Electric cars....sooner than you think?

[Blansky]

Originally Posted by swils8610

Infrastructure…


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But I don't think it works like a "build it and they will come" scenario.

It works more like a transition on need/wants. I got this, I need this.

I got this, someone invents this. We have this problem, we fix this problem.

I think it works on incremental demand not on an already built and ready to go system.

That's how the change over to digital cameras went. First ones sucked. But year after year they got better, bigger files, faster etc.... infrastructure changed, printers got better, inks got more archival, demand increased and computer programs got better. The initial Photoshop was a complex and not great program that crashed your computer.

It wasn't like digital photography came out as a finished product, there were many birth pains along the way. But the thing is once you've made the decision to change a platform, the evolution begins. There is never a going back, only problem solving and going forwards.

Interestingly Kodak rules the world up until around 1990 and they tried to go digital but the brain trust couldn't image a world without film. Meanwhile Sony and Fuji started to eat their lunch. Kodak built the first digital camera but they somehow were still living in the past. 22 years later they were toast. Left in the dust. Filed for bankruptcy in 2012.

I was once photographing a 4 year old kid in my studio in around 2005 and was still using a Hasselblad (6x6 film camera) and I'd set up the shot and I'd sometimes let the mother look in viewfinder to see the picture I was going to take. The kid asked to see it too. I told him I couldn't show him the picture because it was a film camera and he started to cry because he wanted to see the picture.

In his lifetime he had never seen a camera that you couldn't look on the back and see the picture.

[Axi128]

I definitely know that some years from now, they will be everywhere.

[Tools]

Originally Posted by Axi128

I definitely know that some years from now, they will be everywhere.

Yes.. parked in yards because nobody can afford to replace the batteries.

[zengineer]

Originally Posted by uscmatt99

Yeah if it makes business sense, which I suspect it increasingly will over time, any company or government entity with a fleet of daily use vehicles will transition to EV sooner rather than later. The F150 is a really big deal for this reason.



Regarding long-haul trucks, will they be significantly heavier as EVs? The weights of these vehicles account for the majority of roadway wear and tear. Then there is the safety issue of appropriate braking systems. There will be a lot more nitty gritty sorting out that transition than there will be for other use cases.

Maybe a larger issue, at least in the US is that fuel taxes fund a significant portion of road construction and maintenance. I'm sure our leaders will figure that out.

Whether they are heavier depends on battery range. I deal with all the major conventional truck manufacturers as well as several new entries in the market. The ramp up is already happening.

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[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by Tools

Yes.. parked in yards because nobody can afford to replace the batteries.

I have to disagree Larry, the price of batteries has come down, something like 10 times lower then it was 10-15 years ago. I can look it up but something like that. I believe as more and more pressure is put on the industry by more and more people buying electric cars, then they will come down even further.

[BNA/LION]

I think the EV is definitely going to be the norm, it's just going to happen. The US will get the charging grid worked out and technology will line up to make them available at reasonable price points. Plus you will still see "Exotics" being built buy ALL the major players!
https://www.caranddriver.com/tesla/roadster

[BreguetRolex]

Originally Posted by Blansky

But I don't think it works like a "build it and they will come" scenario.

It works more like a transition on need/wants. I got this, I need this.

I got this, someone invents this. We have this problem, we fix this problem.

I think it works on incremental demand not on an already built and ready to go system.

That's how the change over to digital cameras went. First ones sucked. But year after year they got better, bigger files, faster etc.... infrastructure changed, printers got better, inks got more archival, demand increased and computer programs got better. The initial Photoshop was a complex and not great program that crashed your computer.

It wasn't like digital photography came out as a finished product, there were many birth pains along the way. But the thing is once you've made the decision to change a platform, the evolution begins. There is never a going back, only problem solving and going forwards.

Interestingly Kodak rules the world up until around 1990 and they tried to go digital but the brain trust couldn't image a world without film. Meanwhile Sony and Fuji started to eat their lunch. Kodak built the first digital camera but they somehow were still living in the past. 22 years later they were toast. Left in the dust. Filed for bankruptcy in 2012.

I was once photographing a 4 year old kid in my studio in around 2005 and was still using a Hasselblad (6x6 film camera) and I'd set up the shot and I'd sometimes let the mother look in viewfinder to see the picture I was going to take. The kid asked to see it too. I told him I couldn't show him the picture because it was a film camera and he started to cry because he wanted to see the picture.

In his lifetime he had never seen a camera that you couldn't look on the back and see the picture.

You "Old Picture SNAPPER"...!

[Tools]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

I have to disagree Larry, the price of batteries has come down, something like 10 times lower then it was 10-15 years ago. I can look it up but something like that. I believe as more and more pressure is put on the industry by more and more people buying electric cars, then they will come down even further.

Yes, the price has come down into the $5,000 to 10,000 dollar area for a battery. But you can't jump start it to get it over to the shop for the several hour change-out, it needs to be hauled.

Will that make it still viable when the depreciation on a 10 year old car is taken into account. Some may be fine with the cost outlay because they like their car. Others may see a car that will not be worth that outlay when the car itself may be of less value than the cost of the battery.

[zengineer]

Originally Posted by Axi128

I definitely know that some years from now, they will be everywhere.

Yes, predicting the future is really very easy, the timeline is the hard part. I have been in the automotive and heavy truck arena for 37 years...China currently has dozens of car companies, together selling over a million full electric (BEV) vehicles and another 250 plug in hybrids per year. And that was 2020, the year of the Virus.

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[Cloudchaser]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

It’s happening very quickly but I did just read a report that the environmental footprint of EV and ICE is at parity. Jevons Paradox I suppose.

This is too often overlooked. Conceptually, I'm all in. Practically...

Mostly, EVs are a NIMBY fantasy still. The grid to which they so proudly and loudly plug in is, more often than not, heavily if not wholly reliant on traditional power sources.

The mining of the rare earth minerals needed for batteries in these cars is very much an "out of sight out of mind" phenomenon, with most people excited about EVs never even thinking about it (or the disposal of said batteries at the end of their life).

None of that even touches on the current charging limitations or the fact that current trends suggest that future iterations will be increasingly luxury-oriented (meaning gains in battery technology will be offset and regenerative braking power diminished on heavier cars).

Oh, and I continue to witness mini drag races along PCH, where Tesla bros race ICE bros from red light to red light. That's the environmental spirit at play probably.

When the thing is nuclear powered and fully self-driving, I will camp out for first spot in line.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by Cloudchaser

This is too often overlooked. Conceptually, I'm all in. Practically...

Mostly, EVs are a NIMBY fantasy still. The grid to which they so proudly and loudly plug in is, more often than not, heavily if not wholly reliant on traditional power sources.

The mining of the rare earth minerals needed for batteries in these cars is very much an "out of sight out of mind" phenomenon, with most people excited about EVs never even thinking about it (or the disposal of said batteries at the end of their life).

None of that even touches on the current charging limitations or the fact that current trends suggest that future iterations will be increasingly luxury-oriented (meaning gains in battery technology will be offset and regenerative braking power diminished on heavier cars).

Oh, and I continue to witness mini drag races along PCH, where Tesla bros race ICE bros from red light to red light. That's the environmental spirit at play probably.

When the thing is nuclear powered and fully self-driving, I will camp out for first spot in line.

I agree, however it is the trend that is notable. Right now most of the energy (electricity) that powers EVs comes from conventional power plants that burn fossil fuels; but that is changing. Our state (California) has implemented a tremendous amount of renewable sources like solar and wind, these sources will only expand in the future. I think CA has a goal towards 100% renewable by 2050 (or something like that). So the trend is moving towards “clean” energy.

You are also correct about the batteries and the environment, I believe Lithium is the worst perpetrator; but this will also change. The new solid state batteries (don’t ask me to explain them) are supposed to severely reduce or eliminate the effect on the environment these types of batteries cause.

EVs are the future, love it or hate it, that’s what’s coming. It may not be for 50 years (or more) but someday ICE vehicles will be a novelty.

(50 years from now people may be having the discussion like this of EVs versus Hydrogen vehicles).

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by Tools

Yes, the price has come down into the $5,000 to 10,000 dollar area for a battery. But you can't jump start it to get it over to the shop for the several hour change-out, it needs to be hauled.

Will that make it still viable when the depreciation on a 10 year old car is taken into account. Some may be fine with the cost outlay because they like their car. Others may see a car that will not be worth that outlay when the car itself may be of less value than the cost of the battery.

All true, but I still think it will evolve to be an affordable option. My Hybrid battery is seven years old and soon I will have to make the decision to either get rid of the car or replace the battery. It might not be worth the $5,000-$10,000 you mention, but what if the price of batteries continues to drop, and in another ten years that battery replacement only costs me $1,500? That’s when they become a realistic replacement for the ICE. I would argue an ICE will cost as much if not more at that point in the vehicles life.

[Old Geezer]

Serious question about EVs. How do you do a road trip ? We drive to FL often to visit our parents. It's ~500 miles door to door. We leave early morning and arrive late afternoon in one day. The current batch of EVs don't have the range for this. A hybrid powertrain seems a great alternative to ICE but full on EV seems limited other than daily service where you live and work.

[pickettt]

I saw an electric Mustang on the freeway today. I wasn't aware that they were already being sold.

[Speedbird-1]

Are Ferrari still eschewing full electrification?



A Ferrari, with no soundtrack.
A bit like alcohol free beer, or caffeine free coffee...........what's, the point!

[Blansky]

Originally Posted by Speedbird-1

Are Ferrari still eschewing full electrification?



A Ferrari, with no soundtrack.
A bit like alcohol free beer, or caffeine free coffee...........what's, the point!

I guess you play the sound through your sound system and dream of the good old days.

But I think EVs are faster than ICE cars so there is that.

[Speedbird-1]

Originally Posted by Blansky

I guess you play the sound through your sound system and dream of the good old days.

But I think EVs are faster than ICE cars so there is that.

I think they're quicker, not necessarily faster, and certainly, not for so long.

[CamSLC]

Originally Posted by Old Geezer

Serious question about EVs. How do you do a road trip ? We drive to FL often to visit our parents. It's ~500 miles door to door. We leave early morning and arrive late afternoon in one day. The current batch of EVs don't have the range for this. A hybrid powertrain seems a great alternative to ICE but full on EV seems limited other than daily service where you live and work.

You're completely right. I'm expecting to get an EV delivery later this year and have been thinking about road trips.

abetterrouteplanner.com Lets you add your vehicle, trim/battery, and then uses known charging networks for that specific car or public to plan the drive. Which most EV's have in their onboard NAV.

More common road trip for me, SLC/DEN adds about an hour to the drive. SLC/Las Vegas adds about 45 minutes. So the only answer is, it takes longer. Plan a lunch or some parking lot yoga

I do these trips maybe once a year, so it's really not that big of a deal. My travel schedules are normally pretty flexible.

[Old Geezer]

Originally Posted by Speedbird-1

I think they're quicker, not necessarily faster, and certainly, not for so long.

I bear witness to the quickness. I watched a Tesla model 3 (assume it was a 3, it was the small one) absolutely obliterate a Mustang GT at a stop light race a few weeks ago. The Mustang was loud so presumably it had at least an aftermarket exhaust and maybe some engine mods. The Tesla pulled away from it almost immediately and never stopped extending the lead. About half a block later the Mustang GT threw in the towel

[Speedbird-1]

Originally Posted by Old Geezer

I bear witness to the quickness. I watched a Tesla model 3 (assume it was a 3, it was the small one) absolutely obliterate a Mustang GT at a stop light race a few weeks ago. The Mustang was loud so presumably it had at least an aftermarket exhaust and maybe some engine mods. The Tesla pulled away from it almost immediately and never stopped extending the lead. About half a block later the Mustang GT threw in the towel

Haha, yes. A chastening experience, to be oft repeated in the coming years.

The, shear joy, of out accelerating super-cars with consumate ease, at the, 'Red Light Grand Prix', has been a very familiar occurance to most large engined motorcyle riders, for many, many years.

Ahhh.....happy memories.



PS. Has one of these 'Scalextric' cars ever taken part in a 'Canonball Run'? If so, how'd they get on?........let me guess.

[Blansky]

Originally Posted by Speedbird-1

PS. Has one of these 'Scalextric' cars ever taken part in a 'Canonball Run'? If so, how'd they get on?........let me guess.

I'm sure they haven't done too well in the 24 Hours of Sebring either but comparing a new technology to extreme ICE racing demands seems sort of silly.

Most people's driving habits don't include the Cannonball Run or Daytona or Indy 500. Basically it's commuter driving to work, the store and taxiing the kids to soccer practice with some long distance travel MAYBE thrown in.

I think the automakers will concentrate on the race circuit perhaps at a later date.

[Speedbird-1]

Originally Posted by Blansky

I'm sure they haven't done too well in the 24 Hours of Sebring either but comparing a new technology to extreme ICE racing demands seems sort of silly.

Most people's driving habits don't include the Cannonball Run or Daytona or Indy 500. Basically it's commuter driving to work, the store and taxiing the kids to soccer practice with some long distance travel MAYBE thrown in.

I think the automakers will concentrate on the race circuit perhaps at a later date.

It would be, silly, to disagree with you.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by Speedbird-1

Haha, yes. A chastening experience, to be oft repeated in the coming years.

The, shear joy, of out accelerating super-cars with consumate ease, at the, 'Red Light Grand Prix', has been a very familiar occurance to most large engined motorcyle riders, for many, many years.

Ahhh.....happy memories.



PS. Has one of these 'Scalextric' cars ever taken part in a 'Canonball Run'? If so, how'd they get on?........let me guess.

Originally Posted by Blansky

I'm sure they haven't done too well in the 24 Hours of Sebring either but comparing a new technology to extreme ICE racing demands seems sort of silly.

Most people's driving habits don't include the Cannonball Run or Daytona or Indy 500. Basically it's commuter driving to work, the store and taxiing the kids to soccer practice with some long distance travel MAYBE thrown in.

I think the automakers will concentrate on the race circuit perhaps at a later date.

Hybrid power plants though have been becoming big in the supercar market. Ferrari's newer hybrid's electric engine can be used to make the vehicle essentially AWD. Ferrari was using kinetic technology at the four wheels for a number of years, and effectively was making AWD F1 vehicles artificially. They lost that advantage over the last 10 years though. The new Ferrari Dino looks interesting and based on similar tech.

IMO though fully electric vehicles are a scam. One, can be dangerous see Tesla here and overheating. Two, the amount of energy input units needed to produce the electricity (not to mention the pollution from mining the rare earths) don't make electric really much cleaner at all when peeling back the first layer of the onion. Especially for areas of the world where charging stations are powered by coal powered plants. IMO Hydrogen power is the future, not electric. In the meanwhile, hybrid power plants are a much better solution imo at least.

[Blansky]

Originally Posted by 904VT

IMO Hydrogen power is the future, not electric.

It looks like the world is heading to electric, so how do you see the hydrogen coming on line in the future and how far off. And what are the downsides or problems to overcome.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

I agree, however it is the trend that is notable. Right now most of the energy (electricity) that powers EVs comes from conventional power plants that burn fossil fuels; but that is changing. Our state (California) has implemented a tremendous amount of renewable sources like solar and wind, these sources will only expand in the future. I think CA has a goal towards 100% renewable by 2050 (or something like that). So the trend is moving towards “clean” energy.

You are also correct about the batteries and the environment, I believe Lithium is the worst perpetrator; but this will also change. The new solid state batteries (don’t ask me to explain them) are supposed to severely reduce or eliminate the effect on the environment these types of batteries cause.

EVs are the future, love it or hate it, that’s what’s coming. It may not be for 50 years (or more) but someday ICE vehicles will be a novelty.

(50 years from now people may be having the discussion like this of EVs versus Hydrogen vehicles).

Solar is very interesting, though too expensive today still for wide use. Wind energy imo at least is a scam. I know that may be a bit controversial but besides the visual pollution to the countryside, they are less reliable than portrayed. Texas learned the hard way that wind plants don't work when temperatures go down below thresholds. Wind generally only operates in ideal environments. CA has plenty of nice weather in that sweet spot of 40 to 80 degrees, but wind can be an issue in some places with such diverse terrain.

Regarding hydrogen, I think this is the future. Cost prohibitive now, but there are real running examples out there including some public transit that are currently using. Nothing but good ol' H2O emissions. Stability though of the gas is an issue. A found the BMW 7 series hydrogen concept to be especially interesting.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by Blansky

It looks like the world is heading to electric, so how do you see the hydrogen coming on line in the future and how far off. And what are the downsides or problems to overcome.

Going to take years for widespread use, but has already proven feasible. Hydro Fuel/Gas stability is an issue. Though fully electric is not very stable in the elements either. Though I guess a similar argument could be made for gasoline in an accident. An overheating lithium ion battery on a 100 degree highway though is bad news and can be more spontaneous. At least with the hybrid a smart engine management system will delegate between fuel based and electric based engines. The biggest problem to overcome for hydrogen is the lack of investment imo. Things like carbon credits and allowing them to be resold to polluters contributes to the inefficiency imo too.

Penn State University has been running hydrogen powered vehicles for 20 years or so already with a lot of success.

https://news.psu.edu/story/141828/20...en-future-fuel

[ERH]

It's complicated. The law of unintended consequences. The lawn of diminishing returns. Murphy is out there, alive and kicking. Competing technologies, improved technologies, political winds, tastes, economics. Once upon a time nuclear energy was the darling, is this EVs fate? Not in my backyard mentality. So many poor nations, so many poor people. Expensive darling technologies. EV technology is unlikely to follow Moore's law. Maturity overtakes youthful zeal. etc. etc.

Time is a bitch. And the changeover from the internal combustion and oil and gas which has been and is today a very efficient transportation technology will take decades, many decades. I'm not ready to speculate that the only answer is electric. Except on the golf course.

[TheVTCGuy]

Interesting that a couple posters suggest the future is Hydrogen and not Electricity. I am not disputing this one bit, I kind of think it will be as well. If Hydrogen is the answer, then we should have dedicated all the efforts of implementing electric vehicles in to solving the issues of Hydrogen, we might have a viable Hydrogen vehicle by now. I kind of think electric may be easier to solve(?), but I suspect Hydrogen will be making advances and eventually, replace electric like electric will replace ICE for the majority of vehicles. I have owned Hybrids for 15 years, my next car will be an all electric. I hope someday I’ll buy a Hydrogen.

[texasmade]

Originally Posted by 904VT

Solar is very interesting, though too expensive today still for wide use. Wind energy imo at least is a scam. I know that may be a bit controversial but besides the visual pollution to the countryside, they are less reliable than portrayed. Texas learned the hard way that wind plants don't work when temperatures go down below thresholds. Wind generally only operates in ideal environments. CA has plenty of nice weather in that sweet spot of 40 to 80 degrees, but wind can be an issue in some places with such diverse terrain.

Not quite. Most power was lost due to natural gas plants not being winterized for hard freezes and shutting down. On top of that, you had pipeline companies choosing to shut down flow causing an even bigger gas shortages to plants so they could take advantage of spot prices lead to a total crapfest for several days.

[Haveapair]

Originally Posted by Blansky

We've had this discussion in previous threads. Here's an interesting article and if you read the comments section, some of the same issues....and answers.

Personally I think like the article states it is beginning the unstoppable wave phase that will soon wash over, much like the computer did and will be everywhere sooner that people anticipated, while addressing the negative issues in the same way.

I still think you'll be able to find gas for your classic car to tool around in on weekends but you won't be able to find any new ICE cars on the market.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57...ign=pockethits

Yes combustion engine cars will eventually go the way of the mechanical watch... They will disappear forever