Do we like Rolex scarcity?

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by wiscotrout

So all those half empty cases at AD's are not a problem? Especially in high rent areas where the #1 metric for retail space is $/sqft...If Rolex is different then why did they up production 6% for 2019?

It is not a problem because the reason the cases are empty is that the watches flew out the door with no effort. If you are selling something, would you rather have cases of it sitting around on display for who knows how long, or would you want it to be sold ASAP? Sold ASAP of course.

[MinMay]

Originally Posted by GMT2BATMAN

I would like them to become scarce after I get a Pepsi, hulk, Daytona and a blue SS sky dweller

I see so many kids whining on this forum...when they don't get what they want, they start to cry until you give them the watch. And then they'll flip the watch a month later hahaha. And they'll probably cry when it depreciates in value.

[filsgreen]

Minmay, GMT2BATMAN's, quote sums up the " I'm alright, Jack" generation. Unless of course it was spoken in jest, but I don't see no smiley faces.

[challer]

This

Originally Posted by wiscotrout

My day job is in supply chain, and I work in the retail sector focusing on getting the right product in the right place at the right time, and I can say with no hesitation, that Rolex is lousy at Demand Planning. Literally, if a major brand or retailer missed this badly on a quarterly basis, this consistently, the exec team would be looking for other jobs, even privately held ones. How they seem to get away with it is mind boggling.

I have worked for elite brands and delivered into demanding retailers and it astounds me that they are able to get away with this by their board. People like to dismiss that they are private and are a charity/foundation - but to me - while you do need to protect the long term value of the brand to ensure a sustainable future, the dollars they are leaving on the table is astounding.

If they doubled production of stainless sports watches in lieu of models that don't sell (pick a datejust, the Roselor Yachty, two-tone yellow gold that are abundant in cases and at greys for well below retail), waiting lists would still be in effect and greys would still be out there at almost the same prices and yet they could double sales and profit since their network is essentially a fixed cost. Same for tripling production of steel, though that may be a stretch. I see the same models sitting in dozens of retailers both in the US and globally and lots of empty cases - swtich some to stainless and at least make a dent in the problem.

[challer]

So Mercedes and BMW should limit base models and only have AMG and S version on the lot. Stupidity if this is their thought process.

Originally Posted by oldman2005

That I have been saying all along that this is a Rolex strategy that limits the SS sport production and this strategy has been successful in increasing Rolex revenue by increasing the sale of high profit margin DJ/TT/PM watches. This strategy has been executed for the past 2 years. Since Rolex is vertical company and controls almost all aspect of its productions, it could have easily increased the number SS production in a quarter or two if its really wanted to.

We tend to look at Rolex through the rose glasses but I truly believe SS sport watches were not selling well (2 years ago) and not able to maintain a good competitive/pricing edges to other watch manufactures such as Omega, GS,... Therefore Rolex has moved to a higher price bracket.

[FATO]

Originally Posted by myusernamez

if they were most would not have bought one because it was a bad "investment"

I can't wait for all these watches to come back on the market at half price, in the meanwhile, I am taking my money somewhere else.

And as for scarity -- there can't be scarity when its a mass produced watch which is still in ... production. A fool and his money .. buying an overpriced item which is still being produced which has zero history just begs for a loss of capital down the line. Rolex was known to hold value and slightly increase over time. Best case you lost a few grand but we were all ready for that. Nowadays they doubled in price in 12 months and 90% of the buyers are going to shit their pants once the price goes down 10% .. can't wait to buy it off all of you at MSRP. That's where I'll get my joy. Bring on that Recession, I'll expand my watch, house, car collection buying it off all these people living on credit.

This reminds me of the housing bubble. 2005 is when the feeding frenzy started. Everyone and anyone with some kind of a job can get large loans even multimillion dollar loans to compete in bidding wars for limited houses. Some of these people could only afford to pay interest only on their loans. I bought my house from the bank. It was bank owned because the guy who bought this house has an office cleaning business lost his contract and couldn’t afford the interest payment. He bought it for 1.6 million, i got it for $970,000. There are those who lost their house who is humble and know their financial limits but by pure bad luck they lost their job and then their home. These are the people who don’t deserve it. However there are the greedy people whose want to make a quick buck by flipping houses when they don’t have the financial means to do so deserve to lose everything. I feel the same way about the rolex flippers. I also welcome the recession. It will separate the enthusiast from the flippers.

[Turb0wned]

Originally Posted by mikkolopez

Not a popular suggestion but in our local forum.

The forum admins have started to crack down on sales corners/marketplace by depriving approvals to listings which are pricing 20% or higher than MSRP and limiting number of listing to 3 watches only.
Step in the right direction to limit speculators and greys whose only contribution to a watch forum is a For Sale listing or a Shill when posting SS pieces selling at premium.

If there is no forum for these grey to peddle their wares then the time will come when it does not make sense for them to hoard and ADs to sell backdoor to these greys.


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This would be great if every forum did it.

[ALF61]

Deleted

[ALF61]

Originally Posted by wiscotrout

My day job is in supply chain, and I work in the retail sector focusing on getting the right product in the right place at the right time, and I can say with no hesitation, that Rolex is lousy at Demand Planning. Literally, if a major brand or retailer missed this badly on a quarterly basis, this consistently, the exec team would be looking for other jobs, even privately held ones. How they seem to get away with it is mind boggling.

I have worked for elite brands and delivered into demanding retailers and it astounds me that they are able to get away with this by their board. People like to dismiss that they are private and are a charity/foundation - but to me - while you do need to protect the long term value of the brand to ensure a sustainable future, the dollars they are leaving on the table is astounding.

If they doubled production of stainless sports watches in lieu of models that don't sell (pick a datejust, the Roselor Yachty, two-tone yellow gold that are abundant in cases and at greys for well below retail), waiting lists would still be in effect and greys would still be out there at almost the same prices and yet they could double sales and profit since their network is essentially a fixed cost. Same for tripling production of steel, though that may be a stretch. I see the same models sitting in dozens of retailers both in the US and globally and lots of empty cases - swtich some to stainless and at least make a dent in the problem.

You may have worked for elite brands but you don´t know what goes into producing the hot watches. As if doubling production is as easy or convenient for Rolex.

[ALF61]

Originally Posted by jzhan026

Can't agree more. Although the current situation is certainly attracting more attention from all age groups, I suspect in a few years, we will be left with a much smaller collector community after the fad ends. The reason is that a lot of the new would be long term hobbyists will be burnt out by the end of this price run and will lose all interest in this hobby. This is most evident by the change of meanings of congratulations under incoming threads from "congratulation on achieving a personal goal and rewarding yourself" to "congratulation on winning the dealer game". As unfortunate as it is to say, this hobby is no longer fun for me and probably quite a few others who don't care about watch price appreciation or depreciation after purchase; however, this does not mean I'm willing to pay inflated prices because I still want to pay a fair price for a watch and frankly, none of the SS sports models are worth the inflated prices.

And yet you are devoting a lot of your time to reading and posting at length. This is quite common here I see soo much time spent on useless posts whining about how the current hobby is no good anymore and such....

On a constructive note, I see a new age group starting to develop interest on Rolex, this bodes well for future demand of the watches.

[jezza17]

Too many people are using the market hype for their own gain. I prefer the days when you would walk into an AD and have a pretty good selection of SS sports watches to choose from.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by wiscotrout

So all those half empty cases at AD's are not a problem? Especially in high rent areas where the #1 metric for retail space is $/sqft...If Rolex is different then why did they up production 6% for 2019?

Problem is no one outside the upper echelon of Rolex will ever know whether they upped production 6% or 60% for 2019 because Rolex releases no information. Everything is baseless uninformed rumors.

[JePro]

Originally Posted by Alex71168

If they were freely available then you’d be upset paying a lot for a watch and see the value falling!

good point

[jzhan026]

Originally Posted by ALF61

And yet you are devoting a lot of your time to reading and posting at length. This is quite common here I see soo much time spent on useless posts whining about how the current hobby is no good anymore and such....

On a constructive note, I see a new age group starting to develop interest on Rolex, this bodes well for future demand of the watches.

You just made a whole bunch of assumptions that are both wrong and unintelligent, so I'm not going to delve into them. To each his/her own.

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[minhc88]

I guarantee every/any one who can walk out of an AD purchasing at SS Daytona at MSRP would love the Rolex scarcity going on even more! Its human nature to enjoy knowing you have an exclusive product and also a product that doesn't depreciate as you own/wear it. But for those who can't get the SS model they want, then its a different story.

Also should we really care what prices the grey's post these watches up for? I don't believe the majority of us Rolex lovers/enthusiast are actually buying these hot models at their grey prices (Some one with concrete evidence correct me if 'm wrong please). I believe most of us are able to hold out longer compared to these grey's holding onto their inventory.

[NavalFlight]

Originally Posted by peterskinner

Yes, would members prefer a situation where all .....all.....models were freely available from the local AD? Or is scarcity, and the resulting high residuals, a thing to be desired and welcomed?

Depends on why you buy the watches. If you are simply a fan you’d want as many models available so you don’t have to pay gray prices.

If you are “investing” then you want the scarcity to last as long as possible so that your “investment” doesn’t decrease in value.

[Monty22]

Originally Posted by Monte Cristo

This.

This, this (is that right?). I admittedly like being considered a VIP in situations like this, but the environment brings an element and a mindset that is unsavory. So, all in I do not like it


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[1SG MTB]

I must admit the scarcity adds some allure to me. In a perfect world I would be able to walk into any AD and buy what I want and also have it be hard to find. I think that’s called having my cake and eating it, too!

[Saltzy]

As someone that has been 'into' nice watches, but never earned enough to ever dip my toe into the water until very recently (my first Rolex should arrive today. Bought a 114060 in the marketplace here a few days ago. Hooray!) I find this whole thing fascinating.

I had a Tag I saved up for in college, bought the Breitling I always wanted a few years into my career, and now finally make enough/have saved enough to buy what I always really wanted.

I had no clue any of this stuff was going on until I started looking around and realizing I couldn't find a Sub anywhere. I'm in the NYC area, have never bought a Rolex before and have zero connections. So, my options are really pay the grey market price for a new one, (and whereas I do ok, $1,500-$2k over MSRP is still a decent chunk of change for me. I found a good deal at the current used prices from someone here and pulled the trigger.

So for me personally it seems like I have bought into this madness at the absolute craziest time. I've read many of the posts here and across the net. Watched as many of the YouTube videos as I could.

In my slightly uneducated opinion on this specific topic but as someone that loves to analyze markets and value, I think it's gonna play out one of 2 ways. Either A., like many said this scarcity and high prices turns people that don't really care about watches but just want a Rolex off and they find something else to spend their money on/ people turn to other brands, etc. and there is a serious market correction.....OR this is the new normal Rolex wants, which is what I truly believe. I think Rolex wants to become Richard Mille, but for the masses. I think they want people to have to wait a year for a Sub. I think they wanna be ultra-uber-insanly exclusive and cater to all the newly minted bazillionares out there.

Either way, I plan on wearing my new Sub every day for the rest of my life and figure the worst case is that I just paid like 2X what it might go for if this bubble collapses, which would suck but not be devastating to my life....and the best case is Sub's become an even more iconic, recognized (and hard to acquire) status symbol, and it continues to appreciate like it has the last few years.

As someone with only a moderate amount of skin in the game compared to many of you guys, I'm actually really excited to see how this all plays out.

[James Nye 1982]

Do I want my Subc now, yes.
I am happy to wait 18 months, yes because each day I think about getting the call from the AD saying it is in. Going to the shop, getting it fitted and wearing it for the first time.. Cannot wait!!

[peterskinner]

Brufords in Eastbourne?

[teck21]

I became interested in watches because I had hit a milestone in my life which I wanted to celebrate.

It started with a Tudor I was fortunate enough to get at an AD.

It seemed perfectly natural to me to start off with something from the Rolex family.

I had no idea there was such a scarcity of what I now know are the usual suspects.

But when I became aware of it, Rolex appealed to me even more.

Oh, the challenge...


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[SkyJuice]

Depends on which side of the field you are in.

[ezhukov]

No

[locutus49]

The scarcity principle is very powerful. Luxury objects are not meant for everyone. That sounds inegalitarian but it is a truism.