Grey Market Overload

[supra8903]

Hello Friends.

Maybe it is just me, but all I am seeing for the last week is even more for sale threads with professional models. Maybe not the Daytona, but subs, GMTs, explorers, etc.
If you couple this with the new threads like... "New Sub without relationship with AD" and others like it... is the market saturated and finally rolling back toward normal.

I see a favorite gray currently showing 40 GMTs, 29 Subs, and 16 Daytonas.
That's roughly $2M in inventory. And this seems to be increasing daily.

Thoughts?

[Rori]

Hope so. One thread here has just stated a sub is sitting in the case for one week already.

[DoctorSpazz]

Originally Posted by supra8903

Hello Friends.



Maybe it is just me, but all I am seeing for the last week is even more for sale threads with professional models. Maybe not the Daytona, but subs, GMTs, explorers, etc.

If you couple this with the new threads like... "New Sub without relationship with AD" and others like it... is the market saturated and finally rolling back toward normal.



I see a favorite gray currently showing 40 GMTs, 29 Subs, and 16 Daytonas.

That's roughly $2M in inventory. And this seems to be increasing daily.



Thoughts?

Who’s your favorite gray ?


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[Watchdoctor998]

It definitely seems like a lot of people have been getting the Sub through from their AD recently (me included)! I guess this means one of two things: either there is now an increased supply of the SS submariner or rolex are selling stock before the update at Basel this april. Either way I see this as a good thing as we are getting the long awaited sub on our wrist to enjoy and if it does get discontinued then we get one of the last production watches of this fantastic 114060 model! What do people think?

[42itus]

When the hype dies down then people stop paying premiums. When people stop paying premiums then gray dealers stop offering to pay over retail to flippers. If flippers can't make money then they stop purchasing to flip. Slowly we start seeing more stock available. It's common sense and we are still far away from seeing SS in display cases but hopefully this is trending in the right direction. The only people who "lose" in this scenario are the ones that purchased with the thought of making money.

[SDR581]

I'm actually seeing grey market prices going up and dealers still have no stock

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[IndianRider]

Originally Posted by Rori

Hope so. One thread here has just stated a sub is sitting in the case for one week already.

Seriously? What's the thread?

[locutus49]

Excuse me, but you act like a sub update is a fact. As far as I know it is pure speculation, similar to the speculation that has preceded Basel each of the last couple of years. Please provide a citation if you are claiming it is a fact.

Originally Posted by Watchdoctor998

It definitely seems like a lot of people have been getting the Sub through from their AD recently (me included)! I guess this means one of two things: either there is now an increased supply of the SS submariner or rolex are selling stock before the update at Basel this april. Either way I see this as a good thing as we are getting the long awaited sub on our wrist to enjoy and if it does get discontinued then we get one of the last production watches of this fantastic 114060 model! What do people think?

[Mystro]

I follow our trust sellers a lot and I see nothing other than minor inventory ebbs and flows that I have seen over the last six months. It’s the same old, same old but with different flow of models as Rolex releases them. One month it’s the BLRO, next is the BLNR, SkyDweller, etc... The monthly releases are alway cyclical with Rolex. Subs being by far the oldest and most common model that are trading at a higher rate. There are also a lot of SS ceramic Daytona’s at these sellers like 7 at DavidSW alone.
Meanwhile no AD’s have a SS Professional model in the case.

Nothing is changing until you see them at AD’s.

[Watchdoctor998]

Originally Posted by locutus49

Excuse me, but you act like a sub update is a fact. As far as I know it is pure speculation, similar to the speculation that has preceded Basel each of the last couple of years. Please provide a citation if you are claiming it is a fact.

Apologies, I realise that an updated sub is only pure speculation with regard to this years basel. Thanks for pointing this out

[037]

Originally Posted by supra8903

I see a favorite gray currently showing 40 GMTs, 29 Subs, and 16 Daytonas.
That's roughly $2M in inventory. And this seems to be increasing daily.

Thoughts?

Let's assume Rolex produces ~1M watches annually and the watches you're seeing have been produced within the last 5 years (just to make mathematics simple). We can't assume they're all brand new. Some certainly are used.

(40+29+16) / 5M = 0.000017%

So, this secondary dealer has a fraction of a percentage of what's out in the world.

Hope that helps.

[MillyS]

Originally Posted by Watchdoctor998

It definitely seems like a lot of people have been getting the Sub through from their AD recently (me included)! I guess this means one of two things: either there is now an increased supply of the SS submariner or rolex are selling stock before the update at Basel this april. Either way I see this as a good thing as we are getting the long awaited sub on our wrist to enjoy and if it does get discontinued then we get one of the last production watches of this fantastic 114060 model! What do people think?

They can't discontinue the Sub..... can they? I am still yet to get mine.

[Rori]

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=584626

Originally Posted by IndianRider

Seriously? What's the thread?

[billfredericks]

Originally Posted by Rori

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=584626

Post is 2 years old.

[iliketime]

the speculations sure do get wilder the closer we get to Basel every year...

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by billfredericks

Post is 2 years old.

And still no closer to being correct

[djgallo]

Everything is the same....

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by supra8903

ers like it... is the market saturated and finally rolling back toward normal.
I see a favorite gray currently showing 40 GMTs, 29 Subs, and 16 Daytonas.
That's roughly $2M in inventory. And this seems to be increasing daily.

LOL

That is NOTHING!!! I've seen some grays hoarding ALOT more than that. The market is all manipulation and dealers/grays trying to portray a false sense of rarity.

Thats why all market has shrunk massively compared to 12 months ago - its nowhere near as hot as before. People a realizing all the dodgy stuff happening everywhere.

[AJMarcus]

In the past year I’ve noticed a change. To me it appears Rolex SS sports stock with grey dealers is overall stagnant with not many pieces moving like they were last year this time. Could it be gray dealer sales are being adversely affected by the recent stories of suspect watches from non ADs

[P1nky_Up]

Originally Posted by 037

Let's assume Rolex produces ~1M watches annually and the watches you're seeing have been produced within the last 5 years (just to make mathematics simple). We can't assume they're all brand new. Some certainly are used.

(40+29+16) / 5M = 0.000017%

So, this secondary dealer has a fraction of a percentage of what's out in the world.

Hope that helps.

Your math is flawed. You’re taking total production including all models and applying it to only these three models. I’d adjust to about a 1/4 of what you have so maybe 1.25M instead of 5 and even then I think that’s generous. The end result is still next to nothing.

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by supra8903

Hello Friends.

Maybe it is just me, but all I am seeing for the last week is even more for sale threads with professional models. Maybe not the Daytona, but subs, GMTs, explorers, etc.
If you couple this with the new threads like... "New Sub without relationship with AD" and others like it... is the market saturated and finally rolling back toward normal.

I see a favorite gray currently showing 40 GMTs, 29 Subs, and 16 Daytonas.
That's roughly $2M in inventory. And this seems to be increasing daily.

Thoughts?

The website shows watches that it doesn't own. They aren't in stock.While a few may be, and a few more consignment pieces, they are looking to solicit offers and when they get a price, they go and source the watch for a lower price to flip it to you.

Not all greys do this, but all greys are at heart flippers. That's the business model. They are just smart enough to get an offer price locked before they spend money to buy the watch.

[amanbra]

I just hope one day they get smashed with chunky losses when people realise there are other watches to buy and the market corrects. I’m sure they can sit on stock for awhile but at some point it’s chewing up too much working cap.

I also look forward to the day Rolex ads need to work for business.

Alternatively if omega could produce a few more watches that fit my wrist that would be great. I’d happily switch over.


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[P1nky_Up]

Originally Posted by amanbra

I just hope one day they get smashed with chunky losses when people realise there are other watches to buy and the market corrects.

I’d rather this not happen. Even though I’m not selling I still don’t want to open my watch box and feel that I lost $50-100k.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by supra8903

Hello Friends.

Maybe it is just me, but all I am seeing for the last week is even more for sale threads with professional models. Maybe not the Daytona, but subs, GMTs, explorers, etc.
If you couple this with the new threads like... "New Sub without relationship with AD" and others like it... is the market saturated and finally rolling back toward normal.

I see a favorite gray currently showing 40 GMTs, 29 Subs, and 16 Daytonas.
That's roughly $2M in inventory. And this seems to be increasing daily.

Thoughts?

Bound to happen. The Daytona, sub, GMT’s have now been in circulation a while and people on the lists are getting them. And it’s never been a shortage, rather the grays snapped up all the stock.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by P1nky_Up

I’d rather this not happen. Even though I’m not selling I still don’t want to open my watch box and feel that I lost $50-100k.

Your in this game for the wrong reasons then.

Why do you care if you bought the watches if you REALLY liked them and you bought them for yourself to enjoy. This is a hobby like any other hobby and 99% of hobbies are done for the love of it NOT because it will increase or maintain value.

By looking at your signature and what pieces you own - you got suckered into this hype thing.

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Bound to happen. The Daytona, sub, GMT’s have now been in circulation a while and people on the lists are getting them. And it’s never been a shortage, rather the grays snapped up all the stock.

Agreed. It will soon be time for a Gray yard sale

[ganagati]

Originally Posted by BroncoOne

The website shows watches that it doesn't own. They aren't in stock.While a few may be, and a few more consignment pieces, they are looking to solicit offers and when they get a price, they go and source the watch for a lower price to flip it to you.

Not all greys do this, but all greys are at heart flippers. That's the business model. They are just smart enough to get an offer price locked before they spend money to buy the watch.

There were a few videos floating around of at least one gray dealer flaunting his massive inventory. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if multiple others had similarly stocked drawers.

[jvb.nc]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Your in this game for the wrong reasons then.

Why do you care if you bought the watches if you REALLY liked them and you bought them for yourself to enjoy. This is a hobby like any other hobby and 99% of hobbies are done for the love of it NOT because it will increase or maintain value.

By looking at your signature and what pieces you own - you got suckered into this hype thing.

i agree with you on all points except the final one.

i have a lot of the “hype” pieces, and i love them, and i don’t plan on selling them. for me, each is a different expression of an ethos i admire and support; a robust watch that will work in any condition. so while i understand that many folks out there HAVE succumbed to the hype and bought pieces specifically because they’re hot or selling high, there are some of us that just plain like them.

but i am fortunate to not be concerned with long-term valuation. i just love my watches.

[037]

Originally Posted by P1nky_Up

Your math is flawed. You’re taking total production including all models and applying it to only these three models. I’d adjust to about a 1/4 of what you have so maybe 1.25M instead of 5 and even then I think that’s generous. The end result is still next to nothing.

Well, to be fair, the AD owners I know have each said independently that their shipments remain just as steady as always. The difference now is that watches are essentially sold before they hit the cases (and, no, not out the back door). Even if a mathematical assumption of 1M annual production is high, it's not 4X too high.

[jvb.nc]

Originally Posted by 037

Well, to be fair, the ad owners i know have each said independently that their shipments remain just as steady as always. The difference now is that watches are essentially sold before they hit the cases (and, no, not out the back door). Even if a mathematical assumption of 1m annual production is high, it's not 4x too high.

+1