Watch market and prices

[gordon86]

Been looking to buy my grail watch for a long time and hence following the market quite closely. Prices for most Patek, Rolex and AP watches came down a lot in 2022 2H but seems to have stabilized in the past 1 month.

This is interesting for me because I thought with high interest rates and continual tightening of monetary policy, watch prices will continue to soften (not drop tho) a little in 2023. However, from watching US dealers videos, it seems like prices are stabilizing though they have the incentive to say so :)

My view is prices tend to go up during the W&W period and post Christmas period so this might be it. My prediction is that prices will go down another 5-10% and then really stabilize or rebound.

Keen to get everyone's inputs

[gqmagic]

What is your grail watch?

[Bearxj86]

If you predict prices may go down 5-10% but the prices are somewhat fair, I would just go ahead and make the purchase.

Paying a fair price for a watch is better than missing out due to timing the market. If anyone of us could really time the market, we would be betting everything :)

[Partekular]

I suspect a lot of amateur flippers and grey market inter-dealers got their fingers burnt. They will be talking the market up and calling the large falls a re-set rather than an overdue collapse. Too much money sloshing around and a quaint belief that markets move only upwards.

Out of interest where do folk think they can accurately identify current resale market buying and selling prices?

[Tricolore66]

I think we’re going to see most pieces drop back to 2018-2019 prices, with the exception of Nautilus and Aquanaut models. They’ll drop some but never get back to those numbers. I bought a six month old 5167a full set for $13k in 2017, and got 10% off on a new one. I think a lot of people forget where we were, and it’s not ancient history.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Tricolore66

I think we’re going to see most pieces drop back to 2018-2019 prices, with the exception of Nautilus and Aquanaut models. They’ll drop some but never get back to those numbers. I bought a six month old 5167a full set for $13k in 2017, and got 10% off on a new one. I think a lot of people forget where we were, and it’s not ancient history.

Interesting, my take would be the opposite way around. The pieces that hyped out of all control (Aquanaut & Nautilus) will continue to drop back and the ones that have remained steady throughout will see little variance.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by Partekular

I suspect a lot of amateur flippers and grey market inter-dealers got their fingers burnt. They will be talking the market up and calling the large falls a re-set rather than an overdue collapse. Too much money sloshing around and a quaint belief that markets move only upwards.

Out of interest where do folk think they can accurately identify current resale market buying and selling prices?

Any buyer who got a Patek watch at retail from an AD probably did okay if they opted to sell it for any reason in the last year or so. Good luck to them in getting another watch at retail from their AD, where they can no longer wear the sold watch into the that AD. Stores take big note of that stuff.

[mykii]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Any buyer who got a Patek watch at retail from an AD probably did okay if they opted to sell it for any reason in the last year or so. Good luck to them in getting another watch at retail from their AD, where they can no longer wear the sold watch into the that AD. Stores take big note of that stuff.

I'm happy that the flippers are leaving. Spreads are terrible on resale for most watches still, and progressively fewer and fewer are buying in private transactions (vs. grey dealers) given the risk.

Good riddance.

[codecow]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Any buyer who got a Patek watch at retail from an AD probably did okay if they opted to sell it for any reason in the last year or so. Good luck to them in getting another watch at retail from their AD, where they can no longer wear the sold watch into the that AD. Stores take big note of that stuff.

Huh? If you’re buying Patek you’re probably not a one and done customer, I’ve probably bought 20 pieces at least from them, so unless you sold an application piece or something they’d probably never hear about it.

[HMHM]

It depends when someone sells their Patek. If its within the first year, there is a risk that Patek may be the buyer on the grey market to find out who's the seller and will check with the AD why was the piece resold so quickly. To avoid getting on the bad side of Patek, the customer who flipped the watch is often blacklisted.

From what I have heard, grey dealers are now going around this issue by promising flippers that they will keep the warranty card for 1 year before releasing it to the next buyer but will buy the watch at a lower price. Flippers still get to make a profit while lowering the risk of getting caught flipping. So many creative ideas nowadays to avoid being blacklisted.

[francoamerican]

Markets aren't really down much (only down about 10% from peak 12/31/2021), I have a somewhat alternative investment heavy mix and i'm now even from the 12/31/2021 peak now - so i expect many others are too.

But I'm surprised as high as MSRP on non sports people are grabbing those. The secondary market asking prices are at or below MSRP on just about everything non sports; that means there's no profit in flipping those. My theories as to why people keep buying is:

1. Perhaps people are buying everything they offered because it's fun to buy a watch and it's even more fun when it feels like it doesn't "cost" anything.

2. People are buying to get allocated sports (for love and money)

3. People aren't selling to buy new pieces, since offering prices are low and there's a sense that watches are inevitability going to appreciate and stay in demand. (In practice there's way less net value in a lot of pieces - i asked a dealer about selling my 5296 sector since i thought i might have wanted to switch to a 6119r and i would have been slaughtered on the spread - so if i get one i would just buy but not sell which is somewhat irrational.)

or some combination of the three

(Chrono24 asking prices seems really high, i think part of it is due to the strength of the USD as it gets converted back to USD where I am observing from. A nearly new 5227r just sold for about 23K (including adding the 10% buyer premium) on loupethis.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by francoamerican

Markets aren't really down much (only down about 10% from peak 12/31/2021), I have a somewhat alternative investment heavy mix and i'm now even from the 12/31/2021 peak now - so i expect many others are too.

But I'm surprised as high as MSRP on non sports people are grabbing those. The secondary market asking prices are at or below MSRP on just about everything non sports; that means there's no profit in flipping those. My theories as to why people keep buying is:

1. Perhaps people are buying everything they offered because it's fun to buy a watch and it's even more fun when it feels like it doesn't "cost" anything.

2. People are buying to get allocated sports (for love and money)

3. People aren't selling to buy new pieces, since offering prices are low and there's a sense that watches are inevitability going to appreciate and stay in demand. (In practice there's way less net value in a lot of pieces - i asked a dealer about selling my 5296 sector since i thought i might have wanted to switch to a 6119r and i would have been slaughtered on the spread - so if i get one i would just buy but not sell which is somewhat irrational.)

or some combination of the three

(Chrono24 asking prices seems really high, i think part of it is due to the strength of the USD as it gets converted back to USD where I am observing from. A nearly new 5227r just sold for about 23K (including adding the 10% buyer premium) on loupethis.

Your item #2 is a significant factor I think.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by francoamerican

Markets aren't really down much (only down about 10% from peak 12/31/2021), I have a somewhat alternative investment heavy mix and i'm now even from the 12/31/2021 peak now - so i expect many others are too.

depends on what you're in. blue chips and s&p? sure, likely down 10-15%. tech, startups and more risky assets like crypto which is what was funding watches and fueling the greys? a lot are still down 50-80%. tesla was down 75% just a month ago and amazon is still down 50%, so not sure you can say markets aren't down much. they're still down bad, the s&p just masks the damage because of the way it's weighed

for steel sports watches, there's just too much of a backlog of demand for them to go under retail still but for the PM pieces there's much less people that can afford them now given all the price increases and the fact that anyone using any sort of leverage has been wiped out last year

[francoamerican]

Originally Posted by huncho

depends on what you're in. blue chips and s&p? sure, likely down 10-15%. tech, startups and more risky assets like crypto which is what was funding watches and fueling the greys? a lot are still down 50-80%. tesla was down 75% just a month ago and amazon is still down 50%, so not sure you can say markets aren't down much. they're still down bad, the s&p just masks the damage because of the way it's weighed

for steel sports watches, there's just too much of a backlog of demand for them to go under retail still but for the PM pieces there's much less people that can afford them now given all the price increases and the fact that anyone using any sort of leverage has been wiped out last year

SP500 is cap weighted though, so it's the composition of how people actually have their money in aggregate - effectively it is "the market" in the US. It's possible "wristwatch people" invest differently than the rest of the market though.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by francoamerican

SP500 is cap weighted though, so it's the composition of how people actually have their money in aggregate - effectively it is "the market" in the US. It's possible "wristwatch people" invest differently than the rest of the market though.

yeah the people that were buying watches at multiples of msrp weren't doing it with their gains from the s&p or blue chips, they were doing it using money made from trading risk assets on leverage. if you watch all those youtube grey dealer vlogs you'd often see kids in their 20s buying up the pateks and ROs at crazy prices and they were the ones flipping these pieces left and right also. they weren't just regular high earning individuals in comfortable careers, which is where the remaining demand likely comes from today imo

on the s&p though, today the top 10 companies account for 25% of the index. it's not necessarily the best reflection of the market right now, but generally it is the market like you said. there's just a huge disconnect between the blue chips and everything else today

[beshannon]

This reads like a California psychic reading. Not all prices move together on every watch available.

The OP never even talks about what watch to buy?

[amh]

Don't track Patek or AP but I follow Rolex. Even on moda things have certainly picked up a people are listing multiple fresh (Feb 2023) GMTs for 18.5k or Pandas for 33k and they sell in a matter of hours. Not as crazy as the peak but the Grey market is alive and well.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by amh

Don't track Patek or AP but I follow Rolex. Even on moda things have certainly picked up a people are listing multiple fresh (Feb 2023) GMTs for 18.5k or Pandas for 33k and they sell in a matter of hours. Not as crazy as the peak but the Grey market is alive and well.

I see fresh BLRO at $21k on there. Used is $19.1k.

18K white gold BLRO watch only at $28k.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Bearxj86

If you predict prices may go down 5-10% but the prices are somewhat fair, I would just go ahead and make the purchase.

Paying a fair price for a watch is better than missing out due to timing the market. If anyone of us could really time the market, we would be betting everything :)

This is good advice IMO.

When you’re comfortable with the price it’s the right time to buy.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by amh

Don't track Patek or AP but I follow Rolex. Even on moda things have certainly picked up a people are listing multiple fresh (Feb 2023) GMTs for 18.5k or Pandas for 33k and they sell in a matter of hours. Not as crazy as the peak but the Grey market is alive and well.

It’s because of the lead up to watches and wonders.

[Mathematoxic]

It’s the W&W speculation hype. This year is more intense because it’s the 60th anniversary for the Daytona lineup. I have been tracking 116508s because I’m keen to get one. These watches have seen a growth in prices and taking up rate is much much higher now. I also think that dealers have been artificially hyping up prices. I’ll definitely wait at least 2 months after W&W to see if prices do come down. My guess is it will. Only stainless steel sports and certain dials on PM watches will remain above MSRP.

[fsprow]

I would guess that 99+percent of quality watch buyers have never heard of Watches and Wonders.

[HAPConst]

You guys crack me up. Watching the market in order to buy a watch. Do you over think everything in your life?

[psm11]

Originally Posted by HAPConst

You guys crack me up. Watching the market in order to buy a watch. Do you over think everything in your life?

Not sure why you feel the need to insult people who are doing their due diligence before deciding when to buy watch. Watching the market could end up saving someone 4 figures or more. No one wants to be the guy who bought a Daytona for 50k thinking it was going to go “to the moon” haha—yeahhhhh.

[francoamerican]

Originally Posted by beshannon

This reads like a California psychic reading. Not all prices move together on every watch available.

The OP never even talks about what watch to buy?

This was originally in the patek forum so some context is missing on the OP and the replies. There's been $20K swings in sub 75K non-sports patek in a short period and $60K swings in sports so there's more than a few dollars at stake. I don't believe it's possible to predict equity markets but i do think there's some correlation between equity markets and demand.

[gordon86]

The watch that I have been tracking is the 5270P Salmon Dial for those curious. It had a huge spike in 2022 and I thought I missed out on the watch. It is coming down quickly now but seems to stabilize in the last month. I wonder if I should wait or pull the trigger (which the current price is a huge stretch for me and yes, we cannot time the market but make educated guess which for this watch can be 10-20k)

[BillA]

OP
I would hold out a little longer, the spike up you are seeing is manipulation by our TS people. They are testing the market. Give it some time and you will get your price.

[2loaded]

Originally Posted by BillA

OP
I would hold out a little longer, the spike up you are seeing is manipulation by our TS people. They are testing the market. Give it some time and you will get your price.

Agreed.

[gordon86]

Originally Posted by BillA

OP
I would hold out a little longer, the spike up you are seeing is manipulation by our TS people. They are testing the market. Give it some time and you will get your price.

Thanks for the input! What is TS?

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by gordon86

Thanks for the input! What is TS?

Trusted seller. Namely our forum sponsors.