Prices Dropping Hard??

[brucethemanlee]

Originally Posted by ademarco

It is funny everyone hoping for a recession to get a watch. They should be focused on adding more income producing assets like real estate, stocks, or expanding their business. Buy what you want or have assets that pay for your wants.


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+1

And how much will you be really to buy MSRP watch when your increments just took a 30% got in a recession. If you couldn't afford grey prices when markets are roaring how eager will you be spend on luxury item when works economies are in recession


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[mmmmp]

My brother bought a DJ41 *two days* ago and the AD mentioned a price *increase* is imminent. FWIW - I've purchased a few watches off him in his 30+ years as an AD. Although I cannot guarantee his info, he's been straight with us for a long time.

Just grist for the mill.

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[Rodrigo082]

I’m sure he is right - you can easy compare the prices from 4 weeks ago and the current prices , they were down by 20%

The Batman oyster - you can easily find for about 12K
Batman Jubilee- 14,500 K

[Dchan83]

Originally Posted by kdqq

Its already shown in the market prices.. Check out the Hulk... last month was asking 16K.
Now you see them at $14k

Asking price and sold price are two different things...maybe to close out inventory they came up with a more realistic number?

[Setarip]

Rolex SS and PP Nautilus craze reminds me of that Gainbridge insurance commercial about the Tulip bubble...

[rexG]

If there's going to be a "correction"......it wont be down to retail.....so one might save $1500 on a Pepsi or Daytona if they want to wait.....which they're doing now anyway...sooooo....

[Weasel20]

I would be very happy to see every Rolex selling for MSRP and available at the AD without all of the BS. Yes I would "lose" on my 116500 that I had to get through the grey market but overall it would be better for the consumers. The amount of speculation is unrealistic in my estimate. I don't see Rolex allowing supply to be that plentiful but there has to be a middle ground between the craziness we have today and a plentiful supply.

[ademarco]

Originally Posted by Rodrigo082

I’m sure he is right - you can easy compare the prices from 4 weeks ago and the current prices , they were down by 20%

The Batman oyster - you can easily find for about 12K
Batman Jubilee- 14,500 K

Where is this Batman Jubilee for $14.5k? I might be interested.


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[Fleetlord]

Call CRM and offer to buy a Pepsi -C for $10k and see what they say.

[rambo99]

it's true, at least in Hong Hong, grey market price has dropped like 15,20% for sought after ss models.

[watchmework]

Originally Posted by brucethemanlee

+1

and how much will you be really to buy msrp watch when your increments just took a 30% got in a recession. If you couldn't afford grey prices when markets are roaring how eager will you be spend on luxury item when works economies are in recession


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+1

[brucethemanlee]

Originally Posted by brucethemanlee

+1

And how much will you be really to buy MSRP watch when your increments just took a 30% got in a recession. If you couldn't afford grey prices when markets are roaring how eager will you be spend on luxury item when works economies are in recession


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Excuse all my typos

And how much will you be really WILLING to buy AN MSRP watch when your INVESTMENTS just took a 30% HIT in a recession. If you couldn't afford grey prices when markets are roaring how eager will you be spend on luxury item when WORLD economies are in recession



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[peterpl]

Originally Posted by rambo99

it's true, at least in Hong Hong, grey market price has dropped like 15,20% for sought after ss models.

Yep. I'm seeing the same thing.

HK is in big turmoil. Biggest watch market in the entire world is dropping fast - it will 100% overflow to the rest of the globe.

Massive massive hoarders in HK from the grays there. That is where I saw the most inventory I've ever laid my eyes on. Even heard today that grays are trying fast to move their stock to other countries like Indonesia, Taiwan, Japan to try to recoup their money.

HK watch market is dead until at least the turmoil there is well and truly over. Business is also suffering immensely in HK at the moment. No1 caring about watches in HK at the moment. LOL

[nektar]

Originally Posted by epicurus

thats why you buy what you like. period. watches arent meant to be an investment. I couldnt care less what prices are.....if anything, i can add to my collection for less.

Watches are not investment. Exactly.


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[SkagitDoug]

Originally Posted by 640alex

Not very scientific but I’m sure if I cared enough to compile the data I could prove my theory.

Care to share your theory?

[Kliminator]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I find him irksome ... to each their own.

Same - I subscribed briefly but never could get into the videos because his personality (or something) just didn't work for me

[Aztro]

I can’t think of a Watch I’ve been watching (and there are a few I’d like to buy once normality resumes) that has gone up in the last 1-2 months. I don’t think it is controversial to recognise that prices in the over MSRP Rolex category have been dropping- they fairly unambiguously have.

[Chester01]

I mean a broken clock is right twice a day. Global economy is showing serious signs of weakening, US is on a 10 year bull run. Anyone who has even an elementary knowledge of economics understands these things are cyclical.

[Yzord]

According to Chrono24 my collection is up 40% of retail value. Don't see it dropping.

[RJM25R]

Loads of people online, YouTube and forums plus shops saying that demand is dropping, sales are harder etc etc etc.


There’s also loads of people online, YouTube and forums saying you can’t lose, demand is high, can’t get enough, profit, investment etc etc etc

Somebody is probably right, but more by luck than knowledge.... because IF you had a sure fire way of “making it” you’d unlikely share it with the world....

Rudyard Kipling puts it best

“If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same”

[Wmrcer]

Originally Posted by brucethemanlee

Excuse all my typos

And how much will you be really WILLING to buy AN MSRP watch when your INVESTMENTS just took a 30% HIT in a recession. If you couldn't afford grey prices when markets are roaring how eager will you be spend on luxury item when WORLD economies are in recession



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Not hoping for a recession, I just won’t buy a watch or anything over msrp. Had my name down for the new c8 corvette, dealer called said to expect 15-20k over retail, nope not me.

[ozwatchguy]

Prices are falling and will probably continue to drop. AD’s will still have nothing on display now or later. The hot models will still be fetching well over MSRP. World will suffer a slight recession and no one will be buying anyway

[Flyinghunter]

I know exactly when prices will drop hard... the day after I buy my next Rolex.

[finestdealer]

Yes very

[CptCanuck]

The guy is a big deal in Miami. He moves a lot of the luxury watches here. So... not just a youtuber and he does know what he is talking about when it comes to market demand/grey market movers.

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[Ravager135]

People can dislike Eric's presentation style. I don't always agree with his broad generalizations when it comes to watches, but the guy is a reputable dealer in Miami. I have no reason not to trust what he is seeing in the market. Do I think it's going to come crashing down? Probably not.

Prices have skyrocketed due to the shortage of modern stainless steel pieces in ADs. Prices will balloon to a value wherein people will start to decide it is not worth spending that about amount of money. The market will then correct by lowering asking prices. I think this is a correction and that prices will not normalize until demand lowers or production increases.

[peterpl]

LOL - I've just been reading some sales posts on here and on other forums. Its so funny some of the bumps and comments that's happening. LOL

The ones from Asia are hilarious some of those comments - I can see some people are getting quite eager to flip their stock.

[sgrossma]

It's the slowest 2 weeks of the summer & year. Everyone relax :)

[sillo]

Originally Posted by Ravager135

I have no reason not to trust what he is seeing in the market. Do I think it's going to come crashing down? Probably not.

Agreed, I just think the "dropping hard" title is classic youtube clickbait for views.

He definitely has a large personal sample of sale prices to use to draw a conclusion and I think most people who are tuned in could've seen this. I don't think prices dropping from 50% over MSRP to 30% over is reason to panic at all. Only people who should be panicking are the flippers who've been hoarding stock and trying to drive the market up.

[huncho]

this is very reminiscent of crypto in 2017 just not as extreme. everyone fomoing into SS models because they think they can't lose money on it