Prices are not dropping!

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by TimeToWatch

Anyone spending these prices today is a fool

BLNR Jubliee is listed live on DavidSW now for $16,475 (and he prices himself high)
BLRO - on DavidSW for $18,375
116500 Black Dial - on DavidSW for $22,975

I think the high flyers will be the first to correct. Accordingly, take a look at 5711 prices and 116508 green dial prices. They are all correcting very quickly...

I don't disagree about the fools! Someone mentioned money laundering as a reason for these auction prices. Sounds like as good an explanation as any other that I've heard.

Wonder if the greys see these stupid prices and say hey I need to raise my prices?

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by ian.thomas

I vote we make Steven a mod so he can keep up with moving all of these threads to the 'new' section.

Transition starting now and of course it will take some time. Progress... Eventually am sure people will get it and use the new section. It could also easily open up individual threads for each timepiece reference for speculation. Lots of upside.

Am I being too optimistic? I believe in people

Even though I stayed at a Holiday Inn once, you don't want me as a moderator.

[Jarlaxle]

Originally Posted by exador

These auctions have long been known to be a source of money laundering

https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auct...less?locale=en

Now THAT actually makes sense. Otherwise why would someone pay those prices when, as the member above me just pointed out, you can buy from DavidSW, a very well known and trustworthy dealer, and have it shipped to you overnight for thousands less?

And FWIW it seems like even DavidSW's prices are down just a bit from their highs, at least on the GMT's which is what I am focused on.

[DTap]

Originally Posted by Jarlaxle

Now THAT actually makes sense. Otherwise why would someone pay those prices when, as the member above me just pointed out, you can buy from DavidSW, a very well known and trustworthy dealer, and have it shipped to you overnight for thousands less?

And FWIW it seems like even DavidSW's prices are down just a bit from their highs, at least on the GMT's which is what I am focused on.

Would love to see his sales data. I bet the answer is all there. How many he’s sellin and at what price.... also props to DSW, I never bought from him, but hat a couple interactions. He was always cool and it’s easy to forget he was selling many models below msrp just two years ago.

[Kliminator]

Originally Posted by sillo38

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Didn't know there was a watchrecon app!

[DoDe]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

LOL!!!

Please mods / admin..... it's time for a separate section for speculation. Just do it!

Don't think, do!

Thank you.


"A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing."
-- Oscar Wilde

This. Please!

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by DoDe

This. Please!

Thank you, and look fwd to the mods / admin starting a new section so speculators can have their own 'playground' with its own threads about pricing, availability, resale values, etc.

[Jona]

I agree with you Steven.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

BLNR Jubilee- 22.5K No drop here
BLRO- 25K Looks like an increase to me
116500LN Black Dial- 27.5K no drop here either
04 Kermit Flat 4- 21,250.00 lot of money for this.

How many of each you hoarding? See you on the for sale section. Join date 2019 aiy? So be honest how many did you buy at premium and now hoping your not going to get hosed?

[Jerrocop]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

CAN WE PLEASE HAVE A SEPARATE SECTION FOR PRICING / SPECULATION / ETC.

PLEASE

Nah . . . I enjoy these posts!

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Jerrocop

Nah . . . I enjoy these posts!

And you will be able to enjoy them as they'll simply be in another section focused on topics such as this and not within TRF's General discussion.

Obviously the topic(s) are so popular nowadays that it merits its own section imho.

[SN13]

Listen, we get it, you want to Justify spending 2x MSRP on whatever Rolex you just bought.

You want to convince others to do the same so that you don't feel so bad about being "The only one" to make the stupid decision....

The reality is, there will always be more supply than demand for items like (Currently Produced) Rolex Watches...

The demand of actual USERS vs the Supply at Inflated prices, has reached a tipping point.

There are HUNDREDS of over-priced Rolex watches on Chrono24 etc etc. that are not selling. Why? Because those with money enough to not care about the price, already have theirs. Those with enough money but also with enough sense to not play the GREY games, are in a holding pattern.

Maybe they will buy that Hulk back at 10k instead of 14k.... some won't until it hits MSRP again. Some won't until they can get it slightly discounted used again.

Without Resellers, gobbling up inventory, the prices would be much more stable.

You see cycles like this through many many items over the years.

Houses, Vintage Cars, Vintage Watches, Modern Watches, Iphones, Baseball Cards, Beanie Babies, etc etc.

There is always the ramp up, the "Oh, I need that"... the "It's only a few bucks more than it used to be" justifications... until it's just stupid.


488 results for 116610LV
5 Results for 116610LV under $13k.
381 results for OVER $15k....
97 for OVER $17k...
22 over $19k....

There is $6 THOUSAND separating the items for sale...

If they were worth $14k or $17k, the ones under 13k would be GOBBLED up for relisting at 14,15,17+ . . . why aren't the resellers doing this?

If you have almost 500 sales, and only 5 are under 13k and they STILL aren't sold, the perceived value is even further under 13k than shown.

The other 480+ listings are just wishing.




Edit:
Lowest Two 116500LN on Chrono24 today - $21.8k and $21.9k (US based)
$22k-$25k - 118 Listings. (Including White)
$25k-$27.5k - 196 listings.
$27.5k-$30k - 58 listings.

Again. If they are worth $27k, why not buy up all 120 listings under 25k and relist at 27k? No-Brainer right?

[scubadds]

I would think a "market watch" subforum would make sense...but sometimes posts that intend to have another subject will stray into that secondary gray market price territory.

...at least that is what I see on other subject matter forums that I am on....
You tend to get the "don't mention that here" or "move the thread"
which can be a drag too

[rominvicta]

Originally Posted by TimeToWatch

Anyone spending these prices today is a fool

BLNR Jubliee is listed live on DavidSW now for $16,475 (and he prices himself high)
BLRO - on DavidSW for $18,375
116500 Black Dial - on DavidSW for $22,975

I think the high flyers will be the first to correct. Accordingly, take a look at 5711 prices and 116508 green dial prices. They are all correcting very quickly...

Mark somewhere or somehow your words. You have 50% chance to claim you knew it!

[LndLord]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

CAN WE PLEASE HAVE A SEPARATE SECTION FOR PRICING / SPECULATION / ETC.

PLEASE

I asked for this in November and that's when it first started now this whole forum is based about pricing and how i cant get this watch.

[singe89]

The biggest problem I see is that if in fact 9 out of 10 transactions are actually B2B with wholesalers then the demand from the end consumer isn't really there to start with. If the market softens will all of these small business grey dealers be able to hold inventory to help keep prices up or will they be forced to sell at lower prices?

Rolex, AP and Patek have controlled this in the primary market but don't have control of the secondary market and if these wholesale gray dealers are forced to sell off inventory at lower prices then it could do exactly what these manufactures have tried to prevent.

[GB-man]

Ignore auctions they are not indicative of true market price on low cost modern pieces.

Prices are down from a month ago but not so much from 6 months ago.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by LndLord

I asked for this in November and that's when it first started now this whole forum is based about pricing and how i cant get this watch.

Thanks and yes, perhaps it is a bit overdue yet am sure the mods / admin are fluid enough to make the move now with a new board for those topics, which imho do not fall under General as TRF desperately needs a section for those other discussions as well. A win-win for all :)

[Strummer25]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Thanks and yes, perhaps it is a bit overdue yet am sure the mods / admin are fluid enough to make the move now with a new board for those topics, which imho do not fall under General as TRF desperately needs a section for those other discussions as well. A win-win for all :)

Good point well made. Can we have another section for is it safe to wear my Rolex in xxxx (insert city/country) or doing xxx (insert activity - gardening, going to the beach, taking a shower etc)

[tenerific]

FWIW, I haggle with dealers all the time and a surprising number are unwilling to offer serious discounts (we're talking vintage mostly for the record). And I have yet to encounter any dealer willing to dip below their cost basis.

I do consider vintage affected by the grey market since, well, if you want a steel rolex where are you going to get one these days?

But, point is, sky is not falling yet. When we see liquidation at cost or below there will be issues. Even then, I don't think Rolex MSRP will move downwards absent metorite strike or something a la 1917 so that should provide a floor

[LarsFS]

The market is whatever the market is, and to some people it's ludicrous to pay >1.0x MSRP while other people, for whatever reason, consider it a good use of capital. It's just another market.

Instead of posting (bullish) auction results or (bearish) TRF bump observations, perhaps you could either 1) build your own spider, or 2) take a look at this site (I am not affiliated with it, nor do I have a dog in the fight either):

https://www.watchpricetrend.com/

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by sillo38

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What app is this?


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[Peter Toronto]

It looks like WatchRecon. I hope that helps.


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[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by Peter Toronto

It looks like WatchRecon. I hope that helps.


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Thank you!


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[dori]

Originally Posted by LarsFS

The market is whatever the market is, and to some people it's ludicrous to pay >1.0x MSRP while other people, for whatever reason, consider it a good use of capital. It's just another market.

Instead of posting (bullish) auction results or (bearish) TRF bump observations, perhaps you could either 1) build your own spider, or 2) take a look at this site (I am not affiliated with it, nor do I have a dog in the fight either):

https://www.watchpricetrend.com/

Is this site considered reliable?


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[bezler]

Originally Posted by dori

Is this site considered reliable?


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I visited the site, and read all that they had to say about their site. My initial impression would be unreliable.

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[Etschell]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

I've been reading and watching videos of a few experts claiming prices are dropping and some cases dropping hard. I'm not going to dispute the fact that certain models of certain brands might not be dropping but The Rolex market is as strong as it's ever been. And that's not me saying it, it's Mr Market saying it.

Everybody agrees that a watch is only worth what people are willing to pay for it. You can say it another way also, that a watch IS worth what people are paying for it.

Sotheby's online auction that just closed. Strong pricing. No argument from me that its crazy pricing but that's what the market is saying these watches are worth. So the experts can say what they want I'll go by what people are actually paying.

BLNR Jubilee- 22.5K No drop here
BLRO- 25K Looks like an increase to me
116500LN Black Dial- 27.5K no drop here either
04 Kermit Flat 4- 21,250.00 lot of money for this.

I'll go with auction pricing over what is conveyed on C24 any day.

I have a bridge in Brooklyn I can sell you. Real good deal.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

What app is this?


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Watchrecon

[sillo]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

What app is this?

As a few others have said it's watch recon.

[Tavli3]

And your point being?


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