Grey Market Prices Coming Down (daily tracker)

[ind1982]

Originally Posted by Rado63

Only issue with this data is that you are tracking the lowest priced watch that meets your conditions, new, located in US, box papers. Using 126710 BLRO as an example, On C24 today the lowest price for a 126710BLRO is $15725 while the highest price is $22265. The median price would be a better tracking statistic rather than the lowest price. Also on C24 today only 88 watches are listed as 126710 BLRO for sale in the US. Since Switzerland has shut down production, these 88 watches are the inventory for today. So keep track of the number in inventory, and the median selling price. If inventory declines what will happen to price? If more sellers enter the market and inventory rises due to cash flow issues, then what will happen to price? Or does inventory remain constant and prices just drop? All three are different reactions to market conditions.

I disagree. Lowest price seems more appropriate.

[dimag333]

If your gonna do it do it right, do the average price only of nib

steve

[Cwillis0001]

Originally Posted by dimag333

If your gonna do it do it right, do the average price only of nib

steve

Nib as in New in Box? No such thing on the grey market. They're all at the very least second hand watches and in a lot of cases third, fourth, or fifth hand.

[RJM25R]

Originally Posted by FSL

+/- $1000 MSRP in NOT in distant future. IMO.

Quoted for delusion, sorry I mean posterity....

[dnpina]

Riveting...

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[dimag333]

Originally Posted by Cwillis0001

Nib as in New in Box? No such thing on the grey market. They're all at the very least second hand watches and in a lot of cases third, fourth, or fifth hand.

Once you bring condition In it’s out the window, you gotta look at new w/o stickers, like every reputable grey has, not flippers, that’s the real market, too many variables once you introduce different conditions. If you are gonna compare to msrp it has to be the same condition

steve

[aw9nineteen]

Originally Posted by TankTom

I must be one of the few who really don’t care whether a watch has dropped by 0.1% since covid 19

Ehh. One may wonder why you decided to click on this thread, if it is of no consequence...


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[Yess]

Originally Posted by VacherObsessive

The people wishing that Rolex sports models go back to MSRP so they can finally buy their first one, would have never actually bought one if the used price matched or dropped below MSRP in the first place. They’re all daydreamers

Way too broad a generalisation to be even close to true.

There are number of people I know in the 35-55 age range, who don't have Instagram, don't follow watch trends, aren't collectors, etc, but know of Rolex's quality and brand appeal. Do you know how surprising it is when they walk in to an AD, after checking out the watches on the Rolex website, and being told there's a two year wait on a Sub?

It's not about price - it's about availability. If you want to pay double for a watch, go for it - your money. But all I see coming from the current situation is that I - and many like me - will maybe, and it's still a big maybe, be able to walk into an AD and get the watch we want at the MSRP set by Rolex. And I, like many others, won't care what it is worth the moment we leave the store.

[Theoffice]

Tracking the outliers doesn’t seem to give a good indication. Looks pretty steady

[mikkolopez]

About time we see the start of a price correction, virus or not.

Thanks OP for doing this.


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[Solo118]

If it helps, I saw DavidSW put up a white dial 116500 for $20.9k!

https://davidsw.com/watches/rolex-wa...white-dial-30/

[JoseR]

Originally Posted by Cwillis0001

Nib as in New in Box? No such thing on the grey market. They're all at the very least second hand watches and in a lot of cases third, fourth, or fifth hand.

Not sure what grey dealer you deal with but both of my Rolex were from grey's and both were NIB unworn and full set ad one with my name on the card. There's are very trusted grey dealers that don't sell you second, third, fourth ect.. Can't bad mouth all for the fault of one...

[JoseR]

Originally Posted by mikkolopez

About time we see the start of a price correction, virus or not.

Thanks OP for doing this.


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Haven't seen it yet. I was just looking at a few watches I'm interested in and the prices have not change since last month. Maybe later on but right now looks about the same, nothings changed..

[mjr24]

I always check the major sellers on EBay, too. I know a Hulk just went for under 12k buy it now a couple weeks ago and then the same gray listed another for $500 higher....so they definitely are trying to get pricing up.

Hulks and Batman have definitely come down a couple grand. Take into account the buyer now is required to pay sales tax on all sales and the seller loses $1k off the price in fees. In other words, most buyers are now paying $1k more than they had to 6 months ago.

Smart thing to do would be to do a wire for $500 less than Ebay price.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Rado63

Only issue with this data is that you are tracking the lowest priced watch that meets your conditions, new, located in US, box papers. Using 126710 BLRO as an example, On C24 today the lowest price for a 126710BLRO is $15725 while the highest price is $22265. The median price would be a better tracking statistic rather than the lowest price. Also on C24 today only 88 watches are listed as 126710 BLRO for sale in the US. Since Switzerland has shut down production, these 88 watches are the inventory for today. So keep track of the number in inventory, and the median selling price. If inventory declines what will happen to price? If more sellers enter the market and inventory rises due to cash flow issues, then what will happen to price? Or does inventory remain constant and prices just drop? All three are different reactions to market conditions.

Median price is useless, as you still have idiots asking $26k for Daytona’s which they’ll never get, not now, not next year, probably not ever. You have to filter out the stupidity

[ironjim]

Great job

[dmash]

Originally Posted by VacherObsessive

The people wishing that Rolex sports models go back to MSRP so they can finally buy their first one, would have never actually bought one if the used price matched or dropped below MSRP in the first place. They’re all daydreamers

I (along with many others) have certainly been in this game longer than you and would never pay over retail price.

Somebody could say the opposite of your silly statement and claim you’re a sheep for ever paying a penny more than MSRP.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by Solo118

If it helps, I saw DavidSW put up a white dial 116500 for $20.9k!

https://davidsw.com/watches/rolex-wa...white-dial-30/

Pre owned. Does that matter for the price at this level?

[Cwillis0001]

Originally Posted by garyk

Pre owned. Does that matter for the price at this level?

Any watch a reseller sells is pre owned, even if they pretend otherwise.

[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by dennywags

You need to change Batman to Batgirl. The Batman has been discontinued.

I suggest a visit to the Rolex website and testing your view on whether the Batman has been discontinued.


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[thomaspp]

So good! 116500 being bought for $15k now. Only a matter of time! Finally


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[Maxy]

Originally Posted by dennywags

You need to change Batman to Batgirl. The Batman has been discontinued.

Most cringe worthy name ever!

[aw9nineteen]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

So good! 116500 being bought for $15k now. Only a matter of time! Finally


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It won’t even get that low. I’d buy one for more, but 50% above MSRP won’t ever happen. I’d buy an AP RO at that price.


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[Cwillis0001]

Originally Posted by Maxy

Most cringe worthy name ever!

Hell, its WAY better than Batman. When I think Batman I think of Adam West in tights. Batgirl, on the other hand, is sexy, stealthy, sleek. I know which I prefer.

[Leewae91]

appreciate the tracker, would like to see how it progresses

[gtnator]

You need to change Batgirl back to Batman. There is no such thing as Batgirl.


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[Jamhot]

I concur.

[Scapegoat]

Thanks for the work Op

[Alo(ha)waii]

From what I've read, I think 2016/17 watches will be at a bargain since the 5 year warranties will be up.

[Cwillis0001]

Originally Posted by gtnator

You need to change Batgirl back to Batman. There is no such thing as Batgirl.


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There is no such thing as either, dude. Nicknames are just that.