Should I pull the trigger or not?

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by locutus49

True, but Mr. Stern said he will not increase the production of the sports watches, that is not what the Patek brand is about.

SO: increase in population, increase in brand recognition worldwide, increase in affluence, and stable production. My math says demand will always outpace supply.

If the piece continues to be the 'it' watch then yes. Personally I don't think this is very likely, the nature of being 'it' is that you can just as quickly be 'not it'.

The big difference with the Nautilus compared to the GT3RS analogy is that anyone prepared to wait can get a 5711 at list, the list price of a new piece will always be a factor in the decision to pay 2.5x list - as demonstrated by this thread.

[0315]

the GT3RS is nothing short term! There is always a new GT3RS. There is always the next super rare pista wtf.
And usually, you don't get one if you don't have a history...same stuff as 5711, Daytona,...

[tng11]

I wouldn't.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Russell996

If the piece continues to be the 'it' watch then yes. Personally I don't think this is very likely, the nature of being 'it' is that you can just as quickly be 'not it'.

Totally agree. The 5711 will lose its fashion-item status if and when the next big thing comes around the corner. It may be a few years out but demand will drop when people start lusting for sth else. Not that I can see anything on the horizon just yet. RM would have potential but while the Nautilus is within in reach for many, most RMs are not.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by 0315

the GT3RS is nothing short term! There is always a new GT3RS. There is always the next super rare pista wtf.
And usually, you don't get one if you don't have a history...same stuff as 5711, Daytona,...

You are right - the 'next' GT3RS/GT2RS, CS/Scud/Speciale/Pista etc. Not the same piece which can be bought at list if you are prepared to wait - and you will eventually get one without a purchase history if you are happy to wait.

[0315]

Originally Posted by Russell996

You are right - the 'next' GT3RS/GT2RS, CS/Scud/Speciale/Pista etc. Not the same piece which can be bought at list if you are prepared to wait - and you will eventually get one without a purchase history if you are happy to wait.

not sure where you are going with this...
you will not get a pista without history. you will not get a 5711 without history.
if you want either one now, you have to pay on top.
if you want either one later or ever, you have to be a costumer and buy other stuff to get in the "inner circle"

to me this is exactly the same logic.

anyway, back to topic: if the TO wants 5711 now only he can decide how much he is willing to spend on top and if this is justifying his purchase.
To me it looks like 5711 gets more popular the more people hear about the run (like a 911 *73RS or 964RS ) but maybe I'm wrong and prices will drop. At the end its an individual decision to wait lets say 12 months. So far, 5711 has performed very well. Its not sky-rocking anymore, but its far away from depreciating...

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by 0315

not sure where you are going with this...
you will not get a pista without history. you will not get a 5711 without history.
if you want either one now, you have to pay on top.
if you want either one later or ever, you have to be a costumer and buy other stuff to get in the "inner circle"

to me this is exactly the same logic.

Not going anywhere with this, you are simply comparing apples to oranges.

[0315]

Ok, you have 996.. Please apologize

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by 0315

Ok, you have 996.. Please apologize

Loved my 996.

[ma.st.]

I always think of it this way: am I comfortable with the price right now? If yes then I move to my next question. If the thing depreciates (most things do) by $XX over YY years, am I comfortable and happy basically paying that average amount each year to have experienced ownership of that item? If so, then no one needs to know what I paid in the current market. Buy and wear (and drive) what you enjoy. When you are done enjoying it or can no longer justify owning it, pass it along. Sometimes you get deals and sometimes you give deals. I call it "enthusiast karma." I have a good friend in another hobby who paid his dues so to say, made the connections sincerely and was surprised with 2 unobtainium pieces. We're talking there isn't even a waitlist and the individual making the item does not care about money. People have gifted this builder cash, gold, cars etc (literally!) just to get on his list and this guy could not care less. He dictates his craft to those he believes in within the community, simple as that. My friend is not lucky and didn't spend exorbitant money. He just had good enthusiast karma : )

[jag32]

Total rip off. Unless money is absolutely no object whatsoever and you’re a member of the Saudi royal family, then buying this watch for that price is pure insanity.

[SL BRABUS]

Just make sure there no rust on the bracelet......

[Uros]

I wouldnt. As a matter of principle probably and afraid I would be disappointed for premium I paid once i wear it for a while. For 65k there are many really nice options...


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[bob101]

If you've got your heart set on that model go for it if you have the cash. I'd probably go for 5712 at that kind of price however. There's also a fair chance it's discontinued soon and harder to get as well as more expensive later on.

[APAP]

Might as well throw money down the toilet.

Not worth that much. It’s a 3 hand steel watch. There are tons of better options out there at that price point, to name a few:

- AP PC @ 60k
- Datograph at 55k
- patek 5905P
- patek 5170p at 70k

But then I never go with the flow.

[locutus49]

The same people who bashed the Aquanaut bash the 996. Here is me with mine, now sold.

Originally Posted by Russell996

Loved my 996.

[AK797]

Tough to pay double retail but if the watch is a true grail then you are taking a risk not buying it.

[Mr Naultilus]

Can we just mention the man or person, who's bought it just for the intention of flipping it

In this day and age not sure whether to praise you, or dis like you

[ct.matt]

Just came across a listing for a mint 2018 one for $62K. You can buy me a nice dinner, I just waved you serious $$$

[MichaelFlash]

I don't think I could ever bring myself to pay over msrp for anything. The rare times I have paid msrp for a watch I have usually regretted...

[vtsyrlin]

This is a typical thread that keeps on reappearing on a monthly basis
The same people that say "No" now also said "No" when 5711 was selling for 45k late last year.
I say - go for it! If you have the means and want the watch, why wait?

[Codik]

It’s just a watch, and a grail stops being a grail as soon as you get it. Do what makes you happy - only you know the answer. I’d wait - in fact I am currently doing just that.

[PPFANBOY]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

The market is softening. It’s not just watches. Personally I’d slow play it now. Unless it’s a must have I’d wait till premiums come down more.

Hong Kong is in a recession and the Chinese ain’t exactly doing too hot...

If there’s no rush I’d wait.


Grails are grails only when u don’t have it... once u have it... there’s always the next grail. It’s just a watch. Not worth double. And that Grey sealer is buying it in the 45-50 range at the moment. The spread will narrow

Solid advice.

I would also wait, only because the price is on a downward trend. If they were holding value, different story.

It's not like you'll have to wait a long time.

[Keldw]

If I didn’t have one I would jump on it. Btw, a HK grey just offered 68K for a 2016 5711.


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[GGGMT]

Recession coming soon. People gonna dump key premium pieces. I think. But I’m just a working stiff so what the hell do I know.


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[Calatrava r]

Why throw this much money on what was a 23K watch at retail just last year. The hype and premiums are this model are nuts. For this much money buy a Grand Complication. For the same money you can get a 3940P, winding box, second back and full papers. You are not far off a 5170P. Patek is known for its complicated treasures. The PP sports watch- simple movement mania will wane at some point in a big way. It still exists because of supply dynamics. If the overall watch market softens further, PP will have to increase steel sport models.

[Michael T]

Wait. The economy is cooling, car sales are peaking, US mortgage spreads are widening, yield curve is inverted, Hong Kong protests continue and the Iran/Saudi thing will not end well. Also, there are more than a few posts on issues with the 5711 bracelet, I would wait.

[spoon-turbo]

When you look at the watch... or the dial, does it feel/look like a 64k watch to you? Personal decision.

[Token74]

I normally tell people not to stress about paying over list and that life is too short. But, people should only do it if they accept prices may fall, and in that scenario wouldn’t have any regret.

You’ve indicated that it would bother you if prices fell and you’d paid over list, and as such should probably pass.


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[Dayhvac]

I would wait. Your time will come.