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Old 20 January 2022, 02:39 AM   #31
VegasBaby
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Originally Posted by Koolpep View Post
It always boggles my mind that Rolex produces:

- as many watches than A. Lange & Sôhne and Richard Mille does in a year in one day
- as many watches as Zenith, Blancpain, Vacheron Constantin ,Breguet, Piaget, Glashütte Original produce in a year in one week
- as many watches as F.P. Journe produces in a year in less than half a day…..

https://monochrome-watches.com/top-5...les-editorial/
Not mind boggling at all.......setting aside some quality differences and horology, there is no market for those watches if they were produced in Rolex kind of numbers........unless pricing was drastically reduced!!
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Old 20 January 2022, 02:47 AM   #32
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I think it's much more than that. You are way too generous with the number of working days. The Swiss take weeks off at a time in the summer, if not an entire month, and close down everything. Maybe they leave the machines running while they're gone though. ;)
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Old 20 January 2022, 08:24 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Feb_29 View Post
I heard that producing one Rolex Sub watch end-to-end takes one year?
from design to production Not to make a watch rolex cranks out 900,000 a year
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Old 20 January 2022, 09:19 PM   #34
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I think it's much more than that. You are way too generous with the number of working days. The Swiss take weeks off at a time in the summer, if not an entire month, and close down everything. Maybe they leave the machines running while they're gone though. ;)
You're confusing the Swiss with the French?
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Old 20 January 2022, 09:22 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Feb_29 View Post
I heard that producing one Rolex Sub watch end-to-end takes one year?
Today to those who think that mechanical watches are produced by hundreds of little elves, restlessly filing, smoothing, grinding, polishing watch parts. And that they are made by grey-haired little old watchmakers, sitting bent at their tables for countless hours, somewhere in the Swiss mountains afraid they would be vastly mistaken. Sure there is still a small percentage with the hands on approach but look at the figures 750000- 900000 unit watches a year. And once you have the design for cases, movements etc the robots can churn then out by the thousands. But as only the bare uncased movement are still tested at the COSCn to get the chronometer certification, no winding rotor module,dial, date wheel, now these could be added to the movement to be finished by hand later. This was a past much advertised Rolex quote it takes 12 months to make a Rolex oyster this is what advertisement tries to sell us, but IMHO its light years away from reality and just marketing.{marketing today IMHO is mostly 90% bullst#te and 10%fact}

IMHO in today's, watch production world its now primarily an issue of engineers, computer techs, and metallurgists, various technicians, and specially trained workers. Once you have the design and tooling for vast production,then you can make them by the many thousands. And as the parts are robot machine made, in theory they should be all the same much more easy to get a first time pass rate at COSC, than a movement thats completely hand made, too many variables with a completely hand made movement and just think of the huge extra time cost. IMHO the traditional watchmaking part is all but now the very last thing in modern day mass watch production today. And then only when the movements are fully assembled in case and adjusted and finally checked again on timing machine before packed and shipped world wide.

Quote from a past respected watch magazine.

Rolex launches its large-scale construction the goal of the new Rolex building project is to contain the entire watch movement making process to one building. Most of the parts distribution and much of the movement manufacturing process is totally automated by robotics.
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Old 21 January 2022, 07:11 AM   #36
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Overly simplified calculation below:

8 billion worldwide population.

Assume 1% are watch enthusiasts:

8 billion x 1% = 80 million watch enthusiasts.

Assume 25% of watch enthusiasts want to buy a Rolex:

80 million x 25% = 20 million Rolex demand.

Rolex makes ~ 1 million watches a year.

Looks like a shortage to me.
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Old 21 January 2022, 08:28 AM   #37
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Demand obviously drives market price increase; how an individual gets to the value proposition will vary (rational or irrational whose to say).

A tipping point for me is watches in the case. Will there ever be a time that dealers don’t have enough customers to buy every watch of that model that’s available? That’s why the status quo is good for Rolex in spite of what they wash their hands of. If Rolex just took orders you wouldn’t feel like you were being blessed to be given the chance to buy your 6th Rolex. You would buy when you wanted the watch and you’d spread out your discretionary purchases a bit. Not everyone buys everything they are offered, of course, but they don’t have to go too deep to find accumulators who are also aging the occasional flip.

Nothing lasts forever - but I think it’s going to be a long time before watches appear in cases. Wealth is being created at a faster pace than Rolex is increasing supply.

As for me I still am not certain how I feel about wearing a Rolex. I’ve bought and sold 3 and am currently Rolex-less
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Old 21 January 2022, 10:44 AM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zuger View Post
Overly simplified calculation below:

8 billion worldwide population.

Assume 1% are watch enthusiasts:

8 billion x 1% = 80 million watch enthusiasts.

Assume 25% of watch enthusiasts want to buy a Rolex:

80 million x 25% = 20 million Rolex demand.

Rolex makes ~ 1 million watches a year.

Looks like a shortage to me.
Judging by youtube, the unequal income levels in the world and subjective shop traffic your assumption of 1% watch enthusiasts is more like 0.001% of the male population (and women to a lesser degree) in developed countries and 0.0001% of the total Chinese population.

There is no shortage of any watch, you can buy any model of Rolex with hundreds to choose from in 15 min; provided you have a valid credit card or funds in the bank.

As with every other good or service, You just have to pay the market price.
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Old 21 January 2022, 10:50 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by francoamerican View Post
Demand obviously drives market price increase; how an individual gets to the value proposition will vary (rational or irrational whose to say).

A tipping point for me is watches in the case. Will there ever be a time that dealers don’t have enough customers to buy every watch of that model that’s available? That’s why the status quo is good for Rolex in spite of what they wash their hands of. If Rolex just took orders you wouldn’t feel like you were being blessed to be given the chance to buy your 6th Rolex. You would buy when you wanted the watch and you’d spread out your discretionary purchases a bit. Not everyone buys everything they are offered, of course, but they don’t have to go too deep to find accumulators who are also aging the occasional flip.
This is so true. I just got the call after 3 years wait for a GMT Master ii.
I was at the dealers in 45 minutes to collect it
Did I need the watch? NO WAY. I own one already... I bought it for the fear of missing out and the thrill of the hunt to secure one at MRRP.

Be honest.... how many here are driven by the same primeval drives and not by a true love and desire for the sports model Rolex?
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Old 21 January 2022, 01:24 PM   #40
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This is so true. I just got the call after 3 years wait for a GMT Master ii.
I was at the dealers in 45 minutes to collect it
Did I need the watch? NO WAY. I own one already... I bought it for the fear of missing out and the thrill of the hunt to secure one at MRRP.

Be honest.... how many here are driven by the same primeval drives and not by a true love and desire for the sports model Rolex?
Either way congrats it’s awesome you’re on the inside track. I’d have done exactly the same.
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Old 21 January 2022, 02:00 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by jj312 View Post
I think it's much more than that. You are way too generous with the number of working days. The Swiss take weeks off at a time in the summer, if not an entire month, and close down everything. Maybe they leave the machines running while they're gone though. ;)
I think you’re describing France, not Switzerland. :)
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Old 21 January 2022, 02:04 PM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zuger View Post
Overly simplified calculation below:

8 billion worldwide population.

Assume 1% are watch enthusiasts:

8 billion x 1% = 80 million watch enthusiasts.

Assume 25% of watch enthusiasts want to buy a Rolex:

80 million x 25% = 20 million Rolex demand.

Rolex makes ~ 1 million watches a year.

Looks like a shortage to me.


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Old 21 January 2022, 02:06 PM   #43
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You're confusing the Swiss with the French?
Quote:
Originally Posted by benji2227 View Post
I think you’re describing France, not Switzerland. :)


touché un nerf?

je ne suis pas d'accord avec toi.
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Old 21 January 2022, 02:06 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by subdownunder View Post
This is so true. I just got the call after 3 years wait for a GMT Master ii.
I was at the dealers in 45 minutes to collect it
Did I need the watch? NO WAY. I own one already... I bought it for the fear of missing out and the thrill of the hunt to secure one at MRRP.

Be honest.... how many here are driven by the same primeval drives and not by a true love and desire for the sports model Rolex?

Same here really.

I look at my BLRO and LV and the positive emotions they engender in me are possibly quite likely different from a genuine watch lover.


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Old 21 January 2022, 11:31 PM   #45
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What’s mind boggling is that one doesn’t see that many people wearing Rolex daily. One sees more apple watches.
Apple is closing in on 200 million apple watches sold since 2015. Rolex has sold (assuming 800k a year) 5.6 million.
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