the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Letsgodiving]

This may have already been posted in the thread I haven't read the whole thing. A running tally of cases, deaths etc. per country.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by Tha Baron

Suppressed? I've seen her on CNBC like 10 times this week...

3 to 4% death rate is not being reported here. We are told 80% it’s just a cold which means a much lower death rate. That doesn’t make mathematical sense, isn’t that more in line with ~>1%? At least I don’t think so. (shrug) Anyway plenty of good reads of healthy, younger folks going through it and it doesn’t sound like fun at all. I know how a cold feels. And I know what bird flu feels like — it was horrible. But this sounds way worse. I don’t buy the narrative here.

[FHFinster]

My plan:





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[Cryten]

Originally Posted by danbl68

Nope....it is the 3rd most common virus in Europe and Asia...why now?! We have had it in the US, we have had it everywhere, the only difference is that NOW it is known. There had been many people who have been ill from it and even died from it but all thought that it was the flu virus or another virus. Just like any other one, WASH YOUR HANDS WITH SOAP AND WATER! Be smart and avoid those who are sick around you, and yea, maybe you shouldn't travel to areas where it is prevalent......but honestly, after ALL that we have been through, this, too, shall pass.

The Coronavirus is a family of viruses. SARS was a Coronavirus. The biggest difference here is that the Wuhan virus has a section of its genetic sequence that isn't natural. This genome section has been questioned repeatedly by virologists, yet isn't news worthy for some reason.

Wuhan has a level 4 virology lab that just happens to be 8 miles from the market which is blamed for the outbreak (even though patient zero never went there). This lab has a long and "googlable" history of working with Coronaviruses (with major funding coming from the US......oddly).

Apply the logic test, would China essentially shut down their economy for 2000ish deaths?

The Chinese doctor who identified this new virus and blew the whistle (and was silenced by the CCP) died from this virus.......do you think he thought to wash his hands?

We can all hope this blows over, but so far it's looking bad. Many businesses use the "just in time" stock model to reduce costs, situations like this show how vulnerable they've made themselves. If you run your house on the same model you might be in trouble. Everywhere it hits, supermarket shelves are empty in a day or two. Forget the masks, making sure you and the family can survive independently for a few weeks (or more) might be a prudent move.

[Laszlo]

The lab in question is actually only 400 yards away from the market that’s already been proven not to be the source. Also new reports coming out of China are showing a sudden rebound in new cases including spread in Beijing. There were also 909 new cases in SK and Cambodia had to shutter several factories. :(

[Cryten]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

The lab in question is actually only 400 yards away from the market that’s already been proven not to be the source. Also new reports coming out of China are showing a sudden rebound in new cases including spread in Beijing. :(

On Google maps it's 8.6 miles (travel distance, not linear). After this information began to spread, it suddenly moved 21 miles away in the middle of a forest. This was also noticed by many and Google moved it back to it's original location. I just checked. It hasn't moved again.

This lab was "proven" not to be the source? By whom was it proven? And how was this done?

[El Cascarrabias]

Originally Posted by Cryten

. . . The Chinese doctor who identified this new virus and blew the whistle (and was silenced by the CCP) died from this virus . . .

How do we really know he died from the virus?

[Cryten]

Originally Posted by El Cascarrabias

How do we really know he died from the virus?

He was interviewed by phone on his death bed, coughing and struggling to talk. There is a recording doing the rounds in the media. I don't speak Chinese so I have to trust the translation.

I can say with a fair degree of certainty that he didn't die in a car crash. Google is your friend on this one.

[danbl68]

Ps regular masks don’t work...you need the N95 and be clean shaven


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[superdog]

Reading all the latest updates. This is bad. Just going to get worse. No end in sight.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by Cryten

On Google maps it's 8.6 miles (travel distance, not linear). After this information began to spread, it suddenly moved 21 miles away in the middle of a forest. This was also noticed by many and Google moved it back to it's original location. I just checked. It hasn't moved again.

This lab was "proven" not to be the source? By whom was it proven? And how was this done?

The market has been proven not to be the source. I believe that’s 100%. The lab is still an open question. The structure of the virus continues to be a debate. Me personally have made my own determination.

PS that’s hilarious the lab kept moving away on GM.

[77T]

Originally Posted by superdog

Reading all the latest updates. This is bad. Just going to get worse. No end in sight.

I get your feeling Seth - perhaps over exposure to the constant stream of bad news?

But this will get better - not immediately - but it will.

It has just begun - so we need to remain hopeful for the family members who are bound to be more frightened by it than we should reasonably be.


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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by superdog

Reading all the latest updates. This is bad. Just going to get worse. No end in sight.

It’s definitely bad for 80+ years old and unhealthy people. It will most definitely end though.

[Cryten]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

The market has been proven not to be the source. I believe that’s 100%. The lab is still an open question. The structure of the virus continues to be a debate. Me personally have made my own determination.

PS that’s hilarious the lab kept moving away on GM.

Sorry, I misread your post. Yes, the information to date disproves the market at the original source, however it could certainly be responsible for helping spread it.

As for the Google Maps thing? Maybe just a glitch in the matrix.

This is one of the screen shots doing the rounds:



There are also Google Earth screen shots showing the new location to be a forested area. It's been moved back now. It's probably just a coincidence, why would anyone be concerned with the location of China's only level 4 virology lab?

[Bigblu10]

Originally Posted by Patton250

It’s definitely bad for 80+ years old and unhealthy people. It will most definitely end though.

The flu is likely worse for the elderly and unhealthy folks with compromised immune systems. Just a perspective

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Patton250

It’s definitely bad for 80+ years old and unhealthy people. It will most definitely end though.

Everything ends.

Even potentially our time on this planet. Don’t get me wrong, I dont think we are even close to that.

But my question is how bad will it end. World markets destroyed? Global territories closing borders and shutting down travel? Essentials being hoarded and law and order breaks down? Military rule of law? Quarantines?

I’m not panicking. Please don’t misunderstand. But this is all possible.

And my wife went onto amazon and found many different essentials depleted. You can be certain I’m going to the supermarket first thing tomorrow to stock up and non perishable food items. Yo be honest, I’m fearful that I’m too late and much will be gone. I’ll update the thread tomorrow.

Just getting prepared. I do think the potential is there for this to be bad. Real threat or not. Fear and panic by the masses can make it real.

1. Long gestation period with no symptoms.
2. Easy to transmit
3. Can get multiple times
4. Likely the relatively few people infected now have been infecting others for weeks.
5. There is every possibility that every day will simply bring more news of more infected.

Can this blow over? Of course. Absolutely. But signs don’t point to that right now. All logical signs point to this just being the very beginning.

Just saying, better to be prepared, than not. I’m definitely taking this super seriously.

And so is my family. My father is the perfect candidate for this to be a mortal infection.

Am I worried? Will it keep me awake tonight? No, I’m not and it will not. But certainly I’m watching this and concerned with the potential implications.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

The flu is likely worse for the elderly and unhealthy folks with compromised immune systems. Just a perspective

Very true.

But the flu is known. This is new and unknown and it’s the panic that can actually make this worse than something relatively innocuous.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

The flu is likely worse for the elderly and unhealthy folks with compromised immune systems. Just a perspective

I got that info from a coronavirus graph I saw.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by superdog

Everything ends.

Even potentially our time on this planet. Don’t get me wrong, I dont think we are even close to that.

But my question is how bad will it end. World markets destroyed? Global territories closing borders and shutting down travel? Essentials being hoarded and law and order breaks down? Military rule of law? Quarantines?

I’m not panicking. Please don’t misunderstand. But this is all possible.

And my wife went onto amazon and found many different essentials depleted. You can be certain I’m going to the supermarket first thing tomorrow to stock up and non perishable food items. Yo be honest, I’m fearful that I’m too late and much will be gone. I’ll update the thread tomorrow.

Just getting prepared. I do think the potential is there for this to be bad. Real threat or not. Fear and panic by the masses can make it real.

1. Long gestation period with no symptoms.
2. Easy to transmit
3. Can get multiple times
4. Likely the relatively few people infected now have been infecting others for weeks.
5. There is every possibility that every day will simply bring more news of more infected.

Can this blow over? Of course. Absolutely. But signs don’t point to that right now. All logical signs point to this just being the very beginning.

Just saying, better to be prepared, than not. I’m definitely taking this super seriously.

And so is my family. My father is the perfect candidate for this to be a mortal infection.

Am I worried? Will it keep me awake tonight? No, I’m not and it will not. But certainly I’m watching this and concerned with the potential implications.

Do you think we should shut the schools down? Perhaps all air travel? Most definitely the theme parks. If you are even 1/10th right we should don’t you think?

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Do you think we should shut the schools down? Perhaps all air travel? Most definitely the theme parks. If you are even 1/10th right we should don’t you think?

I have a conference in Atlanta 2nd week of March. It’s international and there will likely be tens of thousands of people. Me plus 5 of my team. I think I’m going to cancel the trip.

That’s if they even keep the show open. I doubt they will.

I don’t know if everything should close for now. Part of me certainly says precautionary measures need to taken.

But maybe it’s a big nothing. I just don’t know. From what I see though?

Certainly theme parks and non essentials should be evaluated right now.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by superdog

Everything ends.

Even potentially our time on this planet. Don’t get me wrong, I dont think we are even close to that.

But my question is how bad will it end. World markets destroyed? Global territories closing borders and shutting down travel? Essentials being hoarded and law and order breaks down? Military rule of law? Quarantines?

I’m not panicking. Please don’t misunderstand. But this is all possible.

And my wife went onto amazon and found many different essentials depleted. You can be certain I’m going to the supermarket first thing tomorrow to stock up and non perishable food items. Yo be honest, I’m fearful that I’m too late and much will be gone. I’ll update the thread tomorrow.

Just getting prepared. I do think the potential is there for this to be bad. Real threat or not. Fear and panic by the masses can make it real.

1. Long gestation period with no symptoms.
2. Easy to transmit
3. Can get multiple times
4. Likely the relatively few people infected now have been infecting others for weeks.
5. There is every possibility that every day will simply bring more news of more infected.

Can this blow over? Of course. Absolutely. But signs don’t point to that right now. All logical signs point to this just being the very beginning.

Just saying, better to be prepared, than not. I’m definitely taking this super seriously.

And so is my family. My father is the perfect candidate for this to be a mortal infection.

Am I worried? Will it keep me awake tonight? No, I’m not and it will not. But certainly I’m watching this and concerned with the potential implications.

I’m aligned with you on this, Seth. It’s simply math and it’s pretty clear where things are leading. Of course there will be an end to it. But as noted above this truly is just the beginning. Also this isn’t an 80+ issue, it’s a 50+ issue, death rates for 50-60 is >1%, 60+ >3%, and it goes up from there. 80+ is low teens I believe. Then there are one-offs from 10 plus years up to 40/50. I’m not concerned about getting sick but incredibly concerned about the financial collapse and geopolitical probabilities. Those are downright frightening. The market will crash 40%. That’s near guaranteed.

[BBL]

.
From a Diamond Princess tourist who has CV -- "I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad."

https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/opi...d-15093664.php

Wishing him wellness.

[A971]

Originally Posted by BBL

.
From a Diamond Princess tourist who has CV -- "I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad."

https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/opi...d-15093664.php

Wishing him wellness.

Most mild cases recover.



But I think the happy feel good of that story is going to get lost now with:

-1st death in the US in Washington State and a declaration of emergency

-China mfg PMI fell to 35.7!! from 50 prev. This is the lowest level ever recorded. Lowest level in the financial crisis was 38.8.



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[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by A971

Most mild cases recover.



But I think the happy feel good of that story is going to get lost now with:

-1st death in the US in Washington State and a declaration of emergency

-China mfg PMI fell to 35.7!! from 50 prev. This is the lowest level ever recorded. Lowest level in the financial crisis was 38.8.



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Mild is a very positive story. That’s ~40%. I think it’s misleading that 80% has become the new mild number. That’s not right to make people feel it’s just a cold and it’s an old person or underlining conditions only concern or issue.

Also to note PMI, China’s economy at that time (2008/9) was half of what it is today, so that PMI number is absolutely crushing.

[BBL]

.
.
The Diamond Princess tourist in medical treatment is a lucky one that has made it thus far, but did mention that six who contracted CV on same cruise had perished.



Further of note:
CDC asking public not to purchase N95 masks (USA) - leave for healthcare workers.

https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-warns-sav...162144855.html

[Laszlo]

The Vatican has confirmed in a statement that Pope Francis and two of his aides have tested positive for the novel Coronavirus. Story is highly suspect.

[Pantheon]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

The Vatican has confirmed in a statement that Pope Francis and two of his aides have tested positive for the novel Coronavirus. Story is highly suspect.

Don't think the Vatican will release something like that. Although the pope did fall ill after a mass so it is definitely possible. The pope also has had prior lung problems and with his age, I can imagine if he does get it, it will be highly unlikely he will make it

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by Pantheon

Don't think the Vatican will release something like that. Although the pope did fall ill after a mass so it is definitely possible. The pope also has had prior lung problems and with his age, I can imagine if he does get it, it will be highly unlikely he will make it

It looks to be fake news.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by BBL

Further of note:
CDC asking public not to purchase N95 masks (USA) - leave for healthcare workers.

https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-warns-sav...162144855.html

More nonsense. We healthcare workers have access to them before the general public do.

[Letsgodiving]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

I’m aligned with you on this, Seth. It’s simply math and it’s pretty clear where things are leading. Of course there will be an end to it. But as noted above this truly is just the beginning. Also this isn’t an 80+ issue, it’s a 50+ issue, death rates for 50-60 is >1%, 60+ >3%, and it goes up from there. 80+ is low teens I believe. Then there are one-offs from 10 plus years up to 40/50. I’m not concerned about getting sick but incredibly concerned about the financial collapse and geopolitical probabilities. Those are downright frightening. The market will crash 40%. That’s near guaranteed.

Well, if you believe what you said earlier "Don’t be surprised if this leads to an exchange of nuclear arsenal." why stop at 40%?