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Old 23 February 2019, 04:57 AM   #31
SeaDweller50
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Originally Posted by tyler1980 View Post
then Rolex retains its retiree demographic and all is back to normal.

its been skewing young lately
Exactly
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Old 23 February 2019, 05:13 AM   #32
G M Francis
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It’s very subjective regarding buying on the grey market. My experience has always been good. They have the product in stock as opposed to the AD who invariably does not and can’t tell you when it’s coming in. The grey dealer wants your business and is pleased to be talking to you about a Daytona or a Sub. The AD finds it a pain as you’re the third person this week wasting his time. You pay over retail off the grey and get the watch to wear now. At an AD you wait and wait and when it does come in it’s usually more money than you first thought. If you want a TT or PM watch off a grey it usually comes in at a healthy discount. The AD likes you to buy similar watch at retail in order to be looked upon favourably on the waiting list. As they say “ you pays your money and you takes your choice “
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Old 23 February 2019, 05:30 AM   #33
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To pay premium to the grey is akin to adding fuel to this proverbial fire of Rolex "shortage." Not a wise move.
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Old 23 February 2019, 05:39 AM   #34
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I'd say it's a certainty that the Sub will be getting a new movement and the slight case update like the GMT, this year or next. When that happens do you guys really think they'll hold the green over into this new version? I say that's highly unlikely, and it will be discontinued soon.
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Old 23 February 2019, 05:57 AM   #35
Harry-57
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To pay premium to the grey is akin to adding fuel to this proverbial fire of Rolex "shortage." Not a wise move.
It's certainly part of the cycle which seems to be driving prices up. However, the source fuel for this fire is the supply of goods to the grey market, not the people buying them. It doesn't matter how much money you are prepared to spend, the goods you want need to be for sale on the grey market to begin with.

If the gougers have less to gouge with, the cycle will slow down. It might push prices up super high for the few items available, but this will just make a high proportion of potential grey buyers fall off. This is faster and easier than hunting down and killing all potential purchasers!
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Old 23 February 2019, 06:00 AM   #36
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I was told today by AD (in UK) still expecting deliveries.
They only expected a movement upgrade, perhaps price rise - but NO DISCONTINUATION of the models!!
Whoop Whoop! still hope for me! :)
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Old 23 February 2019, 06:06 AM   #37
sirC
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best response on this thread

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Originally Posted by beshannon View Post
All this analysis over buying a piece of jewelry.

You either want to buy a watch or you don't.
nailed it
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Old 23 February 2019, 06:26 AM   #38
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My 2 cents

Quote:
Originally Posted by G M Francis View Post
It’s very subjective regarding buying on the grey market. My experience has always been good. They have the product in stock as opposed to the AD who invariably does not and can’t tell you when it’s coming in. The grey dealer wants your business and is pleased to be talking to you about a Daytona or a Sub. The AD finds it a pain as you’re the third person this week wasting his time. You pay over retail off the grey and get the watch to wear now. At an AD you wait and wait and when it does come in it’s usually more money than you first thought. If you want a TT or PM watch off a grey it usually comes in at a healthy discount. The AD likes you to buy similar watch at retail in order to be looked upon favourably on the waiting list. As they say “ you pays your money and you takes your choice “
I have never been able to get a discount from an AD when they actually had inventory. I paid retail for a Stainless Daytona back in 2006. I paid a 10% premium over retail for a SD43 delivered next day and no sales tax. The difference for me was less than a grand after sales tax and am enjoying the watch TODAY. It was worth it to me. Your mileage may vary
The greys are not the problem.
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Old 23 February 2019, 07:29 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by Harry-57 View Post
It's certainly part of the cycle which seems to be driving prices up. However, the source fuel for this fire is the supply of goods to the grey market, not the people buying them. It doesn't matter how much money you are prepared to spend, the goods you want need to be for sale on the grey market to begin with.

If the gougers have less to gouge with, the cycle will slow down. It might push prices up super high for the few items available, but this will just make a high proportion of potential grey buyers fall off. This is faster and easier than hunting down and killing all potential purchasers!
I agree. The scarcity of goods in the marketplace is the result of the rise of demand and a constant supply.

But in a marketplace where people are practically making, in my view, an obscene profit by charging 20, 30, or even 100% markup for doing nothing more than buying and selling, I feel as a buyer I would be voting against my or my fellow consumers' economical interest to tacitly encourage it. I have no way to stop people from charging the markup, nor do I have any way to increase supply. The only weapon I have as a consumer is to not let the scalpers profit from me.

This is, of course, a number's game. If enough buyers refuse to let the scalpers profit from them, then we form a market force that can somewhat curb the profiteering. On the other hand if it turns out I am the only one in this then I know I am SOL in this game, lol. That is fine though. In this world I believe in doing my part for what I believe is right. After that, I am at peace with letting the chips fall where they may.
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Old 23 February 2019, 07:29 AM   #40
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I'm starting to get sick of the Hulk. So much hype. It is a cool watch but the harder it gets to acquire and the more expensive it gets the more people want it.

I remember when it was selling for a discount, then retail, then $1k premium, and now $4k premium. I totally appreciate a model being popular from the outset and hard to acquire but this watch is a case of wanting something they can't have for a lot of people.

I'm a simple man. There are watches I want that are easy to acquire and others that are really hard to get. I want them because I want them.
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Old 23 February 2019, 07:36 AM   #41
EDL7
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If want it..get it..
But remember..
What goes up...
Must..come down...
Just 3 years ago..no one wanted them..
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Old 23 February 2019, 07:47 AM   #42
TF7’s
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I’d find one on the grey market now, begin enjoying it. If you get the call from the AD then go grab it and sell it at a premium. By this logic you’re neither up or down, unless it continues going up. Then perhaps you could in fact be up?
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Old 23 February 2019, 07:50 AM   #43
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Wait and see if it gets the new movement. No way the current LVc is worth $12.5 let alone $14k.
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Old 23 February 2019, 09:30 AM   #44
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I would wait. I agree with your assessment that they are not moving well at 14K on the secondary market.
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Old 23 February 2019, 09:38 AM   #45
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Wait!!!!


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Why?

Like I said it's a gamble either way, I don't think there's a right or wrong necessarily, but I have my reasons to advise trying to buy one.

What are your reasons for waiting?
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Old 23 February 2019, 08:48 PM   #46
Batmannr1
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At two ADs on the list for the Hulk. Maybe this year I can pick it up or maybe not. All I need is patience.
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Old 23 February 2019, 10:18 PM   #47
bp1000
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just wait

I got a 12% discount on one 5 years ago, love it so much would have paid a slight premium, maybe 700-1k over list.

But not 4-5k. Just madness. Wait.

You could buy a DJ for the premium, and sell it without much loss or break even, IF it secured you next on the list.
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Old 23 February 2019, 10:23 PM   #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Harry-57 View Post
It's certainly part of the cycle which seems to be driving prices up. However, the source fuel for this fire is the supply of goods to the grey market, not the people buying them. It doesn't matter how much money you are prepared to spend, the goods you want need to be for sale on the grey market to begin with.

If the gougers have less to gouge with, the cycle will slow down. It might push prices up super high for the few items available, but this will just make a high proportion of potential grey buyers fall off. This is faster and easier than hunting down and killing all potential purchasers!
Yes the real arsonists are the flippers, those who are paying top dollar prices are actually watch enthusiasts in the main so I don't have much issue with them, it is the mercenaries and the collusion that have created the real imbalance.
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Old 23 February 2019, 11:58 PM   #49
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If you have it to burn, why not. What do the kids say, YOLO
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