Rolex Price Crash ? No I didn't think so

[WCHROLX]

You not serious .

[mmaggi]

For those in doubt... you'll see. It's happening already. And it will only get worse. We are just at the beginning of the recession. And it will mostly be for the SS sport models since they are the most overpriced.

As an aside: I received a text message TODAY from an AD offering a brand new at MSRP a) SS Deep Sea, b) 2 tone black dial Sub, c) 2 tone blue dial Sub, d) Root beer GMT. I've never purchased from this AD. That tells us I'm at the bottom of the list and was only contacted because all the hot shot buyers said no thank you. The time is not right. Now is not the time to buy for the majority of watch lovers.

[peterpl]

From first hand experience go try to sell some of the hot SS models.

You're gonna get some crazy low ball offers. Not only from private individuals but also big grays. LOL

[Likestheshiny]

From first hand experience go try to sell some of the hot SS models.

You're gonna get some crazy low ball offers. Not only from private individuals but also big grays. LOL

Well, yeah... even if demand is only softening a little, why would any online reseller commit to more inventory at high prices with so much economic uncertainty?

Those low offers don't correlate to market value, just to perceived risk -- that's not the same thing because of the market lag involved in carrying multiples of the same item in inventory. For market value, find an eBay auction (an actual auction) from a reputable seller.

[HTV88]

Originally Posted by RyanO

In times of uncertainty, buy gold, Rolex gold




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Nice watch bro, how long did you wait for it?

[Theoffice]

Global health scare about to be over soon, Thank goodness
Prices will continue to go up

[Rockland]

Originally Posted by schoolboy

I’m in the other 25%

Thanks for singling me out of the cool kids group hahaha

So you have the 7 or 8 figure salary?

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Theoffice

Global health scare about to be over soon, Thank goodness
Prices will continue to go up

[Miura Mario]

15% of restaurants in my area closed permanently and additional 20% expected. Lenders pulling home equity lines of credit on all investment related expendatures. Recession for sure depression 50/50. Rolex market to the moon for sure

[schoolboy]

Originally Posted by Rockland

So you have the 7 or 8 figure salary?

Let me put it this way....

I wish I had a six figure salary

[peterpl]

More and more videos coming out about Rolex prices and in fact ALL watch prices dropping bigtime.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJenvVg5zJo

[Onikage]

The get into debt to impress types might be cashing out at a faster rate. You know the sort. Influx of pre owned SS sports imminent. Previously used for twitter.

[Yess]

Originally Posted by mmaggi

As an aside: I received a text message TODAY from an AD offering a brand new at MSRP a) SS Deep Sea, b) 2 tone black dial Sub, c) 2 tone blue dial Sub, d) Root beer GMT. I've never purchased from this AD. That tells us I'm at the bottom of the list and was only contacted because all the hot shot buyers said no thank you. The time is not right. Now is not the time to buy for the majority of watch lovers.

I can't even get on a list for the these watches here in Sydney - nothing has changed at all (at the AD level). I may need to start looking at a move to wherever you are once I can fly again!

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by Yess

I can't even get on a list for the these watches here in Sydney - nothing has changed at all (at the AD level). I may need to start looking at a move to wherever you are once I can fly again!

Forget Sydney or all of Australia. Dont know how long you've been into watches but even long long long before the hype in any of the watches Sydney ADs were useless anyway

One of the worst countries to get watches in.

[Nightdate]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Forget Sydney or all of Australia. Dont know how long you've been into watches but even long long long before the hype in any of the watches Sydney ADs were useless anyway

One of the worst countries to get watches in.

Which ones do you think are/were the best please?

[mmaggi]

The denial that a world wide recession is here and not realizing what the effects of 30% unemployment can bring to a country is mindless.

[-Ally-]

Originally Posted by Onikage

The get into debt to impress types might be cashing out at a faster rate. You know the sort. Influx of pre owned SS sports imminent. Previously used for twitter.

These folks are easily spotted on TZUK sales corner already.

[Rexplorer214270]

Originally Posted by schoolboy

I’m in the other 25%

Thanks for singling me out of the cool kids group hahaha

Same

[leonardfell]

Originally Posted by exador

Dude, if it makes you so angry why don’t you take a break from the forums for a while...

+1

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by jlovda

I would bet 75% of the members who post here on TRF have six figure salaries with substantial savings. You just have to read various posts to see that. People such as this are really not financially affected by the virus. They start at really wealthy and drop to wealthy. For these people, this virus will be a buying opportunity. Prices will not drop much at all.

There maybe some accuracy to this. However, this kind of watch community is not the typical buyer. I know plenty of people with deep pockets and they can care less about watches. Most luxury watch buyers are one off people, they may want a Rolex but are not the kind of rabid (including myself in that lol) collectors/ enthusiasts you see here on the forums, rather aspirational buyers and purchase for a wedding gift, graduation gift, retirement etc. The prices are so sky high already and even if they come down, will have to get a great deal worse before anything approaching a fire sale happens.

However, what we have seen is a string of posts about an AD calling and all of a sudden they have xyz in the vault. Well, AD’s have to pay rent, and grays are not buying, so they will have to start taking their goods to the regular ole public again. So this will be a slow drip situation. Grays can’t just drop prices, that will lead to a spiral down among all grays. What you will see if you look at any major gray dealer are many, many GMT, daytonas sitting. How long they can sit and keep their lights on will determine how long they can hold out before dropping prices. I do think you will see an increasing divide between the advertised price and sale price. I also think it’s the best time to shop at an AD in the last 5 years. AD’s can not afford to play games now, they need to pay rent and their business lives depend on it now.

[Chadridv]

Just like the pandemic, evidence will only be apparent when we look back at this time. I do know though that a lot of gray dealers aren’t really buying watches right now, and if they are, they’re not offering much. They’re definitely not offering anywhere near where the market was a month ago.

[1William]

Interesting thread. The large AD's and the well know Trusted Sellers are capitalized at a very high level and do not have to have a fire sale to keep the doors open. I believe many of the Grey's are capitalizing on some panic and low balling potential sellers to hold inventory for the bounce back. With Rolex closed and some AD selling inventory out of safes that was not previously available, the market will blow up once this craziness calms down. If you thought prices were bad before, just wait. I look at inventory from the Grey's everyday and have noticed a dip in SS Daytona prices and GMT prices but the Submariners and most PM models are holding tight. I see a lot of threads on here where someone will hold up a individual list price or sale price and say that it is the market or it is a trend. Maybe, but it will take a lot more time and transactions for that to be the case across the board. You also have to filter out the pikers and naysayers who see doom and gloom in all events. This is bad, but we will get through it and move on to the next set of events.

[Rolexatlast]

depends on what you mean by market value

If you mean, what’s the market value of your current collection if you try to sell, then yes, prices are falling

If you mean, what’s the price to buy from a grey dealer, then no, prices are holding firm

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by HTV88

Nice watch bro, how long did you wait for it?

Thanks man. About 6 months, but only got the call so soon because they couldn’t get a hold of the guy in front of me and the AD was closing down. Apparently he’s pretty bummed now.... But I’m sure he will get the next one, whenever that is.


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[Marcjvr]

Well 16 million people are already out of work in the US over the last 3 weeks.

If 0.5% of those are/were Rolex buyers than that is 80 000 less Rolex customers out there. Some of them could have to liquidate their Rollie’s

As time goes on with the lockdown in place this is just going to get worse.

Rolexes are still just shiny watches that serve no real purpose other than being jewelry. Hardly a critical must have for most people right now

[Rolexatlast]

Once the speculators and flippers disappear, then waitlists will shrink

The low ball grey offers will hopefully drive this

[Ranger67]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Forget Sydney or all of Australia. Dont know how long you've been into watches but even long long long before the hype in any of the watches Sydney ADs were useless anyway

One of the worst countries to get watches in.

Don’t know if it’s the same in all of the UK but London area AD’s seem to be uninterested in selling.

[cocoabutter]

Originally Posted by Ranger67

Don’t know if it’s the same in all of the UK but London area AD’s seem to be uninterested in selling.

For now..... The landlord and bank waits for no one, staff costs needs to be paid and the amount of overheads especially in London is shockingly high.
Based on conversations I have had with regular people in business, many are just walking away. A friend of mine has handed the keys back to her Unit and is just focused on her family. She mentioned about a year back that she would love a simple rolex...Thats not happening now, so multiply that by whatever. Its not looking good at all. Stay safe everyone. Health is more important that watches.

[Ranger67]

Originally Posted by cocoabutter

For now..... The landlord and bank waits for no one, staff costs needs to be paid and the amount of overheads especially in London is shockingly high.
Based on conversations I have had with regular people in business, many are just walking away. A friend of mine has handed the keys back to her Unit and is just focused on her family. She mentioned about a year back that she would love a simple rolex...Thats not happening now, so multiply that by whatever. Its not looking good at all. Stay safe everyone. Health is more important that watches.

Been trying to get a Sub for 2.5 years at mrsp and thought due to the situation (sadly) I might be able to source now, but doesn’t seem the case.

[peterpl]

The problem now is that many will get burnt and to be quite frank the market was already soft back in December/January. Everyone knew that with prices already starting to dip.

The virus just exponentially escalated what was happening anyway with reducing prices and just general interest in watches being quite low. Even social media like Insta was becoming dead when it came to watches in Dec/Jan.

After all this settles there will not be the same amount of demand that is for sure. The hypebeasts are all gone already and after this the flippers wont be back.

I would bet my money on a long long flat period of watches for a long time. Everything is cyclic so who knows within 5 years it may become hot again once every dick and harry has made $300k in their share portfolios again.