What the heck happened to 57xx prices?

[Commonproject]

I used to be a regular here up until last year around November. Back then, 5711 was selling for $25K, and 5712 for $35K. Now it appears that prices have nearly doubled?!?!

I know there were Patek retail price increases but what drove the rest of this?

[HL65]

In November 5711’s were selling in $37K plus range. They haven’t been in $25k range in a long time. Also new US retail price is $29,800 after price increase.

[jrs146]

Many ADs are getting one, maybe 2 of each 5711/2 per year with a waitlist in the double digits. Add in a 20% a price increase and you have a 50k 5711 and a 55k 5712


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[Commonproject]

Originally Posted by jrs146

Many ADs are getting one, maybe 2 of each 5711/2 per year with a waitlist in the double digits. Add in a 20% a price increase and you have a 50k 5711 and a 55k 5712


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But they've been getting 1 or 2 all this time though. Maybe I was thinking a bit earlier in the year but below are couple of links with 5712 in the low 30's in August/May last year. Near 80% increase in less than a year is insane

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=554822
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=530613

[Ichiran]

The rappers are buying all the 5711 for busting down.

[jrs146]

Originally Posted by Commonproject

But they've been getting 1 or 2 all this time though. Maybe I was thinking a bit earlier in the year but below are couple of links with 5712 in the low 30's in August/May last year. Near 80% increase in less than a year is insane



https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=554822

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=530613

I guess the entire high end market is up in general. Rolex, AP, PP stainless models across the board are up. I think production even on the nautilus is at an all time low. And MSRP was raised by 20%. Or maybe I’m just trying to justify my own recent purchase, even though it was at MSRP.


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[soundserious]

To paraphrase: let them rock annual calendar chronographs!

[watchtabs]

Yes its ridiculous.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Commonproject

I used to be a regular here up until last year around November. Back then, 5711 was selling for $25K, and 5712 for $35K. Now it appears that prices have nearly doubled?!?!

I know there were Patek retail price increases but what drove the rest of this?

Patek's attempt to close the secondary price gap I suppose. If people were spending 30k+ for a 5711 then they might as well charge 30K retail.
... now they know people will pay 50k

[AK797]

It got Daytona-ed.

[scarlet knight]

I am avoiding buying watches that are part of a feeding frenzy. One recession away from a fire sale (2020?). Sorry to be negative.

[Superburrito]

I chatted with 2 local dealers and they both refused to even take orders for any Nautilus. Ridiculous. The answer is simply "No." No waitlists, no deposits, just no. And at one of the dealers I have purchased 2 PPs and a Rolex already.

[Bearxj86]

Ultimately the 5711 is such an iconic watch and not only collectors love it but celebrities love it. From Aurel Bacs to NBA players to rappers icing them (and reducing the number with the original look). None of these folks are that price sensitive so while a recession might cause the prices to drop a bit, long-term I do not see these prices dropping below $40k; that is just me. It's actually getting harder and not easier to get.

You add to that the Patek brand name; and the fact that it is probably the most versatile watch in existence (Dressier than a sub, and sporty enough for casual wear), I am not sure this will change. God forbid it gets discontinued and another model comes in too.

[ufboy73]

I know most of the posters on the forum are longer-term PP owners...

But I am new to the brand and the Nautilus (not even necessarily 5711 but possibly 5712 or 5990) is a logical/appealing place for me to start...

Not even being able put a deposit down or be waitlisted (even for delivery years from now) makes it incredibly challenging to get a NIB Nautilus9Lets leave pre-owned out of this, for now)...

What would folks here suggest - determine if willing to pay the market premium and suck it up and go trusted seller route?

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by ufboy73

I know most of the posters on the forum are longer-term PP owners...

But I am new to the brand and the Nautilus (not even necessarily 5711 but possibly 5712 or 5990) is a logical/appealing place for me to start...

Not even being able put a deposit down or be waitlisted (even for delivery years from now) makes it incredibly challenging to get a NIB Nautilus9Lets leave pre-owned out of this, for now)...

What would folks here suggest - determine if willing to pay the market premium and suck it up and go trusted seller route?

its one of those 3 the only watch you want? If not it may be as simple as organizing your wish list in a way that gets you watches you want and allows you access to others later. Its really the only AD solution.

[Sam Philip]

Originally Posted by ufboy73

I know most of the posters on the forum are longer-term PP owners...

But I am new to the brand and the Nautilus (not even necessarily 5711 but possibly 5712 or 5990) is a logical/appealing place for me to start...

Not even being able put a deposit down or be waitlisted (even for delivery years from now) makes it incredibly challenging to get a NIB Nautilus9Lets leave pre-owned out of this, for now)...

What would folks here suggest - determine if willing to pay the market premium and suck it up and go trusted seller route?

Out of the 3 models you mentioned 5990 will be the easiest to get. It currently retails above MSRP in the grey market but the premium is not very high compared to the other two so unlikely it attracts people looking for a quick profit.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Sam Philip

Out of the 3 models you mentioned 5990 will be the easiest to get. It currently retails above MSRP in the grey market but the premium is not very high compared to the other two so unlikely it attracts people looking for a quick profit.

yeah, and because of the price its harder to move anyway on the secondary market. Thats the easiest to get i think too however its highly dependent on the AD/location as they are not getting very many. The salon says like 5 years of a wait.

[ufboy73]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

its one of those 3 the only watch you want? If not it may be as simple as organizing your wish list in a way that gets you watches you want and allows you access to others later. Its really the only AD solution.

Well, i own some other watches that currently still please me - so, these in particular are appealing to me from a collection standpoint.

I am curious though, were you asking about interest in other (PP?) pieces because:

- purchasing other pieces would, among other things, foster an AD relation that may get me higher on a pecking order (relative to so many other buyers I imagine I would not really be able to compete on this basis)

OR

- build out/focus on other aspects of the collection in the hopes that availability of these particular pieces changes in the future?

Originally Posted by Sam Philip

Out of the 3 models you mentioned 5990 will be the easiest to get. It currently retails above MSRP in the grey market but the premium is not very high compared to the other two so unlikely it attracts people looking for a quick profit.

Yes, i realize the unobtanium basically follows 5711>5712>5990...but my initial inquiries suggest that even the 5990 is not doable from
The AD’s i have tried (ie they will not even take names or deposits)...

you are right that the premium on the 5990 on the secondary market seems much lower than the 5711/5712, so not quite as bitter a pill to swallow if i have to go the secondary route.

One of the troubling things for me going thru a reseller is im just not building any equity with a dealer...and so will be in the same position years from no (ie no access to PP desirable pieces at reasonable retail prices from a dealer)...to my point above, however, maybe that is delusional because in the AD grand scheme of things perhaps my buying a PP piece here and there still wont result in any meaningful equity compared to others that have bought many more and want those same future desriable pieces i might.

[jrs146]

Originally Posted by ufboy73

Well, i own some other watches that currently still please me - so, these in particular are appealing to me from a collection standpoint.

I am curious though, were you asking about interest in other (PP?) pieces because:

- purchasing other pieces would, among other things, foster an AD relation that may get me higher on a pecking order (relative to so many other buyers I imagine I would not really be able to compete on this basis)

OR

- build out/focus on other aspects of the collection in the hopes that availability of these particular pieces changes in the future?



Yes, i realize the unobtanium basically follows 5711>5712>5990...but my initial inquiries suggest that even the 5990 is not doable from
The AD’s i have tried (ie they will not even take names or deposits)...

you are right that the premium on the 5990 on the secondary market seems much lower than the 5711/5712, so not quite as bitter a pill to swallow if i have to go the secondary route.

One of the troubling things for me going thru a reseller is im just not building any equity with a dealer...and so will be in the same position years from no (ie no access to PP desirable pieces at reasonable retail prices from a dealer)...to my point above, however, maybe that is delusional because in the AD grand scheme of things perhaps my buying a PP piece here and there still wont result in any meaningful equity compared to others that have bought many more and want those same future desriable pieces i might.

You would be surprised at much AD's value local relationships these days. Although their list might be miles long, a large part of the list will be out of town people. I didn't have a strong relationship with my Patek AD but I quickly built it by building a local relationship. Low and behold I was able to bypass a LOT of people ahead of me on the list for very popular models. Although spending money is important, it's not just about the dollars!

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by ufboy73

Well, i own some other watches that currently still please me - so, these in particular are appealing to me from a collection standpoint.

I am curious though, were you asking about interest in other (PP?) pieces because:

- purchasing other pieces would, among other things, foster an AD relation that may get me higher on a pecking order (relative to so many other buyers I imagine I would not really be able to compete on this basis)

OR

- build out/focus on other aspects of the collection in the hopes that availability of these particular pieces changes in the future?
.

Both.
A. I don't think the situation is sustainable so availability might change anyway in the future so I would not try to plan too much around whats going on right now
B. Yeah, other PP pieces. For example if your plan was to add a 5164 anyway in the future i would get that first. Its easier to get and also the aquanaut chronograph is the one everyone is trying to get this year so i think its going to make the 64 easier to obtain. Then you have some additional purchase history which will help. It only works if you were going to get that watch anyway. Just an example.

[ufboy73]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

Both.
A. I don't think the situation is sustainable so availability might change anyway in the future so I would not try to plan too much around whats going on right now
B. Yeah, other PP pieces. For example if your plan was to add a 5164 anyway in the future i would get that first. Its easier to get and also the aquanaut chronograph is the one everyone is trying to get this year so i think its going to make the 64 easier to obtain. Then you have some additional purchase history which will help. It only works if you were going to get that watch anyway. Just an example.

Thanks for further clarification of thoughts...

I am pretty partial to Nautilus (at least without major step-up in price to something like a 5070, which i am not quite ready to do) but the 5164 is actually probably the only aquanaut piece that has interested me from time to time...i dont think i want it ‘enough, tho

[ufboy73]

Originally Posted by jrs146

You would be surprised at much AD's value local relationships these days. Although their list might be miles long, a large part of the list will be out of town people. I didn't have a strong relationship with my Patek AD but I quickly built it by building a local relationship. Low and behold I was able to bypass a LOT of people ahead of me on the list for very popular models. Although spending money is important, it's not just about the dollars!

Good point - and when visiting a local AD last year was a point they made...of course the individual I had spent several hours and a few visits with since departed the AD and changed careers

[rw2008]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

I am avoiding buying watches that are part of a feeding frenzy. One recession away from a fire sale (2020?). Sorry to be negative.

I'd like to hear people who have been there before comment on this.

Forgive me if I'm being naive, but I thought the prevailing sentiment was that the best way to safeguard against this was to:
a) never buy over retail
b) stick to Patek and Rolex

Furthermore, I'd love people to comment on a few assumptions I hear people usually making:

1. The Patek market in general is more insulated against macro ebbs and flows, therefore your money is safer than say it would be in a baseline SS Rolex Sub/GMT. etc.
2. Related to above, given the assumed insulation, a "firesale" of Pateks is way less likely than a "firesale" of pretty much any other brand or model.

If the poster is saying that he's staying away from "feeding frenzy" watches because he doesn't like paying a premium, I totally agree. I guess you could say that the new 5711/12 retail price has priced in some of that "feeding frenzy" and that those prices aren't really at equilibrium. However, it seems like paying retail for DaytonaC's and 5711/5712s is about as safe as you could possibly get in the watch market, even if a large recession were to come about.

Interested to hear people's thoughts on this.

[Sam Philip]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

yeah, and because of the price its harder to move anyway on the secondary market. Thats the easiest to get i think too however its highly dependent on the AD/location as they are not getting very many. The salon says like 5 years of a wait.

Recently Blowers had one listed for £47000 and it was sold within few weeks.

[rw2008]

I'd be interested to see 2009 retail and secondary market price data for the following watches:

SS Speedmaster
SS Datejust
SS Sub
SS Daytona
SS Royal Oak
SS 5711

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by rw2008

I'd like to hear people who have been there before comment on this.

Forgive me if I'm being naive, but I thought the prevailing sentiment was that the best way to safeguard against this was to:
a) never buy over retail
b) stick to Patek and Rolex

Furthermore, I'd love people to comment on a few assumptions I hear people usually making:

1. The Patek market in general is more insulated against macro ebbs and flows, therefore your money is safer than say it would be in a baseline SS Rolex Sub/GMT. etc.
2. Related to above, given the assumed insulation, a "firesale" of Pateks is way less likely than a "firesale" of pretty much any other brand or model.

If the poster is saying that he's staying away from "feeding frenzy" watches because he doesn't like paying a premium, I totally agree. I guess you could say that the new 5711/12 retail price has priced in some of that "feeding frenzy" and that those prices aren't really at equilibrium. However, it seems like paying retail for DaytonaC's and 5711/5712s is about as safe as you could possibly get in the watch market, even if a large recession were to come about.

Interested to hear people's thoughts on this.

I don’t agree that SS Patek is more insulated than SS Rolex professional subs/GMT/Daytona. Marketing is king and Patek will never have the brand Rolex does nor are they trying.

Safest watch to buy today that’s easy for average joe to obtain, imho is an SS sub date at retail.

[ufboy73]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I don’t agree that SS Patek is more insulated than SS Rolex professional subs/GMT/Daytona. Marketing is king and Patek will never have the brand Rolex does nor are they trying.

Safest watch to buy today that’s easy for average joe to obtain, imho is an SS sub date at retail.

Plus, given price points, there is more of a market for rolex SS sport pieces.

[Oryx]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I don’t agree that SS Patek is more insulated than SS Rolex professional subs/GMT/Daytona. Marketing is king and Patek will never have the brand Rolex does nor are they trying.

Safest watch to buy today that’s easy for average joe to obtain, imho is an SS sub date at retail.

I would disagree with this one - I think by virtue of the fact that Patek have limited scope / interest in increasing production of SS sports models this does insulate prices more than SS Rolex professional models.

They arent competing with Rolex but I do think the strength of the brand is in someways as strong if not stronger than Rolex

Rolex is still the most attainable due to the price point and general brand recognition

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I don’t agree that SS Patek is more insulated than SS Rolex professional subs/GMT/Daytona. Marketing is king and Patek will never have the brand Rolex does nor are they trying.

Safest watch to buy today that’s easy for average joe to obtain, imho is an SS sub date at retail.

over retail premiums i agree with you. Based on having customers who buy watches in all market conditions i think Patek has the advantage. Patek's target customer/traditional customer has generational wealth or is high enough on the ladder to not be affected in economic down turns the same way other demographic groups are. They use economic downturns to make money where as other people are losing their house.

Obviously not all, but its a different crowd than the typical rolex buyer. I feel out of place sometimes with Patek, not so with Rolex.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Sam Philip

Recently Blowers had one listed for £47000 and it was sold within few weeks.

WF recently refused to buy one, apparently. I think they are having cash flow issues though.