The shortage is turning into a desert

[C0d]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

This is a VERY important anecdote and illustrates a strong reason why the Rolex case is often "empty" and the Omega case is always "full".

In very simple terms, the general public, NON-WIS buyer does a quick and easy search for Omega and sees 99% of their references offered online at substantial discounts...discounts the AD won't match. Even if they did, that discovery shakes faith in the brand. Why is it worth less? If I buy it, will it be worthless? As much as the WIS community HATES that thought pattern with fury and venom, that is what is going on in the mind of the general public.
When they google ROLEX....they see values ABOVE MSRP. Combine that with the unparalleled brand cache' and there really is no competition in their minds.
ROLEX PLEASE! Any Rolex. Just get me Rolex. So they will buy whatever is there or wait until they can get something. Not even the "hawt" watches we all chase....just get a ROLEX.

This can be seen in shopping areas with both Rolex and Omega stores.

The Rolex store has more people in them than watches. The Omega store is full of watches and nobody is in them. It's not even close.

This clearly applies to the WIS collector as well as the poster mentioned. Just wait for the Rolex. It's much more rewarding that overpaying for Omega.

What an analysis.

Anyways... back on the subject. I do like some Rolex models, most of their new stuff I find them ugly so I don't care much for that. Would like an Explorer I, maybe a GMT BLNR someday but can not find them anywhere and I am not wealthy enough to go grey or play the AD games.

Secondly, some people have opened themselves to other brands and are having fun with it. If you haven't atleast tried the Omega Diver 300, Speedmaster, Bond NTTD, AT 41 on your wrist, you are missing out. Heck even new Breitling watches look nice and they are perhaps looking at this opportunity now made available by Rolex's departure or move upmarket or whatever you want to call this shortage.

Lastly, some only want Rolex and that's fine. Some want to try other things in life and now is a great opportunity for them to do so.

[fsprow]

Wait so you guys foresee their being a resurgence in the market where we will finally but able to get what we want ?’

If a time comes when these watches are readily available, chances are we will no longer want to buy them.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by padi56

Yes but today Rolex are no longer watches bought to wear and enjoy to many now today little more than ££££$$$ object things.

Correct,therefore the very high demand .

[Geckobros]

This wont make me popular but I will say that the grey market hasn't helped the situation. New with stickers? Hot models getting to the Grey's before AD customers? Some AD's not behaving as professionals? It's a mess for collectors and watch enthusiasts. Those "average customers" wanting to mark a life event/achievement with a new Rolex watch are in for a surprise. Perhaps Rolex is positioning Tudor to be what Rolex used to be? Maybe it's just a bubble? I certainly don't know. The investor mentality has ruined the experience imo. As others have said.. just about any model you want is available today if you are willing to open up your bank account. I guess that is one way to measure exclusiveness?

As a side note, I have the models I want so my opinions aren't coming from a jaded/frustrated collectors perspective but just observations from reading threads on various forums. It's a luxury item and in the grand scheme of things it isn't important.

[MasonDixon]

Originally Posted by Geckobros

Perhaps Rolex is positioning Tudor to be what Rolex used to be?

Good luck with that. Tudor makes nice watches, but most people who desire to own a Rolex aren't going to be content with a Tudor.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

Went to a local AD yesterday just hoping to try on a DJ41 to gauge the size.

2 giant display cases and it was 80% empty. Not a single watch above 36mm in size in the case and all ladies watches expect for 1 Cellini.

Told the guy I was hoping to try on a DJ41 either SS or a PM piece. He said they have nothing unfortunately. He also said they have only seen 2 new subs all year. He offered to put me on the list for a few pieces but I declined.

I said it is sad to see the cases so barren this time of year and he admitted it is embarrassing that it has come to this.

So I looked at the Omega case and that was full and I was smitten with the new Omega Seamaster Titanium. May end up diverting my Rolex funds that way

This is not a rant, just an update on the state of affairs

I feel your exact same pain. What part of NC?

[flw]

I'm no expert in any of this. But a few thoughts occur to me.

When I bought my one (and, given current trends, probably my only) Rolex in early 2015, I was able to walk into a local AD (a small jeweler with only one location) and admire the watch I wanted, sitting alongside many others across a wide range of models, in several fully stocked display cases. None of us can really do that anymore. One thing that happened in the meantime, I think, is Instagram. The exponential growth of online "influencers" has been part of the huge increase in demand. (One other thing that happened in the meantime was that Rolex totally reorganized their distribution and AD network, and single storefront dealers got canned, including my AD, who had had a Rolex authorization for half a century. He lost it with about two weeks notice.)

The other thing that I think is probably a factor is indeed the grey market, but Rolex, as a business firm, has an almost unique degree of international legal clout. The control they can (in principle) exert over how their product is marketed and sold, and the conditions they can impose (if they choose to), are unparalleled across almost any kind of industry - they are just about the single most recognized brand name in the world, or at least one of the top five or so. Which is to say that, if the grey market did not, in some fashion, suit Rolex in the way they want their product distributed, they could probably put a stop to it, at least in its current form. But they don't.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by padi56

Yes but today Rolex are no longer watches bought to wear and enjoy to many now today little more than ££££$$$ object things.

Please forgive me, I have read your comments here before but I know and have known plenty of people who buy nice watches and I would say with them its 100% opposite of your point. I only see new people on here occasionally asking about investment...Just saying...

However, I guess the investment aspect is what is driving the craziness with Rolex buying or as I call it, waiting!!

[Flyfisher]

My local Rolex dealer just published their Christmas catalog, which used to be full of Rolex pics. Not a single image. Can't blame them, why advertise what they can't get.

[nosignalbmwdriver]

Because I care.

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

Why do you care about whether Rolex is exclusive or not?

[nosignalbmwdriver]

Really? All I read is crying about availability on a daily basis

Originally Posted by samson66

Psst, don't tell anyone but there's nothing all that exclusive about a brand that sells a million watches a year...

Sent from my Galaxy S20 using Tapatalk

[Geckobros]

Originally Posted by Flyfisher

My local Rolex dealer just published their Christmas catalog, which used to be full of Rolex pics. Not a single image. Can't blame them, why advertise what they can't get.

I too recently received a catalog from a rather large Rolex AD. They used to splash "Rolex" between the covers but not a single mention. There is one advertisement on the back cover, "The New Submariner" #Perpetual. It did give me a chuckle.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by C0d

What an analysis.

Anyways... back on the subject. I do like some Rolex models, most of their new stuff I find them ugly so I don't care much for that. Would like an Explorer I, maybe a GMT BLNR someday but can not find them anywhere and I am not wealthy enough to go grey or play the AD games.

Secondly, some people have opened themselves to other brands and are having fun with it. If you haven't atleast tried the Omega Diver 300, Speedmaster, Bond NTTD, AT 41 on your wrist, you are missing out. Heck even new Breitling watches look nice and they are perhaps looking at this opportunity now made available by Rolex's departure or move upmarket or whatever you want to call this shortage.

Lastly, some only want Rolex and that's fine. Some want to try other things in life and now is a great opportunity for them to do so.

Thanks. Its very accurate as to the market condition.

I think I actually own more Omega than Rolex at this point, but not one of them were purchased in lieu of a Rolex. I just don't see people doing that as much as being discussed. Maybe the WIS will to get a new watch fix, but I don't see many non WIS going away from Rolex ...why would they? They want Rolex and will wait for it.

[cgaites]

I won't opine as to how Rolex's strategy (if it is indeed intentional) is working out for Rolex themselves. However, I can say that I have my doubts as to how it working out for their ADs. A couple of years ago there were three Rolex ADs in driving distance of my home. Today, one has completely stopped carrying Rolex except for a small pre-owned inventory. Another now only carries Rolex at one of its 3 locations. The last still carries Rolex, but recently replaced their standalone Rolex boutique with a standalone Omega boutique. Rolex inventory has been moved to a set of (mostly empty) cases at the back of the multi-brand location.

My main relationship is with the last of those ADs where I have what this forum would consider a modest purchase history, but one which spans Rolex, other watch brands, as well as jewelry for my wife. When I spoke with the manager about the replacement of the Rolex boutique for the Omega one, what he told me was that he never had any Rolex inventory to sell. He also said that the lack of inventory was angering customers and impacting the stores other business. Also the constant negative interaction with customers was making it hard for him to retain sales staff. Meanwhile, he claimed that Omega's sport watches were moving well - especially the new Seamasters and the various Speedmaster moonwatches.

Of course, it is perfectly possible this winnowing of ADs is all part of Rolex's master plan and that my AD is just making excuses for not "making the cut". However, they also carry higher end brands like Patek and JLC, as well as all of the Rolex level brands such as Breitling, Paneria, Cartier, Grand Seiko, and IWC. So, take from that what you will.

[C0d]

Originally Posted by cgaites

When I spoke with the manager about the replacement of the Rolex boutique for the Omega one, what he told me was that he never had any Rolex inventory to sell.

I am not sure if you can swap for an Omega boutique (AD perhaps?). Rolex Boutiques are third party owners who have the designation of a boutique (higher than AD I presume) whereas Omega Boutiques (not ADs) are owned by Swatch Group in their entirety. This is my understanding, if not correct I am sure someone more knowledgable will correct me soon.

Not surprised to hear this. I know from two Omega ADs that their business is up and the White Seamaster is pretty much a waitlist item (Vancouver). That and the new 50th Snoopy has a longer waitlist than Rolex SS.

[flw]

Originally Posted by cgaites

I won't opine as to how Rolex's strategy (if it is indeed intentional) is working out for Rolex themselves. However, I can say that I have my doubts as to how it working out for their ADs. A couple of years ago there were three Rolex ADs in driving distance of my home. Today, one has completely stopped carrying Rolex except for a small pre-owned inventory. Another now only carries Rolex at one of its 3 locations. The last still carries Rolex, but recently replaced their standalone Rolex boutique with a standalone Omega boutique. Rolex inventory has been moved to a set of (mostly empty) cases at the back of the multi-brand location.

My main relationship is with the last of those ADs where I have what this forum would consider a modest purchase history, but one which spans Rolex, other watch brands, as well as jewelry for my wife. When I spoke with the manager about the replacement of the Rolex boutique for the Omega one, what he told me was that he never had any Rolex inventory to sell. He also said that the lack of inventory was angering customers and impacting the stores other business. Also the constant negative interaction with customers was making it hard for him to retain sales staff. Meanwhile, he claimed that Omega's sport watches were moving well - especially the new Seamasters and the various Speedmaster moonwatches.

Of course, it is perfectly possible this winnowing of ADs is all part of Rolex's master plan and that my AD is just making excuses for not "making the cut". However, they also carry higher end brands like Patek and JLC, as well as all of the Rolex level brands such as Breitling, Paneria, Cartier, Grand Seiko, and IWC. So, take from that what you will.

This.

[T01]

My AD is getting extremely low quantities in their shipments and cases have never been so empty. We're talking a larger, high volume dealer. They simply are not getting the stock. They're actually quite concerned about it with the holidays approaching.

[Fleetlord]

These reports from the field are quite interesting.

This particular thread is how dry availability is...

The very next thread posted could be..a ’Notice more incomings’ inventory is loosening up thread.

[NYG1121]

What is interesting is that even back around 2015-2016, if you bought a SS sports rolex you could always break even if you decide to sell. That was intriguing enough for a lot of buyers relative to other brands. Now it has gone too far in the other direction where motive for a lot of buyers is to make money. Totally different and actually sets up for a pretty harsh crash sometime in the future.

[C0d]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

What is interesting is that even back around 2015-2016, if you bought a SS sports rolex you could always break even if you decide to sell. That was intriguing enough for a lot of buyers relative to other brands. Now it has gone too far in the other direction where motive for a lot of buyers is to make money. Totally different and actually sets up for a pretty harsh crash sometime in the future.

As much as I dislike it, I doubt that is going to happen.

I have been hearing of that about hot housing markets, hot car models amongst other things. The fact remains, the demand out of developing and upcoming nations (G20) is enormous. They have insatiable appetite for luxury good, and is also a means for them to hide money (either because of the source or because of the fear of their own adminstration).

Look at Bitcoin.

Look at housing in London, NY, Vancouver & Sydney.

Anyone wants to chime in on the Casino scandal?

This will not stop. If you think otherwise, good luck with the wait. Go visit some of these places and you will know what I mean.

[cgaites]

Originally Posted by C0d

I am not sure if you can swap for an Omega boutique (AD perhaps?). Rolex Boutiques are third party owners who have the designation of a boutique (higher than AD I presume) whereas Omega Boutiques (not ADs) are owned by Swatch Group in their entirety.

I'm not sure if either the Rolex or Omega storefronts were/are properly classified as boutiques or not. All I know is that they were/are separate storefronts immediately adjacent to the main multi-brand jeweler. Separate entrances, extensive dedicated Rolex/Omega signage, and nothing but Rolex/Omega watches in the cases. They were/are however connected to the main store via an internal doorway, and sales staff moved freely between the main store and "boutique" (however they did hand out different, Rolex/Omega branded business cards in the boutique areas).

[Alfredo.]

My collection is peanunts compared to so many on here and especially if I was to compare it to some of the so called “VIP” Clients at my city. I’m pretty comfortable where I am and although I most certainly wouldn’t pass on the chance of purchasing a blue skydweller for example, I honestly don’t feel incomplete without it. It would be nice to have all the “hot models” just like it would be nice to have a 100 Million dollar yacht, but I’m doing just fine without it and don’t lose any sleep over it. I think, regardless of the size of your collection, the reason why you buy watches, etc..you shouldn’t either. just my 2 cents.

[TheVTCGuy]

I am as dumbfounded and frustrated as every other WIS with the incredible difficulty in obtaining a Rolex, from an AD, at MSRP. I can not offer any solutions or explanations. I will however, disagree with some of the statements made in this thread about the “purpose” of a Rolex. I can not speak for anyone else, but my Rolex was purchased to be worn and enjoyed, NOT as an investment, barter, or attempt to make a quick buck. I enjoy my (new) sub every day that I wear it, and I plan on wearing it for a long time.

[teck21]

Last visit to mine where my ex-Wife picked up an OP. Some display cases were covered in cloth and my SA they were in the process of removing some of them.

No point having cases with nothing in them to sell.

Correction: no point in having cases when so much product is getting sold to existing customers before they even hit the shelves.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[teck21]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

I am as dumbfounded and frustrated as every other WIS with the incredible difficulty in obtaining a Rolex, from an AD, at MSRP. I can not offer any solutions or explanations. I will however, disagree with some of the statements made in this thread about the “purpose” of a Rolex. I can not speak for anyone else, but my Rolex was purchased to be worn and enjoyed, NOT as an investment, barter, or attempt to make a quick buck. I enjoy my (new) sub every day that I wear it, and I plan on wearing it for a long time.

Everybody’s desire for a Rolex is different.

Some, like you live the watch. Others like me love the brand, some just want to show off. Some just want to hoard them.

Who has the greatest claim to them? Is anybody’s claim superior to anyone else’s? If so, why?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by cgaites

I'm not sure if either the Rolex or Omega storefronts were/are properly classified as boutiques or not. All I know is that they were/are separate storefronts immediately adjacent to the main multi-brand jeweler. Separate entrances, extensive dedicated Rolex/Omega signage, and nothing but Rolex/Omega watches in the cases. They were/are however connected to the main store via an internal doorway, and sales staff moved freely between the main store and "boutique" (however they did hand out different, Rolex/Omega branded business cards in the boutique areas).

I know exactly what you’re saying. The Mayors at the Aventura mall has that exact setup. The Rolex section is like a separate store with its own entrance but is fully connected to the main store. Only in this situation it looks like the y are expanding the Rolex area into the space next door and going to double it’s size.
Their cases are always full albeit with the usual suspects.

Very interesting to hear about negative impact from an ADs perspective. We’ve always only heard our negative reactions. So it seems Rolex’s answer to the problem is less ADs which means less bitching to deal with. And less watches they have to make which either means higher desirability/market prices or more watches to the chosen few or both.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[rambo99]

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

Wow, but I can understand. The SA basically apologized to me. Then while we were in the Omega section I heard another SA apologizing to another customer at the Rolex case that they had no Oyster Perpetuals to show him

All the SAs can do is apologize to customers and offer to add them to lists

they are willing and happy to apologize to you watching the empty cases because they've made quite a lot of money offloading the hot rolex pieces out of their backdoor.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

I am as dumbfounded and frustrated as every other WIS with the incredible difficulty in obtaining a Rolex, from an AD, at MSRP. I can not offer any solutions or explanations. I will however, disagree with some of the statements made in this thread about the “purpose” of a Rolex. I can not speak for anyone else, but my Rolex was purchased to be worn and enjoyed, NOT as an investment, barter, or attempt to make a quick buck. I enjoy my (new) sub every day that I wear it, and I plan on wearing it for a long time.

Exactly, well said...

[garyk]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

I know exactly what you’re saying. The Mayors at the Aventura mall has that exact setup. The Rolex section is like a separate store with its own entrance but is fully connected to the main store. Only in this situation it looks like the y are expanding the Rolex area into the space next door and going to double it’s size.
Their cases are always full albeit with the usual suspects.

Very interesting to hear about negative impact from an ADs perspective. We’ve always only heard our negative reactions. So it seems Rolex’s answer to the problem is less ADs which means less bitching to deal with. And less watches they have to make which either means higher desirability/market prices or more watches to the chosen few or both.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Completely off topic but I was “Pretty Womaned” (as my son told me) by an SA and the manager at the Aventura Mayors in 2015. We drove to the design district in Miami to the then new Rolex Boutique store where I was able to order a new Deep Blue DSSD. They also got me a 116500 white dial the next year so I have not been back to Mayors since...

[AndrewMeadville]

Originally Posted by Danny83

AD in Texas 2 weeks ago ha!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Hahaha! This picture reminds of the the empty stores when the Soviet Union fell 30 years ago. It’s sad this is what it has come to.