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Old 7 December 2021, 06:58 AM   #91
GreenLantern
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Oh, and the "LVMH" in the year on the caseback is incredibly tacky.
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Old 7 December 2021, 07:00 AM   #92
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I would collect it at retail or up to $100k gray. Other then that, I don't think so.

Therefore I am out :). Would say the same for the green one too...
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Old 7 December 2021, 07:04 AM   #93
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Tiffany limited edition 5711

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Wonder when LVMH buys Patek..

I think it might be done already.

Patek does not create “170th anniversary” models. Its usually 175, 200 etc. Also, while Tiffany stamp on the dial is a tradition, the LVMH logo on the caseback is a surprise. They dont just print a conglomerate logo on their casebacks.

This to me feels like an unofficial release to celebrate LVMHs purchase of Patek. Remember, Bernard Arnault tried to buy Patek twice before, in 2014 and 2018. Maybe Sterns finally decided to exit at the hight of the watch market.

I expect the details to be released soon.

Edit: Add the fact that the release was not done via traditional watch media like Hodinkee or Monochrome, but via business media like CNBC and NY Times. This is a foreshadowing of the bigger corporate deal to be announced soon.


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Old 7 December 2021, 07:08 AM   #94
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I realize there's a lot of doom and gloomers out there, and this will sound like it, but...

If LVMH buys Patek, I consider it to be the death of Patek for us, long term.

Hublot has been a success in LVMH's eyes.

They've already been making procedural and policy changes internally at Tiffany that make it so that Tiffany is not what it once was. Patek will go the same way.

This isn't a company that likes to be hands off (ala Disney x Pixar when Disney bought Pixar).

Just look at who is CEO of Tiffany now.
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Old 7 December 2021, 07:14 AM   #95
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I 100 percent believe arnault will buy Patek. The valuation has to be borderline unbelievable compared to where Patek stood 5-6 years ago before IG and crypto took watches on a moonshot. I wouldn’t blame Thierry for cashing out.
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Old 7 December 2021, 07:18 AM   #96
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I 100 percent believe arnault will buy Patek. The valuation has to be borderline unbelievable compared to where Patek stood 5-6 years ago before IG and crypto took watches on a moonshot. I wouldn’t blame Thierry for cashing out.
Agreed. I would be disappointed, but I definitely would not blame him. The valuations are absurd. Cash out at the top if your heart's not in it.
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Old 7 December 2021, 07:20 AM   #97
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love it



to BrunoMalik, you raise a very interesting question regarding the announcement decisions.



(FYI, my quote function doesn't work in this terrible surface pro that i am forced to use at the moment.)
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Old 7 December 2021, 07:21 AM   #98
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I 100 percent believe arnault will buy Patek. The valuation has to be borderline unbelievable compared to where Patek stood 5-6 years ago before IG and crypto took watches on a moonshot. I wouldn’t blame Thierry for cashing out.

So the rumored bid in 2018 was $10bn. The sterns declined it. What do you think the bid is now? $20bn? 30bn?…


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Old 7 December 2021, 07:27 AM   #99
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So the rumored bid in 2018 was $10bn. The sterns declined it. What do you think the bid is now? $20bn? 30bn?…
Would not surprise me if it was $20B.

I also have confirmation on the $10B bid in 2018.
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Old 7 December 2021, 07:33 AM   #100
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I 100 percent believe arnault will buy Patek. The valuation has to be borderline unbelievable compared to where Patek stood 5-6 years ago before IG and crypto took watches on a moonshot. I wouldn’t blame Thierry for cashing out.
Cash out and do what.
But maybe I'm wrong, He said he don't want Patek to be about one particular watch then bring out a green and now a Tiffany dial.
Moving on trend and creating a stir, no publicity is bad publicity.
Lets be honest, they have broke the internet today but maybe this is a new chapter for Patek.
Personally, Tiffany is a love to all women they should of maybe brought it out on the 7118 or the twenty 4 but to do it on the 5711 when people thought the green was the last roll of the dice just seems odd and untrustworthy.
They go on about flippers, buying watches and then reselling them but to make a statement that the green will be the last run and bring out a even more exclusive piece is just dishonest
However if I could get a Tiffany would I buy it YES
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Old 7 December 2021, 07:35 AM   #101
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Would not surprise me if it was $20B.

I also have confirmation on the $10B bid in 2018.
I think it would need to be more probably in excess of 25 if not 30 billion
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Old 7 December 2021, 07:37 AM   #102
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Tiffany limited edition 5711

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Would not surprise me if it was $20B.

I also have confirmation on the $10B bid in 2018.

So based on Morgan Stanleys research note earlier this year, Patek had revenues of CHF 1.16bn in 2020. They will probably generate CHF 1.4-1.5bn in 2021.

If the bid is indeed $20bn, it would put the Price/Sales multiple at 12x. That is actually not that crazy considering that Ferrai’s 2021 P/S multiple is around 11x.

With that mind, im thinking it needs to be $25-30bn.


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Old 7 December 2021, 07:39 AM   #103
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Yes, a very cheap looking printed crystal with the letters "LVMH" included in the '2021' lettering.
Just noticed that, terrible. It's a billboard of words, there's a book on the backside so the owner feels special?
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Old 7 December 2021, 07:41 AM   #104
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So based on Morgan Stanleys research note earlier this year, Patek had revenues of CHF 1.16bn in 2020. They will probably generate CHF 1.4-1.5bn in 2021.

If the bid is indeed $20bn, it would put the Price/Sales multiple at 12x. That is actually not that crazy considering that Ferrai’s 2021 P/S multiple is around 11x.

With that mind, im thinking it needs to be $25-30bn.
Seems to make sense.
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Old 7 December 2021, 07:49 AM   #105
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Cash out and do what.
But maybe I'm wrong, He said he don't want Patek to be about one particular watch then bring out a green and now a Tiffany dial.
Moving on trend and creating a stir, no publicity is bad publicity.
Lets be honest, they have broke the internet today but maybe this is a new chapter for Patek.
Personally, Tiffany is a love to all women they should of maybe brought it out on the 7118 or the twenty 4 but to do it on the 5711 when people thought the green was the last roll of the dice just seems odd and untrustworthy.
They go on about flippers, buying watches and then reselling them but to make a statement that the green will be the last run and bring out a even more exclusive piece is just dishonest
However if I could get a Tiffany would I buy it YES

No clue whatever he wants I guess. Maybe focus on Philanthropy? I don’t know what’s going on in his head.

I guess I just mean if he plans to ever sell now feels like an opportune moment. I have no horse in the race. Don’t care what he does. Independent is best but it’s his business.
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Old 7 December 2021, 07:50 AM   #106
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Wonder when LVMH buys Patek..

Only one thing standing in the way.


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Old 7 December 2021, 08:11 AM   #107
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We can't say this is a surprise really?

Would I take one, sure I'll love to own a Nautilus...

Everyone is easily able to predict what this is going to be priced at on the re-sale market... well north $1 million US. If not $ 2 million US.




It's just astronomical not only how much these would re-sale for but the thought that majority of the people that will be offered this watch would just buy it knowing that the will easily make a $1 million off it.

Definition of the rich getting richer. Patek should just action each one of these off and have the proceeds (minus the "MSRP" of the watch) go to a charity.

I fail to see why they need to or should offer it to "VIP" clients. You want the watch enough, go pay the market value of it in the auction and the "flip" goes to a proper charity benefiting people that need it.

I find Patek knowing this fact and not creating a proper statement is more outrageous than the watch itself.
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Old 7 December 2021, 08:15 AM   #108
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Only one thing standing in the way.


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His wife wants more
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Old 7 December 2021, 08:24 AM   #109
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Four locations
170 units
A lot of watches
Some people will be very lucky
here is my allocation - 150 for NYC, 10 for SF and 2 for hawaii (some Japanese billionaires) :) unsure where the last location is but they will have the other few :)
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Old 7 December 2021, 08:28 AM   #110
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We can't say this is a surprise really?

Would I take one, sure I'll love to own a Nautilus...

Everyone is easily able to predict what this is going to be priced at on the re-sale market... well north $1 million US. If not $ 2 million US.




It's just astronomical not only how much these would re-sale for but the thought that majority of the people that will be offered this watch would just buy it knowing that the will easily make a $1 million off it.

Definition of the rich getting richer. Patek should just action each one of these off and have the proceeds (minus the "MSRP" of the watch) go to a charity.

I fail to see why they need to or should offer it to "VIP" clients. You want the watch enough, go pay the market value of it in the auction and the "flip" goes to a proper charity benefiting people that need it.

I find Patek knowing this fact and not creating a proper statement more outrageous than the watch itself.
why would they not create a watch to celebrate one of the oldest ADs for their 170th anniversary?
Do I get upset that I can't get an aquanaut - maybe. but obviously this watch is to go to the most deserving clients - I also dont get upset about their sky moon allocations.
It's not like I am expecting a GT2RS after buying a few macans over the years.
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Old 7 December 2021, 08:29 AM   #111
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Wonder when LVMH buys Patek..
I was thinking modern PP is more appropriate for Richemont ownership. LVMH is a bit more upscale.
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Old 7 December 2021, 08:45 AM   #112
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why would they not create a watch to celebrate one of the oldest ADs for their 170th anniversary?
Do I get upset that I can't get an aquanaut - maybe. but obviously this watch is to go to the most deserving clients - I also dont get upset about their sky moon allocations.
It's not like I am expecting a GT2RS after buying a few macans over the years.
I'm not commenting on why they did it or who is it actually going to get it. It's all pretty obvious.

The green Nautilus is pretty obvious example of higher production version of this "special" edition. More than a few will be slipping through the cracks into the public market while some others will quietly get sold in the private market. Greed is pretty evident and 100% many are going to capitalize on this and make more than a few bucks to pad their bank account.

What I'm saying is knowing that this is surely the case. Why have your so called Tiffany VIPs make the million and pocket it. Auction every allocation off and use the proceeds to a charity (not just that one watch).



... I'm not on the camp to stop flipping, etc. like all those regular production Nautilus watches or even stainless steel Rolex. I could care less and I do believe in the free market; but for a "special" piece like this... even if the watch was meant to be a hype piece, Patek has a way better opportunity demonstrate what their brand is (or could be) about and contribute to a better cause.
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Old 7 December 2021, 08:53 AM   #113
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I'm picking allocation up next week
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Old 7 December 2021, 08:54 AM   #114
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After seeing this goofy watch and all, I would love LVMH or Richemont to buy PP. I find it pretty embarrassing.

After subtracting out all of the ones that go to despots and robber barons, I supposed the regular Uber Rich can get theirs? -Makes Ferrari seem downright altruistic in comparison.

I’m going to light a candle tonight and pray that Apple keeps doing their thing.
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Old 7 December 2021, 08:54 AM   #115
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I'm picking allocation up next week
Let’s get ready for a new round of “Incoming…” threads!
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Old 7 December 2021, 09:00 AM   #116
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I like it. Fingers crossed.


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Old 7 December 2021, 09:09 AM   #117
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Although I’m an active and youthful 40 something, I’ve recently become a wining old man due to recent world events. Is this the same Patek Philippe I used to aspire to? It can’t be aimed at young people because I’m assuming it would be too expensive, I don’t understand. Audemars Piguet, it’s your turn to use this attention grabbing dial colour.
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Old 7 December 2021, 09:11 AM   #118
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Because no one celebrates a 170th anniversary.

That's why.
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Old 7 December 2021, 09:20 AM   #119
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I had a similar reaction when seeing the AP Marvel partnership and Black Panther Concept, but come on, this is completely different imho...
yeah agreed, it's a 5711 with blue tiffany dial - what's not to love? I don't get the hate at all. the only thing I could have done without is the LVMH logo on the back.
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Old 7 December 2021, 09:22 AM   #120
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yeah agreed, it's a 5711 with blue tiffany dial - what's not to love? I don't get the hate at all. the only thing I could have done without is the LVMH logo on the back.
The hate is because people like to take serious people at their word when they say "This is it. It is over."

Joke's on us.
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