How likely is a price retreat?

[m j b]

Rolex prices were going up before the pandemic, but the past two years have just been nutty.

So yes, prices will drop, eventually, from these stratospheric levels.

Remember, you read it here first.

[1665fan]

Next economic crash rolex will go down or quit going up………same answer for last 30 years….in 2008 it slowed down….now it’s crazy…..this should be a sticky

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Next economic crash rolex will go down or quit going up………same answer for last 30 years….in 2008 it slowed down….now it’s crazy…..this should be a sticky

Agreed. Like any tangible non-essential item, economic downturns will decrease demand (thus prices). Unfortunately, the next one is peaking around the corner.

[TswaneNguni]

It cannot come down .Not anymore .

Interest drives the market pricing .
Affluence drives the interest .
Social media corrupts the balance and drives it to a level of insanity.

Restoration of balance may only be a decrease in the rate of increase in pricing.

I own quite a few watches .
Current market pricing is making me nauseous.
It forces you to see them as caches of cash ..and it destroys the fun of wearing the watch .

[101031-28]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

I own quite a few watches .
Current market pricing is making me nauseous.
It forces you to see them as caches of cash ..and it destroys the fun of wearing the watch .

+1

[fsprow]

If I could forecast economic events I'd be sitting on my own island in a tropical paradise being served a drink by a beautiful lady.

Prices will be up, down, or unchanged I bet. Personally I wish references to price would be banned from this forum.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

I have been a Rolex owner for over twenty years and a student of all things Rolex for about six. For all of the time the universal truth has been to buy it now. If you wait the price will go up.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by Kevin of Larchmont

I have been a Rolex owner for over twenty years and a student of all things Rolex for about six. For all of the time the universal truth has been to buy it now. If you wait the price will go up.

Same here,over 20 years .You are absolutely right .

[brandrea]

Welcome to the forum

[Wing No]

I've only been reading this forum for a few weeks and in that time some models have gone up 10 or 20 thousand dollars.
Maybe prices will drop on Ferraris and they'll go back to the days when you can get a new one for $70,000...

[Henrimontgomery]

Prices will retreat… in higher horizons.

[johnwigan]

Originally Posted by ChiefTingle

I'm not a real serious collector but I did buy a preowned SubC some years ago. I came back to see what watches were available about 2 years ago and the Sub I have was being offered for almost twice what I paid for it. I even checked at a local AD to see what they would offer for it in trade and was quite surprised. I look now at the D-Blue DSSD and just watch as the price continues to climb. Is there any chance of the price of these and some of the other sought after watches to retreat from the values they are being sold at these days.

I want a DSSD!!!! Daytona's are out of range for me.

Yes, prices can and will fall. Availability will return to normal in Rolex ADs. We have had a worldwide COVID pandemic for the last couple of years and vast government fiscal stimulus. This is not normal. There are shortages and price increases for many products, not just Rolexes.

Many here are emotionally invested in the bubble. The delusion seems to be reaching new heights. 'Grey prices cannot fall, impossible...' -completely nuts. 'Rolex cannot increase production, impossible...' -crazy. 'This bubble is different, ignore history...' -bonkers. 'What happened the last couple of years will happen forever and never change, ignore history...' - the delusions on here are getting more frenzied and crazy.

As we come out of COVID expect things to get a lot a better. You'll be able to buy a DSSD at an AD for the retail price. Not sure exactly when this will happen but it is coming. Don't get caught up in bubble frenzy.

[johnwigan]

Originally Posted by inadeje

A retreat is extremely unlikely, but not because a bunch of opinions on an anonymous forum ratified that reality. Rather, what we have here are a series of factors at play:

1. After 117 years Rolex has, during the past 12-18 months, crossed over into a globally recognized ultra desirable product. The market forces that have caused this require a profound analysis, but rest assured the signs have been evident for some time.

2. Rolex supply is unable to quench the aforementioned thirst, which is causing this secondary market phenomenon.

3. Rolex WILL NOT and CANNOT upscale production to meet the above market demands for supply.

Based upon those three factors alone (there are more but it’s complicated) Rolex secondary market prices will continue to climb, and climb high. Undesirable variants will become mysteriously desirable. Vintage and NEOVintage will also rise as the thirst cannot be quenched by contemporary model availability. Basically, any authentic Rolex watch will experience a huge following, much higher than real-world available watches.

Look at it this way. Lets go back to just 1990, which is 31 years ago. Lets then assume, broad brush, that Rolex manufactured 1 million watches each year (it’s just an amount to formulate an example). That’s hypothetically 31 million watches over that timeframe (minus, fire damaged, irreparably damaged, lost, at the bottom of the sea, etc). Now factor in the world’s new found love affair with the brand. Add the burgeoning Chinese, Indian, LATAM etc. nouveau rich, who now all want their capitalist wrist trophy. It’s all these factors that everyone is overlooking. 31 million watches is NOTHING, it isn’t even going to scratch the surface of this huge demand. Look at a map of worldwide populations if in doubt. Therefore, what will happen? And, you don’t need a degree in economics to answer that…

Simple- Prices will rise, as they have been. They won’t retreat. This isn’t going to revert back to “how it was”, because it can’t. The genie is out of the bottle and it isn’t ever going back in. Why do you all think Tudor was reincarnated? This whole phenomenon isn’t new and Rolex more than anyone on this forum knew and know it. And they’ve been subtly telling us, but few took note. Closing ADs, suspending resellers, separate store fronts, recently raising prices by the most % in three decades, shipping display pieces. They know, and the secondary market is telling us all this through stratospheric Rolex prices, but people are still in disbelief. Hence these constant threads.

You got the fever bad. Up up and away.

[Jojomojo]

Highly unlikely at this point. The fact that they're shutting down some smaller ADs should tell you all about it.

[Fritzli]

I fear the 126660 James Cameron will be loved in a few weeks from now much more than ever before....!

[casadecamporolex]

Been an avid Rolex owner nearly 50 years.
Have had a home in a very wealthy community in the Dominican Republic over 30 years.
5 years ago, none of the folks here wore Rolex.
At a recent party I attended, 80% of the men wore coveted, scarcely allocated references.
That change, if global, is why prices are what they are.
These are men who will pay any price for the status.
It will only become more worldwide.

[Parapraxis]

1% chance

[moting]

Also now wealthy collectors don't want one or two Rolex but all of them, like catching pokemons :)

[YGRLX]

Originally Posted by moting

Also now wealthy collectors don't want one or two Rolex but all of them, like catching pokemons :)

This - I have no problem accumulating whatever they will sell me..

[Epanerai12]

Been around a while. The only thing I can see sparking something to the downside is grey market becoming so bloated with inventory that they begin slowing down. First it starts with them not buying as much or offering lower quotes. This grinds the intra dealer trading first. But that will be slow and almost unnoticeable as it will find price support all the way down.


Generally, it would start with harder to move, lower demand models first (DJ 36, YM, SD43, TT stuff, Full PM)) if it did happen. You'd see wider spreads on unworn vs worn copies too. That would hit small greys harder than big ones initially; some would fold their tents. Could be exacerbated if the greys also stop buying and the individual, casual profiteer finds out they cant liquate for profit as quikcly or cleanly as they used to could make a small dent. Short of a fire sale from a couple of large greys, I don't see any imminent trigger to the downside in any large way, outside of a 2008/2009 type credit event.

All bull markets run out of steam eventually but that doesn't mean it has to have a crash landing.

[TheWatchmen]

Is it possible to just make all “value” threads it’s own sub forum?

The only thing more annoying than these speculation threads is people posting in them how much they bought a watch for and when.

It’s getting old, and no one cares how much you paid. It’s a sad attempt at making others think you are somehow special.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by ChiefTingle

Daytona's are out of range for me.

So,everybody thought two years ago ..HUGE mistake .

[TswaneNguni]

Price retreat ....
Flattening of the upward trend ..sure
Drop in prices ...forget it .

The hordes with no actual interest in horology ,smelled money ..and there we go !! Pure commodity

There are a few daily wearer old school's left .Like myself .Wearing a 116610LN today .One of the workhorses in my collection.

[JSolution]

Originally Posted by TheWatchmen

Is it possible to just make all “value” threads it’s own sub forum?

The only thing more annoying than these speculation threads is people posting in them how much they bought a watch for and when.

It’s getting old, and no one cares how much you paid. It’s a sad attempt at making others think you are somehow special.

I don’t see why this doesn’t happen to be honest everybody would be happy :)

[Bmats]

Speculation is of course always interesting, but of course no one can predict. Does it seem likely that the price on certain stainless steel models will continue to always rise at the same rate? That seems unlikely. Does it seem likely that you’ll get that SS Daytona in a year or two at an AD at MSRP? That also seems unlikely. Does it seem likely that a few years from now you’ll see ADs populated with actual “less” desirable models you can buy, including some SS date justs? That seems likely to me.

I think the short of it is that if you want the BLRO or SS Daytona at MSRP, it’s going to be difficult for awhile. If you want a date just, it’s probably going to get better. And if we all see fire sales of Rolex models on the secondary market, that probably means lots of us have far worse things to worry about than what we’re putting on our wrists every morning.

[Satykush]

Originally Posted by Epanerai12

Been around a while. The only thing I can see sparking something to the downside is grey market becoming so bloated with inventory that they begin slowing down. First it starts with them not buying as much or offering lower quotes. This grinds the intra dealer trading first. But that will be slow and almost unnoticeable as it will find price support all the way down.


Generally, it would start with harder to move, lower demand models first (DJ 36, YM, SD43, TT stuff, Full PM)) if it did happen. You'd see wider spreads on unworn vs worn copies too. That would hit small greys harder than big ones initially; some would fold their tents. Could be exacerbated if the greys also stop buying and the individual, casual profiteer finds out they cant liquate for profit as quikcly or cleanly as they used to could make a small dent. Short of a fire sale from a couple of large greys, I don't see any imminent trigger to the downside in any large way, outside of a 2008/2009 type credit event.

All bull markets run out of steam eventually but that doesn't mean it has to have a crash landing.

Like the process you have outlined. Just some thoughts:

1. Demand continues to outstrip supply from new and pre owned Rolex’s by a huge margin - prices will stay firm or rise further

2. Demand moderates a little and supply of new and pre owned catches up - prices will start to consolidate and curve flattens

3. Demand and supply start to mix and match - prices flatten and dip a little, grey market inventory goes down in value, margin calls, etc and some amount of ‘fire sale’ starts with large ones

4. Prices are now firmed, not rising. One model still sell at huge premium - Daytona but that also for the collectible ones. Sanity returns and now people are not using AD purchases to only flip, they are now keeping the watches

5. The ‘deflation’ has happened and slowly the retail prices will catch up with the ‘new normal’ - prices will continue to be 1.5-2.0 times current retail.

The whole process might take 4-5 years, economic realities - interest rates, inflation, asset bubbles all will add to these.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[maizerage25]

Maybe a market crash? This 10% correction didn't do much, so it would have to be pretty big something like >50%?

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by maizerage25

Maybe a market crash? This 10% correction didn't do much, so it would have to be pretty big something like >50%?

Not really .Lots of money in the world for 810,000 Rolex per year (2020)

[alphadweller]

Price will only retreat the day investors quit buying Rolex as another asset class in their portfolio. Problem is grey dealers are artificially keeping prices high by passing the hot watches between one another. Also, they get allocations from ADs for being top clients. The average customer is taken for a ride.

My suggestion is we should all quit buying those models from grey dealers for some time, until they can no longer afford to keep them in stock and must liquidate.

[AK797]

In truth I always thought the global demand and hence the supply of Rolexes was on the low side considering they were not that expensive at £4/5K for the SS models, and also that apart from cars this was a leading wealth or success signifier or reward, but the world seemed quite closed off to luxury watches or felt they were just too extravagant as an idea in general - well the last few years has exploded watches onto the gen pop, both as an affordable luxury and as an asset class, and so I doubt things will go back to before, there has been a new realignment of demand and accessibility with Rolexes and Pateks and APs etc.

We should mostly be just glad alot of us got in on horology and the watch game when it was largely unheralded and undervalued.