Should I pull the trigger or not?

[dori]

Hey,

Just received a call this morning and was offered a PP 5711/1a BLUE dial full set new for 64K$ (which I know is double retail) but what do you guys think? The guy is local so I like that idea... and Prices don’t seem to be moving much down on this specific model... should I opt for it or wait for maybe the “craze” to drop a bit?

P.s. this is my grail watch.... so I don’t care oof it’s not an investment, but would feel bad if prices were to go back to retail soon and I paid double...
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[WatchLurv]

B u y i t.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by dori

Hey,

Just received a call this morning and was offered a PP 5711/1a BLUE dial full set new for 64K$ (which I know is double retail) but what do you guys think? The guy is local so I like that idea... and Prices don’t seem to be moving much down on this specific model... should I opt for it or wait for maybe the “craze” to drop a bit?

P.s. this is my grail watch.... so I don’t care oof it’s not an investment, but would feel bad if prices were to go back to retail soon and I paid double...
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Do I read it that this is a new 2019 piece?

[dori]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Do I read it that this is a new 2019 piece?

Yes. And I tried to trim the price off a bit I was told I’m lucky to have a new one at this price (it’s a friend’s connection)

So what should I do ?


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[Ichiran]

It's hard to say.

There were multiple threads in the past 3 years on the pricing of 5711. At that time, some said the 5711 at 40k was the absolute peak, then it became 50k. Then some said there was no way the 5711 is a 50k watch, and now it is being listed at 60-70k range.

If we are all good at prediction, we will be ninja by now. There is only 1 ninja - pls ask him.

[dori]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

It's hard to say.



There were multiple threads in the past 3 years on the pricing of 5711. At that time, some said the 5711 at 40k was the absolute peak, then it became 50k. Then some said there was no way the 5711 is a 50k watch, and now it is being listed at 60-70k range.



If we are all good at prediction, we will be ninja by now. There is only 1 ninja - pls ask him.

He’s not a ninja, he’s the sensei


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[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by dori

He’s not a ninja, he’s the sensei

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Sharing a ninja tip today :
ninja.jpg

[Rushne]

Hmm.

If money is no issue and you really do not want it as an investment, then why not.

I personally wouldn't as I would probably go for a more complicated "off trend" Patek for that price.

[dori]

Originally Posted by Rushne

Hmm.

If money is no issue and you really do not want it as an investment, then why not.

I personally wouldn't as I would probably go for a more complicated "off trend" Patek for that price.

I do like the 5712 a lot ... and understand it goes for pretty much the same price (but also very hard to get) ?


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[Russell996]

Originally Posted by dori

Yes. And I tried to trim the price off a bit I was told I’m lucky to have a new one at this price (it’s a friend’s connection)

So what should I do ?


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Is it the latest version with the new movement? In the current market that would seem to be a good price for an unworn piece - where prices will go is the unknown. I personally think they will go down but you are buying at a reasonable price in the current market.

[MilesB]

If you want it and can afford it, then buy it. It sounds like you do think it's worth $64k, so you won't feel like you've overpaid, and the new blue dials listed on Chrono24 are priced higher.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

It's hard to say.

There were multiple threads in the past 3 years on the pricing of 5711. At that time, some said the 5711 at 40k was the absolute peak, then it became 50k. Then some said there was no way the 5711 is a 50k watch, and now it is being listed at 60-70k range.

If we are all good at prediction, we will be ninja by now. There is only 1 ninja - pls ask him.

Killing me ramen boy

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by dori

I do like the 5712 a lot ... and understand it goes for pretty much the same price (but also very hard to get) ?


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The market is softening. It’s not just watches. Personally I’d slow play it now. Unless it’s a must have I’d wait till premiums come down more.

Hong Kong is in a recession and the Chinese ain’t exactly doing too hot...

If there’s no rush I’d wait.


Grails are grails only when u don’t have it... once u have it... there’s always the next grail. It’s just a watch. Not worth double. And that Grey sealer is buying it in the 45-50 range at the moment. The spread will narrow

[mongrelnomoad]

I wouldn't, but I totally understand if you would.

Not a lot of help, I know, but the point is that this is a very personal decision, and one only you can make. There is no definitively right or wrong answer, and I'm not sure any of us here can help you.

So - for fear of sounding like Celine Dion - go with your heart.

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

The market is softening. It’s not just watches. Personally I’d slow play it now. Unless it’s a must have I’d wait till premiums come down more.

Hong Kong is in a recession and the Chinese ain’t exactly doing too hot...

If there’s no rush I’d wait.


Grails are grails only when u don’t have it... once u have it... there’s always the next grail. It’s just a watch. Not worth double. And that Grey sealer is buying it in the 45-50 range at the moment. The spread will narrow

Ninja, isn't the first rule never to try and time the market? ;)

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

Ninja, isn't the first rule never to try and time the market? ;)

Lol. Thats what they teach in school... it’s not my philosophy

[Flex368]

I wouldn´t buy a 5711 for one single cent above MSRP.

[MadSpaniard]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Grails are grails only when u don’t have it... once u have it... there’s always the next grail.

Wise words indeed... Achieving a grail only sets the bar higher for the next one - and there's always the next one.

Twice MSRP for a 5711 seems like a big pill to swallow. Personally, I wouldn't do it. But I can understand how some people would - once you're in the realm of extravagance, anything goes, and we're all guilty of it to one degree or another.

[rolex_addict]

Seems on par with current market pricing, I say if you love it -> get it!

[Bearxj86]

Buy buy buy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eo-KmOd3i7s

Warren Buffet quote:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

Ninjas have no fear so the point is moot.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

Buy buy buy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eo-KmOd3i7s

Warren Buffet quote:

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

Ninjas have no fear so the point is moot.

Buffet is essentially invested in the cyclical parts of the Us economy... your Patek and rolex craze is essentially China and HK. :)

[ts3]

I'd give it a few months and wait until early 2020. Chances that prices come down 10 or 15k are real (supply continues to increase but prices didn't give much yet), while I don't think prices will drop more any time soon. Chances that prices go up a lot are minimal in my view. If you don't worry about a potential 10 or 15k drop and if you have to have it now you might as well go for it as your price is reasonable at this point in time. But I'd rather wait a few months.

[fidd]

Originally Posted by flex368

i wouldn´t buy a 5711 for one single cent above msrp.

+1

[dori]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

The market is softening. It’s not just watches. Personally I’d slow play it now. Unless it’s a must have I’d wait till premiums come down more.

Hong Kong is in a recession and the Chinese ain’t exactly doing too hot...

If there’s no rush I’d wait.


Grails are grails only when u don’t have it... once u have it... there’s always the next grail. It’s just a watch. Not worth double. And that Grey sealer is buying it in the 45-50 range at the moment. The spread will narrow

Thank you all for commenting, I’m going to take ninja’s (and most of y’all advice) and pass on the pleasure this time. As you said, it’s just a watch, and if it were above retail but not double I would probably go for it... but if I stop for a minute and understand that I’m buying in actual fact 2 5711 and receiving 1, well it’s a bummer innit.

Maybe I will regret this (good chance) but I’ll wait for the next time perhaps.

Thank you all for setting me straight... it’s easy sometimes to get sucked into this craze that has been going on


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[locutus49]

There is one for sale on the forum for 69K. So it is a good current price. A lot depends on your financial situation. If you can easily afford it and it is really your grail - have you tried it on? - then go for it. If it is a lot of money for you, then wait.

[jschmidtdmd]

I would 100% take it. The chance that you'll be able to get a brand new one again at that price is slim to none IMO.

A new 5711 has been around that price for quite awhile (Long before the market went insane).

Anyway, those are my thoughts. I think not taking it is a mistake. You aren't paying 72!

[Flex368]

At 64K I´d try to get a 5905P.

[0315]

a 5711 is a 5711.
I feel much better owning one than looking for one. Since this is the most iconic item PP has I don't think this will EVER become a mass product. Therefore I see "softening" only as a temporary thing, its like a GT3RS in the Porsche world

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by 0315

a 5711 is a 5711.
I feel much better owning one than looking for one. Since this is the most iconic item PP has I don't think this will EVER become a mass product. Therefore I see "softening" only as a temporary thing, its like a GT3RS in the Porsche world

Don't really see the comparison, one is a very limited short term production item and the other is in constant production and has been for years - at some point the demand will be satisfied by the supply.

[locutus49]

True, but Mr. Stern said he will not increase the production of the sports watches, that is not what the Patek brand is about.

SO: increase in population, increase in brand recognition worldwide, increase in affluence, and stable production. My math says demand will always outpace supply.

Originally Posted by Russell996

Don't really see the comparison, one is a very limited short term production item and the other is in constant production and has been for years - at some point the demand will be satisfied by the supply.