seriously... the 15202 selling above $100K new now!!!

[dh1]

Originally Posted by 911AP

I'll keep saying it......it's all hype. When the hype dies the market will correct. Until then who knows how high it'll go. Everyone is going to ride the wave till the hype dies.

Perhaps influencer / fashion trends will move on to some other type of watch or besides "blue dial / sports watch / no complication" and that will move the hype?

I wasn't following the watch world, but I recall Roman saying that the ROO was way hotter than the traditional RO 15 years ago.

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by dh1

Perhaps influencer / fashion trends will move on to some other type of watch or besides "blue dial / sports watch / no complication" and that will move the hype?

I wasn't following the watch world, but I recall Roman saying that the ROO was way hotter than the traditional RO 15 years ago.

Very true. I respect Roman Sharf. I would say that it’s not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. I do think the “Genta” 15202ST carries with it a much higher floor given its lineage and history.

[shkure]

There is a simple solution to the RO and Nautilus shortages: Just buy a Czapek Antarctique or one of the Moser Streamliners. They are way much rarer and at this point, amazing value.

Not sure if they will satisfy your Instagram friends though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dauster]

Originally Posted by shkure

There is a simple solution to the RO and Nautilus shortages: Just buy a Czapek Antarctique or one of the Moser Streamliners. They are way much rarer and at this point, amazing value.

Not sure if they will satisfy your Instagram friends though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Streamliner is one year wait when I asked my local AD. While I love the dial (green in this case) and tried one on from the rep it just doesn’t feel like a 20k watch. Finishing and look make it look kinda cheap. Czapek to. I want to like them but I just can’t justify the price point. FP journe on the other hand is incredible. Hype is one thing but I feel especially for PP and AP there is a reason they are so popular- just incredible watches.

[texasmade]

Originally Posted by shkure

There is a simple solution to the RO and Nautilus shortages: Just buy a Czapek Antarctique or one of the Moser Streamliners. They are way much rarer and at this point, amazing value.

Not sure if they will satisfy your Instagram friends though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That new green dial Czapek is nuts. It's too bad it's only limited to 10 items but it's truly unique and rare.

[shkure]

Originally Posted by dauster

Streamliner is one year wait when I asked my local AD. While I love the dial (green in this case) and tried one on from the rep it just doesn’t feel like a 20k watch. Finishing and look make it look kinda cheap. Czapek to. I want to like them but I just can’t justify the price point. FP journe on the other hand is incredible. Hype is one thing but I feel especially for PP and AP there is a reason they are so popular- just incredible watches.

While i have no first hand experience with Moser, i have to disagree with your take on Czapek . I have both the RO 15500 and the Czapek Antarctique. Looks are subjective but the Antarctique is at least on par with the RO in terms of finishing and arguably better movement finishing and design. You should try one in real life or just have a look at my comparison post.


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[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

I'm not. And I still don't believe this logic is the correct way of doing long term business and ensuring that there's a good flow of new customers to supplement the repeat business from pre-existing customers.

If AP stopped attracting new customers to their retail network directly (we need to stop saying grey market sales help the brand, they don't in the long term), and only catered to their existing clientele, AP will eventually face declining sales over the long term.

Most of my friends (many of whom are more financially capable than I am) find it a bit bitter when they ask me about a Jumbo only to get an explanation that "you have to buy all these watches you don't want first, and then maybe perhaps possibly you'll get the one you want, or maybe it'll get discontinued before your name comes up" OR "your other option is to pay 4x retail at a grey market dealer for a watch that might not be registered in your name with AP, and won't give you any clout with AP for future purchases if they release something limited that you like."

Those people just go elsewhere.

(And yes, some do go the grey route as others have pointed out here repeatedly.)

Genuine question: I wonder how those same friends feel about the pricing model of annual subscription ‘forced bundles’ and minimums of top wineries.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Most of my friends (many of whom are more financially capable than I am) find it a bit bitter when they ask me about a Jumbo only to get an explanation that "you have to buy all these watches you don't want first, and then maybe perhaps possibly you'll get the one you want, or maybe it'll get discontinued before your name comes up"

Well, if AP decides to make your rich friends happy by selling them the one watch they want (b/c that's the one watch everybody wants), while the watches they don't want continue to collect dust, AP isn't ahead either.

[shkure]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

Well, if AP decides to make your rich friends happy by selling them the one watch they want (b/c that's the one watch everybody wants), while the watches they don't want continue to collect dust, AP isn't ahead either.

Well, AP should stop making watches that collect dust then. This way they dont have to shove them down collector's throats alongside their great Royal Oaks. There is no reason for the 11.59 to exist and i don't understand why I have to buy one in order to get a 15202.

Feels like the 11.59 was a mistake from the AP CEO which he is not willing to admit. Instead he dumps it on his clients that are desperate to buy a RO. It will work in a hot market, but does not seem like a good long term strategy. Even in a hot market, the 11.59 resale value is only 50% of retail. That should tell you everything you need to know about this reference.

On the other hand, i would not mind buying a Remastered. I think they are quite cool and shed light on AP's watchmaking history before the Royal Oak. Something that the younger collector might not know.

No need to bloat the lineup with junk. Just RO and Remastered.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by shkure

No need to bloat the lineup with junk. Just RO and Remastered.

That would be a very adventurous business plan for a manufacturer of ultra-luxury Veblen goods

It seems that Rolex has achieved Nirvana, where people finally realized that they actually do want diamond encrusted 28mm DJs, champagne dialed DDs and dress watches that spent years collecting dust. I'm sure that's what every other company aspires to as well. Just need to learn to love that Code.

(full disclosure: I actually think the Code QP and the new 1/2-ceramic chronos are very nice)

[brucethemanlee]

I don't need the AP RO 15202 or 15500 in blue that badly that i will buy any version of the junk 11:59 or any other of AP's overpriced/gaudy watches.

Don't get me wrong - I would love to have it in my collection and am willing to wait and chat it up with SA/manager at AP boutique. But if AP doesn't want to sell to me fine. F*ck it. It's just a watch. No skin off my back. I'm not losing sleep over it. Not stressed that I can't get it. Zero anxiety.

Cash in the bank is better than spending $50k for some 11:59

My collection is solid enough and am very content with what I have (with or without AP)

I'm certainly not going grey for 15202 - whoever is paying $100k has more money than brains.

[RudyB]

Irrational exuberance at its best. Its definitely an agreement where the buyer does agree to pay the seller the asking price for the item, but one has to sit back and ask themselves if that watch is worth $100k to them. For some very wealthy people (and there are alot more of those people now thanks to the stock market and crypto), its meaningless. But I'd rather pay $100k for say an A Lange Double Split or Datograph or a Patek 5712 (which is at its own crazy price right now) than for a 15202, both are just way more "watch" than the AP. Just my two cents

[ragsk]

I don't think anyone is paying these prices. Grey dealer self inflated bubble.

[steeevvvooo]

https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink/top...ink_source=app

Older watch here but looks like it sold for mid 60s

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by steeevvvooo

https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink/top...ink_source=app

Older watch here but looks like it sold for mid 60s

List is mid-60's. Tough to say what it is actually under deposit for, sadly. Opaque markets.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by brucethemanlee

I don't need the AP RO 15202 or 15500 in blue that badly that i will buy any version of the junk 11:59 or any other of AP's overpriced/gaudy watches.

Don't get me wrong - I would love to have it in my collection and am willing to wait and chat it up with SA/manager at AP boutique. But if AP doesn't want to sell to me fine. F*ck it. It's just a watch. No skin off my back. I'm not losing sleep over it. Not stressed that I can't get it. Zero anxiety.

Cash in the bank is better than spending $50k for some 11:59

My collection is solid enough and am very content with what I have (with or without AP)

I'm certainly not going grey for 15202 - whoever is paying $100k has more money than brains.

That's exactly how I felt when my SA at the Lange Boutique told me he wouldn't be able to get me a SS Odysseus. Still trying to convince myself that I mean it.
Of course it's 3:30am and I'm awake, so maybe I am losing sleep over it.

[steeevvvooo]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

List is mid-60's. Tough to say what it is actually under deposit for, sadly. Opaque markets.

Very true. I was pointing out this listing as while it is not NOS, they are definitely out there for less than 100k. Even at the ask of 65k I personally would be buying preowned rather than 100k for a NOS piece.

[SMD]

Reality is most of the demand for the jumbo is because it will bring an instant profit. Nothing more. When the secondary market was not insane, jumbos sat in showcases and even sold at a discount. The demand wasn’t there because the profit wasn’t there.

How about this - AP sells you a jumbo, but has a contractual rofr on any resale for the term of the warranty. Deal? And if not why not?

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by SMD

Reality is most of the demand for the jumbo is because it will bring an instant profit. Nothing more. When the secondary market was not insane, jumbos sat in showcases and even sold at a discount. The demand wasn’t there because the profit wasn’t there.

How about this - AP sells you a jumbo, but has a contractual rofr on any resale for the term of the warranty. Deal? And if not why not?

If AP sells me a watch that I want (not the 15202), I’m willing to sign a contract to not sell the watch for X years. I think that’s a fair trade and an agreement most collectors would be willing to compromise to get the watches they want.

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by steeevvvooo

Very true. I was pointing out this listing as while it is not NOS, they are definitely out there for less than 100k. Even at the ask of 65k I personally would be buying preowned rather than 100k for a NOS piece.

Nice piece. I’d prefer the 15202ST with AP closer to 6 o’clock. More in line with the 5402.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by HMHM

If AP sells me a watch that I want (not the 15202), I’m willing to sign a contract to not sell the watch for X years. I think that’s a fair trade and an agreement most collectors would be willing to compromise to get the watches they want.

And what's in it for AP? They're no better off if they sell with right of refusal. I don't get this entire argument. AP is delighted that there is more demand for their watches than they are able (or willing) to supply.

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by cascavel

And what's in it for AP? They're no better off if they sell with right of refusal. I don't get this entire argument. AP is delighted that there is more demand for their watches than they are able (or willing) to supply.

They get to sell a watch or two at £50k and £75k to a client that will keep the watches for 10 years or more and will not see it ever on the secondary market. Isn’t that what they (AP) want? For a customer to enjoy the watch as intended?

But we know that won’t happen.... because the moment that happens values will drop and speculators start going elsewhere to gain maximum value. And we know what happens to the demand after that.

So yeah. Catch 22 situation.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by SMD

Reality is most of the demand for the jumbo is because it will bring an instant profit. Nothing more. When the secondary market was not insane, jumbos sat in showcases and even sold at a discount. The demand wasn’t there because the profit wasn’t there.

How about this - AP sells you a jumbo, but has a contractual rofr on any resale for the term of the warranty. Deal? And if not why not?

Fact. When I was first trying to get the jumbo I had a deal with my AD to give it to me at a discount at 17.5k. That was right when AP soon after announced the closing of all ADs. My old AD lost his license, naturally after that and I had to go elsewhere. Then the jumbo became next to impossible to get little by little.

I had so many opportunities to buy a nautilus or a jumbo 3-4 years ago when they were sitting in showrooms and no one wanted them. I always wanted both, but thought well they aren't that popular so I can get them whenever. What a mistake that was.......

[sathwik]

I enquired to buy one 6 months ago, price was 50k. Dropped it since I thought that was too much! Crazy where prices are going right now. Hope normalcy prevails again. This is not a fair game. Non authorised dealers are setting unrealistic prices. People should stop buying at premium price.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by HMHM

They get to sell a watch or two at £50k and £75k to a client that will keep the watches for 10 years or more and will not see it ever on the secondary market. Isn’t that what they (AP) want? For a customer to enjoy the watch as intended?

But we know that won’t happen.... because the moment that happens values will drop and speculators start going elsewhere to gain maximum value. And we know what happens to the demand after that.

So yeah. Catch 22 situation.

The current market situation is a dream come true for AP; they get to bundle a hot watch, be it a 15202 or a 15500, with a not hot watch and sell twice as many pieces and everybody walks away happy. There's no reason for them to change the situation.
Six years ago you could walk into an AP boutique and buy any watch you wanted right out of the case except the blue dial 15400. There was a two month wait for that one. Now there's nothing in the cases at all and AP's probably producing more watches. Retailer heaven.

[texasmade]

Originally Posted by cascavel

The current market situation is a dream come true for AP; they get to bundle a hot watch, be it a 15202 or a 15500, with a not hot watch and sell twice as many pieces and everybody walks away happy. There's no reason for them to change the situation.
Six years ago you could walk into an AP boutique and buy any watch you wanted right out of the case except the blue dial 15400. There was a two month wait for that one. Now there's nothing in the cases at all and AP's probably producing more watches. Retailer heaven.

Say what you want about FHB's 11:59 and Marvel teamup recent releases but he's doing a great job elevating the brand to bring the AP family gobs of money.

[GS93108]

Originally Posted by texasmade

Say what you want about FHB's 11:59 and Marvel teamup recent releases but he's doing a great job elevating the brand to bring the AP family gobs of money.

You're right and they aren't shy about spending it either.

The museum, the hotel, AP's 'loyalty' to its staff in the wake of Covid and its charities have all benefited from FHB's megalomania, kudos to them.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by cascavel

The current market situation is a dream come true for AP; they get to bundle a hot watch, be it a 15202 or a 15500, with a not hot watch and sell twice as many pieces and everybody walks away happy. There's no reason for them to change the situation.
Six years ago you could walk into an AP boutique and buy any watch you wanted right out of the case except the blue dial 15400. There was a two month wait for that one. Now there's nothing in the cases at all and AP's probably producing more watches. Retailer heaven.

That is exactly right and will further justify additional MSRP increases, ultimately increasing total revenue to AP.

[dauster]

Originally Posted by HMHM

If AP sells me a watch that I want (not the 15202), I’m willing to sign a contract to not sell the watch for X years. I think that’s a fair trade and an agreement most collectors would be willing to compromise to get the watches they want.

same here I don't think that's a real problem for most people. If I could just buy and hold the pieces I actually like than there would be no issues.

[dauster]

Originally Posted by texasmade

Say what you want about FHB's 11:59 and Marvel teamup recent releases but he's doing a great job elevating the brand to bring the AP family gobs of money.

while I smirk at FHB leather Berluti coat appearance next to Kevin Hart and truly dislike the black panther watch, people take it to far and act like FHB is the antichrist. 99% of all AP watches I love and it seems to be a great company. also it's only watches - if you don't like any of them move on to another brand. I heard Mr Stern wants his stolen designs for the 5270P from Breilting back.