the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[c41006]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

This is a Florida beach yesterday. Full of spring breakers ignoring the warnings about the pandemic.

Hmm I had a coworker cancel his FL trip this week due to the beaches being closed. I guess they aren’t closed?

[Token74]

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

Unfortunately not everyone gets it. Lots of people think the red wave is better because it gets the outbreak over with faster. I think the public messaging should explain in a simple, logical fashion why the blue wave is better. Many people just aren't able to draw their own inferences about second-order consequences

I’d like to see the same visual but with the number of cases requiring healthcare services overlaid. If only 10% of cases require healthcare services/treatment, then surely Red is better? If 90% of cases require healthcare services/treatment then clearly Blue is better.


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[superdog]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/f...090303639.html


This would be something.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by c41006

Hmm I had a coworker cancel his FL trip this week due to the beaches being closed. I guess they aren’t closed?

Not yet, they aren't.

[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by Token74

I’d like to see the same visual but with the number of cases requiring healthcare services overlaid. If only 10% of cases require healthcare services/treatment, then surely Red is better? If 90% of cases require healthcare services/treatment then clearly Blue is better.


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While I defer to our medical experts that flattening is better, ultimately it's a projection that depends on the assumptions baked into it. Maybe the UK's NHS has a different viewpoint on hospitalization rates. leaders have to make make hard decisions on short notice.

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by superdog

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/f...090303639.html


This would be something.

That would be phenomenal if true.


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[Carry The Interest]

Big three OEMs in North America (Ford, FCA, GM) are closing down plants following continued pressure from UAW. Official announcement coming soon - news sources right now are varying from full shutdown to partial shutdown with precautionary measures.

[LandWatch]

Originally Posted by Moggo

That would be phenomenal if true.


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Yes, if true!

[joeychitwood]

Hopefully, if and when a company develops an antiviral effective against the Coronavirus, they won’t be allowed to charge $1000 or $5000 a dose in the US as they do with every other new medication.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Token74

I’d like to see the same visual but with the number of cases requiring healthcare services overlaid. If only 10% of cases require healthcare services/treatment, then surely Red is better? If 90% of cases require healthcare services/treatment then clearly Blue is better.


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The issue with that graph is that the Y-axis isn’t to scale, it’s just illustrative.

The government’s worst-case projections give an upper bound of 70% of the population eventually becoming infected, which is just shy of 50 million people. If only 1% of those require hospitalisation, that’s 500,000 in a country that currently has about 100,000 NHS hospital beds that perennially operates at 100% capacity. All that happening in three months would decimate not only a large number of COVID victims but also a large number of poor sods who had the bad luck to get ill with a completely unrelated problem at the wrong time.

Then bear in mind that some estimates put the hospitalisation rate at 10% rather than 1% (I believe this is an overestimate but I could easily be wrong) and you see the scale of the potential problem.

[BBL]

Originally Posted by superdog

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/f...090303639.html


This would be something.

Seth:

Same subject from another news source:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN215025

TOKYO/BEIJING (Reuters) - Shares in Japan’s Fujifilm Holdings Corp (4901.T) surged 15% on Wednesday after a Chinese official said an active ingredient of the company’s Avigan anti-flu drug appeared to help coronavirus patients recover.

Avigan, also known as Favipiravir, is manufactured by a subsidiary of Fujifilm, which has a healthcare arm although it is better known for its cameras. The drug was approved for use in Japan in 2014.

Favipiravir has been effective, with no obvious side-effects, in helping coronavirus patients recover, Zhang Xinmin, an official at China’s Science and Technology Ministry, told reporters at a news conference on Tuesday.

But a Fujifilm spokesman said the company expects no direct earnings impact from potential sales growth of Favipiravir in China, at least for now, as its license for the key ingredient in the country already expired last year.

In Japan, Fujifilm manufactures Avigan only on receiving orders from the government and has no sales target for the drug, she said.

Fujifilm shares closed Wednesday up 15.4% at their daily limit high of 5,238 yen.

[statsman]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

Hopefully, if and when a company develops an antiviral effective against the Coronavirus, they won’t be allowed to charge $1000 or $5000 a dose in the US as they do with every other new medication.

It depends. If, after accounting for R&D amortization, a dose costs $800 to produce, then I am fine with them making a 25% profit. This is the lesson of economics- economics systems that reward productivity get lots of productivity. Systems that don’t reward productivity (communism, some socialism, robber baron capitolism) don’t get as much productivity.

The hepatitis cure famously cost $100k...at first. What should a hepatitis sufferer say in response? “Thank you”. It took a little over a year for the cost to drop dramatically, and people should feel grateful to the researchers that helped them.

[gmh1013]

I drove 75 miles west of Houston to a small town ....Columbus TX to get a few groceries ....they were better stocked than anything in Houston area.
I was down to my last roll and thought I was going to have to offer a trade....
I will trade you my Rolex EXP for you 6 pack of crapper paper.
At least i got some canned stuff and frozen waffles and some nasty TV dinners.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

The issue with that graph is that the Y-axis isn’t to scale, it’s just illustrative.

That’s right. It was adapted by NIH/CDC and an article in the Economist to get increased public awareness of the need for flattening the curve. A few days ago it was widely used in news reports with varying success.

I also agree that case load and death rate will vary by opportunity to access healthcare.

Theta θ (mortality rate) will vary...





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[77T]

Originally Posted by gmh1013

I drove 75 miles west of Houston to a small town ....Columbus TX to get a few groceries ....they were better stocked than anything in Houston area.

I was down to my last roll and thought I was going to have to offer a trade....

I will trade you my Rolex EXP for you 6 pack of crapper paper.

At least i got some canned stuff and frozen waffles and some nasty TV dinners.

Day old newspapers all of a sudden gain new value...you and I are old enough to understand that!


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[Patton250]

What were the numbers for Italy today? I know the report at 1 PM eastern time US. Thanks

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by Patton250

What were the numbers for Italy today? I know the report at 1 PM eastern time US. Thanks

4207 new and 475 new deaths. Staggering.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

4207 new and 475 new deaths. Staggering.

That’s way up from yesterday. :-(

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

This is a Florida beach yesterday. Full of spring breakers ignoring the warnings about the pandemic.

I’m the one in the Speedo

[jatco]

Am I missing something..??
What's with the high demand and stock piling of toilet paper...?
Are you using more than normal... Just

[TswaneNguni]

CNN :Italy, 3500 new cases per day

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by Patton250

That’s way up from yesterday. :-(

Yes, Italy's trajectory is troubling. Their numbers come out to 591 per mill. By far the highest of any country.

[bayerische]

Well, with this seizure of basically all business we're all going to be living in hut's and caves anyway pretty soon... Any trades for a squirrel skin?

[Blansky]

Postcards from the Edge.

Maui has had 3 confirmed cases. The stores are beginning to close or have limited hours and restaurants are beginning to close or have takeout only.

Trouble in Paradise.

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by gmh1013

I was down to my last roll and thought I was going to have to offer a trade.... I will trade you my Rolex EXP for your 6 pack of crapper paper.

I will make that trade with you when next you run out. I’m setting aside 6 rolls, plus a bonus of 4 extra rolls because I’m such a good guy.

[AS1]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

4207 new and 475 new deaths. Staggering.

Not sure where this data is from. There were 2,648 new cases today. The trend of new cases is showing stabilization. This is welcome news.

[Seibei]

The bad news is that this seems to be completely out of control in some major population centers such as London. Official statistics also seem unreliable and too low.

"Following UK health advice, Soryl called emergency services – about three times before she managed to get through. She gave her details, and symptoms.

"They essentially said you just need to stay at home, there's nothing we can do.

"They stopped testing people a couple of days before I got sick."

She was told only those over 65, or in hospital care, were being tested.

"Which is ridiculous because it goes against everything the World Health Organisation says we should be doing.

"It makes it really hard to know if you've got the virus."

But nurses and doctors on the country's health phoneline said "they were quite positive that we had the virus".

She was told to self-isolate for 14 days.

Five more came down with the same illness, which made eight of a workplace of 12, followed by her two flatmates.

She believed more people were sick than official numbers would show. Many there were not taking minor symptoms seriously and isolating themselves.

"Being in London, it's a massive risk. On a train that thousands of people commute on every hour.""

They are not testing, there is nothing they can do, stay at home and we hope you don't die is essentially the message from UK health care which is clearly overwhelmed. People like this are not going to appear on official statistics for Corona virus cases.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...covid19-ordeal

The good news is that cures are being developed.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN215025

More bad news:
more than 4000 new cases in Italy and more than 400 new deaths. Given the situation in that country this is probably under reported.

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by AS1

Not sure where this data is from. There were 2,648 new cases today. The trend of new cases is showing stabilization. This is welcome news.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[77T]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

This is a Florida beach yesterday. Full of spring breakers ignoring the warnings about the pandemic.

Hi Joey - can you post a link to that photo?


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[Seibei]

Originally Posted by Moggo

From my reading of the whole thing it appears you guys in the US are doing a better job than we are in the U.K.

You seem far more proactive, maybe I’m wrong.


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I think you are right.

"Following UK health advice, Soryl called emergency services – about three times before she managed to get through. She gave her details, and symptoms.

"They essentially said you just need to stay at home, there's nothing we can do.

"They stopped testing people a couple of days before I got sick.""

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...covid19-ordeal

Read the whole article. It seems like this is completely out of control in London. No testing and infected people commuting, working and quickly spreading the virus to others. Boris's herd immunity plan seems to be in force.