Grey market pricing, I am confused

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by 77T

Agree with market absurdity, in general term that is.

But…
If one element was changed in the used car market then it would operate like the secondary luxury watch market for Rolex, AP, PP, RM pieces.

That element is constrained production per annum.

Porsche GT3/RS, Ferrari 296, and others in that category routinely sell above MSRP due to their scarcity.


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This has been the situation for about 30+ years.

[Gaussian]

Originally Posted by 77T

Agree with market absurdity, in general term that is.

But…
If one element was changed in the used car market then it would operate like the secondary luxury watch market for Rolex, AP, PP, RM pieces.

That element is constrained production per annum.

Porsche GT3/RS, Ferrari 296, and others in that category routinely sell above MSRP due to their scarcity.


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We’re talking about watches that are made by the millions, not limited production vehicles that might be one of a few thousands or even hundreds or fewer.

Not an apples-to-apples comparison.

I personally would never pay above sticker for anything that is currently in production and made by the millions just because there is a temporary anomaly with the world economy.

Each to their own though.


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[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by Gaussian

We’re talking about watches that are made by the millions, not limited production vehicles that might be one of a few thousands or even hundreds or fewer.

Not an apples-to-apples comparison.

I personally would never pay above sticker for anything that is currently in production and made by the millions just because there is a temporary anomaly with the world economy.

Each to their own though.


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Desirable (well above msrp) Rolexes are not produced in the millions annually. Hundred thousand, sure.

Price points at msrp are 1/20th those cars. They are often produced in the thousands.

The pool of buyers who can afford to buy and maintain these watches at msrp is massively bigger than for those cars.

So absolutely comparable.

[6161HH]

Originally Posted by Gaussian

I personally would never pay above sticker for anything that is currently in production and made by the millions just because there is a temporary anomaly with the world economy.

This ^^^^^^^^. The above statement has always been my modus operandi even during the crazed pricing in 2020. Better to go without and wait for eventual return to normalcy.

[bradford87]

Originally Posted by 6161HH

This ^^^^^^^^. The above statement has always been my modus operandi even during the crazed pricing in 2020. Better to go without and wait for eventual return to normalcy.

This seems like a good thread to rant in:

At my local AD on the weekend, they had the Explorer 40 as a display, so I took the opportunity to try it on. The associate asked if I would like to put my name down on the "list". Which is nothing more than a random sheet of paper that I'm sure goes straight to the bin.

I made the comment that they have taken my name multiple (easily a dozen) times over the last 4 year, first for an Explorer 39, then when discontinued an OP Black, and the day it was announced an Explorer 40. At this point it is frustrating. I do have a small purchase history with them, buying my Black Bay Blue from them at a time when they were also trying to push me to a Sub at a 20% discount.

Leaving the store, I had a shift in my mindset. I had always wanted my name on the warranty card, but now I'm waiting for the day that the grey market gets within 0-5% of retail. Given their practices, I'm sure this will result in 90% of their customer base disappearing overnight. When it does, I'll be supporting grey (or at least a different AD) and taking joy in seeing their business deteriorate to the point that they deservedly lose the Rolex line.

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by Gaussian

We’re talking about watches that are made by the millions, not limited production vehicles that might be one of a few thousands or even hundreds or fewer.

Not an apples-to-apples comparison.

I personally would never pay above sticker for anything that is currently in production and made by the millions just because there is a temporary anomaly with the world economy.

Each to their own though.


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You’re right! You can get a Daytona free with a bowl of soup at several restaurants! It’s like a nice piece of day old bread!

[skipstar]

Originally Posted by Gaussian

Imagine if the used car market functioned like this used rolex market.

How many of us would willingly pay above new MSRP for a used car?

It all seems absurd even if we were trying to normalize it all. . .


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Check out prices on a used 2023 Range Rover Sport, 15-20K above MSRP in the Boston area, absolutely insane.

[carwashchris]

It's kinda bitter sweet, if your a buyer it's easier to find the watch you want at a more reasonable price. If your a owner, the value of your collection is sinking.

My 2 cents. Chris

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[garyk]

Originally Posted by carwashchris

If your a owner, the value of your collection is sinking.

My 2 cents. Chris

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Thank goodness. I have been waiting for the day I don't have to be perceived as a flipper by ADs. I don't care what the values are, I wear my watches and dont sell or trade them...So stupid for far too long...

[Rolexken]

Trend of what you would be offered by a grey for a watch is the true state of the market.

[Podmornica]

The secondary grey watch market is dead in the backyard pool floating face down! "Juan"

Not just that the prices collapsed - but hardly anyone is buying anything. Try selling your brand new 126711CHNR Rootbear: There's no grey dealer in the world that would pay you above the MSRP so you can flip it like back in 2021. Have the Daydate or a plain datejust? Good luck unloading that.

Dealers are full with stock bought at the peak of the market. Most are overleveraged and are hoping for market to bounce. It won't.

The 2020 is long gone. Rates are high, there's no helicopter money. People are spending their cash on vacations again. We will never see that hype in our lifetime again.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

The secondary grey watch market is dead in the backyard pool floating face down! "Juan"

Not just that the prices collapsed - but hardly anyone is buying anything. Try selling your brand new 126711CHNR Rootbear: There's no grey dealer in the world that would pay you above the MSRP so you can flip it like back in 2021. Have the Daydate or a plain datejust? Good luck unloading that.

Dealers are full with stock bought at the peak of the market. Most are overleveraged and are hoping for market to bounce. It won't.

The 2020 is long gone. Rates are high, there's no helicopter money. People are spending their cash on vacations again. We will never see that hype in our lifetime again.

That's interesting. What you describe is somewhat like the current housing market. Mortgages are at 8%, which should be killing demand and lowering prices, but because people with 3% mortgages aren't budging, inventory remains extremely low which is putting a floor under the market.

During the great recession we got some tremendous deals when people liquidated their collections to raise cash, but if the grey dealers are well stocked with watches that they have overpaid for, they won't be buyers. It may be nearly impossible to raise cash with a watch sell if it comes down to it, and that excess and high priced inventory may put a floor on prices. Bummer. I want recessionary pricing!

[Nico81]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

The secondary grey watch market is dead in the backyard pool floating face down! "Juan"

Not just that the prices collapsed - but hardly anyone is buying anything. Try selling your brand new 126711CHNR Rootbear: There's no grey dealer in the world that would pay you above the MSRP so you can flip it like back in 2021. Have the Daydate or a plain datejust? Good luck unloading that.

Dealers are full with stock bought at the peak of the market. Most are overleveraged and are hoping for market to bounce. It won't.

The 2020 is long gone. Rates are high, there's no helicopter money. People are spending their cash on vacations again. We will never see that hype in our lifetime again.

Hey Submarine
Good point.. party is over.
I remember selling chnr 2t for $29k
Lol it was laughable… i felt bad for flipping it … for like 13 minutes then i was over it
Sild it mainly bc rose gold looked awful on me


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[rushca01]

I have made offers on several watches in the past month, been trying to source a 116710 BLNR and 116610. Trusted dealers WOULD NOT budge and my offer was very reasonable. Offers were also made to private parties and again my offer was fair, were talking a couple 100 off asking price and they wound’s budge. Oh well.

[77T]

Originally Posted by rushca01

I have made offers on several watches in the past month, been trying to source a 116710 BLNR and 116610. Trusted dealers WOULD NOT budge and my offer was very reasonable. Offers were also made to private parties and again my offer was fair, were talking a couple 100 off asking price and they wound’s budge. Oh well.

For a $200 delta you chose not to buy?

Even if they had accepted that small delta, you’d still be paying well over msrp - my logic is swallow the $200 since you are already more than $2K above msrp anyway.
Just my


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[rushca01]

Originally Posted by 77T

For a $200 delta you chose not to buy?

Even if they had accepted that small delta, you’d still be paying well over msrp - my logic is swallow the $200 since you are already more than $2K above msrp anyway.
Just my


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Yeah, I guess it’s the principle. On the flip side, the seller also lost the sell (and is still bumping the same watch) over a small difference. At the end of the day I don’t need it so I’m willing to walk away.

[77T]

Originally Posted by rushca01

Yeah, I guess it’s the principle. On the flip side, the seller also lost the sell (and is still bumping the same watch) over a small difference. At the end of the day I don’t need it so I’m willing to walk away.

That is the best path if it wasn’t a grail for you.

While we talk about overpaying for a Rolex (or any other brand for that matter) there are so many other things in life for which we overpay. I’d posit that each one of us spend more than necessary for convenience - perhaps as much as a new Rolex in sum each year.


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[Calatrava r]

I have noticed many of the smaller used watch firms work on much thinner margins and have much better pricing than the bigger well known used watch companies. People are still going to buy watches and sell them to get something else as long as interest in the hobby remains. The prices may just be a little different with even discounts from ADs returning. The market is dynamic, and prices will fluctuate. As with anything, it is never a good idea to chase the highflyers while they are soaring.

[GoingPlaces]

Overhead and not to mention larger grey dealers set the market early. They probably feel if they start cutting it's a market mover. The larger grey's will be the last ones to adjust.

[Mystro]

What is there to understand? There isn’t any watches in the AD display cases to buy. You’re also never getting a SS Daytona from a AD regardless what the economy or watch market is currently trending.

[Cwillis0001]

Originally Posted by Mystro

You’re also never getting a SS Daytona from a AD regardless what the economy or watch market is currently trending.

Huh? People get SS Daytonas from ADs every single day. Where else would all the used ones come from?

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Cwillis0001

Huh? People get SS Daytonas from ADs every single day. Where else would all the used ones come from?

People win the lottery every day but I don’t build my retirement income on the idea of winning.

[Cwillis0001]

Originally Posted by Mystro

People win the lottery every day but I don’t build my retirement income on the idea of winning.

Yeah me neither. If anyone is conflating Daytona availability with retirement income or the Mega Millions draw , I'm not sure what to say.

[Nads786]

When I was at DavidSW in person, a customer was negotiating for a John Mayer Daytona and I heard the sales associate say, "sorry we can't go below $38K it's a buyers market right now."

[FlashinLeather]

Originally Posted by Nads786

When I was at DavidSW in person, a customer was negotiating for a John Mayer Daytona and I heard the sales associate say, "sorry we can't go below $38K it's a buyers market right now."

So you are telling me that you bought it for 38k right?

[Nads786]

Originally Posted by FlashinLeather

So you are telling me that you bought it for 38k right?

Ha - I was looking at a five digit Sub and a 39 explorer as I overheard. DavidSW is an awesome place to check out retired models. I'm still thinking about that five digit sub. The 39 matte explorer not so much.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by FlashinLeather

So you are telling me that you bought it for 38k right?

No kidding. I'll buy two for $76k if anyone has them.

[Rollei35]

Originally Posted by Nads786

When I was at DavidSW in person, a customer was negotiating for a John Mayer Daytona and I heard the sales associate say, "sorry we can't go below $38K it's a buyers market right now."

Does this sales associate even understand the term of "buyers market"?
My understanding is that when supply is greater than demand it's buyers market. Buyers have more choice and negotiating power.

[ap1]

Originally Posted by Rollei35

Does this sales associate even understand the term of "buyers market"?
My understanding is that when supply is greater than demand it's buyers market. Buyers have more choice and negotiating power.

And also, a John Mayer yg green for 38 I was confused all around

[Benzsiam]

Originally Posted by Nads786

When I was at DavidSW in person, a customer was negotiating for a John Mayer Daytona and I heard the sales associate say, "sorry we can't go below $38K it's a buyers market right now."

Are you talking about YG Daytona with Green dial for $38k?????? It would be very hard to believe.

The market price right now is about $68k not $38k.