Govberg asking US$37.5k for LNIB Blue 5711. What is going on?!

[Watch Admirer]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Its a bargain at that price. No way to get one from an AD. If you want it now, its a good move.

Especially if you purchased jewelry before.

[Passionata]

Originally Posted by AK797

6 months ago this was fair comment, now I bet half the forum are thinking of entering this business.

Originally Posted by SC11

As long as you are not in the business of selling watches CG does not apply.

Originally Posted by SMD

Why would that be? If you are in the business it would be ordinary income not capital gains. But any collectible held for more than one year (less than a year ordinary income) that increases in value is taxable. Now whether people comply is an entirely separate matter. See IRS topic 409.

Edit: saw you are in UK. Same principle but I think they have to be worth more than £6,000.

With all my respect it s so funny guys that you are worrying on 10grands of pseudo gain taxation when your corporations are stealing billions and trillions from your budget with the double irish with dutch sandwich etc.

[SC11]

Originally Posted by Passionata

With all my respect it s so funny guys that you are worrying on 10grands of pseudo gain taxation when your corporations are stealing billions and trillions from your budget with the double irish with dutch sandwich etc.

Why so?

Need to be clear on the law in your relevant country as regardless what the big corporations do or don’t do I don’t fancy getting investigated and the implications there afterwards.

As I own my business I need to be squeeky clean business and personal accounts wise just not worth the hassle/cost.

[Passionata]

Originally Posted by SC11

Why so?



Need to be clear on the law in your relevant country as regardless what the big corporations do or don’t do I don’t fancy getting investigated and the implications there afterwards.



As I own my business I need to be squeeky clean business and personal accounts wise just not worth the hassle/cost.

Sure sure same here however i think you understand the absurdity of such things it s similar to the consequences of the last crash socializing the risk and privatizing the profit!
Have a great Sunday

[SC11]

Originally Posted by Passionata

Sure sure same here however i think you understand the absurdity of such things it s similar to the consequences of the last crash socializing the risk and privatizing the profit!
Have a great Sunday

Yep the world we live in!

Like wise fella have a good Sunday

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Passionata

With all my respect it s so funny guys that you are worrying on 10grands of pseudo gain taxation when your corporations are stealing billions and trillions from your budget with the double irish with dutch sandwich etc.

I always wondered how an entity could steal it’s own money from somebody else that’s taking it under threat of harm in the first place. No one has really been able to explain it to me. I hear the accusation often but have never understood it.

[PatekCollector]

Originally Posted by Hollister

They'll be 50k in a couple of years, mark my words.

Well said. This is also what I'm thinking

[Solicitor]

3 months after the original post....now they're selling up to 40kUSD in HK .

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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Solicitor

3 months after the original post....now they're selling up to 40kUSD in HK .

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Why would anyone do that when for not very much more they can get the all gold one?

[wisguy]

I've been trying to get one for a couple of months, seems hard to get below $37k, even the white dial ones are up there now...

Guess I'll have to wait for the 40th hype to cool down (or look at prices skyrocket)

I passed on one a couple of years ago at $25 preowned, for a while you saw many around at those prices (15202 at 18.5k as well, try now...)

[kingofthehill]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Why would anyone do that when for not very much more they can get the all gold one?

In my view, the 5711/1R is seeing growing popularity (as evidenced not least by a growing number of incomings on this forum, for example) and as the 5711/1A prices push higher - if that is what is to happen - this is likely to expand further. I imagine 5711/1R supply is very limited, perhaps materially more so even than the 5711/1A-010.

[Marciano490]

Originally Posted by kingofthehill

In my view, the 5711/1R is seeing growing popularity (as evidenced not least by a growing number of incomings on this forum, for example) and as the 5711/1A prices push higher - if that is what is to happen - this is likely to expand further. I imagine 5711/1R supply is very limited, perhaps materially more so even than the 5711/1A-010.

My thoughts exactly. Just bought a 5711r when I realized it only cost 8k more than what the steel would run me at this point. I also expect the rising tide to lift all boats.

[JayG]

The 5711 blue is now THE unicorn for a certain market. The limited production will ensure that heavy hitters will pay whatever it takes to get one quick. Unless one has a serious AD hookup, its gray market or wait and hope.

[Solicitor]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Why would anyone do that when for not very much more they can get the all gold one?

Yes one would really imagine how crazy the watch market is nowadays. 2 weeks ago I was in HK and it was the first time I did not buy a single watch.

PP Aquanaut blue dial WG brand new has a premium of almost 15k USD!

I've seen resellers from Manila bringing in BNIB Rolex sports model to be sold to grey dealers instead of the other way around.

The market has been controlled by profiteers and cartels and the best bet is to wait and hope that people dont buy until prices revert to normal.

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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by kingofthehill

In my view, the 5711/1R is seeing growing popularity (as evidenced not least by a growing number of incomings on this forum, for example) and as the 5711/1A prices push higher - if that is what is to happen - this is likely to expand further. I imagine 5711/1R supply is very limited, perhaps materially more so even than the 5711/1A-010.

Seems to me Patek feels they have more than enough money and don’t need anymore otherwise they would not be butchering capitalism like this. Either that or they just thoroughly enjoy watching the top 1% of income earners scramble around fighting for their product. I don’t know. Either way I’ve always felt uncomfortable having to beg a company to take my money. There’s just something immoral about it in my opinion.

[soundserious]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Seems to me Patek feels they have more than enough money and don’t need anymore otherwise they would not be butchering capitalism like this. Either that or they just thoroughly enjoy watching the top 1% of income earners scramble around fighting for their product. I don’t know. Either way I’ve always felt uncomfortable having to beg a company to take my money. There’s just something immoral about it in my opinion.

Your signature is quite telling mate. I guess George has a 5711/1a.

[tng11]

I think greys have become a lot more bold with pricing as of late. They just keep pushing asking prices higher, in the hopes other will follow, and buyers will panic and pay up.

One of my relatives in HK told me he was quoted the equivalent of US$51,000 for a 5712/1A. A local dealer in Toronto is asking $45,500 USD + 13% taxes for a 2014, pre-owned 5712/1A.

Personally, while I want a 5712, I don't want it badly enough to be paying these ridiculous prices. I passed on a BNIB at $36K a few weeks back and I don't regret it yet.

[kingofthehill]

Originally Posted by Marciano490

My thoughts exactly. Just bought a 5711r when I realized it only cost 8k more than what the steel would run me at this point. I also expect the rising tide to lift all boats.

And in that context, it’s worth noting the c. 8.6% US dollar premium (USD 4,400) the AP 15202OR carries over the 5711/1R (whilst the 5711/1A has a c 9.3% premium to the 15202ST at a USD 2,100 delta). Oddly, in GBP terms the 15202ST is at a small premium to the 5711/1A, whilst the 15202OR is at a near 20% premium to the 5711/1R).

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by soundserious

Your signature is quite telling mate. I guess George has a 5711/1a.

In this case my signature is accurate. I am cynical and I don’t have one. Lol. However I am strongly considering getting the 5711R. I am just trying to convince myself that I need one however myself is not convinced.

I will have to trade a couple of pieces that I love as well as spend capital. I just have to wonder when enough is enough.

[kingofthehill]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Seems to me Patek feels they have more than enough money and don’t need anymore otherwise they would not be butchering capitalism like this. Either that or they just thoroughly enjoy watching the top 1% of income earners scramble around fighting for their product. I don’t know. Either way I’ve always felt uncomfortable having to beg a company to take my money. There’s just something immoral about it in my opinion.

I’m not sure that we can assume that they are not acting in a capitalistic fashion; their job in this regard is to maximise (long-run) profits in the context of the resources they have. Perhaps this is indeed what they are doing.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by kingofthehill

I’m not sure that we can assume that they are not acting in a capitalistic fashion; their job in this regard is to maximise (long-run) profits in the context of the resources they have. Perhaps this is indeed what they are doing.

I’m not saying they should flood the market with these pieces however I would think that they would do their best to come close to filling the demand. Think of how many millions they make off just the people that frequent here. I suppose Apple could do the same thing and then people would be selling the iPhone X for $5000.

[kingofthehill]

Originally Posted by Patton250

In this case my signature is accurate. I am cynical and I don’t have one. Lol. However I am strongly considering getting the 5711R. I am just trying to convince myself that I need one however myself is not convinced.

I will have to trade a couple of pieces that I love as well as spend capital. I just have to wonder when enough is enough.

If we assume that Patek is maximising their production capacity and unwilling to expand this further, given growing customer demand - not only from an ever larger base of potential purchasers, but also from greater coverage of and access to newer markets - we can only expect supply constraints to worsen. Note also the diversification of the product mix.

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I’m not saying they should flood the market with these pieces however I would think that they would do their best to come close to filling the demand. Think of how many millions they make off just the people that frequent here. I suppose Apple could do the same thing and then people would be selling the iPhone X for $5000.

And when they finally balance supply and demand I have to.listrn to everyone whinge how Patek don't hold their value in second hand market. If you can get a new with no wait why would you buy pre owned unless at a discount?

[Marciano490]

Patek might be acting smart long term here. People were losing money on their watches lately, now they see they're viable investments again.

[Star Ferry]

Maybe the market price is over $35,000. But I bet only a handful of watches are trading. Dealers list the same watch on a dozen different platforms (their own website, Chrono24, eBay, forums, etc.) and it still takes weeks or months to sell

[kingofthehill]

One might argue that secondary market supply is artificially increased at present, as evidenced by statements on this thread, where current owners may be willing to sell their 5711/1As at current prices, seeing them as artificially inflated.

[kingofthehill]

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

Maybe the market price is over $35,000. But I bet only a handful of watches are trading. Dealers list the same watch on a dozen different platforms (their own website, Chrono24, eBay, forums, etc.) and it still takes weeks or months to sell

I do wonder if grey market dealers would generally really be willing to tie up capital in stock rather than collectively engage in price discovery?

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by kingofthehill

I do wonder if grey market dealers would generally really be willing to tie up capital in stock rather than collectively engage in price discovery?

Without question they are willing to hold. It’s one of the distinguishing characteristics that separates a dealer from a casual seller.

[Marciano490]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Without question they are willing to hold. It’s one of the distinguishing characteristics that separates a dealer from a casual seller.

Class action collusion suit?

[Passionata]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I’m not saying they should flood the market with these pieces however I would think that they would do their best to come close to filling the demand. Think of how many millions they make off just the people that frequent here. I suppose Apple could do the same thing and then people would be selling the iPhone X for $5000.

IMHO totally different markets (mobiles and high end jewelery) , if PP d supply the demand we d talk about here who had bigger discounts on their pieces rather the present exclusivity (however shameonwrist compared that piece exclusivity to a sexual organ lately :-) ), my idea it s the part of the strategy actually it worked very well to Rolex with the Daytona and now it works pretty well for PP the only thing that may have underestimate is the consumer surplus which is about 15 grand more than their current MSRP