When did the Rolex scarcity start?

[Screaminbones]

When I first started looking for a Rolex, it never dawned on me that the entry barrier would be availability.

[Danny83]

Summer 2017

[Meyrin]

Originally Posted by Danny83

Summer 2017

Yes, that's about when it started where I live...

[Largoshark]

Originally Posted by Danny83

Summer 2017

Haha the exact time I started getting into Rolex...July 2017

[harvey]

1st quarter 2017 UK

[2mgversed]

Definitely around then. Prices have shot up significantly. Should of buy a Rolex then than a Panerai. I wanted a SS black sub but I walked around Central Park and everyone had one...

[m j b]

I would suggest that for some models (SS Daytona for example) it's been since the 90s.

[superstarmar]

I’d say middle to end of 2016 but definitely
going into 2017 full swing...

SS Daytona like Michael ( M J B ) said since
the 90’s ... long time

[danny1305]

2016

[101031-28]

Originally Posted by Danny83

Summer 2017

Agree. Bought a pre-owned 116610LV (complete set) in November 2017 for USD 9500.00 after much hesitation as I was used to that same watch going for low to mid 7K. Was advised to buy as the availability of such piece would continue to decline and prices increase.

[Chillychow]

So, before lets say 2016, what did the grey market look like? What did Chrono24 and DavidSW have for margins on their Rolexes? It sounds like you would never have had to buy grey as the AD would have in stock what you wanted when you wanted it - and likely at a discount nonetheless. It didn't occur to me that this whole grey market (for Rolexes anyway) fiasco might be a new phenomena.

[1Zach1]

Originally Posted by Chillychow

So, before lets say 2016, what did the grey market look like? What did Chrono24 and DavidSW have for margins on their Rolexes? It sounds like you would never have had to buy grey as the AD would have in stock what you wanted when you wanted it - and likely at a discount nonetheless. It didn't occur to me that this whole grey market (for Rolexes anyway) fiasco might be a new phenomena.

They existed, they just weren't selling most Rolex SS watches at big premiums (Daytonas being the exception). ADs had much better stock, but that doesn't mean they had everything, all the time. And not all ADs would give discounts to walk-ins. The grey market filled in those gaps, watches that you couldn't always get, and lower prices.

[lain09]

Originally Posted by Chillychow

So, before lets say 2016, what did the grey market look like? What did Chrono24 and DavidSW have for margins on their Rolexes? It sounds like you would never have had to buy grey as the AD would have in stock what you wanted when you wanted it - and likely at a discount nonetheless. It didn't occur to me that this whole grey market (for Rolexes anyway) fiasco might be a new phenomena.

I bought a 114060 in Feb 2016 from a grey dealer. Full set never worn with all stickers for $6300.
I was following the market from late 2015 - late 2016 and the going prices for SS Sports models were -$1k from MSRP if grey dealer and will sit for awhile if not a full set. Otherwise the common advise was to shop around ADs to pay full retail to get your name on the warranty card and have the full buying experience from an AD - if this was worth the $1k premium.
How times changed and escalated so quickly. Subs and BLNR had a bit of a wait but haven't heard of 6+ month wait, I was able to try on SD4K and GMT LN from various ADs I've visited before they quickly dried up end of that year.
FWIW the same grey dealer had a very nice 14060M model that I initially went in to check out for around $4.8k and I thought that was too high. Around the same time Red 1680 Subs were around 13-15k, normal 5513s were going for around 8-9k.

[Dlong]

Purchased my sub date and wifes Blue DJ 41 in October 17 and they were everywhere discountable. So maybe late fall early winter 17???

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by Screaminbones

When I first started looking for a Rolex, it never dawned on me that the entry barrier would be availability.

It was slowly rolled out when the announcement came that COSC would no longer publish numbers from Rolex. Google that.

Most people have kept thinking Rolex produced the 1M watches, when in fact the very last number from the COSC was 750,000, so what happened to 250,000 over a year? .... And it's been years since they've posted any number so the production could be well down to 500,000, 400,000, 300,000 or 250,000. That's anyone's guess.

Originally Posted by Chillychow

So, before lets say 2016, what did the grey market look like? What did Chrono24 and DavidSW have for margins on their Rolexes? It sounds like you would never have had to buy grey as the AD would have in stock what you wanted when you wanted it - and likely at a discount nonetheless. It didn't occur to me that this whole grey market (for Rolexes anyway) fiasco might be a new phenomena.

This is where the film breaks on this forum. Prior to the scarcity, it would be a competition to get the biggest discount from a grey dealer. Whilst ADs would sell you a sub for -10%, you'd pick that up from a grey at -25%. Likewise an AD may have offered -25% for a platinum, but you'd pick it up for -30% from a grey. Short term memory loss for the most of this forum who doesn't understand the grey market.

[Simon_jrees]

Personally, I wouldn't have minded if they had put the price up a little providing they had the availability. Putting the price up and having Jack in stock (unless you have been lucky enough to walk into a sufficiently stocked AD or have been waiting patiently) is a little like salt in the wound.... but hey, it's the market right? It is what it is.

[jb335]

Originally Posted by danny1305

2016

Not 2016 in the US. I became a WIS and bought my first Rolex in Jan of 2017 and sport watches sold under MSRP thru grey. I bought my 116610LN for 7400 from a major grey. Hulks went for ~8k. You could walk into any AD then and buy a Sub (including Hulk) for MSRP but no one did since they could be had for under MSRP easily.
The BLNR was a little tougher to get at an AD, but you could buy them for the same as MSRP from grey all day long.

This was a reality in early 2017 in the US. I recall reading here about the UK having shortages then, but not in the States.

[enjoythemusic]

A bit after US FedRes QE3. Now with QE4Ever it's going to be near impossible until the currency crashes.

[lain09]

Originally Posted by jb335

Not 2016 in the US. I became a WIS and bought my first Rolex in Jan of 2017 and sport watches sold under MSRP thru grey. I bought my 116610LN for 7400 from a major grey. Hulks went for ~8k. You could walk into any AD then and buy a Sub (including Hulk) for MSRP but no one did since they could be had for under MSRP easily.
The BLNR was a little tougher to get at an AD, but you could buy them for the same as MSRP from grey all day long.

This was a reality in early 2017 in the US. I recall reading here about the UK having shortages then, but not in the States.

The UK was having a shortage due to the British pound dropping sharply from July 2016 and everyone wanting to take advantage of the conversion rates by getting cheaper Rolexes. I remember UK ADs only selling to locals.

[brandrea]

Pretty much after Basel 2017 and into the summer.

[Calatrava r]

Summer of 2017 is correct for the US. Rolex just stopped delivering watches. Most dealers had virtually nothing to sell for the holidays that year.

[MacDaddyOC]

Originally Posted by Screaminbones

When I first started looking for a Rolex, it never dawned on me that the entry barrier would be availability.

Funny, same here. I've been patiently saving up for a few years only to find out I can't purchase what I was looking for, due to scarcity. It never dawned on me since my research was limited years ago to the Rolex website.

Now that I'm on TRF, I feel like I at least know what is going on in the market and my expectations are now inline with reality.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by lain09

The UK was having a shortage due to the British pound dropping sharply from July 2016 and everyone wanting to take advantage of the conversion rates by getting cheaper Rolexes. I remember UK ADs only selling to locals.

Yup the shock Brexit vote collapsed the Pound from 1.4 to 1.2 and demand and prices changed from then on and spread around the world eventually.

[Nikrnic]

I bought the second from last Submariner (or so i was told) at one of the largest ADs near me on Nov.12-'17 as they expected one more delivery for the year and were pretty much out of all sports pieces by Christmas.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[peterpl]

There is no such thing as Rolex scarcity.

Everyone knows you can get any Rolex anytime landed to your door within 48hrs. That means the scarce factor is bullcrap. Its actually the opposite of scarce.

[Likestheshiny]

I got very lucky -- I bought my BLNR in spring 2017, in that magic window after the initial demand died down, but before all steel sports models disappeared. I actually paid a little less than MSRP. Hard to imagine that, now.

Everyone knows you can get any Rolex anytime landed to your door within 48hrs. That means the scarce factor is bullcrap. Its actually the opposite of scarce.

Pricing is based on rarity. By your logic, a Newman Daytona isn't scarce because anyone with $100k can have one within 48 hours. The Newman Daytona can probably be had within 48 hours by anyone willing to spend $50 million. Does that make it plentiful?

A notion of scarcity that excludes price is silly. By that logic, only things that don't exist are ever scarce.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by Likestheshiny

A notion of scarcity that excludes price is silly.

Meaning of scarce direct from the Cambridge dictionary

Scarce: not easy to find or get, not easily available or rare.

[subtona]

Zenith Daytona. ~1989

I’m still on 3 lists waiting for the call for one.

[Spartacus]

In my experience: 2013-2014. I was on a waitlist to receive my BLNR. You also had to be a VIP to see a Daytona ...forget about buying one.

The scarcity picked up in 2016, affecting more than just new and exclusive models but also stock stuff...like subs.

[jvb.nc]

Originally Posted by m j b

I would suggest that for some models (SS Daytona for example) it's been since the 90s.

this