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Old 16 April 2021, 05:15 AM   #31
austinp
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Maybe things were never as bad economically as the media made us believe. The low paying jobs that most people think were the ones lost due to the pandemic were helped by large unemployment checks. I personally only know one person who was prevented from working. He is a stage actor that made more money on unemployment than not. Other business owners that I know had some of the best years they’ve ever had.


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Old 16 April 2021, 06:17 AM   #32
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i was referring to mark cuban's vision for nft's and something that he's going to try to implement with the mavericks. i think we're far away from the digital asset use case



https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/26/mark...ticketing.html


Understand your comment better now.

As for digital asset cases, that is well underway and has sparked Cuban methinks.

https://ethereum.org/en/nft/




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Old 16 April 2021, 06:20 AM   #33
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I know your gist is the financial angle - but the global loss of life reaching nearly 3 million has consequential emotional impacts.

Ever heard, “Let us eat and drink,
for tomorrow we die”?

I think the spending sprees you’re noticing may be impacted by a “You Only Live Once” frame of mind. Debt is rising as sharply so it isn’t all stimulus money as some may suspect.


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I can't imagine that the stimulus checks have done much in the luxury market. First, those that qualify for them don't make much money, and Second, they weren't much money at all. Like fractionally what most need for a single month's worth of expenses.
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Old 16 April 2021, 06:28 AM   #34
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A few grand or whatever stimulus some people got has no bearing on the housing price frenzy...especially in light of the large number who lost income. Supply, especially in certain regions, simply has fallen behind demand. Builders backed off and getting that back up and running doesn't happen overnight. Many peopke saw this coming 5 years ago and with COVID driven labor shortages and material price increases added to the mix it just came on a much larger scale than anyone anticipated.

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Old 16 April 2021, 07:09 AM   #35
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Understand your comment better now.

As for digital asset cases, that is well underway and has sparked Cuban methinks.

https://ethereum.org/en/nft/




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i should've been more clear lol. but yeah i've slightly been keeping up with some nfts. i know there was a huge amount of hype with nba top shot packs, but not sure how i feel about them yet. i do think it's gonna be big for fighting counterfeiting eventually though
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Old 16 April 2021, 07:30 AM   #36
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Old 16 April 2021, 12:49 PM   #37
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Chip shortage = fewer new cars

Ships stuck at sea = less building materials

Less materials + running from cities = crazy home prices

Fear of inflation = desire to convert cash into a tangible asset

Etc etc etc.......


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Old 16 April 2021, 01:15 PM   #38
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My company sells in the automotive parts industry and sales have been through the roof for over a year now. These aren't parts for fixing cars....this is car styling.

Why is this all happening? Pretty easy. The pandemic, although serious, was blown way out of proportion to what it actually is. Obviously, it's no coincidence that we had an election during this time and both candidates exploited this all they could.....and quite honestly, the people won because one passed a stimulus to try to stay in office and get votes....and the other got into office promising to do even more.

Stimulus and PPP money was, for 99% of people, free money. The only real workers who were affected by this were service industry people....and the unemployment $$ they got as part of the stimulus was way more than they were making at work. I know of several restaurant owners who didn't even bother to re-open until just recently because their servers and bartenders were making more not working than they ever were working. I don't criticize them for that.....but they weren't hurting. They were getting something like $600/week?

I think most of the rest of the country is realizing that you can work at home just as effectively and most places didn't skip a beat (and will likely earn more as a result because they will realize they can cut costs and have a lot of the work staff work from home).
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Old 16 April 2021, 01:19 PM   #39
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I can't imagine that the stimulus checks have done much in the luxury market. First, those that qualify for them don't make much money, and Second, they weren't much money at all. Like fractionally what most need for a single month's worth of expenses.
It's not the stimulus.....but the PPP checks for a lot of people were big and there was/is little to no oversight to it. I personally did not apply for one.......but I know of a lot of people who did who do just fine.
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Old 16 April 2021, 02:45 PM   #40
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More ways to make money than ever in the digital economy. Forces not fully understood.

If people don't understand something..it's usually considered fake, impossible, not to be trusted or weaponized propaganda.

Belief in solely anecdotal situations / outcomes and what is pertaining to one's own self or situation tends to be toxic.

Econ 101 / 102...well 103/104 need to be added to the curriculum.
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Old 16 April 2021, 08:42 PM   #41
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I know your gist is the financial angle - but the global loss of life reaching nearly 3 million has consequential emotional impacts.

Ever heard, “Let us eat and drink,
for tomorrow we die”?

I think the spending sprees you’re noticing may be impacted by a “You Only Live Once” frame of mind. Debt is rising as sharply so it isn’t all stimulus money as some may suspect.


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Very good observation Paul, many people have a different mindset than they did several years ago.
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Old 16 April 2021, 09:19 PM   #42
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I can't imagine that the stimulus checks have done much in the luxury market. First, those that qualify for them don't make much money, and Second, they weren't much money at all. Like fractionally what most need for a single month's worth of expenses.

I thought so too. Until I went to the mall the weekend after the stimulus checks were issued. Gucci and LV were packed.


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Old 16 April 2021, 10:11 PM   #43
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I know your gist is the financial angle - but the global loss of life reaching nearly 3 million has consequential emotional impacts.

Ever heard, “Let us eat and drink,
for tomorrow we die”?

I think the spending sprees you’re noticing may be impacted by a “You Only Live Once” frame of mind. Debt is rising as sharply so it isn’t all stimulus money as some may suspect.


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Agree Paul.

And beyond the luxury market, there is also the scarcity from supply chain issues driving sales of what is available.

Tried to buy a 4WD walk behind trim mower last week. In my area, you cannot. Tried to find a replacement batter for my zero turn. No joy.

Stay safe.
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Old 16 April 2021, 10:17 PM   #44
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Times are tough for the folks in the bottom 80%. Cheap credit and low interest means all goes up. Problem is pay does not go up for most.
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Old 16 April 2021, 10:27 PM   #45
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Times are tough for the folks in the bottom 80%. Cheap credit and low interest means all goes up. Problem is pay does not go up for most.
Yup, people are getting priced out of the market on everything.
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Old 17 April 2021, 12:15 AM   #46
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I thought so too. Until I went to the mall the weekend after the stimulus checks were issued. Gucci and LV were packed.


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Ha!

I was listening to the radio and there was a segment where folks disclosed how they spent their stimulus...brunch bender weekends were the most common.
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Old 17 April 2021, 06:47 AM   #47
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As mentioned, a lot of this stuff (homes, autos, etc.) is primarily being bought on credit.

Your instinct that things are worse than they look could be correct. Inflation can have downright vicious effects. most in the US have not lived through serious inflation, but plenty of folks in other countries can attest to how crappy it is. It's now seeping into things that historically have been relatively cheap in the US, like housing / food / gas / cars / clothing

One thing I've noticed is reduced social cohesion. People have less trust in each other, viewpoints are increasingly polarized and driven by ideology, and more people appear to be bitter and angry. Not easily measured by the financial whizzes but IMO a big deal and trending in the wrong direction.
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Old 17 April 2021, 12:26 PM   #48
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The Federal Reserve has discontinued the money supply data reports......the world IS in trouble.
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Old 17 April 2021, 01:00 PM   #49
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Down Under, there is a sense that the sizeable proportion of the population with good, stable jobs and reliable incomes have, in the absence of overseas travel, channelled their excess earnings into goods of all sorts, incl luxury products.
I also wonder if, post GFC, the same people have decided to 'invest' in tangible objects that seem likely to hold or improve their value.
Unprecedented low housing-loan interest rates (and easy-lending bank policies) have created a housing bubble that will cause major problems again in the near future.
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Old 18 April 2021, 04:22 AM   #50
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+1000. Trying to explain "it never is" to someone who is convinced "this time it is" is more than frustrating. I've got a sister who is thinking of putting her kids college money in crypto because someone at her work made a killing off of it. The pro-cryptos are the absolute worst, they're swimming in the kool-aid. That implosion is going to be nuclear and I'd short it if I could find a way.
If you could find a way? Just open a Kraken account and short it? It's not that difficult. Just, FYI - the implosion will not be nuclear, and you should short at your own risk. Literally every bank, investment fund and government in the entire world is studying and/or increasing their positions in it. If you're still doubting it while the chairman of the SEC used to teach an entire class about it at MIT...you might want to rethink your position.
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Old 18 April 2021, 04:24 AM   #51
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If you could find a way? Just open a Kraken account and short it? It's not that difficult. Just, FYI - the implosion will not be nuclear, and you should short at your own risk. Literally every bank, investment fund and government in the entire world is studying and/or increasing their positions in it. If you're still doubting it while the chairman of the SEC used to teach an entire class about it at MIT...you might want to rethink your position.
also there's a race to the first bitcoin etf right now, and once that happens there will be too much money at risk to let it implode
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Old 18 April 2021, 04:38 AM   #52
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If you could find a way? Just open a Kraken account and short it? It's not that difficult. Just, FYI - the implosion will not be nuclear, and you should short at your own risk. Literally every bank, investment fund and government in the entire world is studying and/or increasing their positions in it. If you're still doubting it while the chairman of the SEC used to teach an entire class about it at MIT...you might want to rethink your position.
It can’t be shorted via traditional brokers. Mine won’t touch it. If someone created an etf for it that would be ideal for shorting. Which is likely why the etf hasn’t been created.

Crypto has no purpose for anything other than speculation. Every transaction made via crypto can be made cheaper with a US dollar without the transaction fees.

It dropped >80% in 2018 and it will do that again. It’s fools gold, this time isn’t different. Bubbles always burst.
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Old 18 April 2021, 04:52 AM   #53
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It can’t be shorted via traditional brokers. Mine won’t touch it. If someone created an etf for it that would be ideal for shorting. Which is likely why the etf hasn’t been created.

Crypto has no purpose for anything other than speculation. Every transaction made via crypto can be made cheaper with a US dollar without the transaction fees.

It dropped >80% in 2018 and it will do that again. It’s fools gold, this time isn’t different. Bubbles always burst.
are you referring to bitcoin or crypto in general? the bitcoin "bubble" burst 4 times and came back every time and each of those was without any mass adoption. 2017's bitcoin run was all retail fomo and it hit 19k for 1 day and that was it, in 2021 it's being bought by s&p companies. there's no arguing that there's a lot of garbage in the crypto world but there are legitimate ones that have real world use and can change the future
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Old 18 April 2021, 05:18 AM   #54
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are you referring to bitcoin or crypto in general? the bitcoin "bubble" burst 4 times and came back every time and each of those was without any mass adoption. 2017's bitcoin run was all retail fomo and it hit 19k for 1 day and that was it, in 2021 it's being bought by s&p companies. there's no arguing that there's a lot of garbage in the crypto world but there are legitimate ones that have real world use and can change the future
Crypto in general, but Bitcoin specifically. I have a hard time thinking that it won’t see a sub 10k price someday.

If there’s a purpose for it other than speculation, I’m not aware of it. It does seems like many are viewing it as an alternative to gold.

The most powerful commodity is currency and the most powerful organizations in this world are the banks and governments that print, hold and manage that currency. Crypto has little chance competing against them.

I should add that I work in private equity and am too involved in other areas to really take a deep deep dive into the other cryptos. If there’s some that have a purpose other than speculation, feel free to give me some reading homework and I’ll take a look at it.
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Old 18 April 2021, 05:24 AM   #55
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Crypto in general, but Bitcoin specifically. I have a hard time thinking that it won’t see a sub 10k price someday.

If there’s a purpose for it other than speculation, I’m not aware of it. It does seems like many are viewing it as an alternative to gold.

The most powerful commodity is currency and the most powerful organizations in this world are the banks, financial orgs and governments that print, hold and manage that currency. Crypto has little chance competing against them.

I should add that I work in private equity and am too involved in other areas to really take a deep deep dive into the other cryptos. If there’s some that have a purpose other than speculation, feel free to give me some reading homework and I’ll take a look at it.
bitcoin isn't supposed to be a currency. a long time ago people wanted it to be but as time went on it was easy to realize that it just wont be feasible. for one, there are fees for transactions that would make it pointless to spend on small things like groceries, and two, no one wants to pay capital gains tax every time they wanna buy something small

it's more of a store of value now and a hedge against inflation, but also allows for the freedom to use as money in cases where countries are strongly regulating people's money or freedom. it'll likely be used for transfers of wealth or big transactions when it comes to actually using it as a currency

the value of it comes from the fact that there are currently 18 million mined and a max of 21 million, but of those 18 million about 3-4 million are lost forever (people that lost access to their wallets/recovery codes), and of the remaining amount i think something like 75-80% has been stored long term and those wallets haven't shown any activity. that leaves about 2-3 million in circulation that are actually available to be traded. now add all these big investors that are trying to get in (tech s&p companies, clients of investment banks, etc) who aren't buying 1 or 2 bitcoins or even fractions of 1 like normal people, but thousands of them, and the price becomes much higher due to simple supply vs demand. for example, blackrock has 8 trillion dollars of assets under management, if they decide to put 0.1% of that into bitcoin that means 133k bitcoins as of right now, of the already small supply available. now imagine if the rest of wall street gets in, and they will, because they're all fighting for the first etf

now that it's been legitimized and accepted by wall street it's just a simple accumulation game with a very small supply
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Old 18 April 2021, 05:52 AM   #56
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bitcoin isn't supposed to be a currency. a long time ago people wanted it to be but as time went on it was easy to realize that it just wont be feasible. for one, there are fees for transactions that would make it pointless to spend on small things like groceries, and two, no one wants to pay capital gains tax every time they wanna buy something small

it's more of a store of value now and a hedge against inflation, but also allows for the freedom to use as money in cases where countries are strongly regulating people's money or freedom. it'll likely be used for transfers of wealth or big transactions when it comes to actually using it as a currency

the value of it comes from the fact that there are currently 18 million mined and a max of 21 million, but of those 18 million about 3-4 million are lost forever (people that lost access to their wallets/recovery codes), and of the remaining amount i think something like 75-80% has been stored long term and those wallets haven't shown any activity. that leaves about 2-3 million in circulation that are actually available to be traded. now add all these big investors that are trying to get in (tech s&p companies, clients of investment banks, etc) who aren't buying 1 or 2 bitcoins or even fractions of 1 like normal people, but thousands of them, and the price becomes much higher due to simple supply vs demand. for example, blackrock has 8 trillion dollars of assets under management, if they decide to put 0.1% of that into bitcoin that means 133k bitcoins as of right now, of the already small supply available. now imagine if the rest of wall street gets in, and they will, because they're all fighting for the first etf

now that it's been legitimized and accepted by wall street it's just a simple accumulation game with a very small supply
It’s accepted on Wall Street as a vehicle to engage in speculation and store value, but that’s it. It has no purpose other than that. Right now, more people want to buy it then sell it because they think the price will go up for the reasons you mentioned and several others. Accordingly, the price continues to rise. But that will change. When it does, there will be a rush to the exits.

I don’t expect to change your opinion. I’ve got several 20 something fresh MBA types working for me who have tried to change my opinion and that hasn’t worked either. I wouldn’t touch it, too risky. It could go to 100k and it could go to 10K. Good luck with it. I would suggest you follow the technicals and watch the order flow. When it gets bad, it’s going to get bad fast and the signs will be there.
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Old 18 April 2021, 06:02 AM   #57
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It’s accepted on Wall Street as a vehicle to engage in speculation and store value, but that’s it. It has no purpose other than that. Right now, more people want to buy it then sell it because they think the price will go up for the reasons you mentioned and several others. Accordingly, the price continues to rise. But that will change. When it does, there will be a rush to the exits.

I don’t expect to change your opinion. I’ve got several 20 something fresh MBA types working for me who have tried to change my opinion and that hasn’t worked either. I wouldn’t touch it, too risky. It could go to 100k and it could go to 10K. Good luck with it. I would suggest you follow the technicals and watch the order flow. When it gets bad, it’s going to get bad fast and the signs will be there.
you keep mentioning speculation and that it's useless but paypal will have it integrated into 29 million merchants this year and visa is getting in as well because they all realize it can actually be a currency as long as there's a proper middle man to handle fees and integrate two parties

but anyway we can agree to disagree. it's ok to not accept it or have different views on it but the facts and numbers are all there. your mba's probably can explain it better than i can, because i'm a programmer in the media industry with zero financial background, so if they can't then it's definitely pointless for me, but to say it's useless is just wrong. no one is saying it's not risky. if you don't want to take risks you probably already know where to go
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Old 18 April 2021, 06:26 AM   #58
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you keep mentioning speculation and that it's useless but paypal will have it integrated into 29 million merchants this year and visa is getting in as well because they all realize it can actually be a currency as long as there's a proper middle man to handle fees and integrate two parties

but anyway we can agree to disagree. it's ok to not accept it or have different views on it but the facts and numbers are all there. your mba's probably can explain it better than me because i'm a programmer in the media industry with zero financial background, so if they can't then it's definitely pointless for me, but to say it's useless is just wrong. no one is saying it's not risky. if you don't want to take risks you probably already know where to go
PayPal takes it as do several others, but there’s a 1%ish fee. It doesn’t really make any sense to use it when you can sell the bitcoin at the market price, take the cash and save the 1%. That’s not viable in the long term.

It’s not useless, there will always be someone looking to buy it with the hope of selling it at higher price. But it has no purpose other than that. Plus, it is kind of fun to watch.
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Old 18 April 2021, 06:28 AM   #59
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PayPal takes it as do several others, but there’s a 1%ish fee. It doesn’t really make any sense to use it when you can sell the bitcoin at the market price, take the cash and save the 1%. That’s not viable in the long term.

It’s not useless, there will always be someone looking to buy it with the hope of selling it at higher price. But it has no purpose other than that. Plus, it is kind of fun to watch.
selling the bitcoin at market price and taking cash will be much more than a 1% fee. it's literally the main reason coinbase got the valuation it got lol. fees for sending the money to an exchange (coinbase), fees for converting it to fiat, fees for withdrawing to your bank. unless you keep your money on their exchange, in which case you still need to always convert and withdraw instead of simply hitting a button to buy goods
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Old 18 April 2021, 06:46 AM   #60
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selling the bitcoin at market price and taking cash will be much more than a 1% fee. it's literally the main reason coinbase got the valuation it got lol. fees for sending the money to an exchange (coinbase), fees for converting it to fiat, fees for withdrawing to your bank. unless you keep your money on their exchange, in which case you still need to always convert and withdraw instead of simply hitting a button to buy goods
Yeah, I knew that, I wasn’t thinking. I should have said it’s always cheaper to use cash instead of Bitcoin. Thanks for correcting me.
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