I know a few things about China too. Stay safe. I hope there is "clear overreaction" as you indicate.

[Brenngun]

Originally Posted by MikeMike

I live in China. Have lived here for over a decade. Luckily not close to Wuhan. You can compare mortality rates because the Coronavirus is a flu virus. The streets are relatively empty, part of that is because it is Spring Festival. And there is fear and paranoia amongst all. No one wants to get sick. As for the supposedly lack of people being cured, the normal flu takes at least a week to recover from and undoubtedly hospitals are being extra-cautious. Things could get a lot worse (virus could mutate, much greater mortality rate), but right now there is a clear overreaction even if the Chinese government are lying about the figures (although I don’t believe they are).

Oh, not that it matters but I have been on plenty of empty buses and there are people walking outside in this city of over 10 million.

No offence but I wouldn't bet my life on this statement.

[jwkunkle]

I heard rumors that the actual infected number in China is closer to 90,000 right now. No way to substantiate and have no clue what the truth is. Something about a Chinese nurse that was speaking out.

[77T]

Originally Posted by 3 Putt

As of this morning, 43 of my employees have the virus and are quarantined in WuHan. They went there for Spring Festival as it is their hometown.

I’m sorry to hear and know that’s worrisome. We are so new to this new strain’s outbreak that even the epidemiology on those who recover is unknown.

Will it be like an acquired immunodeficient recovery where reinfection of others is a danger after recovering?




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[77T]

Originally Posted by jwkunkle

I heard rumors that the actual infected number in China is closer to 90,000 right now. No way to substantiate and have no clue what the truth is. Something about a Chinese nurse that was speaking out.

I don’t say Chinese health officials are covering up anything.

It is very possible that the reported numbers are a fraction of the real cases. Even here in US with flu reports, the cases reported are perhaps 1/5th the real count. Often persons with influenza do not go to the doctor or are not tested or reported.

So it is possible the numbers are huge.
Prayers for the infected, and for the officials who must get this under control.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Fat_ninja]

The 90,000 number came from NYPost. No one really knows the potential cases.


But tonight official cases spiked to 7711 and 170 deaths


The WHO had an emergency briefing tomorrow at 1:30 pm. The dumbasses should make the right call tomorrow and call it a Global Emergency

[Ichiran]

I understand the Chinese Health authorities are able to streamline the testing process and they now have a test kit that allows the result to be known in 2 hours. That's why we are seeing a spike in infections over the past few days. I don't believe they have anything to hide at this point, but their focus is wholly on containment and building up the capacity of their hospitals.

Jeff - I wish your colleagues speedy recovery and beat this monster of a virus.

[3 Putt]

Thanks Michael....

[envuks]

Originally Posted by envuks

1/27 ~12:00noon ET: ~2600 cases, 80 deaths.
1/28 ~4600 cases, 107 deaths
1/29 ~midnight ET: ~6000 cases, 132 deaths

1/29~10:30 ET: ~7700 cases, 170 deaths

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by envuks

1/29~10:30 ET: ~7700 cases, 170 deaths

Y’all know there’s charts on those links right?

[daOnlyBG]

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307

Am I the only one not worried??

I am not.

People call the spread of the coronavirus "exponential," and there's just so, so much wrong with that (simply because something is non-linear doesn't make it exponential).

Refer back to the SARS spread figure from earlier in the thread and compare the shape of that curve to this one.

Also, people fail to take into consideration the coronavirus' mortality rate and how it compares with... you know, the general flu.

[Ichiran]

Has anyone seen such long queues at your local hospital during peace times, with patients reporting symptoms of fever and breathing difficulties? Many more were turned away because the hospitals have no beds. Does this looks like general flu to you?

46eff7ea-3e99-11ea-a16e-39b824591591_image_hires_042942.jpeg.jpg

Way too early to discuss mortality rate arising from this virus at this point in time.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

Has anyone seen such long queues at your local hospital during peace times, with patients reporting symptoms of fever and breathing difficulties? Many more were turned away because the hospitals have no beds. Does this looks like general flu to you?

Attachment 1105846

Way too early to discuss mortality rate arising from this virus at this point in time.

The photo doesn’t prove anything about the virus, but it does prove the power of panic.

I strongly suspect many of the people in the picture don’t actually need to be there - regardless of the eventual mortality rate the majority of healthy individuals who contract this virus will suffer a mild, self-limiting respiratory infection.

I’m already seeing people - in the UK - presenting with simple colds but worried about coronavirus because they were on a plane with some Chinese people a month ago.

As a thought experiment, imagine if Trump were to wake up today and on a whim announce (erroneously) that coronavirus was spreading rapidly through NYC. Then imagine what ER waiting rooms in Manhattan would look like in the afternoon.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

The photo doesn’t prove anything about the virus, but it does prove the power of panic.

I strongly suspect many of the people in the picture don’t actually need to be there - regardless of the eventual mortality rate the majority of healthy individuals who contract this virus will suffer a mild, self-limiting respiratory infection.

I’m already seeing people - in the UK - presenting with simple colds but worried about coronavirus because they were on a plane with some Chinese people a month ago.

As a thought experiment, imagine if Trump were to wake up today and on a whim announce (erroneously) that coronavirus was spreading rapidly through NYC. Then imagine what ER waiting rooms in Manhattan would look like in the afternoon.

You reckon it's just mental? All in the mind?

Including all confirmed 180 deaths (increasing by 30 daily, still increasing) due to this virus over the past 5 days within a city? That's mild for you?

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

You reckon it's just mental? All in the mind?

To be clear, I don’t doubt the potential seriousness of this outbreak. Nobody actually knows yet. Personally I suspect the doomsday merchants are wrong, as they usually are but that’s just me. The comparison with ‘flu is made because both are potentially serious respiratory infections yet ‘flu, which kills hundreds of thousands annually - i.e. is confirmed to be deadly serious - provokes little fear in the media or amongst the public. Yet this coronavirus outbreak, whose severity is unknown (though the mortality rate quoted thus far is almost certainly a gross overestimate because the true number of infections is inevitably much higher than the confirmed number - many people who contract it will be invisible to statistics and wouldn’t even know they have it) is headline news in places where it shouldn’t be news at all.

My response to your post was to point out that ER attendances are not a reliable proxy for severity of illness. It is, for example, estimated that up to 50% of casualty attendances in the U.K. are unnecessary.

It stands to reason that if you tell your population that there is a deadly infection whose symptoms are cough, coryza and fever and it’s spreading rapidly, a lot of people who have minor illnesses will turn up unnecessarily to hospital. It is one of several reasons why the media response to this phenomenon is irresponsible.

Originally Posted by Ichiran

Including all confirmed 180 deaths (increasing by 30 daily, still increasing) due to this virus over the past 5 days within a city? That's mild for you?

I’m happy to debate you in good faith but I’m out of here if you’re going to deliberately misconstrue my words. ‘Flu kills 600,000 people per year yet for most people it is mild and self limiting. I’ve had it at least twice and I was fine. Despite the hysteria, coronavirus is likely similar for most. Not all, obviously.

[LandWatch]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

To be clear, I don’t doubt the potential seriousness of this outbreak. Nobody actually knows yet. Personally I suspect the doomsday merchants are wrong, as they usually are but that’s just me. The comparison with ‘flu is made because both are potentially serious respiratory infections yet ‘flu, which kills hundreds of thousands annually - i.e. is confirmed to be deadly serious - provokes little fear in the media or amongst the public. Yet this coronavirus outbreak, whose severity is unknown (though the mortality rate quoted thus far is almost certainly a gross overestimate because the true number of infections is inevitably much higher than the confirmed number - many people who contract it will be invisible to statistics and wouldn’t even know they have it) is headline news in places where it shouldn’t be news at all.

My response to your post was to point out that ER attendances are not a reliable proxy for severity of illness. It is, for example estimated that up to 50% on casualty attendances in the U.K. are unnecessary.

It stands to reason that if you tell your population that there is a deadly infection whose symptoms are cough, coryza and fever spreading rapidly, a lot of people who have minor illnesses will turn up unnecessarily to hospital. It is one of several reasons why the media response to this phenomenon is irresponsible.



I’m happy to debate you in good faith but I’m out of here if you’re going to deliberately misconstrue my words. ‘Flu kills 600,000 people per year yet for most people it is mild and self limiting. I’ve had it at least twice and I was fine. Despite the hysteria, coronavirus is likely similar for most. Not all, obviously.

It’s gratifying to read a balanced assessment.

[pickettt]

No one seems to be interested in the worst measles outbreak in the past 30 years anymore.

[Zakalwe]

For those interested, a detailed analysis of the first 99 patients treated for the infection at the Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan has been published in the Lancet medical journal.

[locutus49]

I'm the one who should be worried. Ninja's friends are all Jewish and my neighbors are, for the most part, Chinese. I'd start wearing one of those masks around the condo area but I'm afraid it would offend someone. lol

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

It’s accellerating

[Bigblu10]

Originally Posted by locutus49

I'm the one who should be worried. Ninja's friends are all Jewish and my neighbors are, for the most part, Chinese. I'd start wearing one of those masks around the condo area but I'm afraid it would offend someone. lol

Aren't you overreacting just a little bit? US residents are urged to carry on their daily life activities and not be concerned. There are only a handful of cases so far and the CDC is on top of it. There are no deaths in the US.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by locutus49

I'm the one who should be worried. Ninja's friends are all Jewish and my neighbors are, for the most part, Chinese. I'd start wearing one of those masks around the condo area but I'm afraid it would offend someone. lol

Oy vey gavalt

hashem wills it

[Jim Smyth]

Yowza.......................https://www.dailywire.com/news/thous...ign=benshapiro

[singe89]

Originally Posted by locutus49

I'm the one who should be worried. Ninja's friends are all Jewish and my neighbors are, for the most part, Chinese. I'd start wearing one of those masks around the condo area but I'm afraid it would offend someone. lol

every time I go back to Irvine I feel the same way and that happens to be where the reported case is.

[MasonDixon]

The CDC has confirmed the first person-to-person transmission in the United States. It's the husband of the patient in Chicago.

[East Bay Rider]

Originally Posted by swils8610

I’m not worried about it living in US. The scary thing is how fast it’s spreading and the amount of people that affected by it. The idea of how fast it’s spreading over several continents is insane. A virus like this could potentially wipe out millions of people world wide.

I agree. It's the incubation time that's offputting. Someone gets infected last week in China then touched something that someone else touches before boarding a plane. That person sneezed and infected more, one of whom may have visited your company on business a week ago or more. How would anyone know? It's a game of telephone, "pass the infection" style.
It is worrisome.

Originally Posted by 3 Putt

... As of this morning, 43 of my employees have the virus and are quarantined in WuHan. They went there for Spring Festival as it is their hometown. I know a few things about China too. Stay safe. I hope there is "clear overreaction" as you indicate.

I'm very sorry to hear this. I hope they all get the medical attention they need and that they recover soon.

[Rock]

It is clear that health epidemics of this kind are a global phenomenon resulting from the level of international travel that has become the norm, and that viral epidemics will continue to be a common event in the future.
What concerns me most is that governments (certainly the Australian government) have apparently learned little form previous outbreaks.
Several weeks down the track health authorities are now thinking it would have been a good idea to have started tracking returning citizens from Day 1 rather than Day 21.
The Immigration and Customers Officers in our international airports have threatened strike action because nobody thought about whether they should be provided with protective gear.
Up until now, the Federal government has spent most of it's energy assuring citizens that there was no need to be alarmed. Their lack of a plan and any timely action has meant that now a lot of people are alarmed.
I am intrigued to learn that some people think there is no need to be concerned because a lot of people are killed annually by many other means. I wonder if they might be a bit more concerned if it was themselves or a close family member who was a 'statistic'.

[Fat_ninja]

The mortality rate is not being captured inappropriately. You need to adjust for the incubation period